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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Early Career: First-Principles Tools for Nonadiabatic Attosecond Dynamics in Materials

The overarching goal of this project was to develop computer tools for predicting how electrons move in molecules and solids at the attosecond (billionth-of-a-billionth of a second) time scale, during and after interaction with intense and/or high energy laser light. An associated goal was to also determine how X-ray spectroscopy could be used as a probe of these dynamics. The project resulted in multiple methodology developments that allow for these processes to be simulated from first-principles, most notably the use of small bulk-mimicking clusters to model solids and fixes for a deficiency in a commonly used method (time-dependent density functional theory). Additionally, the simulations showed that X-ray absorption peaks can be directly related to the electron density above the absorbing atom, and can thus be used as an intuitive probe of "where the electrons are" at a given time in the system. Collectively, these tools and results expected to be valuable for predicting and interpreting future attosecond experiments, especially for X-ray pump/probe studies at free-electron laser facilities.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection Effect in Dark Energy Survey Y1

The discovery that the Universe expansion is accelerated poses one of the most profound mysteries in physics. Cosmic acceleration could be a sign of the fact that General Relativity breaks down on cosmological scales and has to be replaced, or it could arise from an unknown form of energy that currently dominates our Universe. That is what we call dark energy and in this case the problem moves to the discovery of its nature. Dark Energy Survey aims to study the nature of dark energy and to test General Relativity and cosmological models. The cluster analysis of the first run of DES leads to results which are incomparable with what other surveys have obtained. In particular it turns out that the matter density of the Universe is $Ω_m = 0.179^{+0.031}_{−0.038}$, very different from the 0.3 value expected. In this work we build a procedure that can be followed in order to understand whether the solution of DES Y1 problem could be a selection effect or not.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A spatially-resolved model of neutron-irradiated tungsten coupling stochastic cluster dynamics and finite deformation plasticity

Structural materials used in nuclear reactors face severe degradation in mechanical properties, such as hardening and embrittlement. At the microscopic scale, this occurs due to creation and accumulation of irradiation-induced defects and their interaction with system dislocations. Although techniques exist which can model evolution of irradiation defects, for instance kinetic transport theory-based models, their interaction with mechanical deformation of the bulk material has not been investigated extensively. In this work, we demonstrate a novel spatially-resolved multiscale coupling between microscopic irradiation defect evolution, modeled using Stochastic Cluster Dynamics (SCD) and macroscopic mechanical deformation modeled using a finite-deformation plasticity model. SCD is used to determine the statistically averaged defect cluster spacing, dependent on operating conditions such as irradiation dose and temperature. This acts as an initial condition that governs the critical resolved shear stress of dislocation glide in the macroscopic plasticity model. This framework is used to predict mechanical behavior in post-mortem test of irradiated Tungsten samples, which has found its importance as structural material used in nuclear reactors. The results obtained using the coupled approach are in good agreement with experimental data of uniaxial tension tests. The model is able to capture the effect of temperature and irradiation dose on the material hardening. Two methods are proposed to estimate hardness – using Tabor's Law relating uniaxial yield stress to hardness and from flat-punch simulations. The results are in reasonable agreement with hardness data from micro-indentation experiments of irradiated Tungsten samples. Finally, the model is also able to reveal microstructural details such as spatial variation in defect density and local stress.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dark matter substructure or source model systematics? A case study of cluster lens Abell S1063

Mapping the small-scale structure of the universe through gravitational lensing is a promising tool for probing the particle nature of dark matter. Curved Arc Basis (CAB) has been proposed as a local lensing formalism in galaxy clusters, with the potential to detect low-mass dark matter substructure. In this work, we analyse the cluster lens Abell S1063 in search of dark matter substructure with the CAB formalism, using multiband imaging data from James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ). We use two different source modelling methods: shapelets and pixel-based source reconstruction based on Delaunay triangulation. We find that source modelling systematics from shapelets result in a disagreement between CAB parameters measured from different filters. Source modelling with Delaunay significantly alleviates this systematic, as seen in the improvement in agreement across filters. We also find that inadequate complexity in source modelling can result in convincing spurious detections of dark matter substructure from strong gravitational lenses, as seen by our $\Delta \text{BIC} > 20$ measurement of a $M \sim 10^{10}$ ${\rm M}_{\odot }$ subhalo with shapelets, a spurious detection that is not reproduced with Delaunay source modelling. We demonstrate that multiband analysis with different JWST filters is key for disentangling source and lens model systematics from dark matter substructure detections.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing distributed GPU computing for generalizable graph convolutional networks in power grid reliability assessments

