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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Operator Workflows for Real-Time Reliability Studies: A Review of Control Room Practices and Naturalistic Decision Making

This report provides an overview of real-time reliability study tools and their use by power system operators in the control room environment. After introducing some of the nuances of the control room environment and the differences in perspectives between power system engineers and operators, the roles and responsibilities of key entities involved in RTCA workflows are introduced. These are specifically the transmission system operator (TOP) and reliability coordinator (RC), which are required to run tools such as real-time contingency analysis (RTCA) as part of a real-time reliability assessment every 30 minutes, as dictated by a series of standards issued by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The process by which power systems operators operate the grid is discussed in terms of naturalistic decision making (NDM) and the recognition-primed decision-making (RPD) model. This cognitive model describe how experts working in high-risk, high-stress environments make safety-critical decisions under uncertainty and time pressure. For power system operators, the mental simulations involved in the traditional RPD model are supplemented by physics-based simulations using numerical tools, such as RTCA, to improve situational awareness and effectiveness of control actions. Next, a generic workflow is introduced to describe operator decision making for running RTCA tools and responding to system violations on a pre-contingent basis. The types of analysis performed and control actions chosen by power system operators are described in detail. The overall high-level workflow is then expanded in subsequent sections, with special attention given to high-voltage violations, low-voltage violations, and thermal overloads. Each type of violation is described in detail, with explanations of common causes, impacts on equipment and customers, and mitigation strategies. An additional workflow diagram is provided for each type of violation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

What Technical Choices Matter to Characterize Heat Wave and Cold Snap Events in Support of Bulk Power Grid Reliability Studies?

Extreme weather events, such as Heat Waves (HW) and Cold Snaps (CS), pose significant risks to the power grid. The United States (U.S.) Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 896 mandates regional coordination standards that account for extreme thermal events. However, the lack of a universal definition for extreme thermal events may lead to inconsistent compliance efforts among neighboring entities, undermining the reliability of the transmission system. This study directly addresses this challenge by systematically evaluating how varying technical choices in defining HW and CS fundamentally impact the characterization and ranking of extreme events for power grid reliability studies. We used 12 event definitions and multiple temperature spatial aggregation approaches to construct historical (1980–2024) regional extreme thermal event libraries across North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) subregions in the conterminous U.S. We examined the sensitivity of event characteristics (e.g., duration, frequency, intensity, and spatial coverage) to different definitions. While some definitions produced similar libraries and top event rankings, definitions based on moving-window-averaged temperatures yielded markedly different characteristics. Spatial aggregation methods had minimal impact on heat wave or cold snap intensity, frequency and duration but significantly influenced spatial coverage. The top events identified across different aggregation methods were consistent, but their ranking order varied. These findings offer critical insights for characterizing and selecting extreme thermal events and for supporting local and cross-regional coordination as required by reliability standards.

Wan, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2026

Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants

The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Human reliability analysis studies from simulator experiments using Bayesian inference

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of complex facilities is performed to arrive at the risk posed by them. PSA also accounts for the contribution of the human errors towards the overall risk through Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in terms of Human Error Probability (HEP). Human operators are part of the system and do not work in isolation. Their performance is influenced by the context in which the actions are performed. As a result, quantification of HEP requires operator performance data under the given context. Some good sources of operator performance data are plant‘s operation data, simulator data and expert judgement. The plant operation data pertaining to HRA is generally sparse. In this situation, a full scope plant simulator provides a good alternative for operator performance data generation. Many of the currently practiced HRA methods have been developed by combining the empirical evidence with expert judgement and contain a lot of uncertainty in their estimates. Bayesian inference is suitable for updating the prior HRA estimates with the simulator evidence to obtain the posterior HEP. Here, posterior HEP has been calculated for postulated accident scenarios in advanced reactor (first of its kind) at design stage, using plant simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inferring Reliability Model Parameters from Expert Opinion

