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At least 361 records · Page 20

Data-driven Resilience Characterization of Control Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we define and quantify resiliency of a power network and propose data-driven algorithms for computing the same for the power grid. To do this, we use the Koopman operator framework to lift the controlled dynamical system to an abstract (possibly higher) dimensional space, where the evolution is linear. The linear system representation allows us to relate small time local controllability and observability of a general nonlinear control system to the controllability and observability of the lifted linear system. Finally, we define the resiliency of the underlying power grid in terms of the controllability and observability gramians of the lifted linear system. We illustrate the proposed approach to compute the resiliency metrics on time-series data obtained from a microgrid.

koopman operator, resilience, control↗

CIE Curriculum Guide (V.2.0)

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Curriculum Guide offers a comprehensive framework, guidance, and resources for integrating CIE into university-level engineering programs and related educational activities. The primary goal is to help educators adopt CIE principles into their teaching to produce future engineers and technicians who understand digital risks in modern engineered systems, thereby addressing the nation’s infrastructure resilience needs. This guide outlines practical integration examples, links to resources to accelerate CIE adoption, and shares insights from partner academic institutions on various implementation strategies. CIE is a framework for embedding engineered controls that mitigate the impact of cyber-attacks in any cyber-physical system used in critical energy infrastructure and other sectors. Developed by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Emergency Response (CESER), the National Cyber-Informed Engineering Strategy emphasizes embedding CIE into formal education, training, and credentialing. This guide supports this strategic objective by providing examples of integrating CIE concepts into engineering curricula, from class activities to new courses and certificate programs. The importance of educating cyber-informed engineers is underscored by the evolving cybersecurity threats facing engineered systems. As industrial control systems (ICS) increasingly incorporate digital technologies, the responsibility for security extends to both cyber professionals and engineers. CIE addresses critical gaps in designing and protecting physical systems with digital components against cyber risks, ensuring engineers consider digital risk throughout the engineering design lifecycle. Currently, engineering education does not routinely include cyber-informed principles, highlighting a gap in addressing modern engineering system risks. This guide advocates for updating engineering curricula to include digital risk management as a fundamental element. By doing so, future engineers will be equipped to design resilient systems that mitigate digital risks from the outset. Through this guide, engineering faculty can integrate CIE into their curricula, bridging the gap between digital risk and engineering. This approach prepares a cyber-informed workforce capable of safeguarding the cyber-physical systems crucial to national security and public welfare. By embedding CIE into education and training, institutions can produce engineers and technicians who can effectively mitigate cyber impacts throughout the engineering design lifecycle, resulting in more secure critical infrastructures.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Essence2.0 Development and Deployment (Final Report)

The objective of the project was to take two core technologies that have been developed under the Recipient’s solid laboratory products and integrate them into a single CyberPhysical awareness platform and complete development on current field-tested prototypes that will extend the integrated capability of the platform. During the final development phase, the Recipient development team and its selected industry partners tested and hardened the platform to ensure resilient and secure operation of the integrated platform. The team also executed substantial field testing and established the framework for defining the organization and/or commercial infrastructure needed to sustain operations and provide readiness for a national scale deployment. The focus of the project was (1) the improvement, refinement, and deployment of technology for the detection of cyber-attacks on utility operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT) networks and assets, including Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Systems (SCADA) systems; and (2) support for containment and remediation of adversarial threats and actions against those systems and environments.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures

Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures: Guidance Designed for Federal Agencies (hereafter referred to as “this report”) provides a technical framework for federal agencies to conduct a life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for water efficiency projects in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 8253. This report leverages insights from the 2023 report, PNNL-34006, Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities Across the United States: 2023 Edition (Unger et al. 2023). The primary objective of this report is to provide a framework to assist federal agencies with evaluating the full economic impact of water efficiency projects by assessing both initial investments and long-term operational benefits. An LCCA can provide a comprehensive view of all costs associated with a water efficiency project, including initial investment, ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M), and eventual disposal or replacement, ensuring the most cost-effective solution is selected. The LCCA methodology outlined in this report enables users to compare base case scenarios with potential alternatives using a standardized present value approach. It incorporates key cost components such as energy, water and wastewater, installation, O&M, and equipment replacement. Additionally, the framework introduces relevant evaluation metrics, such as the net savings and the savings-to-investment ratio, to ensure that water efficiency measures are economically justified over the lifespan of the project. To support practical application, this report also describes various water efficiency strategies that may be analyzed using an LCCA, including plumbing retrofits, irrigation upgrades, alternative water use, and cooling system improvements. By applying this framework, federal agencies can ensure compliance with regulatory mandates while maximizing the return on investment and contributing to resilient water management practices. The information provided in this report is aligned with the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) life-cycle cost (LCC) methodology, as conveyed in National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Handbook 135 (Kneifel and Webb 2022). This report is intended to provide relatively high-level guidance, acting as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, that resource.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Radio Afterglow Detection and AI-driven Response (RADAR): A Federated Framework for Gravitational-wave Event Follow-up

