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DOE OSTI2025

Assimilating partial observation to enhance feedback control of stochastic dynamical systems

Here, in this paper, we present a novel methodology to tackle feedback optimal control problems in scenarios where the exact state of the controlled process is unknown. It integrates data assimilation techniques and optimal control solvers to manage partial observation of the state process, a common occurrence in practical scenarios. Traditional stochastic optimal control methods assume full state observation, which is often not feasible in real-world fluid dynamics control problems. Our approach underscores the significance of utilizing observational data to inform control policy design. Specifically, we introduce a kernel learning backward stochastic differential equation (SDE) filter to enhance data assimilation efficiency and propose a sample-wise stochastic optimization method within the stochastic maximum principle framework. We demonstrate the efficacy and accuracy of our method in the control of advection-diffusion-reaction flow problem and the Dubins airplane maneuvering problem with model uncertainty.

data driven↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonperturbative quantum gravity in a closed Lorentzian universe

We study how meaningful physical predictions can arise in nonperturbative quantum gravity in a closed Lorentzian universe. In such settings, recent developments suggest that the quantum gravitational Hilbert space is one-dimensional and real for each α-sector, as induced by spacetime wormholes. This appears to obstruct the conventional quantum-mechanical prescription of assigning probabilities via projection onto a basis of states. While previous approaches have introduced external observers or augmented the theory to resolve this issue, we argue that quantum gravity itself contains all the necessary ingredients to make physical predictions. We demonstrate that the emergence of classical observables and probabilistic outcomes can be understood as a consequence of partial observability: physical observers access only a subsystem of the universe. Tracing out the inaccessible degrees of freedom yields reduced density matrices that encode classical information, with uncertainties exponentially suppressed by the environment’s entropy. We develop this perspective using both the Lorentzian path integral and operator formalisms and support it with a simple microscopic model. Our results show that quantum gravity in a closed universe naturally gives rise to meaningful, robust predictions without recourse to external constructs.

AdS-CFT Correspondence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Control for Load-Following of Boiling Water Reactors Part I: Linear Systems and Fully-Observable Dynamics

Automation control is a key strategy to improve the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants. Not only does it help reduce operational costs, but it also extends the value proposition of these plants to nontraditional markets, including unattended operations in remote villages and space. However, the dynamics of the operating environments of nuclear reactors are subject to changes over time, and there are no widely adopted methods to ensure that the automation strategy will remain effective over the extended durations required for these applications. Adaptive control is a discipline that offers the possibility to accommodate such changes online. However, it relies on mathematical assumptions that must be respected to ensure robustness and reliability. In this work, we derive an adaptive control formulation for linear systems in which all states are observable and apply it to an instance of load-follow operation for Boiling Water Reactors. We assumed uncertainty in two factors: the temperature coefficient and the control rod worth, both of which are affected over time by the evolution of the nuclear reactor core environment. With an arbitrary penalty factor of 5, we found that the mean absolute and integral time absolute errors can be reduced by more than 90%, underscoring the strength of adaptive control. To extend the application to more challenges, different uncertainties and load-follow trajectories, as well as new formulations that include non-linearity and partial observability, are currently being developed.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A physics informed bayesian optimization approach for material design: application to NiTi shape memory alloys

Abstract The design of materials and identification of optimal processing parameters constitute a complex and challenging task, necessitating efficient utilization of available data. Bayesian Optimization (BO) has gained popularity in materials design due to its ability to work with minimal data. However, many BO-based frameworks predominantly rely on statistical information, in the form of input-output data, and assume black-box objective functions. In practice, designers often possess knowledge of the underlying physical laws governing a material system, rendering the objective function not entirely black-box, as some information is partially observable. In this study, we propose a physics-informed BO approach that integrates physics-infused kernels to effectively leverage both statistical and physical information in the decision-making process. We demonstrate that this method significantly improves decision-making efficiency and enables more data-efficient BO. The applicability of this approach is showcased through the design of NiTi shape memory alloys, where the optimal processing parameters are identified to maximize the transformation temperature.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Framework of Multisource Data Fusion for Outage Location in Looped Distribution Systems

