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At least 667 records · Page 37

Attribution of gamma-ray background collected by a mobile detector system to its surroundings using panoramic video

Mobile radiation detector systems are important tools for detecting radiological and nuclear sources outside of regulatory control, but due to their mobility, they are subject to complex and varying backgrounds in most realistic operational scenarios. Recent work has found correlations between non-radiological contextual information and gamma-ray spectral features that can be used to decrease false alarm rates, however a more complete understanding of background source terms has been elusive. A measurement campaign developed a full radiological characterization of a controlled facility that roughly corresponded to two city blocks. As part of the campaign, the Radiological Multi-sensor Analysis Platform (RadMAP) collected extensive multi-sensor data. In this work, RadMAP’s panoramic video data were used to visually identify several different materials and quantify the detector response to each material. A linear model was fit between the material responses and radiological features, and the results demonstrate reasonable agreement with ground truth flux measurements for each material. This paper will describe the data collection, processing, and analysis of the gamma-ray and video data from RadMAP. The paper will conclude with perspectives on the applicability of such a method to less controlled environments both with respect to achieving better understanding the sources of variability of background radiation in urban environments and whether such methods could be leveraged in operational scenarios.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Towards multi-fidelity deep learning of wind turbine wakes

We report engineering wake models that accurately predict wake in a computationally efficient manner are very important for tasks such as layout optimization and control of wind farms. In this paper, we explore an application of deep learning (DL) to learn the wake model from hierarchies of physics-based approaches ranging from analytical models to an approximate form of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. We first illustrate the application of principal component analysis to obtain a lower-dimensional representation that allows a computationally tractable training and deployment of DL models. Then, the DL model is trained to learn the mapping from input parameter space to the principal components, which are then used to reconstruct the three-dimensional flow field. Additionally, we investigate a composite framework consisting of two neural networks to learn the correlation between low- and high-fidelity data with Gauss and curl models treated as proxies for low- and high-fidelity models, respectively. The prediction from both DL models matches well with the high-fidelity data with a maximum relative percentage error for the kinetic energy flux of <1%. This work opens up possibilities for data-efficient construction of surrogate models for wake prediction that can be used to study the influence of wind speed and yaw angles on wind farm power production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mapping canopy defoliation by herbivorous insects at the individual tree level using bi-temporal airborne imaging spectroscopy and LiDAR measurements

Defoliation by herbivorous insects is a widespread forest disturbance driver, affecting global forest health and ecosystem dynamics. Additionally, compared with time- and labor-intensive field surveys, remote sensing provides the only realistic approach to mapping canopy defoliation by herbivorous insects over large spatial and temporal scales. However, the spectral and structural signatures of defoliation by insects at the individual tree level have not been well studied. Additionally, the predictive power of spectral and structural metrics for mapping canopy defoliation has seldom been compared. These critical knowledge gaps prevent us from consistently detecting and mapping canopy defoliation by herbivorous insects across multiple scales. During the peak of a gypsy moth outbreak in Long Island, New York in summer 2016, we leveraged bi-temporal airborne imaging spectroscopy (IS, i.e., hyperspectral imaging) and LiDAR measurements at 1m spatial resolution to explore the spectral and structural signatures of canopy defoliation in a mixed oak-pine forest. We determined that red edge and near-infrared spectral regions within the IS data were most sensitive to crown-scale defoliation severity. LiDAR measurements including B70 (i.e., 70th bincentile height), intensity skewness, and kurtosis were effectively able to detect structural changes caused by herbivorous insects. In addition to canopy leaf loss, increased exposure of understory and non-photosynthetic materials contributed to the detected spectral and structural signatures. Comparing the ability of individual sensors to map canopy defoliation, the LiDAR-only Ordinary Least-Square (OLS) model performed better than the IS-only model (Adj. R-squared = 0.77, RMSE = 15.37% vs. Adj. R- squared = 0.63, RMSE = 19.11%). The IS+LiDAR model improved on performance of the individual sensors (Adj. R-squared = 0.81, RMSE = 14.46%). Our study improves our understanding of spectral and structural signatures of defoliation by herbivorous insects and presents a novel approach for mapping insect defoliation at the individual tree level. Furthermore, with the current and next generation of spaceborne sensors (e.g., WorldView-3, Landsat, Sentinel-2, HyspIRI, and GEDI), higher accuracy and frequent monitoring of insect defoliation may become more feasible across a range of spatial scales, which are critical for ecological research and management of forest resources including the economic consequences of forest insect infestations (e.g., reduced growth and increased mortality), as well as for informing and testing of carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural Hazards Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is about the state of ICON principles Goldman et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO153180 in natural hazards and a discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Natural hazards pose risks to society, infrastructure, and the environment. Hazard interactions and their cascading phenomena in space and time can further intensify the impacts. Natural hazards’ risks are expected to increase in the future due to environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate risks to inform the design and implementation of risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Multihazard multisector risk management poses several nontrivial challenges, including: (a) integrated risk assessment, (b) Earth system data-model fusion, (c) uncertainty quantification and communication, and (d) crossing traditional disciplinary boundaries. Here, we review these challenges, highlight current research and operational endeavors, and underscore diverse research opportunities. We emphasize the need for integrated approaches, coordinated processes, open science, and networked efforts (ICON) for multihazard multisector risk management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced surface urban heat islands due to divergent urban-rural greening trends