The landmark detection of both gravitational waves (GWs) and electromagnetic (EM) radiation from the binary neutron star merger GW170817 has spurred efforts to streamline the follow-up of GW alerts in current and future observing runs of ground-based GW detectors. Within this context, the radio band of the EM spectrum presents unique challenges. Sensitive radio facilities capable of detecting the faint radio afterglow seen in GW170817, and with sufficient angular resolution, have small fields of view compared to typical GW localization areas. Additionally, theoretical models predict that the radio emission from binary neutron star mergers can evolve over weeks to years, necessitating long-term monitoring to probe the physics of the various postmerger ejecta components. These constraints, combined with limited radio observing resources, make the development of more coordinated follow-up strategies essential—especially as the next generation of GW detectors promises a dramatic increase in detection rates. Here, we present RADAR, a framework designed to address these challenges by promoting community-driven information sharing, federated data analysis, and system resilience, while integrating AI methods for both GW signal identification and radio data aggregation. We show that it is possible to preserve data rights while sharing models that can help design and/or update follow-up strategies. We demonstrate our approach through a case study of GW170817, and discuss future directions for refinement and broader application.

Gravitational waves↗

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Irrigated Agriculture; Crop Model; Hydrologic Mode↗

Beneficial CHP – Is that a Thing? Considering CHP in the Context of Beneficial Electrification

For decades, combined heat and power (CHP) has been promoted and embraced as a cost-effective technology for meeting on-site thermal and electric needs more efficiently and with fewer emissions than separate procurement of those resources. But climate change concerns are leading to a reevaluation of CHP’s benefits. Significantly, natural gas, the most common fuel for CHP and until recently regarded as an environmentally preferable “bridge fuel” in the energy transition to renewables, is increasingly being reexamined amid calls for deep decarbonization and emerging clean energy policies that limit the use of natural gas. Given this trend, electrification has gained traction as a net zero carbon energy strategy. With natural gas being a preferred fuel for CHP, policymakers and others are beginning to question CHP’s role in a cleaner, more electrified future. However, CHP fueled by low carbon fuels such as renewable natural gas and hydrogen may be a more viable path to decarbonizing industrial processes that are difficult to electrify due to technology limitations or cost, and for applications where energy resilience is a critical requirement. This paper seeks to add clarity to a complex issue. It offers a framework for assessing industrial applications where natural gas CHP will provide significant GHG reductions in the near term and provide a more economic and practical path to deep decarbonization in the long term through a transition to low carbon fuels.

Hedman, Bruce↗

A hierarchical framework for aggregating grid-interactive buildings with thermal and battery energy storage

The behind-the-meter (BTM) thermal and battery energy storage can help improve energy efficiency, reduce energy costs, and enhance energy resilience, particularly in rural areas and for disadvantaged communities. Aggregating numerous BTM energy storage systems can act as a price influencer with a significant source of load shifting and peak demand reduction. An integrated and scalable control mechanism is required to effectively utilize energy storage systems and flexible building loads to maximize the economic benefits, considering various distribution system constraints. Here, this paper presents an innovative hierarchical coordination framework for energy storage and flexible load in buildings, considering various factors such as electricity prices, thermal comfort, and distribution system modeling and constraints. At the upper level, a distribution system operator optimizes the power flow to minimize its power procurement costs from the electricity wholesale market, while at the lower level, aggregators determine the optimal dispatch of battery and thermal energy storage systems in multiple buildings on behalf of end-users to minimize operating costs according to the power prices. These problems are solved using a game-theoretic approach through negotiations between the distribution system operator and aggregators as a bi-level decision model. Simulation case studies have been performed for a test distribution network with a number of building end-users using energy storage systems to quantify the performance of aggregators. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy can reduce peak load for a reliable electricity distribution network while saving electricity bills for customers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

