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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern influence simulated prescribed fire effects

Background: Forest structural characteristics, the burning environment, and the choice of ignition pattern each influence prescribed fire behaviors and resulting fire effects; however, few studies examine the influences and interactions of these factors. Understanding how interactions among these drivers can influence prescribed fire behavior and effects is crucial for executing prescribed fires that can safely and effectively meet management objectives. To analyze the interactions between the fuels complex and ignition patterns, we used FIRETEC, a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics fire behavior model, to simulate fire behavior and effects across a range of horizontal and vertical forest structural complexities. For each forest structure, we then simulated three different prescribed fires each with a unique ignition pattern: strip-head, dot, and alternating dot. Results: Forest structural complexity and ignition pattern affected the proportions of simulated crown scorch, consumption, and damage for prescribed fires in a dry, fire-prone ecosystem. Prescribed fires in forests with complex canopy structures resulted in increased crown consumption, scorch, and damage compared to less spatially complex forests. The choice of using a strip-head ignition pattern over either a dot or alternating-dot pattern increased the degree of crown foliage scorched and damaged, though did not affect the proportion of crown consumed. We found no evidence of an interaction between forest structural complexity and ignition pattern on canopy fuel consumption, scorch, or damage. Conclusions: We found that forest structure and ignition pattern, two powerful drivers of fire behavior that forest managers can readily account for or even manipulate, can be leveraged to influence fire behavior and the resultant fire effects of prescribed fire. These simulation findings have critical implications for how managers can plan and perform forest thinning and prescribed burn treatments to meet risk management or ecological objectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of smoke from prescribed fire on road visibility

Prescribed fires are planned to achieve conservation and fuel reduction objectives while minimizing smoke ground concentration to limit health impacts and road visibility impairment. Prescribed burns cannot indeed be conducted if those hazards are not within predefined limits. This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate road visibility that overcomes the limitation of the state of the art model, VSMOKE. The framework leverages the fast-running framework QUIC-Fire/QUIC-SMOKE to capture fire and smoke dynamics, and the timing and duration of hazardous conditions on the road network close to the burn unit (within 50–100 km). The paper presents parametric study using a real burn plot at Fort Stewart (GA, USA), under hypothetical wind conditions to understand the interplay between buoyancy and smoke dilution. Here, results showed that faster winds caused fire escape while slower winds did not achieve a complete burn. Furthermore, faster winds featured brief road visibility reduction below braking distance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Case study of UAS ignition of prescribed fire in a mixedwood on the William B. Bankhead National Forest, Alabama

Abstract Background For at least four decades, practitioners have recognized advantages of aerial versus ground ignition for maximizing the effectiveness of prescribed fires. For example, larger areas can be ignited in less time, or ignition energy may be variously targeted over an area in accordance with the uneven distribution of fuels. The maturation of wireless communication, geopositioning systems, and unmanned aerial systems (UAS) has enhanced those advantages, and UAS approaches also provide further advantages relative to helicopter ignitions, such as reduced risk to human safety, lower operating costs, and higher operational flexibility. In a long running study at the Bankhead National Forest in northcentral Alabama, prescribed fire has been used for nearly 20 years. Most of the burns have been hand-ignited via drip torches, while some have been aerially ignited via helicopter. In March 2022, for the first time, a UAS was used to ignite prescribed fires across a landscape that included a long-term research stand. This field note relates comparisons of both fire behavior and fuel consumption metrics for the UAS-ignited burn versus previous burns on the same stand, and versus burns of other research stands in the same year. Results The UAS-ignited prescribed fire experienced burn effects similar to those from ground-ignited prescribed fires on the same stand in previous years, as well as those from ground-ignited prescribed fires on other stands in the same year. Conclusion This post hoc analysis suggests that UAS ignition approaches may be sufficient for achieving prescribed burn goals, thereby enabling practitioners to realize the advantages offered by that ignition mode.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Burn parameters affect PAH emissions at conditions relevant for prescribed fires

Wildfire smoke is a health hazard as it contains carcinogenic volatile compounds and fine particulate matter. In particular, exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is a major concern, since these compounds have been recognized as important contributors to the overall carcinogenic risk. In this work, gas and particle-phase PAH emissions from combustion of Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) were quantified using time-of-flight mass spectrometry over a range of burn conditions representative of wildfires and prescribed fires, including fuel moisture, heat flux, and oxygen concentration. We found that changing the burn environment lead to a variability of up to 77% in phenanthrene/anthracene emissions. This could explain a large part of the variability in PAH emission factors from biomass combustion reported in the literature. Here, we found that optimal conditions for fuel moisture content of 20–30%, sample heat load of 60 - 70 kW m -2 , and oxygen concentrations of 5–15% can significantly reduce the emissions of heavy molar weight PAHs. Our analysis showed that the relative carcinogenic risk from PAH exposure can be reduced by more than 50% under optimal conditions. In light of the increasing use of prescribed fire for forest management, the relationship between emissions and burn conditions that we have established provides a guidance for assessing the expected health impact from prescription burns, and can inform strategies to reduce PAH emissions from prescribed fire activities.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗
DOE OSTI2024