Here, we propose a method for constructing bathtub models of reliability from opinion. The method is intended for reliability studies early in the design and prototyping of a new system, before data concerning reliability has become available. A stylized bathtub curve is presented for soliciting best engineering judgement from technical experts. By pooling these stylized curves, we produce data that can be used to infer parameters for a piece-wise Weibull model of reliability. A numerical example demonstrates the practicality of the method while also highlighting potential pitfalls when working with subjective data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Direct Metallization with Reactive Inks – Assessment of Reliability and Process Sensitivities

This project will reduce silver consumption in photovoltaic cells by a factor of almost ten – from 95 mg/cell (the median across technologies) to 10 mg/cell. To achieve this goal, we will replace screen-printed silver pastes with contact dispensed reactive inks that produce lower resistivity metallizations at lower temperatures and with thinner films. This project will generate the understanding necessary to scale this reactive ink technology from the bench-scale to commercial throughputs. Specifically, it will combine fundamental understanding on physics and chemistries involved in contact printing of reactive inks with detailed performance and reliability studies to quantify how tightly processing parameters need to be controlled in order to reliably metallize high efficiency solar cells at commercial throughputs of 36,000 cells/hour.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Partial-wave projection of the one-particle exchange in three-body scattering amplitudes

As the study of three-hadron physics from lattice QCD matures, it is necessary to develop proper analysis tools in order to reliably study a variety of phenomena, including resonance spectroscopy and nuclear structure. Reconstructing the three-particle scattering amplitude requires solving integral equations, which can be written in terms of data-constrained dynamical functions and physical on shell quantities. The driving term in these equations is the so-called one-particle exchange, which leads to a kinematic divergence for particles on mass shell. A vital component in defining three-particle amplitudes with definite parity and total angular momentum, which are used in spectroscopic studies, is to project the one-particle exchange into definite partial waves. We present a general procedure to construct exact analytic partial-wave projections of the one-particle exchange contribution for any system composed of three spinless hadrons. Our result allows one full control over the analytic structure of the projection, which we explore for some low-lying partial waves with applications to three pions. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hy-DAT: A Tool to Address Hydropower Modeling Gaps Using Interdependency, Efficiency Curves, and Unit Dispatch Models

As the power system continues to be flooded with intermittent resources, it becomes more important to accurately assess the role of hydro and its impact on the power grid. While hydropower generation has been studied for decades, dependency of power generation on water availability and constraints in hydro operation are not well represented in power system models used in the planning and operation of large-scale interconnection studies. There are still multiple modeling gaps that need to be addressed; if not, they can lead to inaccurate operation and planning reliability studies, and consequently to unintentional load shedding or even blackouts. As a result, it is very important thathydropower is represented correctly in both steady-state and dynamic power system studies. In this paper, we discuss the development and use of the Hydrological Dispatch and Analysis Tool (Hy-DAT) as an interactive graphical user interface (GUI), that uses a novel methodology to address the hydropower modeling gaps like water availability and inter-dependency using a database, and algorithms, to generate accurate representative models for power system simulation.

Wang, Dewei↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydropower Modeling Gaps in Planning and Operational Studies

In the evolving power system, where new renewable resources displace continually conventional generation and hydro becomes a single traditional resource that is fully controllable, it is timely to examine hydrogeneration’s role in the power system of the future and its representation in power system operation and planning reliability studies. This paper identifies some of the gaps in hydro-based generation representation in steady-state and dynamic models and provides recommendations for their mitigation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review: Preprint

Power system resilience is an emerging hot topic in recent years to study the increasing threats of extreme events such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although many research works have been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted resilience metrics and evaluation methods makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems like what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, we first review the definitions of resilience and summarized two core concepts shared by most literature. On top of that, we conduct a thorough review of resilience metrics and develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives, i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation, to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. Existing resilience metrics are summarized and categorized using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating power grid model hydropower feasibility with a river operations model

