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Model Spread in Tropical Low Cloud Feedback Tied to Overturning Circulation Response to Warming

Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.

Atmospheric dynamics

An Overview of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulated Cloud Ice, Radiation Fields, Surface Wind Stress, Sea Surface Temperatures and Precipitation over Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

The potential links between ice water path (IWP), radiation, circulation, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans resulting from the falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) are examined from present day model outputs of CMIP5 and CMIP6. The latter is divided into two subsets with (SON6) and without FIREs (NOS6) as more models with FIREs are included in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. Improvement in floating cloud ice (~20 g m-2) is noticeable over convective regions in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5. The inclusion of FIREs in SON6 subset may contribute to reduce biases of overestimated outgoing longwave radiation and downward surface shortwave and overestimated reflected shortwave at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by magnitudes of 4?8 W m-2 over convective regions against CERES, compared to NOS6 subset. The reduced biases in radiative fluxes in convective regions stabilize the atmosphere and lead to circulation, SST, cloud and precipitation changes over the trade-wind regions, as seen from improved radiative fluxes (4?15 W m-2), surface wind stress biases, SST (0.2?0.8 K) and precipitation (1 mm day-1) biases. The significant improvement from NOS6 to SON6 leads to improved multi-model means for CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 for radiation fields over the trade wind regions but the degradation over convective zones is attributed to NOS6 subset. The results suggest that other sources of uncertainty and deficiencies in climate models may play significant roles for reducing discrepancies although FIREs, via radiation-circulation coupling, may be one of the factors that help to reduce regional biases.

Jui-Lin F Li

Aerosol-deep convection interaction based on joint cell-thermal tracking in Large Eddy Simulations during the TRACER campaign

In cumulus clouds, aerosol concentrations control cloud droplet concentrations, modifying cloud radiative properties, precipitation processes, and cloud electrification. However, mechanisms of aerosol-deep convection interactions are not well understood due to complex cloud dynamics and microphysics. We investigate the interaction of aerosols with isolated deep convection using Large Eddy Simulations of two cases during the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) near Houston, Texas, using a joint cell-thermal tracking algorithm. Cumulus thermals are droplet generators, since supersaturation and droplet nucleation coincide with thermal centers, where the strongest updrafts occur. Primary ice crystal formation does not take place inside thermals, but at layers where previous thermals detrained moisture. As subsequent thermals containing supercooled droplets penetrate these layers, hail and graupel form at or near these thermals. Higher aerosol concentrations result in higher droplet concentrations that suppress drizzle, delay warm rain processes, and transport more moisture aloft. This increases snow and ice amount, as well as graupel and hail, leading to more lightning. Polluted thermals initiate at slightly higher altitudes, and are slightly larger and faster, suggesting a weak invigoration. We also find more thermals per cell, but fewer isolated cells, since convection is more aggregated and intense, especially near the end of the 24 h simulation. Non-linear mesoscale feedback likely triggered by temperature and moisture responses to aerosol-thermal interactions causes the aggregation. Time-lagged aerosol-reinitialization experiments show that the mesoscale response is the predominant forcing for the invigoration. These changes happen within one day, on a smaller scale than previously suggested.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE)

Results are reported of the Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE) aboard the USML-1 (first United States Microgravity Laboratory) Spacelab which was launched on June 25, 1992. In the experiment 10 cSt silicone oil was placed in an open circular container which was 10 cm wide by 5 cm deep. The fluid was heated either by a cylindrical heater (1.11 cm dia.) located along the container centerline or by a CO 2 laser beam to induce thermocapillary flow. The flow field was studied by flow visualization. Several thermistor probes were placed in the fluid to measure the temperature distribution. The temperature distribution along the liquid free surface was measured by an infrared imager. Tests were conducted over a range of heating powers, laser beam diameters, and free surface shapes. In conjunction with the experiments an extensive numerical modeling of the flow was conducted. In this paper some results of the velocity and temperature measurements with flat and curved free surfaces are presented and they are shown to agree well with the numerical predictions.