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Cst Crossett Experimental Forest

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Cst Crossett Experimental Forest. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Cst Crossett Experimental Forest produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The study takes place in the Crossett Experimental Forest (CEF, 32°2′ N, 91°57′ W), which was established in 1934 with the objective of developing effective management protocols for loblolly and shortleaf pine forests in the Gulf Coastal Plain. Mean annual temperature and precipitation are 17.6 °C and 1,410 mm, respectively. Most of the soils on and near the CEF are silt loams (primarily Glossaquic Fragiudalfs). The tower is situated in the the old-growth pine management sector of the CEF, which emphasizes management for old-growth-like conditions, with the goal of emulating the structural and compositional attributes of historic forests from this region using a combination of timber harvesting, prescribed fire, and other tools. This includes periodic commercial logging of intermediate-sized loblolly pines to support further restoration treatments, such as prescribed fire, hardwood and exotic species competition control, and the increase of plant species more compatible with fire (e.g., shortleaf pine and understory grasses)

Novick, Kim↗
DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Slt Silas Little- New Jersey

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Slt Silas Little- New Jersey. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Slt Silas Little- New Jersey produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Wildfires, prescribed fires, insect defoliation events and windstorms are the common disturbances in the NJ Pinelands. The oak-dominated forest at Silas Little Experimental Forest was most recently defoliated by Gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) in 2006 to 2008, with complete defoliation occuring in 2007. Following this multi-year defoliation event, oak mortality was significant, and resulted in the death of approximately 20 % of the overstory oaks, and a similar reduction in stand biomass. Previous disturbances have included windstorms and earlier Gypsy moth defoliation events in the 1990's. The last major wildfire to occur at and near the Experimental Forest was in 1963. Since then, a number of prescribed fires have been conducted in the vicinity of the Silas Little flux site.

Clark, Kenneth [USDA Forest Service]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree mortality after a spring fire: the role of reduced live leaf area in depletion of early growing season bole NSC

Prescribed fire is used as a tool to achieve various ecological objectives in fire-adapted ecosystems (Ryan et al. 2013). These objectives often include targeted mortality of encroaching species to minimize the risk of catastrophic wildfire (Ryan et al. 2013). Achieving mortality of some species while protecting others requires a foundational understanding of how different species respond to different types of fire at different times of year.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermochemical Transformation of Calcium during Biomass Burning and the Effects on Postfire Aqueous Dissolution of Macronutrients

Calcium is commonly the most abundant element in fire residues and its speciation largely determines the geochemical properties of fire residues and their effects on postfire soil chemistry. To explore the effects of biomass composition and fire conditions on ash Ca speciation, this study characterizes the speciation of Ca in charcoal and ash samples that were derived from different plant compartments and thermal conditions, using Ca K-edge X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy. Results showed that biomass contains abundant organic Ca complexes, which were mineralized into fairchildite and calcite after heating at 450 to 600 °C and then CaO, as temperature increased to 750 °C. Apatite could be an abundant Ca species in fire residues if the Ca/P molar ratio of the biomass is small (<2). The mineralization of organic Ca to the identified Ca minerals during burning was negligibly affected by the oxygen level. Calcium speciation in prescribed fire residues resembled that of biomass ash burned at 550 °C with similar Ca/P molar ratios. Batch experiments showed that macronutrients (Ca, Mg, K, and P) were differentially released, as a result of different solubility of minerals in ashes and reprecipitation of minerals. The aqueous solubility of Ca, Mg, and P decreased as pH increased from 5 to 9, while K showed no pH dependency and was almost completely soluble. Results from this study improve our understanding of the chemistry of fire residues and their geochemical behaviors, which can help evaluate the impact of fire on postfire soil properties and macronutrient cycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wildfire management decisions outweigh mechanical treatment as the keystone to forest landscape adaptation