Although machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for rapidly assessing grid contingencies, prior studies have largely considered a static grid topology in their analyses. This limits their application, since they need to be re-trained for every new topology. Here, this paper explores the development of generalizable graph convolutional network (GCN) models by pre-training them across a range of grid topologies and contingency types. We found that a GCN model with auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) layers with a line graph representation of the grid offered the best predictive performance in predicting voltage magnitudes (VM) and voltage angles (VA). We introduced the concept of phantom nodes to consider disparate grid topologies with a varying number of nodes and lines. For pre-training the GCN ARMA model across a variety of topologies, distributed graphics processing unit (GPU) computing afforded us significant training scalability. The predictive performance of this model on grid topologies that were part of the training data is substantially better than the direct current (DC) approximation. Although direct application of the pre-trained model to topologies that are not part of the grid is not particularly satisfactory, fine-tuning with small amounts of data from a specific topology of interest significantly improves predictive performance. In general, this paper highlights the feasibility of training large-scale GNN models to assess the reliability of power grids by considering a wide variety of grid topologies and contingency types. With the advent of foundational models in ML and the exponential increase in GPU computing clusters, generalizable ML models will significantly enhance how utilities manage power systems and make decisions in real-time or near-real-time.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2026

In situ molecular imaging of ion clusters reveals the acid gas capture capacity and mechanism of water-lean ionic liquids

Water-lean solvents are a promising technology for capturing acid gases like carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In situ liquid time-of-flight secondary ionization mass spectroscopy (ToF-SIMS) is used to study a representative solvent N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine (2-EEMPA) with different CO 2 loadings to reveal the complex solvent structure upon CO 2 capture. Characteristic peaks of 2-EEMPA, such as m/z – 215 C 11 H 23 N 2 O 2 – (deprotonated 2-EEMPA) and m/z + 217 C 11 H 25 N 2 O 2 + (protonated 2-EEMPA), are detected due to acid gas uptake. Also, solvent molecules and carboxylate ion pairs, such as m/z – 259 C 12 H 23 N 2 O 4 – [(deprotonated 2-EEMPA∙∙∙CO 2 )] and m/z + 261 C 12 H 25 N 2 O 4 + (protonated 2-EEMPA∙∙∙CO 2 ), are observed. Interestingly, more than one CO 2 molecule can be captured per each solvent molecule as evidenced in SIMS mass spectra, for example, m/z – 321 C 13 H 25 N 2 O 7 – [(deprotonated 2-EEMPA)∙∙∙2CO 2 ∙∙∙H 2 O], m/z + 305 C 13 H 25 N 2 O 4 + [(protonated 2-EEMPA)∙∙∙2CO 2 ], m/z – 389 C 17 H 29 N 2 O 8 – [(deprotonated 2-EEMPA)∙∙∙3CO 2 ∙∙∙3CH 2 ], and m/z + 373 C 16 H 25 N 2 O 8 + [(protonated 2-EEMPA)∙∙∙3CO 2 ∙∙∙2C]. However, the monomer of 2-EEMPA and CO 2 seems to be most prevalent. Furthermore, solvent clusters are detected in loaded solvents, for instance m/z + 433 C 22 H 49 N 4 O 4 + [(2-EEMPA)2∙∙∙H] and m/z + 646 [(2-EEMPA) 3 -2H], while capturing CO 2 at different amounts. Relative abundance of cluster ions provides a semi-qualitative venue to assess the free energies of gas capture energetics, indicating the relative stability trend within the same solvent system, previously impossible. These observed ion clusters are verified with molecular modeling, where dimer, trimer, and cluster ions are validated for their presence either due to weak molecular interactions or hydrogen bonds. In situ molecular imaging of ionic liquids and molecular modeling reveals that the acid gas capture mechanism by ionic liquids includes both physical adsorption and chemical bonding with multiple reaction pathways, engaging cluster formation and alteration of solvent structures.