S Ostrach

The glass-ceiling convective regime and the origin and diversity of coronae on Venus

Venus and Earth are rocky planets of roughly the same size and bulk density, yet their surface volcanic and tectonic features appear substantially different. On Venus, the coexistence of large volcanic highlands—interpreted as the surface expression of long-lived mantle plumes—alongside coronae, smaller features thought to be caused by transient thermal diapirs, remains enigmatic. Using two-dimensional numerical models of mantle convection with sharp and broad mineral phase transitions for pyrolite, we show that both scales of upwellings can be generated in a stagnant lid planet with an interior temperature 250 to 400 K warmer than Earth’s. The smaller plumes originate from a ~600 km deep internal layer that exists as a consequence of the different sequence of mineral phase transitions that occur in warmer mantles less processed and differentiated by partial melting and volcanism. Future models that include melting will provide further tests of our hypothesis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in tropical forest canopy height: Insights from NASA’s GEDI spaceborne LiDAR

Forest canopy height is a fundamental ecosystem property—influencing patterns of forest carbon storage and forest ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. Previous studies have analyzed environmental drivers influencing spatial variation in canopy height at landscape-to-regional scales; however, far less is known about the environmental determinants underlying regional and global scale variation in forest canopy height. Using the canopy height metrics products from Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), a space-borne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) instrument specifically designed to characterize forest structure, we analyze the environmental correlates of spatial variation of global tropical forest canopy height. Our study demonstrates that climate, topography, and soil properties account for 75% of the variation in tropical forest canopy height. Elevation, dry season length, and solar radiation are the most important drivers in determining canopy height both locally and regionally. These results emphasize the vulnerability of tropical forest structure to ongoing changes in the earth’s climate and provide a valuable empirical baseline for tropical forest management.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Tradeoffs and Synergies in Tropical Forest Root Traits and Dynamics for Nutrient and Water Acquisition: Field and Modeling Advances

Vegetation processes are fundamentally limited by nutrient and water availability, the uptake of which is mediated by plant roots in terrestrial ecosystems. While tropical forests play a central role in global water, carbon, and nutrient cycling, we know very little about tradeoffs and synergies in root traits that respond to resource scarcity. Tropical trees face a unique set of resource limitations, with rock-derived nutrients and moisture seasonality governing many ecosystem functions, and nutrient versus water availability often separated spatially and temporally. Root traits that characterize biomass, depth distributions, production and phenology, morphology, physiology, chemistry, and symbiotic relationships can be predictive of plants’ capacities to access and acquire nutrients and water, with links to aboveground processes like transpiration, wood productivity, and leaf phenology. In this review, we identify an emerging trend in the literature that tropical fine root biomass and production in surface soils are greatest in infertile or sufficiently moist soils. We also identify interesting paradoxes in tropical forest root responses to changing resources that merit further exploration. For example, specific root length, which typically increases under resource scarcity to expand the volume of soil explored, instead can increase with greater base cation availability, both across natural tropical forest gradients and in fertilization experiments. Also, nutrient additions, rather than reducing mycorrhizal colonization of fine roots as might be expected, increased colonization rates under scenarios of water scarcity in some forests. Efforts to include fine root traits and functions in vegetation models have grown more sophisticated over time, yet there is a disconnect between the emphasis in models characterizing nutrient and water uptake rates and carbon costs versus the emphasis in field experiments on measuring root biomass, production, and morphology in response to changes in resource availability. Closer integration of field and modeling efforts could connect mechanistic investigation of fine-root dynamics to ecosystem-scale understanding of nutrient and water cycling, allowing us to better predict tropical forest-climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Colors of Jupiter's large anticyclones and the interaction of a Tropical Red Oval with the Great Red Spot in 2008

