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At least 19 records

Assessing Total Cost of Driving Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks

This file includes supporting data on modeled medium and heavy-duty vehicle (MHDV) stock, sales, energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of driving (TCD) for the scenarios presented in "Assessing Total Cost of Driving Competitiveness of Zero-Emission Trucks". It also includes input assumptions for vehicle technology attributes (cost and fuel economy), fuel costs, maintenance costs, and the opportunity cost of charging time for the central scenario and relevant sensitivities. Values are reported at the national (United States) level for all vehicle classes and technologies. Tab 'B' inclues definitions, while data is provided in subsequent sheets.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Drive Cycles, Battery Pack Scaling, and Usage Considerations for Long-Haul and Regional-Haul Electric Trucks

Electrifying Class-8 heavy-duty trucks presents a promising opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce freight transport costs. Battery electric trucks (BETs), once considered niche, are gaining traction due to advancements in battery technology and cost reductions. However, accurately predicting battery lifespan under realistic usage conditions remains a key challenge. Understanding battery failure mechanisms and their links to design, operation, and management is essential for developers and fleet operators. This study introduces a method to develop simplified, lab-testable dynamic stress test (DST) cycles for regional and long-haul Class-8 BETs, derived from real-world diesel truck usage. These DSTs enable benchmarking of battery technologies, identification of aging stressors, and optimization of battery design, life, and cost. The approach supports evaluation of key metrics such as levelized cost of driving and total cost of ownership, aiding fair comparisons and adoption decisions. We also propose feasible battery pack sizes that meet current driving demands with strategic charging, and a method to scale pack-level DSTs to cell-level cycles for lab-based testing. These tools facilitate tradeoff analysis across battery chemistries, pack sizing, and charging strategies, while offering means to get insights into battery aging under realistic conditions-ultimately supporting informed BET deployment decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Decarbonizing Medium- & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis

We simulate adoption and energy consumption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the medium and heavy duty (MD/HD) sector. With continued improvement in ZEV technologies, total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional vehicles is achievable by 2035 for all MD/HD vehicle classes. Two technological solutions – battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization. In this scenario, ZEV sales reach 99+% by 2045 and 42% by 2030. 80% of the MD/HD stock transitions to ZEVs by 2050, reducing CO2 emissions by 69% from 2019. Disparities in adoption rate and vehicle usage between vehicle classes and between short and long-haul applications highlight opportunities for targeted policies (to reduce emissions it is critical to understand what vehicles transition to ZEV, not just how many vehicles). Results are highly sensitive to assumed fuel prices, technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and assumptions about future freight demand and vehicle use.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Enabling a Sustainable Future: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis to Inform Decarbonization Pathways

Despite being only 5% of vehicles on the road, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) are the second largest contributor to transportation emissions (21%) and a major source of local air pollution disproportionally affecting disadvantaged communities. This talk summarizes a cost analysis for zero emissions vehicles (battery electric EVs and hydrogen fuel cell FCEVs) for all medium and heavy duty applications, ranging from large pick-up trucks, to delivery vans, buses, and heavy trucks. Results show that with continued improvements in vehicle and fuel technologies (in line with U.S. Department of Energy targets and vetted with industry), zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) can reach total-cost-of-driving parity with conventional diesel vehicles by 2035 for all medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) vehicle classes without incentives. Assuming economics drives adoption, ZEV sales could reach 42% of all MD/HD trucks by 2030, reflecting lower combined vehicle purchase and operating costs (using real-world payback periods). Two technological solutions - battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) - are viable in multiple market segments, offering alternative pathways for decarbonization: a) BEVs tend to become cost-competitive for smaller trucks before 2030 and for short-haul (<500-mile) heavy trucks before 2035. b) Hydrogen FCEVs tend to become cost-competitive for long-haul (>500-mile) heavy trucks by 2035. Results are very sensitive to technology improvement trajectories, adoption decision-making, and uncertain assumptions about future freight demand, logistics, and vehicle use explored in multiple scenarios.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

SAE Government-Industry - Heavy-Duty Policy: Panel Discussion (G203)

Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are 21% of US transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a major source of air pollution. In this talk to present some results exploring how the total cost of driving (TCD) of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), including battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (EVs and FCEVs), could evolve under alternative scenarios. Results show that with continued improvements in vehicles and fuels, ZEVs can rapidly become viable, potentially reaching TCD parity or better compared to diesel vehicles by 2035 for all market segments. For heavy long-haul trucks, EVs become competitive on a TCD basis at charging costs below $0.18/kWh, while FCEVs become competitive on a TCD basis at hydrogen costs below $5/kg. A full transition to ZEV sales by 2035 results in 65% emissions reductions by 2050 compared to 2019 without supportive policies. Incentives such as the Inflation Reduction Act vehicle purchase credits further accelerate ZEV TCD competitiveness with major adoption opportunities over the next five years.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSI↗