Acid gas capture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Electrification Using Renewable Energies: Microgrid Installation Model with Combined Mixture k-Means Clustering Algorithm, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, and Onsset Method

Optimal planning and design of microgrids are priorities in the electrification of off-grid areas. Indeed, in one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7), the UN recommends universal access to electricity for all at the lowest cost. Several optimization methods with different strategies have been proposed in the literature as ways to achieve this goal. This paper proposes a microgrid installation and planning model based on a combination of several techniques. The programming language Python 3.10 was used in conjunction with machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning based on K-means clustering and deterministic optimization methods based on mixed linear programming. These methods were complemented by the open-source spatial method for optimal electrification planning: onsset. Four levels of study were carried out. The first level consisted of simulating the model obtained with a cluster, which is considered based on the elbow and k-means clustering method as a case study. The second level involved sizing the microgrid with a capacity of 40 kW and optimizing all the resources available on site. The example of the different resources in the Togo case was considered. At the third level, the work consisted of proposing an optimal connection model for the microgrid based on voltage stability constraints and considering, above all, the capacity limit of the source substation. Finally, the fourth level involved a planning study of electrification strategies based mainly on microgrids according to the study scenario. The results of the first level of study enabled us to obtain an optimal location for the centroid of the cluster under consideration, according to the different load positions of this cluster. Then, the results of the second level of study were used to highlight the optimal resources obtained and proposed by the optimization model formulated based on the various technology costs, such as investment, maintenance, and operating costs, which were based on the technical limits of the various technologies. In these results, solar systems account for 80% of the maximum load considered, compared to 7.5% for wind systems and 12.5% for battery systems. Next, an optimal microgrid connection model was proposed based on the constraints of a voltage stability limit estimated to be 10% of the maximum voltage drop. The results obtained for the third level of study enabled us to present selective results for load nodes in relation to the source station node. Finally, the last results made it possible to plan electrification using different network technologies and systems in the short and long term. The case study of Togo was taken into account. The various results obtained from the different techniques provide the necessary leads for a feasibility study for optimal electrification of off-grid areas using microgrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alternative CNDOL Fockians for fast and accurate description of molecular exciton properties

CNDOL is an a priori, approximate Fockian for molecular wave functions. In this study, we employ several modes of singly excited configuration interaction (CIS) to model molecular excitation properties by using four combinations of the one electron operator terms. Those options are compared to the experimental and theoretical data for a carefully selected set of molecules. The resulting excitons are represented by CIS wave functions that encompass all valence electrons in the system for each excited state energy. The Coulomb–exchange term associated to the calculated excitation energies is rationalized to evaluate theoretical exciton binding energies. This property is shown to be useful for discriminating the charge donation ability of molecular and supermolecular systems. Multielectronic 3D maps of exciton formal charges are showcased, demonstrating the applicability of these approximate wave functions for modeling properties of large molecules and clusters at nanoscales. This modeling proves useful in designing molecular photovoltaic devices. Our methodology holds potential applications in systematic evaluations of such systems and the development of fundamental artificial intelligence databases for predicting related properties.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

First-principles and cluster expansion study of the effect of magnetism on short-range order in Fe–Ni–Cr austenitic stainless steels

Short-range order (SRO), the regular and predictable arrangement of atoms over short distances, alters the mechanical properties of technologically relevant structural materials such as medium/high entropy alloys and austenitic stainless steels. In this study, we present a generalized spin cluster expansion (CE) model and show that magnetism is a primary factor influencing the level of SRO present in austenitic Fe-Ni-Cr alloys. The spin CE consists of a chemical cluster expansion combined with an Ising model for Fe-Ni-Cr austenitic alloys. It explicitly accounts for local magnetic exchange interactions, thereby capturing the effects of finite temperature magnetism on SRO. Model parameters are obtained by fitting to a first-principles data set comprising both chemically and magnetically diverse FCC configurations. The magnitude of the magnetic exchange interactions are found to be comparable to the chemical interactions. Compared to a conventional implicit magnetism CE built from only magnetic ground state configurations, the spin CE shows improved performance on several experimental benchmarks over a broad spectrum of compositions, particularly at higher temperatures due to the explicit treatment of magnetic disorder. We find that SRO is strongly influenced by alloy Cr content, since Cr atoms prefer to align antiferromagnetically with nearest neighbors but become magnetically frustrated with increasing Cr concentration. Using the spin CE, we predict that increasing the Cr concentration in typical austenitic stainless steels promotes the formation of SRO and increases order-disorder transition temperatures. Furthermore, this study underscores the significance of considering magnetic interactions explicitly when exploring the thermodynamic properties of complex transition metal alloys. It also highlights guidelines for customizing SRO through adjustments of alloy composition.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selecting samples of galaxies with fewer Fingers-of-God