Hydropower remains one of the strongest forms of renewable energy generation methods. It is crucial to address the increasing risks associated with the rapid digitization. The push towards decarbonization also factors in the need to ensure security and resilience for grid-connected renewable energy resources. This report summarizes the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office's effort to develop a cybersecurity valuation methodology that assists hydropower stakeholders in assessing risks associated with plan operations and gathers valuation guidance through a web-based application. The Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework delivers a platform for industry members to perform self-assessments and make informed decisions on their cybersecurity investments.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework

Hydropower remains one of the strongest forms of renewable energy generation methods. It is crucial to address the increasing risks associated with the rapid digitization. The push towards decarbonization also factors in the need to ensure security and resilience for grid-connected renewable energy resources. This report summarizes the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office's effort to develop a cybersecurity valuation methodology that assists hydropower stakeholders in assessing risks associated with plan operations and gathers valuation guidance through a web-based applicaiton. The Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework delivers a platform for industry members to perform self assessments and make informed decisions on their cybersecurity investments.

CVF↗

Architecture for Quantum-in-the Loop Real-Time Simulations for Designing Resilient Smart Grids

With the power grid growing more complex every day with the inclusion of new sensors and regulatory approvals that enable end-users and small local developers to participate in the grid, it is becoming challenging for conventional smart grid simulation, emulation, and testing technologies to keep up. In this work, we propose that quantum-encoded real-time simulations can be helpful under the new paradigm and operational circumstances to solve optimization problems for power grids. By leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics, the proposed quantum-in-loop (QIL) framework will enable better and faster optimization solutions based on real-world, real-time data streams, facilitating the real-time planning and operations of electrical grids that rely on millions of distributed sensors and controllers. Furthermore, QIL will allow researchers and engineers to assist utilities in designing, developing, and de-risking algorithms to optimize power grid operation and resilience by considering inputs from millions of grid-connected devices. QIL framework is being developed to have a self-limiting triage mechanism, which will help engineers and practitioners identify fundamental physical limits on quantum processors, revealing what quantum algorithms can and cannot do in utility-specific use cases and must continue to count on classical high-performance computing infrastructure.

digital real-time simulation↗

The Value of Distributed Wind: A Valuation Framework

While there has been an increase in distributed energy resource (DER) adoption, particularly for solar photovoltaic (PV) DERs, distributed wind deployment is still relatively low. However, distributed wind has significant growth potential for behind-the-meter applications and can provide improved resource diversity and resilience in high-DER grid systems. In order to make optimized decisions about distributed wind deployment, it is important to identify and characterize the value streams of distributed wind in a way that will help policy makers, microgrid developers, utilities, project developers, and others understand the potential value of distributed wind. In our paper, we develop a framework to provide a consistent and comprehensive approach to finding the net benefits of distributed wind to various stakeholders in different scenarios. We do this by considering the main use cases for distributed wind, and then developing a framework which is flexible for these various use cases and the relevant stakeholders while maintaining the same overall structure for analysis. Ongoing work includes applying this framework to valuing two distributed wind power systems, one in a remote village in Alaska and one in a front-of-the-meter deployment in Iowa. Our analysis aims to understand the full value that distributed wind is providing in these systems, including the resilience benefits it is contributing. As a better understanding of distributed wind valuation is gained, it will be easier for stakeholders to make informed decisions in order to have resilient renewable energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Analyzing Land Characteristics Associated with Historical Large-Scale Solar Photovoltaic Deployment in the United States