Decarbonizing Medium & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles

We analyze the decarbonization potential of medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) across multiple vehicle classes and market segments. We evaluate the timeframe in which zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could achieve cost parity with conventional diesel vehicles and the implications for energy and emissions. Our results show that ZEVs can achieve cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2035 across the majority of vehicle classes and market segments. Emissions reductions range from 27% to 77% by 2050 relative to 2019 across multiple fuel cost and technology progress sensitivities. Multiple technology pathways are viable for decarbonization, including battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. This presentation is based on previous work published by NREL: Ledna, C., Muratori, M., Yip, A., Jadun, P., and Hoehne, C. 2022. Decarbonizing Medium & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

TCO Analysis Approach and Regional Analysis of dWPT for Class 8 Tractors

Dynamic Wireless Power Transfer (dWPT) is a method by which battery electric vehicles (BEVs) can charge their battery while traveling on the road without the need for a physical conductive connection to the power source. dWPT has been proposed as a strategy to enable a reduction in vehicle battery capacity and associated mass and cost. In this slide deck presented at the EVs@Scale Consortium - Wireless Power Transfer Pillar Deep-Dive Meeting on November 11th, 2023, NREL provides results from an evaluation of dWPT using data from Class 8 tractors driving in the Atlanta Metro Area. NREL selected data for archetypal days representing local, regional, and long-haul trips, defined according to trip length, that included travel on primary roadways. EVI-InMotion (Electric Vehicle Infrastructure - InMotion), a systems planning and optimization tool developed at NREL, was used to evaluate dWPT performance assuming dWPT charging on 120 road segments for a total roadway lane distance of 2,365 miles. The EVI-InMotion results and representative day drive cycles were analyzed with NREL's T3CO (Transportation Technology Total Cost of Ownership) tool to estimate the total cost of ownership (TCO) for scenarios comprising two model years - 2030 and 2040 - and two technology progress cases. TCO was calculated for diesel, fuel cell electric, BEVs with batteries sized assuming no dWPT capabilities, and 200kWh BEVs with dWPT installed. This analysis finds that en-route stationary charging frequency and downtime when not on electrified roadways are the main contributors to TCO for the dWPT vehicles and that these vehicles can achieve cost parity with FCEVs at low electricity costs. Based on the scenario assumptions used here, low electricity costs would further help the cost parity with diesel vehicles in regional and long-haul cases due to stationary fueling downtime. This presentation also concludes that key factors affecting the parity potential of dWPT-capable vehicles include more extensive dWPT road coverage, higher en-route charging power, less expensive power batteries, and higher hydrogen or diesel fuel costs.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Charting the Path to Electrification: Analyzing the Economic and Technological Potential of Advanced Vehicle Powertrains

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) is driving advancements in highway transportation by targeting energy efficiency, environmental sustainability, and cost reductions. This study investigates the fuel economy potential and cost implications of advanced powertrain technologies using comprehensive system simulations. Leveraging tools such as Autonomie and TechScape, developed by Argonne National Laboratory, this study evaluates multiple timeframes (2023–2050) and powertrain types, including conventional internal combustion engines, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Simulations conducted across standard regulatory driving cycles provide detailed insights into fuel economy improvements, cost trajectories, and total cost of ownership. The findings highlight key innovations in battery energy density, lightweighting, and powertrain optimization, demonstrating the growing viability of BEVs and their projected economic competitiveness with conventional vehicles by 2050. This work delivers actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders, underscoring the transformative potential of vehicle electrification in achieving sustainable transportation goals.

Islam, Ehsan Sabri (ORCID:0000000200220180)↗

Connected and automated vehicles, driving systems, and control logic for info-rich eco-autonomous driving

A method for controlling automated driving operations of a vehicle includes determining vehicle origin and destination data, and generating a graphical representation of a road network with multiple candidate routes between the vehicle's origin and destination. Road-level data, including speed, turn angle, and/or gradient data, is received for each candidate route, and respective total energy uses are estimated for the vehicle to traverse across the candidate routes. Multiple candidate driving strategies, each having respective speed and acceleration profiles, are determined for the candidate route with the lowest estimated total energy use. An optimal candidate driving strategy is selected through a cost evaluation of the associated speed and acceleration profiles and forward movement simulations of the vehicle over a prediction horizon. Command signals are transmitted to the vehicle's steering and/or powertrain systems to execute control operations based on the optimal driving strategy and the candidate route with the lowest energy use.