The radial positions of galaxies inferred from their measured redshift appear distorted due to their peculiar velocities. We argue that the contribution from stochastic velocities — which gives rise to `Fingers-of-God' (FoG) anisotropy in the inferred maps — does not lend itself to perturbative modelling already on scales targeted by current experiments. To get around this limitation, we propose to remove FoG using data-driven indicators of their abundance that are local in nature and thus avoid selection biases. In particular, we show that the scale where the measured power spectrum quadrupole changes sign is tightly anti-correlated with both the satellite fraction and the velocity dispersion, and can thus be used to select galaxy samples with fewer FoG. In addition, we show that excluding galaxies in haloes more massive than a given mass threshold can help to discard many of the most problematic galaxies. Such selection could be achieved in practice using maps of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich distortion of the cosmic microwave background frequency spectrum. These techniques could potentially improve reconstructions of the large-scale velocity and displacement fields from the redshift-space positions of galaxies. They may also extend the reach of perturbative models for galaxy clustering, though in practice we find only marginal gains when fitting one-loop EFTofLSS models to simulations with mitigated FoG due to the relevance of other effects entering at two-loop order.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coherency-Constrained Spectral Clustering for Power Network Reduction

This paper presents a methodology for reducing the complexity of large-scale power network models using spectral clustering, aggregation of electrical components, and cost function approximation. Two approaches are explored using unconstrained and constrained spectral clustering to determine areas for effective system reduction. Once the system areas are determined, both loads and generators by type are aggregated, and their new cost function is approximated through polynomial curve-fitting or statistical methods. The performance of reduced networks is evaluated in terms of their ability to follow the true daily cost of the original system over a 24-hour period considering a set of several days. Two test systems are taken as test beds. Application of the methodology to a modified version of the IEEE 39-bus system reduces it from 17 generators to a 4-bus system and 9 generators with about 93% of accuracy. Similarly, the IEEE 118-bus system is reduced from 19 generators to a 3-bus system with three aggregated units achieving over 99% of accuracy. These findings address scalability challenges and enhance accuracy for high and mid-loading level conditions, and by aggregating thermal units with similar cost functions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A generalizable machine learning-assisted fast Fourier transform algorithm to simulate the large strain phenomena in polycrystalline materials

Machine learning methods have shown initial promise in constitutive modeling for single crystals or homogenized polycrystals, delivering notable computational efficiency. However, existing machine learning-based constitutive models often lack generalizability, limiting their application across diverse boundary value problems. This study introduces a thermodynamics-informed artificial neural network model to accelerate rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform simulations for cross-scale deformation behaviors of polycrystals under complex loading. Our model integrates microstructural variability and local interactions effectively. To address local effects in each grain, we employ K-means clustering to group Gauss points within the microstructure into clusters assumed to be in similar mechanical states. This approach, based on self-clustering analysis, extends model scope from macroscopic stress response to the granular level, capturing mechanical responses and orientation evolution across grains. This reduces the number of nonlinear problems to solve, with cluster responses propagated throughout each group. The thermodynamics-based artificial neural network-extracted features are further processed using local material state clusters to account for history-dependent deformation and evolving microstructures. Additionally, representative volume element simulations with rate-tangent crystal plasticity fast Fourier transform provide reliable datasets for model training. The proposed model demonstrates high efficiency, accuracy, self-consistency, and enhanced generalizability in predicting strain–stress responses and orientation evolution at both individual grain and aggregate scales under complex loading conditions, such as biaxial tension and arbitrary loading scenarios.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection function of clusters in Dark Energy Survey year 3 data from cross-matching with South Pole Telescope detections