Accurate outage location is essential for expediting post-outage power restoration, minimizing outage duration, and enhancing the resilience of distribution networks. With the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, data-driven outage location methods have significantly advanced beyond traditional approaches that rely on manual inspections. However, existing methods still face critical challenges, like reliance on single-source data, limited ability to handle partially observable systems or difficulties with loop networks. To the best of our knowledge, no single approach has comprehensively addressed all of these challenges at once. To this end, this paper proposes a comprehensive multisource data fusion framework for outage locations via probabilistic graph networks. The framework consists of three key phases. First, a novel method for reconstituting distribution networks with loops is developed, transforming looped networks into multiple radial subnetworks that retain all outage causalities of the original network. Second, Bayesian network (BN) models are established for each subnetwork, integrating multiple data sources and network structures. Finally, a joint Gibbs sampling mechanism, featuring forward and backward information flow, is designed to merge data from separate BN models and maximize the utilization of limited evidence, ensuring accurate outage location identification. In conclusion, the framework was validated on two modified public test systems, and comparative studies confirmed its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-trait multi-environment genomic prediction strategies for Miscanthus sacchariflorus

Genomic selection holds the potential to serve as a strategic tool to enhance the genetic gain of complex traits in Miscanthus breeding programs. The development of improved cultivars requires their assessment for various traits across diverse environments to ensure suitable overall performance. Hence, the multi-trait multi-environment (MTME) genomic prediction (GP) models offer an opportunity to improve selection accuracy. This study aims to evaluate the potential of five GP models: (1) three MTME models including genotype-by-trait-by-environment interaction (G×E×T) and (2) two single-trait multi-environment (STME) models (with and without G×E interaction). A Miscanthus sacchariflorus population comprising 336 genotypes evaluated in three environments and scored for four traits (biomass yield YDY, total culm number TCM, average internode length AIL, and culm node number CNN) was analyzed. The predictive ability of the models was evaluated considering three cross-validation schemes resembling realistic scenarios (CV1: predicting new genotypes, CVP: predicting missing traits in a given environment, and CV2: predicting partially observed genotypes). On average, in all cross-validation schemes compared to the STME the predictive ability of the MTME models was 10% to 70% higher for TCM and AIL. On the other hand, for YDY and CNN, both STME models performed similarly or slightly better (between 5 to 64%) than the MTME models in most environments. While the MTME models were not successful for all traits when compared to their STME counterparts, MTME models improved the prediction of the performance of genotypes that were untested across environments or lacked trait information in a specific environment. Overall, our study suggests that MTME GP models can be implemented in Miscanthus breeding programs to improve the predictive ability of the complex traits, shorten breeding cycles, and accelerate selection decisions.

genomic prediction (GP)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Modeling, Trajectory Optimization, and Linear Control of Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

The construction industry faces a growing need for automation to reduce costs, improve accuracy and productivity, and address labor shortages. One area that stands to benefit significantly from automation is panelized prefabricated building envelope retrofits, which can improve a building’s energy efficiency in heating and cooling interior spaces. In this paper, we propose using cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs), which can effectively lift and handle large objects, to install these panels. However, implementing CDPRs presents significant challenges because of their nonlinear dynamics, complex trajectory planning, and precise control requirements. To tackle these challenges, this work focuses on a new application of established control and trajectory optimization theories in a CDPR simulation of a building envelope retrofit under real-world conditions. We first model the dynamics of CDPRs, highlighting the critical role of damping in system behavior. Building on this dynamic model, we formulate a trajectory optimization problem to generate feasible and efficient motion plans for the robot under operational and environmental constraints. Given the high precision required in the construction industry, accurately tracking the optimized trajectory is essential. However, challenges such as partial observability and external vibrations complicate this task. To address these issues, a Linear Quadratic Gaussian control framework is applied, enabling the robot to track the optimized trajectories with precision. Simulation results show that the proposed controller enables precise end effector positioning with errors under 4 mm, even in the presence of external wind disturbances. Through comprehensive simulations, our approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the system’s nonlinear dynamics, trajectory optimization, and control strategies under controlled yet highly realistic conditions. The results demonstrate the feasibility of CDPRs for automating panel installation and provide insights into their practical deployment.