Zhao, Junfeng↗

Development of an Energy Efficient and Cost Effective Autonomous Vehicle Research Platform

Commercialization of autonomous vehicle technology is a major goal of the automotive industry, thus research in this space is rapidly expanding across the world. However, despite this high level of research activity, literature detailing a straightforward and cost-effective approach to the development of an AV research platform is sparse. To address this need, we present the methodology and results regarding the AV instrumentation and controls of a 2019 Kia Niro which was developed for a local AV pilot program. This platform includes a drive-by-wire actuation kit, Aptiv electronically scanning radar, stereo camera, MobilEye computer vision system, LiDAR, inertial measurement unit, two global positioning system receivers to provide heading information, and an in-vehicle computer for driving environment perception and path planning. Robotic Operating System software is used as the system middleware between the instruments and the autonomous application algorithms. After selection, installation, and integration of these components, our results show successful utilization of all sensors, drive-by-wire functionality, a total additional power* consumption of 242.8 Watts (*Typical), and an overall cost of $118,189 USD, which is a significant saving compared to other commercially available systems with similar functionality. This vehicle continues to serve as our primary AV research and development platform.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

SECARB-USA: Needs Assessment Framework for Storage Complexes (Task 2.1.b)

A team of SECARB storage experts examined 63 formations at 39 sites that were selected to represent the range of diversity of newly assessed, as well as well-advanced, storage prospects in the SECARB region. We inventoried the data needs triggered by the requirements to obtain a Class VI UIC storage permit, the data needs that results from the requirement to create geocellular fluid flow models to support that permit, and by pragmatic and best practice inputs such as public acceptance, regulatory readiness, and pore space leasing. We anchored both the needs inventory and the processes for and cost of meeting the needs with data from 9 sites in in the SECARB area that have advanced far in characterization. Results show that the total cost of characterization prior to obtaining a permit is convergent, because the permit and modeling requirements drive projects to obtain the same types of data for all cases. The high cost data that control cost are 1) drilling, coring, core-testing, logging, sampling and testing a characterization well and 2) collection of a 3-D seismic survey to map reservoir and confining system properties over the area of the plume or the area of elevated pressure. In 5 of our case study sites we determined that one or both of these costs could be avoided because the needs are met by available data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance and Durability of Hybrid Fuel Cell Systems for Class-8 Long Haul Trucks

Hybrid fuel cell-battery configurations are investigated that overcome thermal management issues in fuel cell powertrains for heavy-duty Class 8 trucks. The battery is sized so that it has sufficient capacity to provide supplemental power and energy on a hill climb transient at end-of-life. A dynamic load sharing strategy is developed to distribute the power demand between the fuel cell system (FCS) and the energy storage system in a manner that optimizes their lifetimes. The FCS end-of-life is identified as the terminal point beyond which the stack cannot generate the rated power with target power density at 0.7 V and 40 °C ambient temperature. Reaching the target lifetime with a-Pt/C cathode catalyst in one hybrid configuration requires voltage clipping to 813 mV, idle power limited to 50 kW, catalyst overloading to 0.45 mg cm -2 total Pt in anode and cathode, and 44% active membrane area oversizing. The stack and FCS drive cycle efficiencies decrease by 4.2% and 5.4%, respectively, during the electrode lifetime. Further, the FCS performance, durability and cost are compared with the targets of 68% peak efficiency, 0.30 mg cm -2 total Pt loading, 2.5 kW/g PGM Pt group metal (PGM) loading, 750 mW cm -2 power density, 25,000-h lifetime and $80/kW cost.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Low Cost High-Performance HRE-Free 3-in-1 Electric Drive Unit

The project team completed work to expand upon American Axle & Manufacturing’s (AAM) baseline technology and develop a high-speed, AC induction electric drive unit (EDU) with total direct-oil-cooling and integrated power electronics. The project accelerated advancements in EDU technology by allowing AAM to build upon the progress made in developing the underlying baseline technologies. The following seven improvements to AAM’s baseline technology were implemented in this research and development program: 1) Increased speed (30k RPM) AC induction motor, 2) Silver-sintering of discrete silicon carbide (SiC) metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFET) to heat sinks, 3) Electrically insulated rotor bars, 4) Optimized lamination steel, 5) EDU-integrated 650VDC inverter package, 6) Over-molded stator with molded liners, and 7) 650VDC power-dense stator design. The successful development of the technology resulted in a meaningful cost reduction for EDU systems in the market. Coupled with falling battery system costs, lower EDU costs will likely accelerate the market acceptance and related production scaling of battery electric vehicles. The objective of this project was to research, develop, and test a Heavy Rare Earth (HRE)-free 3-In-1 electric drive unit (EDU) that has class leading power density and cost. The key technologies to be developed were anticipated to meet or exceed the Department of Energy (DOE) targets of a cost ≤ $\$$7/kilowatt (kW), power density ≥ 12 kW/liter, and operating voltage ≥ 600 VDC.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS

The Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC) was formed to address pressing challenges in the commercialization of microalgae as a source of biofuel. The “Marine Algae Industrialization Consortium (MAGIC): Combining biofuel and high-value bioproducts to meet the RFS” project formally addressed two US Department of Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) goals: (1) Model the sustainable supply of 1 million metric tonnes ash free dry weight (AFDW) cultivated algal biomass and (2) Demonstrate valuable co-products produced along with biofuel intermediates to increase value of algal biomass by 30%. To achieve these goals, the project demonstrated and validated high-value co-products to drive down the cost of biofuel by increasing the value of algae “co-products” towards increasing the selling price of total algae biomass as one of the key drivers of economics and adoption. This was accomplished through five core, interdependent tasks including: (1) strain selection to identify and deliver strains for mass culture, (2) mass culture using a hybrid cultivation system and following key operating parameters for downstream applications to provide algae feedstock, (3) recovery and conversion to evaluate two alternative methods to separate dry algae biomass into oil and residuals for downstream testing, (4) product assessment to determine biofuel, aquafeed or poultry feed product efficacy using algae biomass fractions as well as to provide critical performance data for valuation and (5) commercialization to use technoeconomic and life cycle assessments (TEA/LCA) as iterative design and assessment tools including consideration of target markets, competitors, and distribution channels to guide product assessment, development and valuation. A total of 46 peer-review publications, many open-access, provide detail of much of the work carried out and the results of the tasks. Additional reports and presentations provide other technical and public engagement material. At a high level, using a variety of approaches, more than 1000 marine microalgae strains were evaluated to ultimately identify the seven winners that were down-selected to be grown in mass culture. Strain selection demonstrated that there were no ‘super strains’ and that each candidate had strengths and limitations for specific products, growth conditions or operational considerations. Mass culture growth of these seven strains at >5000 L / 29 m 2 scale found that four them were suitable for product assessment. More than 250 kg of biomass was produced across hundreds of pond runs along with thousands of cultivation entries on the growth and biomass characteristics as well as environmental parameters. In the process, dozens of standard operating procedures were generated as was custom software to process and analyze cultivation data. Recovery and conversion of algae biomass demonstrated that a hexane solvent based extraction protocol was most effective at recovering oil (biocrude) from algae and four strains were processed to produce oil and lipid extracted algae (residuals) for downstream testing. Membrane-based oil separation was less successful, but may still be applicable to other commercial applications in the future. Product testing demonstrated that algae biocrude is of high quality and hydrotreating generated numerous fractions of high quality composition for fuel and lubricate based applications. Aquafeed studies performed at a variety of scales showed that both whole and defatted (lipid extracted algae) microalgae were suitable as a feed ingredient, but that the specifics of the fed animal and biochemical composition of the algae are critical factors when determining formulation. Similarly, poultry studies on whole and defatted microalgae generally showed positive outcomes on animal growth and health, with some microalgae providing enhanced nutritional composition of the animal product. Economic and life cycle assessments covered a wide range of possible commercialization and sustainability scenarios. Replacement value, improved product value added, consumer values marketing added valuation and improved animal health were considered as alternatives for microalgae valuation. Using the open pond system, algae productivity was identified as the key driver of commercialization economics, but combination of co-products (e.g. animal feed) with biofuel production substantially increased the total selling price of algae. Modeled microalgae selling price exceeded $\$$1500/tonne and could generate competitive biofuel selling prices below $\$$5 gallon gas equivalents using realistic algal productivities. Short (process scale) and longer (decadal trends) sustainability assessments show that marine microalgae can enhance the sustainability of energy production and lead to other realized benefits in water, fertilizer and land use for other sectors (e.g. agriculture). This project successfully demonstrated all of the components of an end-to-end process from mass microalgae cultivation and dewatering, to recovery and conversion of algae biomass components, to final product demonstration and process valuation; the combined results provide a framework for future commercialization of algae based biofuels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Future Projections of Lifecycle Cost and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Light-Duty Vehicles

