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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 2: Stratospheric and free-tropospheric response

The paper constitutes Part 2 of a study performing a first systematic inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) at various single latitudes in the tropics, as simulated by three state-of-the-art Earth system models – CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0, and GISS-E2.1-G. Building on Part 1 (Visioni et al., 2023) we demonstrate the role of biases in the climatological circulation and specific aspects of the model microphysics in driving the inter-model differences in the simulated sulfate distributions. We then characterize the simulated changes in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in the surface SAI responses discussed in Part 1. We show that the differences in the aerosol spatial distribution can be explained by the significantly faster shallow branches of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in CESM2, a relatively isolated tropical pipe and older tropical age of air in UKESM, and smaller aerosol sizes and relatively stronger horizontal mixing (thus very young stratospheric age of air) in the two GISS versions used. We also find a large spread in the magnitudes of the tropical lower-stratospheric warming amongst the models, driven by microphysical, chemical, and dynamical differences. These lead to large differences in stratospheric water vapor responses, with significant increases in stratospheric water vapor under SAI in CESM2 and GISS that were largely not reproduced in UKESM. For ozone, good agreement was found in the tropical stratosphere amongst the models with more complex microphysics, with lower stratospheric ozone changes consistent with the SAI-induced modulation of the large-scale circulation and the resulting changes in transport. In contrast, we find a large inter-model spread in the Antarctic ozone responses that can largely be explained by the differences in the simulated latitudinal distributions of aerosols as well as the degree of implementation of heterogeneous halogen chemistry on sulfate in the models. The use of GISS runs with bulk microphysics demonstrates the importance of more detailed treatment of aerosol processes, with contrastingly different stratospheric SAI responses to the models using the two-moment aerosol treatment; however, some problems in halogen chemistry in GISS are also identified that require further attention. Overall, our results contribute to an increased understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms as well as identifying and narrowing the uncertainty in model projections of climate impacts from SAI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling of Extreme Stratospheric Wave Activity in CMIP6 Models

Extreme stratospheric wave activity has been suggested to be connected to surface temperature anomalies, but some key processes are not well understood. Using observations, we show that the stratospheric events featuring weaker-than-normal wave activity are associated with increased North American (NA) cold extreme risks before and near the event onset, accompanied by less frequent atmospheric river (AR) events on the west coast of the United States. Strong stratospheric wave events, on the other hand, exhibit a tropospheric weather regime transition. Further, they are preceded by NA warm anomalies and increased AR frequency over the west coast, followed by increased risks of NA cold extremes and north-shifted ARs over the Atlantic. Moreover, these links between the stratosphere and troposphere are attributed to the vertical structure of wave coupling. Weak wave events show a wave structure of westward tilt with increasing altitudes, while strong wave events feature a shift from westward tilt to eastward tilt during their life cycle. This wave phase shift indicates vertical wave coupling and likely regional planetary wave reflection. Further examinations of CMIP6 models show that models with a degraded representation of stratospheric wave structure exhibit biases in the troposphere during strong wave events. Specifically, models with a stratospheric ridge weaker than the reanalysis exhibit a weaker tropospheric signal. Our findings suggest that the vertical coupling of extreme stratospheric wave activity should be evaluated in the model representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st-century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower-stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower-stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
DOE OSTI2025

A process-based evaluation of biases in extratropical stratosphere–troposphere coupling in subseasonal forecast systems

Abstract. Two-way coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere is recognized as an important source of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability and can open windows of opportunity for improved forecasts. Model biases can, however, lead to a poor representation of such coupling processes; drifts in a model's circulation related to model biases, resolution, and parameterizations have the potential to feed back on the circulation and affect stratosphere–troposphere coupling. We introduce a set of diagnostics using readily available data that can be used to reveal these biases and then apply these diagnostics to 22 S2S forecast systems. In the Northern Hemisphere, nearly all S2S forecast systems underestimate the strength of the observed upward coupling from the troposphere to the stratosphere, downward coupling within the stratosphere, and the persistence of lower-stratospheric temperature anomalies. While downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the near surface is well represented in the multi-model ensemble mean, there is substantial intermodel spread likely related to how well each model represents tropospheric stationary waves. In the Southern Hemisphere, the stratospheric vortex is oversensitive to upward-propagating wave flux in the forecast systems. Forecast systems generally overestimate the strength of downward coupling from the lower stratosphere to the troposphere, even as most underestimate the radiative persistence in the lower stratosphere. In both hemispheres, models with higher lids and a better representation of tropospheric quasi-stationary waves generally perform better at simulating these coupling processes.

Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature

In 1967, scientists used a simple climate model to predict that human-caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 should warm Earth’s troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This important signature of anthropogenic climate change has been documented in weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements extending from near-surface to the lower stratosphere. Stratospheric cooling has also been confirmed in the mid to upper stratosphere, a layer extending from roughly 25 to 50 km above the Earth’s surface (S 25 − 50 ). To date, however, S 25 − 50 temperatures have not been used in pattern-based attribution studies of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we perform such a “fingerprint” study with satellite-derived patterns of temperature change that extend from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. Including S 25 − 50 information increases signal-to-noise ratios by a factor of five, markedly enhancing fingerprint detectability. Key features of this global-scale human fingerprint include stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming at all latitudes, with stratospheric cooling amplifying with height. In contrast, the dominant modes of internal variability in S 25 − 50 have smaller-scale temperature changes and lack uniform sign. These pronounced spatial differences between S 25 − 50 signal and noise patterns are accompanied by large cooling of S 25 − 50 (1 to 2 ° C over 1986 to 2022) and low S 25 − 50 noise levels. Our results explain why extending “vertical fingerprinting” to the mid to upper stratosphere yields incontrovertible evidence of human effects on the thermal structure of Earth’s atmosphere.

climate modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Changes in Hadley circulation and intertropical convergence zone under strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has been proposed as a potential solution to reduce climate change and its impacts. Here, we explore the responses of the Hadley circulation (HC) intensity and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) using the strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, in which sulfur dioxide was injected into the stratosphere at four different locations to maintain the global-mean surface temperature and the interhemispheric and equator-to-pole temperature gradients at present-day values (baseline). Simulations show that, relative to the baseline, strategic stratospheric aerosol geoengineering generally maintains northern winter December–January–February (DJF) HC intensity under RCP8.5, while it overcompensates for the greenhouse gas (GHG)-forced southern winter June–July–August (JJA) HC intensity increase, producing a 3.5 ± 0.4% weakening. The residual change of southern HC intensity in JJA is mainly associated with stratospheric heating and tropospheric temperature response due to enhanced stratospheric aerosol concentrations. Geoengineering overcompensates for the GHG-driven northward ITCZ shifts, producing 0.7° ± 0.1° and 0.2° ± 0.1° latitude southward migrations in JJA and DJF, respectively relative to the baseline. These migrations are affected by tropical interhemispheric temperature differences both at the surface and in the free troposphere. Further strategies for reducing the residual change of HC intensity and ITCZ shifts under stratospheric aerosol geoengineering could involve minimizing stratospheric heating and restoring and preserving the present-day tropical tropospheric interhemispheric temperature differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validating a microphysical prognostic stratospheric aerosol implementation in E3SMv2 using observations after the Mount Pinatubo eruption