Modern land management faces unprecedented uncertainty regarding future climates, novel disturbance regimes, and unanticipated ecological feedbacks. Mitigating this uncertainty requires a cohesive landscape management strategy that utilizes multiple methods to optimize benefits while hedging risks amidst uncertain futures. We used a process-based landscape simulation model (LANDIS-II) to forecast forest management, growth, climate effects, and future wildfire dynamics, and we distilled results using a decision support tool allowing us to examine tradeoffs between alternative management strategies. We developed plausible future management scenarios based on factorial combinations of restoration-oriented thinning prescriptions, prescribed fire, and wildland fire use. Results were assessed continuously for a 100-year simulation period, which provided a unique assessment of tradeoffs and benefits among seven primary topics representing social, ecological, and economic aspects of resilience. Projected climatic changes had a substantial impact on modeled wildfire activity. In the Wildfire Only scenario (no treatments, but including active wildfire and climate change), we observed an upwards inflection point in area burned around mid-century (2060) that had detrimental impacts on total landscape carbon storage. While simulated mechanical treatments (~ 3% area per year) reduced the incidence of high-severity fire, it did not eliminate this inflection completely. Scenarios involving wildland fire use resulted in greater reductions in high-severity fire and a more linear trend in cumulative area burned. Mechanical treatments were beneficial for subtopics under the economic topic given their positive financial return on investment, while wildland fire use scenarios were better for ecological subtopics, primarily due to a greater reduction in high-severity fire. Benefits among the social subtopics were mixed, reflecting the inevitability of tradeoffs in landscapes that we rely on for diverse and countervailing ecosystem services. This study provides evidence that optimal future scenarios will involve a mix of active and passive management strategies, allowing different management tactics to coexist within and among ownerships classes. Our results also emphasize the importance of wildfire management decisions as central to building more robust and resilient future landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux US-ABb Archbold ungrazed seminative pasture

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ABb Archbold ungrazed seminative pasture. Site Description - Semi-native pasture used for grazing since the early 1900's. Prescribed fire every 2-3 years. There is no record of any soil amendments of fertilizer applied. Soil is sandy loamy. Malabar serie. Grazing was removed in 2013 for the period of the study 2013-2015.

Bernacchi, Carl [Global Change and Photosynthesis ↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux US-ABa Archbold grazed seminative pasture

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ABa Archbold grazed seminative pasture. Site Description - Grazing since the early 1900s. Prescribed fire every 2-3 years. There is no record of any soil amendments or fertilizer applied. Soils are sandy loamy. Malabar soil.

Bernacchi, Carl [Global Change and Photosynthesis ↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-ABa Archbold grazed seminative pasture

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ABa Archbold grazed seminative pasture. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ABa Archbold grazed seminative pasture produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Grazing since the early 1900s. Prescribed fire every 2-3 years. There is no record of any soil amendments or fertilizer applied. Soils are sandy loamy. Malabar soil.

Bernacchi, Carl [Global Change and Photosynthesis ↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-ABb Archbold ungrazed seminative pasture

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ABb Archbold ungrazed seminative pasture. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ABb Archbold ungrazed seminative pasture produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Semi-native pasture used for grazing since the early 1900's. Prescribed fire every 2-3 years. There is no record of any soil amendments of fertilizer applied. Soil is sandy loamy. Malabar serie. Grazing was removed in 2013 for the period of the study 2013-2015.

Bernacchi, Carl [Global Change and Photosynthesis ↗
DOE OSTI2024

LAACI – Light Absorbing Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Experiment

The “Light Absorbing Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Experiment” project aimed at studying the interactions of light-absorbing aerosols from biomass burning (e.g., wildfires or prescribed fires) with clouds. The core of the project was carried out at the Michigan Technological University turbulent cloud chamber facility (hereafter referred to as the Pi-Chamber). Light-absorbing aerosols from biomass burning include black carbon (BC) and brown carbon (BrC) organic material.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computing material volume fractions on a superimposed mesh as applied to Monte Carlo particle transport simulations

Here, we present a newly implemented ray tracing algorithm in OpenMC for efficiently computing material volume fractions on superimposed meshes in complex geometries. By firing rays along each coordinate direction through the geometry, the approach accumulates track-length data in each mesh element, thereby determining the fractional composition of each material. Scaling studies on three different models—a random tetrahedra configuration, the Frascati Neutron Generator ITER dose rate benchmark, and a stellarator design—show excellent parallel performance, with nearly linear speedup on modern multi-threaded and distributed-memory systems. An analysis of the residual error relative to high-resolution reference solutions demonstrated that under optimal conditions it decreases as 1/R, where R is the number of rays fired, making it straightforward to achieve user-prescribed accuracy. This new functionality enables practical, mesh-based approaches for detailed nuclear analyses in production Monte Carlo workflows without resorting to expensive, fully conformal or unstructured meshing.

Monte Carlo↗