The nature and mechanisms producing the chromophore agents that provide color to the upper clouds and hazes of the atmospheres of the giant planets are largely unknown. In recent times, the changes in red coloration that have occurred in large- and medium-scale Jovian anticyclones have been particularly interesting. In late June and early July 2008, a particularly color-intense red tropical oval interacted with the Great Red Spot (GRS) leading to the destruction of the red tropical oval and cloud dispersion. We present a detailed study of the tropical vortices, usually white but sometimes red, and a characterization of their color spectral signatures and dynamics. From the spectral reflectivity in methane bands we study their vertical cloud structure compared to that of the GRS and BA. Using two spectral indices we found a near-correlation between anticyclones cloud top altitudes and red color. We present detailed observations of the interaction of the red oval with the GRS and model simulations of the phenomena that allow us to constrain the relative vertical extent of the vortices. We conclude that the vertical cloud structure, vertical extent and dynamics of Jovian anticyclones are not the causes of their coloration. We propose that the red chromophore forms when background material (a compound or particles) is entrained by the vortex, transforming into red once inside the vortex due to internal conditions, exposure to ultraviolet radiation or to the mixing of two chemical compounds that react inside the vortex, confined by a potential vorticity ring barrier.

red color

A Survey of Lunar Rock Types and Comparison of the Crusts of Earth and Moon

The principal known types of lunar rocks are briefly reviewed, and their chemical relationships discussed. In the suite of low-KREEP highland rocks, Fe/(Fe + Mg) in the normative mafic minerals increases and the albite content of normative plagioclase decreases as the total amount of normative plagioclase increases, the opposite of the trend predicted by the Bowen reaction principle. Lunar highland samples analyzed are uniformly distributed in this sequence, in which normative plagioclase contents range from ~ 40 percent to ~ 100 percent. The distribution of compositions of rocks from terrestrial layered mafic intrusives is substantially different: here the analyses fall in several discrete clusters (anorthositic rocks, norites, granophyres and ferrogabbros, ultramafics), and the chemical trends noted above are not reproduced. It is suggested that the observed trends in lunar highland rocks could be produced by crystal fractionation in a deep global surface magma system if (1) plagioclase tended to float, upon crystallization, and (2) the magma was kept agitated and well mixed (probably by thermal convection) until crystallization was far advanced and relatively little residual liquid was left. When such a system was finally immobilized, the Fe-, Na-rich residual liquid would produce Fe-rich mafic minerals in the upper levels of the system, but could not much alter the composition of abundant calcic plagioclase. Conversely, the same liquid would produce sodic plagioclase deep in the sequence, but could not much alter the composition of abundant magnesian mafic minerals. After the crustal system solidified, but before extensive cooling had developed a thick, strong lithosphere, mantle convection was able to draw portions of the lunar anorthositic crust down into the mantle in a manner analogous to the present-day behavior of the terrestrial mantle and crust. At depth, the crustal material was heated; KREEP-rich norite was extracted by partial melting and erupted at the surface as a lava, analogous to terrestrial andesite eruptions.

John A Wood

Feasibility of Multi-Use Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Platforms

Tropical islands and coastal communities in the United States and internationally suffer from high energy costs, unreliable electrical supplies, poverty, and underemployment, which are all being exacerbated by climate change. Multi-use Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) systems could align with the goals and values of these underserved and remote communities as scalable platforms that can provide baseload power, freshwater, and food, as well as potentially support new industries. The cold, nutrient-rich deep seawater needed for OTEC’s power cycles has many promising byproduct applications such as seawater air conditioning (SWAC) for residential and industrial cooling, enhancing aquaculture farms (e.g., cooling and nutrients for seaweed, shellfish, finfish), producing freshwater through desalination, and generating efuels such as ammonia and hydrogen.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER

Computation of three-dimensional mixed convective boundary layer flow

The paper presents the numerical solution of heat and mass transfer during cross-flow (orthogonal) mixed convection. In this class of flow, a buoyancy-driven transport in the vertical direction and a forced convective flow in the horizontal direction results in a three-dimensional boundary layer structure adjacent to the plate. The rates of heat and mass transfer are determined by a combined influence of the two transport processes. The equations for the conservation of mass, momentum, energy, and species concentration were solved along with appropriate boundary conditions to determine the distributions of velocity components, temperature, and concentration across the thickness of the boundary layer at different locations on the plate. Results were expressed in dimensionless form using Reynolds number, Richardson number for heat transfer, Richardson number for mass transfer, Prandtl number, and Schmidt number as parameters. It was found that the transport is dominated by buoyancy at smaller vertical locations and at larger distances away from the forced convection leading edge. Effects of forced convection appeared to be very strong at smaller horizontal distances from the leading edge. The cross stream forced convection enhanced the rate of heat and mass transfer by a very significant amount.

