Machine Learning-Based Predictive State Estimation
This talk presents the machine-based predictive state estimation method developed in Grid Optimization with Solar (GO-Solar) project.
41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “predictive state estimation”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Predictive Sea State Estimation for Automated Ride Control and Handling - PSSEARCH
PSSEARCH provides predictive sea state estimation, coupled with closed-loop feedback control for automated ride control. It enables a manned or unmanned watercraft to determine the 3D map and sea state conditions in its vicinity in real time. Adaptive path-planning/ replanning software and a control surface management system will then use this information to choose the best settings and heading relative to the seas for the watercraft. PSSEARCH looks ahead and anticipates potential impact of waves on the boat and is used in a tight control loop to adjust trim tabs, course, and throttle settings. The software uses sensory inputs including IMU (Inertial Measurement Unit), stereo, radar, etc. to determine the sea state and wave conditions (wave height, frequency, wave direction) in the vicinity of a rapidly moving boat. This information can then be used to plot a safe path through the oncoming waves. The main issues in determining a safe path for sea surface navigation are: (1) deriving a 3D map of the surrounding environment, (2) extracting hazards and sea state surface state from the imaging sensors/map, and (3) planning a path and control surface settings that avoid the hazards, accomplish the mission navigation goals, and mitigate crew injuries from excessive heave, pitch, and roll accelerations while taking into account the dynamics of the sea surface state. The first part is solved using a wide baseline stereo system, where 3D structure is determined from two calibrated pairs of visual imagers. Once the 3D map is derived, anything above the sea surface is classified as a potential hazard and a surface analysis gives a static snapshot of the waves. Dynamics of the wave features are obtained from a frequency analysis of motion vectors derived from the orientation of the waves during a sequence of inputs. Fusion of the dynamic wave patterns with the 3D maps and the IMU outputs is used for efficient safe path planning.
Huntsberger, Terrance L.↗
Performance Evaluation of an Advanced Distributed Energy Resource Management Algorithm
This paper presents performance evaluation of a new distributed energy resource management system (DERMS) algorithm via an advanced hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. The HIL platform provides realistic testing in a laboratory environment, including the accurate modeling of sub-transmission and distribution networks, the DERMS software controller, and 84 power hardware solar photovoltaic (PV) inverters, standard communication protocols, and a capacitor bank controller. The DERMS algorithm is also called, Grid-Optimization of Solar (GO-Solar) platform which includes predictive state estimation (PSE) and online multiple objective optimization (OMOO) to dispatch the legacy devices and distributed energy resources (e.g., PV). The voltage regulation performance is evaluated under three scenarios, volt-var smart inverter (baseline), and DERMS control for 100% and 30% of PV. The results show that controlling 30% of PV systems with the GO-Solar platform may provide the best balance of control performance and implementation cost.
distributed energy resource management system (DER↗
Machine-learning-based state estimation and predictive control of nonlinear processes
Not Available
Alhajeri, Mohammed S.↗
Predictive control and estimation - State space approach
A modified output prediction procedure and a new controller design based on the predictive control law are presented. A new predictive estimator enhances system performance. The predictive controller was designed and applied to the tracking control of the NASA/JPL 70-m antenna. Simulation results show significant improvement in tracking performance over the linear quadratic controller and estimator presently in use.
Gawronski, W.↗
OT Operational Anomaly Detection (OAD) T&D + DER
The growth of utility-scale renewable energy resources, distributed energy resources (DER), and transportation electrification has increased uncertainty and cybersecurity risks in power grids. The Purdue Enterprise Reference Architecture model which is widely adopted by the utility industry is now insufficient to protect the power grid against cyber-attacks. There is a need to identify what cybersecurity model is effective on Energy Management System (EMS), Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS), and DER Management System (DERMS) to address the fundamental cybersecurity challenges in the age of increasing renewable energy and DER share as well as consumer participation in the electric energy industry. The next generation of cybersecurity model for OT network should be able to detect inside attackers, mitigate the cybersecurity risks arising from the new grid participants including DER aggregators, electric vehicle owners, and behind-the-meter consumers outside the utility company, and develop the strategy to trust consumer measurement data. This panel will discuss the challenges and pathways for the development of an ensemble cybersecurity model based on predictive state estimation to detect cybersecurity anomalies in OT network including EMS, ADMS, and DERMS.
