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Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends

Ground-Based Microwave Measurements of ClO and O3 Over Scott Base, Antarctica

We present measurements from a new microwave instrument that has been deployed at Scott Base, Antarctica, primarily to measure ClO. The new instrument allows for the extension of the time series of lower stratospheric ClO measurements begun in 1996 at this site, while some of the technical improvements offer the possibility of making additional measurements. We show measurements of ClO and O 3 in both the upper and lower stratosphere near both the fall and spring equinox and document the diurnal variations of these measurements throughout the season. The ground-based measurements are compared with Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements, which are available twice per day, and with a NASA Goddard 2D model (GSFC2D) simulation. We show that, in agreement with the GSFC2D model diurnal variations, upper stratospheric ClO mixing ratios gradually increase throughout the daylight hours, while in the lower stratospheric austral spring, when heterogeneous chemistry associated with polar stratospheric clouds occurs, daily maximum ClO mixing ratios of near 2 ppbv occur near noon. We also show measurements of stratospheric O 3 , primarily in the upper stratosphere, which, while exhibiting a low bias of ∼15%–20% relative to Aura MLS, show temporal variations in good agreement with MLS.

stratospheric ozone

Observing low-altitude features in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment via uncrewed aerial systems

Abstract. Ozone is a pollutant formed in the atmosphere by photochemical processes involving nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) when exposed to sunlight. Tropospheric boundary layer ozone is regularly measured at ground stations and sampled infrequently through balloon, lidar, and crewed aircraft platforms, which have demonstrated characteristic patterns with altitude. Here, to better resolve vertical profiles of ozone within the atmospheric boundary layer, we developed and evaluated an uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) platform for measuring ozone and meteorological parameters of temperature, pressure, and humidity. To evaluate this approach, a UAS was flown with a portable ozone monitor and a meteorological temperature and humidity sensor to compare to tall tower measurements in northern Wisconsin. In June 2020, as a part of the WiscoDISCO20 campaign, a DJI M600 hexacopter UAS was flown with the same sensors to measure Lake Michigan shoreline ozone concentrations. This latter UAS experiment revealed a low-altitude structure in ozone concentrations in a shoreline environment showing the highest ozone at altitudes from 20–100 m a.g.l. These first such measurements of low-altitude ozone via a UAS in the Great Lakes region revealed a very shallow layer of ozone-rich air lying above the surface.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Satellite characterization of global stratospheric sulfate aerosols released by Tonga volcano

Large volcanic eruptions create an enhanced layer of sulfate aerosols in the stratosphere. These sulfuric acid droplets persist for many months, altering the climate and stratospheric chemistry. Sulfate aerosols scatter sunlight back to space, cooling the surface of the Earth and absorb outgoing thermal radiation, heating the stratosphere. The calculation of the climate impact of sulfate aerosols depends on their physical properties such as droplet size and chemical composition. These properties are not well known, and this uncertainty contributes to the errors in climate model predictions. Here we derive the first empirical formula that predicts the composition of stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions from the air temperature and water vapor pressure. Measurements of atmospheric infrared transmittance of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai sulfate aerosol plume by the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite were analyzed to determine composition (weight percent of sulfuric acid) and median particle radius. These data are supplemented by measurements of the Raikoke and Nabro eruptions. Our analysis allows the properties of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere to be predicted reliably in atmospheric models.

P Bernath

Passive Remote Sensing of Stratospheric and Mesospheric Winds

A passive infrared sensor is described for remote sounding of the wind field in the stratosphere and mesosphere from near Earth orbital spacecraft. The instrument uses gas correlation spectroscopy together with electro-optic phase modulation techniques to measure winds in the 20- to 120-km altitude range globally, both in the day and at night, and with a vertical resolution of better than the atmospheric scale height. Measurement of temperature and the amounts of key atmospheric species may also be made simultaneously and in coincident fields of view with the wind observations. The sensor is currently being developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory as a candidate for the upcoming NASA Earth Observation System.