Vehicles with electrified powertrains carry the promise of significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a lifecycle analysis (LCA) standpoint compared to conventional internal combustion engine (CICE) vehicles. However, trade-offs exist between different types of electrified powertrains in terms of cost, consumer acceptance, and GHG reduction efficacy for different operating conditions. The open-source tool CarGHG was developed with an aim to enable the exploration of a plethora of parametric study scenarios, including the cost of electrification technologies, different driving patterns and charging habits, and the cost and carbon intensity of electricity and fuel blends. This paper introduces the framework of CarGHG, then showcases total cost of ownership (TCO) and LCA GHG results for select models of light-duty vehicles. Another capability of CarGHG, which is the ability to estimate the performance of “virtual” vehicle models (perceived vehicle design specifications not yet on the market), is utilized to explore future scenarios of electrification and low-carbon fuel blends for Small Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), a popular light-duty vehicle segment in North America. With opportunities, but also uncertainties, in future scenarios, it is likely wise to continue pursuing multiple ways towards the reduction of LCA GHG.

Hamza, Karim↗

Measurement of Wind Loading on Heliostats at the Crescent Dunes Power Plant: An Overview

The cost of solar collectors constitutes almost one third of the total cost of a CSP plant. One of the ongoing challenges in the design of these collectors is wind loading on mirrors, support structures, and drives. A particular challenge is dynamic wind loading, caused by the turbulent wind flow. To date, the design of solar collector structures has relied on wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations that do not entirely capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. The CSP industry has shown increased interest in validating the idealized assumptions with measurements obtained in operational settings to improve wind load assumptions and increase reliability and cost-efficiency of the collector design. Further, performance models need realistic assumptions about wind loading and its impact on optical performance. In a parabolic trough field campaign, NREL successfully collected a wealth of long-term, high-resolution wind and loads data [2], that are publicly available and that can be used for the above-mentioned purposes. Heliostats are impacted differently by wind than parabolic troughs, due to their different shape, size, and field layout. To study the impact of wind and turbulence on heliostats, we initiated another field campaign in an operational power- tower plant, Crescent Dunes, in Nevada, USA. In this work, we present an overview of the measurements, first results, and potential implications of wind driven loads on Heliostats.

concentrated solar power↗

Wind Loading on Parabolic Trough Collectors: Wind and Structural Loads Measurements at an Operational Powerplant

Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) is a promising method for using solar power for electricity generation with thermal energy storage for industrial applications. Solar collectors constitute almost 1/3 of the total cost of the power plant. One of the primary drivers of unrealiability of these collectors is wind-driven loading of mirrors, support structures, and drives. To date, the design of the solar collector structures has relied on data from wind tunnels that do not adequately capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. NREL initiated a field measurement campaign at the operational Nevada Solar One (NSO) parabolic trough powerplant. At this plant, parabolic trough solar collectors track the sun from east to west in the course of a day and face varying wind loads depending on the wind properties and the angle of the troughs. The aim of the project is a detailed characterization of prevailing wind and turbulence conditions and resulting operational loads on parabolic troughs, providing insights into structural dynamic response, and generating a comprehensive wind-loading dataset for validating simulations of wind loading on collector structures. The measurements at NSO consist of sonic anemometers on masts at different heights to characterize the incoming flow and conditions at four trough rows at the edge of the trough field. In addition, a Doppler Lidar scans the horizontal plane above the troughs. The wind measurements at NSO have been continuously collecting data since October 2021 and are combined with structural load measurements that started in November 2022. The load measurements were installed on the same four outermost trough rows and include support structure bending moments, drive torque moments, dynamic accelerations of the spaceframe, mirror displacement, and tilt angles. Measurements are planned to continue until May 2023, providing a first-of-a-kind, high-resolution multi-month dataset of combined wind and load measurements. In this presentation, we show first results of the measurement campaign. Based on the measurements, we identified three main factors altering the flow over the parabolic troughs: Wind speed, wind direction, and the angle of the parabolic troughs. Most interactions between incoming wind and the trough field are observed when the wind blows perpendicular to the trough rows. In this case, the first rows experience the highest wind speed and block the downwind rows, creating conditions with decreased wind speed and enhanced turbulence within the trough field. Also, turbulent length scales are smaller after the first row. This leads to the highest static loads (bending and torque moments) at the first row but potentially increased dynamic loads within the field. We illustrate our findings with case studies focused on different wind conditions and will present fatigue analysis to highlight the impact of wind-driven loads on collector structures.

CSP collectors↗