cybersecurity↗
Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields using load estimations via state observers
Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields usually involves temporal superposition of its characteristic g-function, using load aggregation schemes to reduce computational times. Assuming that the ground has linear properties, it can be modeled as a linear state space system where the states are the aggregated loads. However, the application and accuracy of these models is compromised when the borefield is already operating and its load history is not registered or there are gaps in the data. This paper assesses the performance of state observers to estimate the borefield load history and obtain accurate fluid predictions. Results show that both Time-Varying Kalman Filter (TVKF) and Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE) provide predictions with average and maximum errors below 0.1 $^\circ C$ and 1 $^\circ C$ respectively. MHE outperforms TVKF in terms of n-step ahead output predictions and load history profile at the expenses of about 5 times more computational time.
Figueroa, Iago C.↗
Cerebellar dynamic state estimation for biomorphic robot arm
The cerebellum has been called the brain's 'engine of agility'. This paper presents a cerebellar-inspired neural network that performs dynamic state estimation and predictive control.
dynamic state estimation↗
Extended active disturbance rejection controller
Multiple designs, systems, methods and processes for controlling a system or plant using an extended active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) based controller are presented. The extended ADRC controller accepts sensor information from the plant. The sensor information is used in conjunction with an extended state observer in combination with a predictor that estimates and predicts the current state of the plant and a co-joined estimate of the system disturbances and system dynamics. The extended state observer estimates and predictions are used in conjunction with a control law that generates an input to the system based in part on the extended state observer estimates and predictions as well as a desired trajectory for the plant to follow.
Gao, Zhiqiang↗
Extended Active Disturbance Rejection Controller
Multiple designs, systems, methods and processes for controlling a system or plant using an extended active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) based controller are presented. The extended ADRC controller accepts sensor information from the plant. The sensor information is used in conjunction with an extended state observer in combination with a predictor that estimates and predicts the current state of the plant and a co-joined estimate of the system disturbances and system dynamics. The extended state observer estimates and predictions are used in conjunction with a control law that generates an input to the system based in part on the extended state observer estimates and predictions as well as a desired trajectory for the plant to follow.
Gao, Zhiqiang↗
Extended Active Disturbance Rejection Controller
Multiple designs, systems, methods and processes for controlling a system or plant using an extended active disturbance rejection control (ADRC) based controller are presented. The extended ADRC controller accepts sensor information from the plant. The sensor information is used in conjunction with an extended state observer in combination with a predictor that estimates and predicts the current state of the plant and a co-joined estimate of the system disturbances and system dynamics. The extended state observer estimates and predictions are used in conjunction with a control law that generates an input to the system based in part on the extended state observer estimates and predictions as well as a desired trajectory for the plant to follow.
Gao, Zhiqiang↗
Assessment of TLE-Based Orbit Determination and Prediction for Cubesats
The IceCube satellite is a 3U cubesat which was deployed from the International Space Station Nanoracks in May 2017. IceCube uses onboard Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements for both science data processing and orbit determination; additionally, IceCube uses Two Line Element (TLE) sets provided by USSTRATCOM through Space Track for ground station acquisition. Once acquired, GPS measurements are downlinked and can be verified against nearby TLE states.TLE sets are typically used for cubesat acquisition data, however the accuracy of their propagation has a limited lifespan which can cause issues when using an older TLE to attempt spacecraft acquisition. This presentation details the merits of TLE-based orbit determination and prediction and discusses techniques for improving both. These refinements allow for improved cubesat acquisition as well as calibration and on-orbit checkout of the GPS. Using IceCube data as representative of a typical cubesat, TLE states are simulated as tracking data and processed through an Extended Kalman Filter. This filtered solution provides not only an ongoing estimate of spacecraft drag state parameters, but also improves the definitive orbit determination estimation as well as the propagation accuracy and therefore spacecraft acquisition. Next, using the definitive TLE-based solution, raw GPS measurements are introduced into the filter where the combined measurement types allow the GPS measurements to be subsequently calibrated with respect to an unknown timing bias. These analyses provide a more accurate state estimation and prediction of cubesats during early orbit operations. Additionally, these techniques showcase methods for TLE-based state estimation and GPS calibration when other methods of tracking are unavailable.