Large-scale solar (LSS) deployment has accelerated rapidly across the United States, yet comprehensive understanding of its siting patterns remains limited. Here, we present a national-scale geospatial assessment of land characteristics converted for LSS development and apply statistical analyses to evaluate whether installations are disproportionately concentrated within specific land types. We find that siting patterns are strongly correlated with high solar irradiance, underscoring the role of resource quality in shaping deployment decisions. LSS projects are disproportionately concentrated on agricultural lands and shrubland. Within agricultural areas, installations predominantly occur on croplands and are strongly associated with irrigated systems. Notably, more than 90% of projects are deployed on agricultural land with Productive, Versatile, and Resilient (PVR) index values of land quality exceeding the national median. These findings highlight the need for strategic siting frameworks that reconcile solar development with the conservation of agriculturally valuable land.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Load Matching Potential of Urban Renewables during Extreme Heat in New York City

Integration of renewable resources to meet growing energy demand is becoming a global priority under decarbonization mandates. This study contributes to ongoing efforts on the matter by assessing the feasibility of using offshore wind and rooftop photovoltaic systems to meet electricity demand during a period of thermal stress in New York City—August 2019. A unified modelling framework, based on the Urbanized Weather Research and Forecasting model, is used to simulate climate, renewable resources and energy demand variables. Findings show significant energy load miss-match, ranging from 3 to 5 GW, between the demand and the composite renewable generation outcome. This study provides a transferable framework for evaluating renewable integration in dense urban regions and highlights the need for additional strategies to support grid resilience during extreme heat events, while clarifying the role of local resources in fully managing NYC’s load.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementing Artificial Thinking Autonomy with Model-Based System Engineering

Complex autonomous systems capable of successfully operating independently under ‘known unknowns’ and harsh conditions require paradigm innovation in modern development strategies. In the field of autonomy, developing a system-of-systems which can ostensibly think for itself in the face of ‘unknown unknowns’ is still a field of ongoing research. Maturing the systems architecting and modeling methodologies for developing henceforth named Thinking Autonomous Systems, which are verified with digital mission simulation, can potentially usher in the next generation of artificial intelligence for space exploration. The concept presented in this paper incorporates multiple Model-Based Systems Engineering and simulation methodologies combined as a new paradigm to design a novel, biomimetic thinking autonomy strategy. Anachronistic concepts from classical Kantian philosophy will be leveraged to inspire architectural designs that could be used for complex distributed systems in deep space. To accomplish this, digital transformation of a document-based implementation plan for Thinking Autonomous Systems, generated by experienced NASA software engineers, is implemented for NASA’s Platform for Autonomous Systems by creating descriptive and executable software models in SysML to prototype real-time operating capabilities. This conceptual implementation has been developed by incorporating model-based digital simulations to theorize how a cyberphysical thinking system would achieve specific strategies without crew reliance, while simultaneously being resilient to all operating conditions and remaining functional when devoid of ground communication. Additionally, ensuring that an autonomous system framework is an ethical Artificial Intelligence requires careful consideration of system behavior and accountability, human factors for teaming with a thinking autonomous system, and comparison to other modern approaches used for implementing true autonomy. This paper presents the first steps in formalizing the metacognition required for instantiating a truly Thinking Autonomous System; the approach described symphonizes autonomy characteristics from classical philosophical into a unified software architecture describing human thought. In the future, the foundational models described in this paper can be further leveraged to help advance research into thinking autonomy requirements for future deep space missions as well as for current near-term applications, i.e., living aboard crewed spacecraft like a NASA Gateway cislunar habitat.

Artificial Thought↗

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Nonlinearities in Magnetic Confinement, Ionospheric Physics, and Population Explosion Leading to Profile Resilience Нелінійності в магнетному утриманні, фізиці іоносфери та процесі демографічного вибуху, які приводять до стійкості профілю

Nonlinearities play an important role in many fields. In the field of thermonuclear fusion, they are involved in questions such as profile resilience and fluid closure. A nonlinear phenomenon common to both fusion and astrophysical planets is the generation of zonal flows. These flows play a significant role in determining the level of turbulence and fluid closure in fusion. The effects of resonance broadening and nonlinearities are investigated, specifically focusing on the case of nonlinear instability that has appeared in drift waves. Similarities and differences between our systems are discussed, with population explosion and the dynamics of nonlinear systems for drift waves by different states in profile resilience described with great precision. The aim of our study is to put our fluid model for drift waves in tokamaks within the wider framework of statistical physics principles. This reinforces our belief in the broad application of our drift wave model, which encompasses current tokamaks, ITER, and the fusion pilot plant.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