CDPR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Finite ion temperature effects on electrostatic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas

In this paper, the effects of warm ions on electrostatic, kinetic instabilities observed in partially magnetized plasmas, such as the electron cyclotron drift instability (ECDI) and modified two-stream instability (MTSI), are investigated. The kinetic dispersion relation that accounts for warm, non-magnetized ions and warm, magnetized electrons is solved using a complex root-finding technique [A. C. Denig and K. Hara, Phys. Plasmas 30, 032108 (2023)]. It is observed that finite ion temperature introduces ion Landau damping effects, decreasing the growth rate of most unstable modes. The high-frequency, short-wavelength ECDI modes are more strongly affected by ion Landau damping than the low-frequency, long-wavelength MTSI modes. The solutions of the kinetic dispersion relation for MTSI are compared with the fluid dispersion relation of MTSI, which was originally proposed by McBride et al. [Phys. Fluids 15 2367–2383 (1972)]. The differences in the dispersion characteristics between the kinetic and fluid MTSI limits are assessed, illustrating the effects of electron and ion Landau damping on kinetic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas.

Denig, A. C. (ORCID:0000000253339572)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Mixed Nd 4+/3+ and Cluster Magnetism in Hexagonal Perovskite 12R-Ba 4 NdMn 3 O 12−γ

Hexagonal perovskite oxides with 12R stacking host well-separated face-sharing octahedral metal trimers with short metal–metal distances, leading in some cases to large degrees of magnetic frustration and cluster magnetism. Introducing magnetic ions in proximity to these trimers can influence the degree of frustration and cluster magnetism, but the extent to which the magnetism can be tuned by varying neighboring metal cations remains an open question. In this work, we test the impacts of using Nd in proximity to Mn trimers in the hexagonal perovskite 12R-Ba 4 NdMn 3 O 12−γ . Given this stoichiometry, Nd should assume the 4+ oxidation state with a spin state of S = 1, which would be the first realization of Nd 4+ in an oxide environment. Through detailed bulk magnetic, X-ray absorption spectroscopic, and powder neutron diffraction (PND) measurements, we find that Nd 4+ is realized in this material, but there is also partial reduction to Nd 3+ , which is charge-balanced by O vacancies. Magnetometry measurements indicate an antiferromagnetic ordering temperature T N ≈ 16 K, and PND measurements reveal a surprising collinear antiferromagnetic structure with magnetic space group Pc2/m (no. 10.49 in BNS notation), which has not previously been seen in this class of materials. Our results represent a comprehensive analysis of the structural, electronic, and magnetic properties of 12R-Ba 4 NdMn 3 O 12−γ , showing the first observation of partial Nd 4+ in an oxide, and demonstrating that this structural class can host a broad range of magnetic structures which are not easily predicted based on compositional trends.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Entanglement engineering of optomechanical systems by reinforcement learning

Entanglement is fundamental to quantum information science and technology, yet controlling and manipulating entanglement—so-called entanglement engineering—for arbitrary quantum systems remains a formidable challenge. There are two difficulties: the fragility of quantum entanglement and its experimental characterization. We develop a model-free deep reinforcement-learning (RL) approach to entanglement engineering, in which feedback control together with weak continuous measurement and partial state observation is exploited to generate and maintain desired entanglement. We employ quantum optomechanical systems with linear or nonlinear photon–phonon interactions to demonstrate the workings of our machine-learning-based entanglement engineering protocol. In particular, the RL agent sequentially interacts with one or multiple parallel quantum optomechanical environments, collects trajectories, and updates the policy to maximize the accumulated reward to create and stabilize quantum entanglement over an arbitrary amount of time. The machine-learning-based model-free control principle is applicable to the entanglement engineering of experimental quantum systems in general.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transmission Data-Driven User-Defined Model for Inverter-based and Conventional Power Plants