Daniel J Mccleese

Methods for Validation of Random Uncertainty Estimates and Their Applications to Ozone Profiles From Limb-Viewing Satellite Instruments

For satellite measurements of atmospheric composition, the random uncertainty estimates provided by retrieval algorithms might be imperfect due to various approximations used in the retrievals or the presence of unknown error sources. This paper presents an overview of the methods used for the validation of random uncertainty estimates. All methods discussed in this study are categorized, and assumptions and limitations of each method are discussed. This overview evaluates these methods in application to ozone profile measurements from limb and occultation satellite instruments and provides practical illustrations of random uncertainty validation.

Viktoria F Sofieva

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR

A Comparison of Doppler Lidar Wind Sensors for Earth-Orbit Global Measurement Applications

Now, there are four Doppler lidar configurations which are being promoted for the measurement of tropospheric winds: (1) the coherent CO2 Lidar, operating in the 9 micrometer region using a pulsed, atmospheric pressure CO2 gas discharge laser transmitter, and heterodyne detection; (2) the coherent Neodymium doped YAG or Glass Lidar, operating at 1.06 micrometers, using flashlamp or diode laser optical pumping of the solid state laser medium, and heterodyne detection; (3) the Neodymium doped YAG/Glass Lidar, operating at the doubled frequency (at 530 nm wavelength), again using flashlamp or diode laser pumping of the laser transmitter, and using a high resolution tandem Fabry-Perot filter and direct detection; and (4) the Raman shifted Xenon Chloride Lidar, operating at 350 nm wavelength, using a pulsed, atmospheric pressure XeCl gas discharge laser transmitter at 308 nm, Raman shifted in a high pressure hydrogen cell to 350 nm in order to avoid strong stratospheric ozone absorption, also using a high resolution tandem Fabry-Perot filter and direct detection. Comparisons of these four systems can include many factors and tradeoffs. The major portion of this comparison is devoted to efficiency. Efficiency comparisons are made by estimating the number of transmitted photons required for a single pulse wind velocity estimate of + or - 1 m/s accuracy in the middle troposphere, from an altitude of 800 km, which is assured to be reasonable for a polar orbiting platform.

Robert T Menzies

Topographic effects on reflected acoustic waves from the OSIRIS-REx reentry observed from stratospheric balloons

During long-distance sound propagation in planetary atmospheres, acoustic waves may reflect off the air/surface interface one or more times. For low sound frequencies and flat interfaces, the incident and reflected wave tend to be nearly identical. However, this may not be the case when the downgoing acoustic wave encounters topography. Here, we describe a set of direct and reflected acoustic signals recorded on free-flying balloons during the hypersonic entry of the OSIRIS-REx sample return capsule (SRC). In two of the three cases presented here, an impulsive reflected arrival similar in form to the direct sonic boom of the SRC is observed, followed by a diffuse coda. In contrast, one of the floating stations lacked an impulsive reflection entirely, with only the coda present. We use full waveform modeling to show how reflection in the presence of complex topography can explain coda seen in all three examples as well as the lack of impulsive arrival on the third. Our results indicate that the complex signals often observed in long range acoustic propagation could be due, in part, to interactions with topography during transmission.

Lees, Jonathan M. [University of North Carolina, C

AC and DC Fault Management for Megawatt Electrified Aircraft Electrical Powertrains Task 3: Lifetime and Reliability of Electrical Insulators

This research project was a collaborative investigation between researchers at the RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC) and the University of Texas at Austin and made a significant contribution to enabling electric aircraft. The transport of electric power between the points of generation and use requires power cables. These cables must be smaller, lighter and provide a more predictable life than power cables used in stationary applications. Consequently, this investigation provided heretofore unavailable information supporting the safety and reliability of smaller lighter power cables for electrified aircraft. In addition, the research identified key additional engineering data needed to support quantitative reliability assessments. Important advances included: • Demonstrated that at least one manufacturer can make a novel, smaller, lighter power cable that is free from serious defects. • Developed and published an appropriate analytical construct to describe the life of this novel cable. This is a necessary step for use in aviation where the understanding of remaining life is critical. • Demonstrated thermal-mechanical aging that suggested 1000+ flights before the thermal-mechanical processes produced defects large enough that the defect growth was accelerated electrically. • Showed that electrical aging took place at two rates. The first possibly lasting weeks to months and the second possibly days to weeks. If robust, this provides a good diagnostic for cable replacement. • Demonstrated that the traditional electrical testing of cable materials using manufactured voids can be misleading due to the size of the voids. Emerging laser drilling technology permitted demonstration that the physics of failure in realistically small voids is different from that in the unrealistically large voids used in earlier research, which is very important for high-quality, high-performance, small aircraft cables. Although this project represents a significant contribution to the specifics of cable aging in the aircraft environment, important additional research remains to be completed, including: • Non-uniform thermal cycling by applying the heat from the center conductor to maximize thermal stress next to the core area where the electric gradient is the strongest. This builds on the uniform thermal cycling that has been completed. • The augmentation of the thermal-mechanical failure rate by electrical processes. Better understanding of these time constants strongly affects the ability to predict life. • Termination design: Terminations provide not only electrical reflection potential, but a location for a series arc fault and an area where ozone can diffuse into the center conductor and negatively affect cable insulation. • The abrasion and ozone resistance of the cable jacket. • Pressure cycling as an accelerant of thermal, mechanical, and/or electrical aging. • Possible methods for online PD detection and offline PD localization