Context. Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. However, modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by noncluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). Aims. We empirically constrained the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy Survey data with the redMaPPer algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). Methods. For matched clusters, we augmented the redMaPPer catalog with the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we used the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multiwavelength data, we explored various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Results. Our analysis reveals a clear preference for models with an additional skewed scatter component associated with projection effects over a purely log-normal scatter model. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge that requires a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and scripts associated with “Moisture content modulates DOM thermodynamic regulation of oxygen consumption in drying streambed sediments”

This data package is associated with the publication “Moisture content modulates DOM thermodynamic regulation of oxygen consumption in drying streambed sediments” published in Scientific Reports (Garayburu-Caruso et al., 2026). The package contains processed data products and scripts used to quantify how drying and re-inundation of riverbed sediments influence dissolved organic matter (DOM) thermodynamic properties and their relationship with sediment oxygen (O₂) consumption across 33 stream sites in the contiguous United States. The data package contains DOM thermodynamic metrics (e.g., Gibbs free energy of carbon oxidation and thermodynamic efficiency), and O₂ consumption along with watershed-scale climate and land-cover metrics used as explanatory variables in the analyses. Underlying unprocessed and processed ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry data, oxygen consumption rates from laboratory moisture-manipulation experiments, within-sample environmental properties, sediment moisture content and contextual field measurements are archived separately at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2428003 (Laan et al., 2024) and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689 (Forbes et al.,2023). A preliminary version of this data package was published in February 2026 at the time of manuscript submission. It was updated in June 2026, at the time of manuscript acceptance, to include the finalized data and additional metadata (readme, data dictionary, and file level metadata). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. At the top level, the data package is organized into five main folders: (1) Data, (2)Figures, (3) Map, (4) GAM_Reulsts, and (5) src. The Data folder contains analysis-ready tabular files with oxygen consumption rates, DOM thermodynamic properties by site and treatment, site-level environmental variables, watershed-scale metrics, and other derived variables referenced in the manuscript. The Figures folder contains static image files associated with the main text and supplemental figures, while the Map folder includes spatial data and map-layer files used to create the sampling-location map. The GAM results folder contains the results for each of the general additive model (GAM).The src folder contains R scripts used to perform data processing, statistical analyses (including clustering, generalized additive models, and threshold analysis), and figure generation. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository found at https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ECA_DOM_Thermodynamics.

Dissolved organic matter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Frequentist cosmological constraints from full-shape clustering measurements in DESI DR1

We present a frequentist analysis of clustering measurements from Data Release 1 of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) using the standard profile likelihood method. While Bayesian inferences for effective field theory models of galaxy clustering can be highly sensitive to prior choices for extended cosmological models, frequentist inferences are not susceptible to such effects. We compare frequentist and Bayesian constraints for the parameter set {σ 8 , H 0 , Ω m , w 0 , w a } using the full-shape power spectrum multipoles, post-reconstruction baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements, and external datasets from the CMB and type Ia supernovae measurements. The frequentist confidence intervals are significantly shifted relative to the Bayesian credible intervals for the w 0 w a CDM model, unless supernovae data are included. When DESI full-shape and BAO data are fit jointly, we obtain the following 1σ frequentist confidence intervals for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM): σ 8 = 0.863 +0.048 -0.040 , H 0 = 68.96 +0.81 -0.80 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.3034 ± 0.0110 (σ 8 = 0.782 +0.060 -0.036 , H 0 = 63.7 +4.2 -2.0 km s -1 Mpc -1 , Ω m = 0.378 +0.024 -0.047 , w 0 = -0.16 +0.10 -0.50 , w a = -3.0 +1.7 ), corresponding to 0.8σ, 0.3σ, 0.7σ (2.1σ, 4.1σ, 6.5σ, 6.3σ, 6.6σ) shifts between the maximum likelihood estimate and the Bayesian posterior mean for ΛCDM (w 0 w a CDM) respectively.

Bayesian reasoning↗