Smith, Alexander↗
Implementation of a Battery Health Monitor and Vertical Lift Aircraft Testbed for the Application of an Electrochemisty-Based State of Charge Estimator
Prediction methods concerning remaining charge in lithium-ion batteries that power unmanned aerial vehicles are of critical concern for the safe fulfillment of mission objectives. In recent years, lithium-ion batteries have been the power source for both fixed wing and vertical lift electric vehicles. The purpose of this document is to describe in detail the implementation of a battery health monitor for estimating the state of charge of a lithium-ion battery and a lithium-ion polymer battery that is used to power a vertical lift aircraft test-bed. It will be demonstrated that an electro-chemistry based state of charge estimator effectively tracks battery discharge characteristics and may be employed as a useful tool in monitoring battery health.
Potteiger, Timothy R.↗
Integration of AI/ML with Data Assimilation for Earth System Prediction
Focal Area(s): Development of dynamically consistent AI/ML methods that can integrate with the data assimilation cycle to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of state estimation and prediction at short to medium range forecast horizons. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses a first step toward complete integration of AI/ML and DA. Here, we address model emulation and its application to simple coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics for use in data assimilation applications.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Kalman-like estimation for static distributed systems Antenna shape from radiation measurements
This paper advances an approach to the determination of shape of static distributed systems. It also illustrates the application of the approach to the problems of surface diagnosis of large parabolic reflectors. The estimation methods developed combine in an optimal sense the information from an elliptic model of the structure and from measurements of the structural deflection and of the far-field pattern changes due to the structural deformation. The estimators have a predictor-corrector structure, quite similar to that of a Kalman filter. The system model is first used to obtain a predicted estimate. A correction term is then added to the prediction to obtain the final state estimate. The relative weighting between prediction and correction terms is determined by an estimator gain. As in a Kalman filter, the estimator gain can be expressed in terms of the state estimation error covariance.
Rodriguez, G.↗
BMINN: Learning chemical potentials and parameters from voltage data for multi-phase battery modeling
Free-energy landscapes and chemical potentials govern the dynamics of phase transitions, transport, and stability in functional materials, yet they remain experimentally inaccessible under realistic operating conditions. Here we introduce a Bayesian model-integrated neural network (BMINN) that embeds physics-based formulations of non-autonomous partial differential-algebraic equations into probabilistic learning. This approach reconstructs hidden thermodynamics directly from macroscopic current-voltage data, providing quantitative access to metastable states, staging transitions, and energy barriers without synchrotron probes. Demonstrated on lithium-graphite electrodes, BMINN recovers full Gibbs free-energy landscapes with fidelity validated against operando X-ray diffraction. The framework generalizes across dynamical regimes, enabling accurate voltage prediction, internal state estimation, and inference of governing parameters. Beyond batteries, BMINN exemplifies a broadly applicable strategy for learning missing physics in multiphase, non-equilibrium systems, offering a new pathway to uncover hidden thermodynamic functions across condensed matter and materials physics.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA Tech Briefs, May 2012
Topics covered include: An "Inefficient Fin" Non-Dimensional Parameter to Measure Gas Temperatures Efficiently; On-Wafer Measurement of a Multi-Stage MMIC Amplifier with 10 dB of Gain at 475 GHz; Software to Control and Monitor Gas Streams; Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (LHR) for Measurements of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmospheric Column; Anomaly Detection in Test Equipment via Sliding Mode Observers; Absolute Position of Targets Measured Through a Chamber Window Using Lidar Metrology Systems; Goldstone Solar System Radar Waveform Generator; Fast and Adaptive Lossless Onboard Hyperspectral Data Compression System; Iridium Interfacial Stack - IrIS; Downsampling Photodetector Array with Windowing; Optical Phase Recovery and Locking in