Abstract Satellite observations show that the surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) has been increasing over the last two decades. This is often accompanied by an increased urban-rural contrast of vegetation greenness. However, the contribution of uneven vegetation trends in urban and rural areas to the trend of SUHII is unclear, due to the confounding effects of climate change and changes in man-made infrastructures and anthropogenic heat sources. Here we use a data-model fusion approach to quantify such contributions during the peak growing season. We show that the LAI dif (the urban-rural difference of leaf area index) is increasing ( P < 0.05) in 189 of the selected 228 global megacities. The increasing trend of LAI dif from 2000 to 2019 accounts for about one quarter of the trend in satellite-derived SUHII, and the impact is particularly evident in places with rapid urbanization and rural cropland intensification. The marginal sensitivity of SUHII to LAI dif is the strongest in hot-humid megacities surrounded by croplands and in hot-dry megacities surrounded by mixed woody and herbaceous vegetation. Our study highlights the role of long-term vegetation trends in modulating the trends of urban-rural temperature differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fusing geophysical signatures of locally recorded surface explosions to improve blast detection

We recorded acoustic, seismic and radio-frequency signatures of 70 solid charge (~2–12 kg) surface explosions (shots) at local distances (0.1–1.5 km) to determine if such signals could be fused for blast monitoring. We observed that each geophysical signature was sufficiently repeatable between similar shots to be identifiable with multichannel correlation detectors. Using template signals from a large explosion, we then processed heavily contaminated data recording a smaller shot with these detectors, and missed or marginally detected the resultant target signals. By then fusing the p-values of these statistics through Fisher's combined probability test, we clearly identified the same explosion signals at thresholds consistent with the false alarm on noise rates of the correlation detectors. This resulting Fisher test thereby provided high-probability detections, zero false alarms and higher theoretical detection capability.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Distributed wireless sensing for fugitive methane leak detection

Large scale environmental monitoring requires dynamic optimization of data transmission, power management, and distribution of the computational load. In this work, we demonstrate the use of a wireless sensor network for detection of chemical leaks on gas oil well pads. The sensor network consist of chemi-resistive and wind sensors and aggregates all the data and transmits it to the cloud for further analytics processing. The sensor network data is integrated with an inversion model to identify leak location and quantify leak rates. We characterize the sensitivity and accuracy of such system under multiple well controlled methane release experiments. It is demonstrated that even 1 hour measurement with 10 sensors localizes leaks within 1 m and determines leak rate with an accuracy of 40%. This integrated sensing and analytics solution is currently refined to be a robust system for long term remote monitoring of methane leaks, generation of alarms, and tracking regulatory compliance.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Real-Time Distribution System State Estimation with Asynchronous Measurements

We report state estimation is a fundamental task in power systems. Although distribution systems are increasingly equipped with sensing devices and smart meters, measurements are typically reported at different rates and asynchronously; these aspects pose severe strains on workhorse state estimation algorithms, which are designed to process batches of data collected in a synchronous manner from all the measurement units. In this paper, we develop a novel state estimation algorithm to continuously update the estimate of the state based on measurements received in an asynchronous manner from measurement units. The synthesis of the algorithm hinges on a proximal-point type method, implemented in an online fashion, and capable of processing measurements received sequentially from sensors. A performance analysis is presented by providing bounds on the estimation error in terms of the mean and variance that hold at each iteration and asymptotically. The scheme is also compared with a more traditional Weighted Least Squares estimator that compensates for the lack of measurement data by using, as pseudo measurements, the measurement retrieved during a certain time window. Numerical simulations on the IEEE 37-bus feeder corroborate the analytical findings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