Production cost models (PCMs) simulate dispatch of generators across a large power grid and are used widely by planners to study the reliability of electricity supply. As energy systems transition away from the thermoelectric technologies that have traditionally balanced electricity supply and demand, hydropower and its representation in PCMs is of increasing importance. A limitation of PCMs applied to continental power grids with diverse generation portfolios is that hydropower generation is simulated without full consideration of complex river dynamics, leading to possible misrepresentation of grid flexibility and performance. In addition, data used in PCMs may reflect outdated operating policies. In this paper we propose a hydropower generation feasibility test for PCMs. The approach uses a detailed hydropower model to determine whether the hourly hydropower schedule from a PCM with simplified monthly parameterization can be attained after accounting for realistic river dynamics and operating policies, such as spill requirements and general water movement and balance through a cascade reservoir system. We perform this hydropower generation test for the ‘Big 10’ hydropower system on the Columbia River (part of the Western Interconnect of the United States), revealing 9% overestimation of available hydropower generation in a PCM solution in an average hydrologic year. Our evaluation provides insight on the cost and opportunities for better representing hydropower in PCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Power System Resilience Evaluation Framework and Metric Review

Power system resilience has been an emerging hot topic in recent years to investigate the increasing threats of extreme events, such as natural disasters, severe weather, and cyberattacks. Although much research has been done to define, model, and quantify resilience from different aspects, the lack of universally accepted evaluation methods and resilience metrics makes it difficult to assess and compare resilience across different power systems, such as what is typically done in power system reliability studies. In this paper, first, we review the definitions of resilience, and we summarize two core concepts shared by most of the literature. Then, we develop a new framework to assess power system resilience from two perspectives - i.e., pre-event estimation and post-event evaluation - to capture system resilience performance in both general and specific fashions. We conduct a thorough review of existing resilience metrics and categorize them using the proposed framework, where recommendations are also proposed to capture core concepts of resilience.

power system resilience↗
DOE OSTI2026

Representation and Impact of Water Head on Power System Planning and Operation

Representing water head information in power system model files, can provide a more realistic model of the system and thereby inform operation and planning personnel in the decision-making process. This article describes a procedure for modifying the power system model files (steady-state and dynamic) to represent water head information. Additionally, the impact of representing the water head on power system reliability studies including contingency analysis, cascading failure analysis and dynamic frequency response analysis has been investigated, using the modified power system models. This paper considers the detailed Western Electricity Coordination Council model during summer and winter conditions as the test system for the impact analysis. Results show that under reduced water head: 1) the number of critical voltage and branch flow violations increases; 2) chances of cascading failure and island formation increases; and 3) frequency nadir decreases as compared to those of the base cases where the water head information is not represented.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Data-Driven User-Defined Model for Inverter-based and Conventional Power Plants

Recent events in Odessa [1], [2] have shed light on the complexities of integrating large Inverter-Based Resource (IBR) plants with the transmission system, prompting NERC to stress continuous performance monitoring by transmission operators. Challenges such as plant control updates, IBR model revisions, Phase-locked loop loss of synchronism, and protection events have been identified, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring protocols by regulatory bodies. The recent FERC 901 order underscores the importance of accurate data exchange regarding IBRs for reliability studies. However, limited access to IBR plant-related data hampers effective decision-making for transmission operators (TOP). This paper proposes a method for constructing data-driven User-Defined dynamic Models (UDM) for power plants for validating multiple-event data using field measurements from interconnection bus locations. The problem is formulated as a power plant model identification problem and a multi-task learning approach under partial input observability assumptions is proposed in this work. This approach aims to predict aggregated responses of conventional and IBR power plants during various dynamic physical events which is useful for planning studies under diverse disturbance conditions. Ultimately, this methodology emphasizes the importance of plant visibility to operators in addressing power system challenges, facilitating improved planning and operational studies.

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