Abstract. This paper describes the addition of a stratospheric prognostic aerosol (SPA) capability – developed with the goal of accurately simulating sulfate aerosol formation and evolution in the stratosphere – in the Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 2 (E3SMv2). The implementation includes changes to the four-mode Modal Aerosol Module microphysics in the stratosphere to allow for larger particle growth and more accurate stratospheric aerosol lifetime following the Pinatubo eruption. E3SMv2-SPA reasonably reproduces stratospheric aerosol lifetime, burden, aerosol optical depth, and top-of-atmosphere flux when compared to remote sensing observations. E3SMv2-SPA also has close agreement with the interactive chemistry–climate model CESM2-WACCM (Community Earth System Model version 2–Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) – which has a more complete chemical treatment – and the observationally constrained, prescribed volcanic aerosol treatment in E3SMv2. Global stratospheric aerosol size distributions identify the nucleation and growth of sulfate aerosol from volcanically injected SO2 from both major and minor volcanic eruptions from 1991 to 1993. The modeled aerosol effective radius is consistently lower than satellite and in situ measurements (max differences of ∼ 30 %). Comparisons with in situ size distribution samples indicate that this simulated underestimation in both E3SMv2-SPA and CESM2-WACCM is due to overly small accumulation and coarse-mode aerosols 6–18 months post-eruption, with E3SMv2-SPA simulating ∼ 50 % of the coarse-mode geometric mean diameters of observations 11 months post-eruption. Effective radii from the models and observations are used to calculate offline scattering and absorption efficiencies to explore the implications of smaller simulated aerosol size for the Pinatubo climate impacts. Scattering efficiencies at wavelengths of peak solar irradiance (∼ 0.5 µm) are 10 %–80 % higher for daily samples in models relative to observations through 1993, suggesting higher diffuse radiation at the surface and a larger cooling effect in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol; absorption efficiencies at the peak wavelengths of outgoing terrestrial radiation (∼ 10 µm) are 15 %–40 % lower for daily samples in models relative to observations, suggesting an underestimation in stratospheric heating in the models due to the smaller simulated aerosol. These potential biases are based on aerosol size alone and do not take into account differences in the aerosol number. The overall agreement of E3SMv2-SPA with observations and its similar performance to the well-validated CESM2-WACCM makes E3SMv2-SPA a viable alternative to simulating climate impacts from stratospheric sulfate aerosols.

Brown, Hunter York (ORCID:0000000218147874)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Contrasting Stratospheric Smoke Mass and Lifetime From 2017 Canadian and 2019/2020 Australian Megafires: Global Simulations and Satellite Observations

Stratospheric injections of carbonaceous aerosols and combustion gases by extreme wildfires have become increasingly common. Recent “megafires,” particularly large and intense fires, delivered particulate burdens to the lower stratosphere comparable to those of moderate volcanic eruptions. The 2017 Canadian megafire generated four large Pyrocumulonimbi (pyroCbs), injecting up to ≈0.3 Tg of smoke in the lower stratosphere. Even more extreme, the 2019/2020 Australian event produced a pyroCb activity resulting in stratospheric smoke intrusions of ≈1 Tg. To understand their contrasting behavior, we present global climate simulations of the atmospheric response to these events, applying smoke burdens informed by remote observations. Model outcomes, compared to satellite data of smoke transport, reproduce reasonably well the initial plume rise, at 0.2–0.3 km/day, attaining heights of ≈20 km in Canada and above 30 km in Australia. Global dispersal of the plume occurs within about 3 weeks in both cases, consistent with observations. Smoke removal timescales, ≈5 months for the Canadian megafire, agree with remote measurements. During the Australian megafire, observations indicate stratospheric injections three times as large, and models predict comparatively longer smoke lifetimes, ≈16 months. After the latter event, atmospheric optical depths and radiative cooling achieved values close to those measured following the Pinatubo eruption. Sensitivity tests of model assumptions indicate, in accord with prior studies, that smoke burden, injection heights, and black carbon content can determine plume evolution and possible climate impacts. An empirical relation between peak heights of stratospheric plumes and lifetimes is derived that can help assess megafire impacts on the stratosphere, climate and the Earth system

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chemical imaging of individual stratospheric particles sampled over North America

The increasing size, severity, and frequency of wildfires have led to dramatic increases in particulate matter concentrations in the troposphere. Severe wildfires can generate intense convective systems capable of transporting large quantities of biomass burning organic aerosols (BBOA) to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Chemically complex organic matter and light-absorbing carbonaceous material is introduced into stratospheric regions that were historically isolated from direct surface emissions. In this study, stratospheric particles were sampled over North America during the Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) campaign, an aircraft-based research project designed to characterize convective perturbation in the UTLS. Particle samples collected from six research flights during summer 2022 were analyzed using Computer-Controlled Scanning Electron Microscopy and Scanning Transmission X-ray Microscopy to investigate particle size distributions, morphology, chemical composition, and mixing state of stratospheric particles along transects across the continental United States and adjacent Pacific Ocean airspace. Analysis revealed that all sampled particles contained detectable levels of carbon, with most exhibiting organic volume fractions of 0.37 ± 0.20. Notably, about 5% of the particles also contained soot inclusions, which indicates the presence of refractory black carbon transported to stratospheric altitudes and provides direct evidence of wildfire-derived black carbon reaching the UTLS. Typical particle morphology exhibits organic shells over soot and inorganic cores and suggests secondary processing and aging of BBOA during transport to and within the UTLS. These findings provide compelling evidence that wildfire emissions play a critical role in affecting the long-term composition and radiative properties of stratospheric particles.