Prashandt Gadepalli

Suppression of Marangoni Convection in Float Zones

The basic purpose of this program is to demonstrate by means of an Earth-based 1-g experiment that the undesirable Marangoni (surface tension) convection can be suppressed or significantly reduced by means of gas jets directed tangentially to the free surface of the liquid in a float zone. These jets will establish the tangential shear stress field over the surface which must be adjusted to equal the counter-stress resultant of the Marangoni shear stress which causes the convection. For proposed materials processing in space (o-g), particularly of important, highly reactive semiconductor materials, e.g., silicon, microgravity will virtually eliminate the unwanted thermal-buoyancy convection in the liquid silicon, but will have no effect in reducing the Marangoni convection. Unless this can be sufficiently suppressed by other means, there may be no significant advantages to the proposed space processing of reactive semiconductors. Although some inert gas such as argon must be used for the corrosive liquid silicon, the Earth-based experiment uses air jets and various transparent oils, since the basic principle involved is the same. The first float zone is enclosed in a very small rectangular box with a quasi-planar free surface. Stable Marangoni convection has been achieved and velocities measured photographically. The air jet system with variable velocity and temperature is under construction. Three independent parameters must be optimized to attain maximum suppression: the gas velocity, angle of attack, and gas temperature.

Robert F Dressler

Single-Drop Reactive Extraction/Extractive Reaction With Forced Convective Diffusion and Interphase Mass Transfer

An algorithm has been developed for time-dependent forced convective diffusion-reaction having convection by a recirculating flow field within the drop that is hydrodynamically coupled at the interface with a convective external flow field that at infinity becomes a uniform free-streaming flow. The concentration field inside the droplet is likewise coupled with that outside by boundary conditions at the interface. A chemical reaction can take place either inside or outside the droplet, or reactions can take place in both phases. The algorithm has been implemented, and for comparison results are shown here for the case of no reaction in either phase and for the case of an external first order reaction, both for unsteady behavior. For pure interphase mass transfer, concentration isocontours, local and average Sherwood numbers, and average droplet concentrations have been obtained as a function of the physical properties and external flow field. For mass transfer enhanced by an external reaction, in addition to the above forms of results, we present the enhancement factor, with the results now also depending upon the (dimensionless) rate of reaction.

Leonid S Kleinman

Extensional Flow Convecting a Reactant Undergoing a First Order Homogeneous Reaction and Diffusional Mass Transfer From a Sphere at Low to Intermediate Peclet and Damkohler Numbers

Forced convective diffusion-reaction is considered for viscous axisymmetric extensional convecting velocity in the neighborhood of a sphere. For Peclet numbers in the range 0.1 ≤ Pe ≤ 500 and for Damkohler numbers increasing with increasing Pe but in the overall range 0.02 ≤ Da ≤ 10, average and local Sherwood numbers have been computed. By introducing the eigenfunction expansion c(r,Θ) = Σ c n (r)P n (cosΘ) into the forced convective diffusion equation for the concentration of a chemical species undergoing a first order homogeneous reaction and by using properties of the Legendre functions P n (cosΘ), the variable coefficient PDE can be reduced to a system of N+1 second order ODEs for the radial functions C n (r), n=0,1,2, ... ,N. The adaptive grid algorithm of Pereyra and Lentini can be used to solve the corresponding 2(N+ 1) first order differential equations as a two-point boundary value problem on 1 ≤ r ≤ r •• . Convergence of the expansion for a specific value of N can thus be established and provides "spectral" behavior as well as the full concentration field c(r,Θ).

N Y Shah