General-Purpose Unsupervised Cyber Anomaly Detection via Non-Negative Tensor Factorization

Distinguishing malicious anomalous activities from unusual but benign activities is a fundamental challenge for cyber defenders. Prior studies have shown that statistical user behavior analysis yields accurate detections by learning behavior profiles from observed user activity. These unsupervised models are able to generalize to unseen types of attacks by detecting deviations from normal behavior, without knowledge of specific attack signatures. However, approaches proposed to date based on probabilistic matrix factorization are limited by the information conveyed in a two-dimensional space. Non-negative tensor factorization, on the other hand, is a powerful unsupervised machine learning method that naturally models multi-dimensional data, capturing complex and multi-faceted details of behavior profiles. Herein, our new unsupervised statistical anomaly detection methodology matches or surpasses state-of-the-art supervised learning baselines across several challenging and diverse cyber application areas, including detection of compromised user credentials, botnets, spam e-mails, and fraudulent credit card transactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evolution patterns and parameter regimes in edge localized modes on the National Spherical Torus Experiment

We implement unsupervised machine learning techniques to identify characteristic evolution patterns and associated parameter regimes in edge localized mode (ELM) events observed on the National Spherical Torus Experiment. Multi-channel, localized measurements spanning the pedestal region capture the complex evolution patterns of ELM events on Alfven timescales. Some ELM events are active for less than 100~microsec, but others persist for up to 1~ms. Also, some ELM events exhibit a single dominant perturbation, but others are oscillatory. Clustering calculations with time-series similarity metrics indicate the ELM database contains at least two and possibly three groups of ELMs with similar evolution patterns. The identified ELM groups trigger similar stored energy loss, but the groups occupy distinct parameter regimes for ELM-relevant quantities like plasma current, triangularity, and pedestal height. Notably, the pedestal electron pressure gradient is not an effective parameter for distinguishing the ELM groups, but the ELM groups segregate in terms of electron density gradient and electron temperature gradient. The ELM evolution patterns and corresponding parameter regimes can shape the formulation or validation of nonlinear ELM models. Finally, the techniques and results demonstrate an application of unsupervised machine learning at a data-rich fusion facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Neutron Gamma LAMP Software version 1

The Localization and Mapping Platform (LAMP) software fuses radiation and contextual data to produce 3-D maps that locate and identify gamma-ray emitting sources in complex environments. It enables data collection, fusion, and processing onboard the LAMP system in handheld configurations, and enables near-real-time 3-D mapping from onboard an unmanned aerial system (UAS). This software enables a real-time 3-D gamma-ray mapping capability that is not available commercially. This software disclosure is for a new simultaneous gamma-ray and neutron mapping software update to the original LAMP software.

Cates, Joshua↗

Localization and Mapping Platform Software (LAMP) v3

The Localization and Mapping Platform (LAMP) software fuses radiation and contextual data to produce 3-D maps that locate and identify gamma-ray emitting sources in complex environments. It enables data collection, fusion, and processing onboard the LAMP system in handheld configurations, and enables near-real-time 3-D mapping from onboard an unmanned aerial system (UAS). This software enables a real-time 3-D gamma-ray mapping capability that is not available commercially.

Joshi, Tenzing↗

Localization and Mapping Platform Software (LAMP Software) v1

The Localization and Mapping Platform (LAMP) software fuses radiation and contextual data to produce 3-D maps that locate and identify gamma-ray emitting sources in complex environments. It enables data collection, fusion, and processing in near-real-time and on-board in several configurations, including handheld and unmanned aerial system (UAS) form factors.

Haefner, Andrew↗

Multi-Phenomenology Explosion Monitoring (Multi-PEM). Signal Detection. Research to target smaller sources for tomorrow’s missions

This a guide on how to detect and identify explosions from various sources. For example, nuclear explosions produce acoustic, optical, and EMP outputs. Each signal can be buried in noise, but fusing detection statistics from seismic, acoustic, and electromagnetic signals results in clear detection otherwise unobtainable.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