Sharpe, Steven [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (↗
DOE OSTI2024

The BIRDIES Experiment: Measuring Beryllium Isotopes to Resolve Dynamics in the Stratosphere

Cosmogenic beryllium-10 and beryllium-7, and the ratio of the two (10Be/7Be), are powerful atmospheric tracers of stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) processes; however, measurements are sparse for altitudes well above the tropopause. We present a novel high-altitude balloon campaign aimed to measure these isotopes in the mid-stratosphere called Beryllium Isotopes for Resolving Dynamics in the Stratosphere (BIRDIES). BIRDIES targeted gravity waves produced by tropopause-overshooting convection to study their propagation and impact on STE dynamics, including the production of turbulence in the stratosphere. Two custom-designed payloads called FiSH and GASP were flown at altitudes approaching 30 km to measure in situ turbulence and beryllium isotopes (on aerosols), respectively. These were flown on nine high-altitude balloon flights over Kansas, USA, in summer 2022. The atmospheric samples were augmented with a ground-based rainfall collection targeting isotopic signatures of deep convection overshooting. Our GASP samples yielded mostly negligible amounts of both 10Be and 7Be collected in the mid-stratosphere but led to design improvements to increase aerosol capture in low-pressure environments. Observations from FiSH and the precipitation collection were more fruitful. FiSH showed the presence of turbulent velocity, temperature, and acoustic fluctuations in the stratosphere, including length scales in the infra-sonic range and inertial subrange that indicated times of elevated turbulence. The precipitation collection, and subsequent statistical analysis, showed that large spatial datasets of 10Be/7Be can be measured in individual rainfall events with minimum terrestrial contamination. While the spatial patterns in rainfall suggested some evidence for overshooting convection, inter-event temporal variability was clearly observed and predicted with good agreement using the 3D chemical transport model GEOS-CHEM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Lack of a QBO-MJO Connection in Climate Models With a Nudged Stratosphere

The observed stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) are strongly connected in boreal winter, with stronger MJO activity when lower-stratospheric winds are easterly. However, the current generation of climate models with internally generated representations of the QBO and MJO do not simulate the observed QBO-MJO connection, for reasons that remain unclear. Furthermore, this study builds on prior work exploring the QBO-MJO link in climate models whose stratospheric winds are relaxed toward reanalysis, reducing stratospheric biases in the model and imposing a realistic QBO. A series of ensemble experiments are performed using four state-of-the-art climate models capable of representing the MJO over the period 1980–2015, each with similar nudging in the stratosphere. In these four models, nudging leads to a good representation of QBO wind and temperature signals, however no model simulates the observed QBO-MJO relationship. Biases in MJO vertical structure and cloud-radiative feedbacks are investigated, but no conclusive model bias or mechanism is identified that explains the lack of a QBO-MJO connection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment (BIRDIE) (Field Campaign Report)