model

Hydrofluoroether (HFE) Cleaning Fluid Replacement and Qualification

This NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Technical Assessment Report addresses the urgent need to identify, test, and qualify replacement cleaning solvents and technologies following 3M’s decision to discontinue production of hydrofluoroether (HFE) products, including Novec HFE-7100, by the end of 2025. HFE-7100 is widely used across NASA for precision cleaning of ground and flight hardware, especially in oxygen system components, and as a heat transfer fluid in high-power-density thermal control systems. The assessment evaluates commercially available replacement solvents, alternative cleaning technologies, and their compatibility with NASA’s operational requirements. Key findings include the identification of viable solvent replacements, their performance in contaminant removal, materials compatibility, and oxygen system safety. The report also explores novel cleaning approaches, including aqueous, supercritical CO₂, cryogenic aerosol, plasma, UV-ozone, magnetically optimized fluids, and induced charge active filtration, highlighting their merits, limitations, and readiness for NASA adoption. The NESC provides recommendations for solvent selection, facility adaptation, and continued technology maturation to ensure mission continuity and regulatory compliance.

Alternative Cleaning Technologies

Nitrile/Buna N Material Failure Assessment for an O-Ring used on the Gaseous Hydrogen Flow Control Valve (FCV) of the Space Shuttle Main Engine

After the rollout of Space Shuttle Discovery in April 2005 in preparation for return-to-flight, there was a failure of the Orbiter (OV-103) helium signature leak test in the gaseous hydrogen (GH2) system. Leakage was attributed to the Flow Control Valve (FCV) in Main Engine 3. The FCV determined to be the source of the leak for OV-103 is designated as LV-58. The nitrile/Buna N rubber O-ring seal was removed from LV-58, and failure analysis indicated radial cracks providing leak paths in one quadrant. Cracks were eventually found in 6 of 9 FCV O-rings among the three Shuttle Orbiters, though none were as severe as those for LV-58, OV-103. Testing by EM10 at MSFC on all 9 FCV O- rings included: laser dimensional, Shore A hardness and properties from a dynamic mechanical analyzer (DMA) and an Instron tensile machine. The following test data was obtained on the cracked quadrant of the LV-58, OV-103 O-ring: (1) the estimated compression set was only 9.5%, compared to none for the rest of the O-ring; (2) Shore A hardness for the O.D. was higher by almost 4 durometer points than for the rest of the O-ring; and (3) DMA data showed that the storage/elastic modulus E was almost 25% lower than for the rest of the O-ring. Of the 8 FCV O-rings tested on an Instron, 4 yielded tensile strengths that were below the MIL spec requirement of 1350 psi-a likely influence of rubber cracking. Comparisons were made between values of modulus determined by DNA (elastic) and Instron (Young s). Each nitrile/Buna N O-ring used in the FCV conforms to the MIL-P-25732C specification. A number of such O-rings taken from shelf storage at MSFC and Kennedy Space Center (KSC) were used to generate a reference curve of DMA glass transition temperature (Tg) vs. shelf storage time ranging from 8 to 26 years. A similar reference curve of TGA onset temperature (of rubber weight loss) vs. shelf storage time was also generated. The DMA and TGA data for the used FCV O-rings were compared to the reference curves. Correlations were also made between the DMA modulus (at 22 C) and Shore A hardness for all 9 of the FCV O-rings used among the three Shuttle Orbiters. The radial cracking in the FCV O-rings was determined to be due to ozone attack, as nitrile/Buna N rubber is susceptible to such attack. Nitrile/Buna N material under MIL-P25732C should be used in a hydraulic fluid environment to help protect it from cracking. However, the FCV O-rings were used in an air only environment. The FCV design has as much as a 9-mil gap that allows the O.D. of the O-ring to be directly exposed to ozone, pressurized air and some elevated temperatures, accelerating the weathering process that leads to O-ring cracking. Space Shuttle flights will likely not continue past 2010. Therefore, Shuttle management decided to continue using the nitrile/Buna N material for the FCVs, but have each O-ring replaced after 3 years to minimize any chances for crack initiation.

