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DOE OSTI · 2573697

Inferring Reliability Model Parameters from Expert Opinion

Nutaro, James J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000173602836)
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Abstract

Here, we propose a method for constructing bathtub models of reliability from opinion. The method is intended for reliability studies early in the design and prototyping of a new system, before data concerning reliability has become available. A stylized bathtub curve is presented for soliciting best engineering judgement from technical experts. By pooling these stylized curves, we produce data that can be used to infer parameters for a piece-wise Weibull model of reliability. A numerical example demonstrates the practicality of the method while also highlighting potential pitfalls when working with subjective data.

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Nutaro, James J. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000173602836). 2024-12-15. Inferring Reliability Model Parameters from Expert Opinion. https://doi.org/10.1109/wsc63780.2024.10838755

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