The Beryllium Isotopes in Rainfall for Stratospheric-Tropospheric Exchange Dynamics Experiment or BIRDIE was a precipitation collection campaign designed to measure cosmogenic isotopes of beryllium in rainfall and other forms of precipitation across the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory. Precipitation samples were collected over three weeks (May 21-June 10, 2022) at 11 SGP sites across a 120-km 2 domain in northern and central Oklahoma. The field campaign targeted summertime convection rain events. We aimed to capture any spatial and/or temporal variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 (10Be) and beryllium-7 (7Be) across the ARM SGP site during these rainfall events. The ratio of 10Be to 7Be (10/7Be) has been shown to be a powerful tracer for transport processes in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) system (e.g., Koch and Rind 1998). Any observed variability is analyzed to see if it could be linked to STE processes, including overshooting of deep convection clouds that penetrate the lower stratosphere. Six wet weather system events were collected within our three-week span. Five out of six of these rainfall events are classified as moderately to strongly convective. Those events are studied in more detail. The five systems also follow each other over a short period of 11 days. In our rainfall samples we observed spatial and event variability in the concentrations of beryllium-10 and -7 that resulted in variability of 10/7Be ratios. Each weather event appeared to exhibit a unique 10/7Be pattern across the domain that was not directly linked to storm total precipitation amount. To better understand the causes for this spatial variability, cloud characteristics in the domain were looked at to assess cloud type, cloud height, and depth information. We also ran Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model back trajectories to identify possible air mass and moisture origins across our events. Detailed analysis is ongoing. The purpose of this technical report is to provide background on using cosmogenic isotopes as atmospheric tracers, describe the experimental design, and present the beryllium concentration and ratio data. Lastly, we note that BIRDIE coincided with two other deep convection field campaigns in the area: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Dynamics and Chemistry of the Summer Stratosphere (DCOTSS) experiment (https://dcotss.org/) centered in Salina, Kansas, and the Targeted Observation by Radars and (uncrewed aerial systems) UAS of Supercells (TORUS) experiment (https://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/torus_2022) across the U.S. Central Plains. Additionally, a Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( LLNL) team at DCOTSS attempted to measure 10Be/7Be ratios on aerosols collected in situ in the lower and mid-stratosphere over Kansas using high-altitude balloons. Precipitation samples were also collected on the ground in Salina, Kansas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Australian wildfire smoke in the stratosphere: the decay phase in 2020/2021 and impact on ozone depletion

Abstract. Record-breaking wildfires raged in southeastern Australia in late December 2019 and early January 2020. Rather strong pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) convection developed over the fire areas and lofted enormous amounts of biomass burning smoke into the tropopause region and caused the strongest wildfire-related stratospheric aerosol perturbation ever observed around the globe. We discuss the geometrical, optical, and microphysical properties of the stratospheric smoke layers and the decay of this major stratospheric perturbation. A multiwavelength polarization Raman lidar at Punta Arenas (53.2∘ S, 70.9∘ W), southern Chile, and an elastic backscatter Raman lidar at Río Grande (53.8∘ S, 67.7∘ W) in southern Argentina, were operated to monitor the major record-breaking event until the end of 2021. These lidar measurements can be regarded as representative for mid to high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. A unique dynamical feature, an anticyclonic, smoke-filled vortex with 1000 km horizontal width and 5 km vertical extent, which ascended by about 500 m d−1, was observed over the full last week of January 2020. The key results of the long-term study are as follows. The smoke layers extended, on average, from 9 to 24 km in height. The smoke partly ascended to more than 30 km height as a result of self-lofting processes. Clear signs of a smoke impact on the record-breaking ozone hole over Antarctica in September–November 2020 were found. A slow decay of the stratospheric perturbation detected by means of the 532 nm aerosol optical thickness (AOT) yielded an e-folding decay time of 19–20 months. The maximum smoke AOT was around 1.0 over Punta Arenas in January 2020 and thus 2 to 3 orders of magnitude above the stratospheric aerosol background of 0.005. After 2 months with strongly varying smoke conditions, the 532 nm AOT decreased to 0.03-0.06 from March–December 2020 and to 0.015–0.03 throughout 2021. The particle extinction coefficients at 532 nm were in the range of 10–75 Mm−1 in January 2020 and, later on, mostly between 1 and 5 Mm−1. Combined lidar–photometer retrievals revealed typical smoke extinction-to-backscatter ratios of 69 ± 19 sr (at 355 nm), 91 ± 17 sr (at 532 nm), and 120 ± 22 sr (at 1064 nm). An ozone reduction of 20 %–25 % in the 15–22 km height range was observed over Antarctica and New Zealand ozonesonde stations in the smoke-polluted air, with particle surface area concentrations of 1–5 µm2 cm−3.

Ohneiser, Kevin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models – Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes

There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO 2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO 2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO 2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations. We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7 K per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7 K in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO 2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