Recent events in Odessa [1], [2] have shed light on the complexities of integrating large Inverter-Based Resource (IBR) plants with the transmission system, prompting NERC to stress continuous performance monitoring by transmission operators. Challenges such as plant control updates, IBR model revisions, Phase-locked loop loss of synchronism, and protection events have been identified, underscoring the need for enhanced monitoring protocols by regulatory bodies. The recent FERC 901 order underscores the importance of accurate data exchange regarding IBRs for reliability studies. However, limited access to IBR plant-related data hampers effective decision-making for transmission operators (TOP). This paper proposes a method for constructing data-driven User-Defined dynamic Models (UDM) for power plants for validating multiple-event data using field measurements from interconnection bus locations. The problem is formulated as a power plant model identification problem and a multi-task learning approach under partial input observability assumptions is proposed in this work. This approach aims to predict aggregated responses of conventional and IBR power plants during various dynamic physical events which is useful for planning studies under diverse disturbance conditions. Ultimately, this methodology emphasizes the importance of plant visibility to operators in addressing power system challenges, facilitating improved planning and operational studies.

Mahapatra, Kaveri [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of amorphous pockets on displacement damage evolution in silicon

Silicon has long been known to exhibit amorphization in response to heavy particle bombardment. For doses below the total amorphization threshold, partial amorphization is observed in the form of scattered amorphous pockets. While extensive research has gone into modeling the formation and evolution of amorphous pockets in response to irradiation, no studies yet investigate their impact on the evolution of other damage such as interstitial supersaturation and clustering. In this study, we survey the impact of amorphous pockets on defect evolution in silicon when treated as static sinks. MD is first used to show that amorphous pockets provide energetically favorable sites for point defects relative to the crystalline bulk, supporting the hypothesis that they act as sinks. A 0-D cluster dynamics model is then constructed, taking an interstitial clustering model from the literature and including amorphous pockets as a sink species. We conduct our survey for temperatures between 30 and 400 °C and sink strengths between 1 to 6 x 10 10 cm −2 . Both implantation- and radiation-induced damage states are investigated using interstitial and vacancy concentrations as initial condition variables. We find that, due to the differing migration rates of the interstitial and the vacancy, amorphous pockets have a non-monotonic impact on the final damage state depending on the effective sink strength of the amorphous pockets, resulting in increased damage formation in regimes of intermediate amorphization. In conclusion, this result emphasizes the important role of amorphous pockets in governing the evolution of damage in partially amorphized crystalline materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sputtered ferroelectric aluminum scandium boron nitride (Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N)/ n -GaN heterostructures

This work demonstrates ferroelectric switching in magnetron sputtered Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N/ n -GaN heterostructures. Using high power impulse magnetron sputtering, a silicon doped n -GaN bottom electrode with an electron concentration of 6.0 × 10 19 cm −3 is grown on c-plane sapphire. Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N films are prepared on the GaN surface with Al:B:Sc ratios that produce tensile, lattice matched, or compressive epitaxial strains. X-ray diffraction shows that lattice matched and compressively strained Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N compositions are pseudomorphic, while partial relaxation is observed for tensilely strained Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N/ n -GaN heterostructures. Electrically, the Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N/ n -GaN stacks show robust hysteresis; the P–E loops are fully saturated with both lattice matched and compressively strained Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N compositions exhibiting remanent polarization values of 135 μC/cm 2 . For comparison, Al 1−x−y B x Sc y N films are also prepared on metal organic chemical vapor deposition and single crystal GaN substrates to extend strain and morphology trends to more common substrate types. This report validates that sputter deposition is a feasible technique for fabricating strain-tunable ferroelectric III–N heterostructures with high crystalline fidelity and smooth surface morphologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observable-projected ensembles

Measurements in many-body quantum systems can generate non-trivial phenomena, such as preparation of long-range entangled states, dynamical phase transitions, or measurement-altered criticality. Here, we introduce a new measurement scheme that produces an ensemble of mixed states in a subsystem, obtained by measuring a local Hermitian observable on part of its complement. We refer to this as the observable-projected ensemble . Unlike standard projected ensembles-where pure states are generated by projective measurements on the complement-our approach involves projective partial measurements of specific observables. This setup has two main advantages: theoretically, it is amenable to analytical computations, especially within conformal field theories. Experimentally, it requires only a linear number of measurements, rather than an exponential one, to probe the properties of the ensemble. As a first step in exploring the observable-projected ensemble, we investigate its entanglement properties in conformal field theory and perform a detailed analysis of the free compact boson.

Milekhin, Alexey [California Institute of Technolo↗