Doug Wingard

Photophoretic Propulsion Enabling Mesosphere Exploration NIAC Phase I Final Report

This Phase I report presents a comprehensive study on photophoretic flyers—innovative, ultralight, solar-powered vehicles that harness photophoretic forces generated via Knudsen pumping to achieve sustained flight in the mesosphere (50–80 km altitude). By integrating advanced materials such as nanocardboard— characterized by its extremely low areal density (~1 g/m²) and high bending stiffness—with ultrathin light-absorbing coatings, the project converts incident solar radiation directly into a directed thrust. Extensive experimental investigations, coupled with high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations using ANSYS Fluent, validate the concept across various three-dimensional geometries, including spherical, conical, and rocket-shaped configurations. These simulations bridge the gap between free-molecular and continuum flow regimes, demonstrating that optimized designs can generate lift forces sufficient to support kilogram-scale payloads even in low-pressure environments. At the heart of this innovation is the use of Knudsen pumping, where temperature gradients across porous surfaces induce directional gas flow, creating a modest overpressure that provides lift. The report introduces an analytical framework that interpolates between the well-known low-Reynolds number drag regime and the high-Reynolds number momentum theory. This model accurately predicts lift based on design parameters such as microchannel dimensions, porous wall geometry, areal density, and nozzle exit area. For instance, simulations indicate that 10-meter-scale structures with carefully engineered porous walls can achieve the necessary pressure differential to support scientifically significant payloads (~1 kg). The study also explores a hybrid propulsion approach that combines solar buoyancy with photophoretic lift. Initially, solar heating creates a buoyant force that elevates the flyer to mesospheric altitudes. Once in the optimal pressure range, the photophoretic mechanism—powered by Knudsen pumping—takes over as the primary source of lift, ensuring stable, long-duration flight. This dual-mode operation not only facilitates the deployment of photophoretic flyers but also broadens the potential applications for mesospheric exploration. In addition to propulsion, the report investigates the integration of photophoretic thrusters for trajectory control of existing research balloons in the upper stratosphere. By dynamically adjusting the nozzle orientation and controlling the flow-through velocity, these thrusters provide precise maneuverability, enabling the flyers to counteract atmospheric disturbances and adjust their flight paths in real time. For example, a photophoretic thruster approximately 7.5 by 7.5 meters in size could be unfolded below a payload gondola of a 60 million-cubic-foot zero-pressure balloon. Such a thruster can provide horizontal speed control of approximately 1 m/s using only sunlight and no moving parts (except those needed to track the Sun and control the jet direction). Importantly, photophoretic thrusters operate more efficiently at higher altitudes, which is complementary to known trajectory control techniques, such as propellers and tethered wings, which are more effective at lower altitudes. Finally, the report identifies three scientific research thrusts where mesospheric aircraft technology can have a profound impact: atmospheric tides, characterization of gravity waves, and investigation of mesospheric instabilities. Overall, the findings of this Phase I project represent a significant advancement in photophoretic propulsion technology. By demonstrating that large-scale, ultralight structures can be powered solely by solar radiation—via carefully engineered Knudsen pumping—this work lays a robust foundation for scalable, near-space flight architectures. Future refinements in material fabrication, structural optimization, and integrated trajectory control are expected to further enhance performance, paving the way for operational demonstrations that could revolutionize atmospheric science, remote sensing, and communication networks.

Knudsen Pump