a PPM Laser Communication Link; High-Speed Edge-Detecting Line Scan Smart Camera; Optical Communications Channel Combiner; Development of Thermal Infrared Sensor to Supplement Operational Land Imager; Amplitude-Stabilized Oscillator for a Capacitance-Probe Electrometer; Automated Performance Characterization of DSN System Frequency Stability Using Spacecraft Tracking Data; Histogrammatic Method for Determining Relative Abundance of Input Gas Pulse; Predictive Sea State Estimation for Automated Ride Control and Handling - PSSEARCH; LEGION: Lightweight Expandable Group of Independently Operating Nodes; Real-Time Projection to Verify Plan Success During Execution; Automated Performance Characterization of DSN System Frequency Stability Using Spacecraft Tracking Data; Web-Based Customizable Viewer for Mars Network Overflight Opportunities; Fabrication of a Cryogenic Terahertz Emitter for Bolometer Focal Plane Calibrations; Fabrication of an Absorber-Coupled MKID Detector; Graphene Transparent Conductive Electrodes for Next- Generation Microshutter Arrays; Method of Bonding Optical Elements with Near-Zero Displacement; Free-Mass and Interface Configurations of Hammering Mechanisms; Wavefront Compensation Segmented Mirror Sensing and Control; Long-Life, Lightweight, Multi-Roller Traction Drives for Planetary Vehicle Surface Exploration; Reliable Optical Pump Architecture for Highly Coherent Lasers Used in Space Metrology Applications; Electrochemical Ultracapacitors Using Graphitic Nanostacks; Improved Whole-Blood-Staining Device; Monitoring Location and Angular Orientation of a Pill; Molecular Technique to Reduce PCR Bias for Deeper Understanding of Microbial Diversity; Laser Ablation Electrodynamic Ion Funnel for In Situ Mass Spectrometry on Mars; High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer for the Global Hawk Unmanned Aerial Vehicle; PRTs and Their Bonding for Long-Duration, Extreme-Temperature Environments; Mid- and Long-IR Broadband Quantum Well Photodetector; 3D Display Using Conjugated Multiband Bandpass Filters; Real-Time, Non-Intrusive Detection of Liquid Nitrogen in Liquid Oxygen at High Pressure and High Flow; Method to Enhance the Operation of an Optical Inspection Instrument Using Spatial Light Modulators; Dual-Compartment Inflatable Suitlock; Large-Strain Transparent Magnetoactive Polymer Nanocomposites; Thermodynamic Vent System for an On-Orbit Cryogenic Reaction Control Engine; Time Distribution Using SpaceWire in the SCaN Testbed on ISS; and Techniques for Solution- Assisted Optical Contacting.
Source record↗
Ensemble Kalman filter for data assimilation coupled with low-resolution computations techniques applied in fluid dynamics
This paper presents an innovative Reduced-order model (ROM) for merging experimental and simulation data using data assimilation (DA) to estimate the "True" state of a fluid dynamics system, leading to more accurate predictions. Our methodology introduces a novel approach by implementing the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) within a reduced-dimensional framework, grounded in a robust theoretical foundation and applied to fluid dynamics. To address the substantial computational demands of DA, the proposed ROM employs low-resolution (LR) techniques to drastically reduce computational costs. This innovative approach involves downsampling datasets for DA computations, followed by an advanced reconstruction technique based on low-cost singular value decomposition (lcSVD). The lcSVD method, a key innovation in this paper, has never been applied to DA before and offers a highly efficient way to enhance resolution with minimal computational resources. Our results demonstrate significant reductions in both computation time and RAM usage through these LR techniques without compromising the accuracy of the estimations. For instance, in a turbulent test case, for a data compression rate of 15.9, the LR approach can achieve a speed-up of 13.7 and a RAM compression of 90.9% while maintaining a low relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of 2.6%, compared to 0.8% in the high-resolution (HR) reference. Furthermore, we highlight the effectiveness of the EnKF in estimating and predicting the state of fluid flow systems based on limited observations and given low-fidelity numerical data. This paper highlights the potential of the proposed DA method in fluid dynamics applications, particularly for improving computational efficiency in CFD and related fields. Its ability to balance accuracy with low computational and memory costs makes it especially suitable for large-scale and real-time applications, such as environmental monitoring or engineering design. This method will be incorporated into ModelFLOWs-app.
Data Assimilation↗