Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (ORCID:0000000265474456); Ogawa, Fumiaki [Mie Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000340799518); Nakamura, Hisashi [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000317916325); Lubis, Sandro W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000166159880); Keenlyside, Noel S. [Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway)] (ORCID:0000000287086868); Paolini, Luca Famooss [Univ. of Bologna (Italy); Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Italy)]

doi:10.1038/s41467-026-71998-5

DOE OSTI · 3383094

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (ORCID:0000000265474456)·Ogawa, Fumiaki [Mie Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000340799518)·Nakamura, Hisashi [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000317916325)·Lubis, Sandro W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000166159880)·Keenlyside, Noel S. [Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway)] (ORCID:0000000287086868)·Paolini, Luca Famooss [Univ. of Bologna (Italy); Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Italy)]

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Abstract

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

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Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (ORCID:0000000265474456), Ogawa, Fumiaki [Mie Univ. (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000340799518), Nakamura, Hisashi [Univ. of Tokyo (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)] (ORCID:0000000317916325), Lubis, Sandro W. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)] (ORCID:0000000166159880), Keenlyside, Noel S. [Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway)] (ORCID:0000000287086868), Paolini, Luca Famooss [Univ. of Bologna (Italy); Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (Italy)]. 2026-04-20. Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71998-5

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