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New Horizons for High-Performance Computing

Here we provide an overview of the past, present, and a diverse collection of future computer architecture alternatives for HPC. The end of Moore’s Law influenced the current HPC architecture focus on accelerated compute nodes composed of CPU and GPU computing components integrated into massively parallel processor architecture systems. There are many alternatives for future HPC directions, with different technologies, computing ecosystems, opportunities for lead user application-driven customization, and the role of open innovation business models. This paper provides an overview of these different new horizons for HPC, an organizing principle to focus future computing research, different public-private partnership models, and the critical role of workforce development.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Success Path Method: Conformance with Safety Management Systems

All industrial facilities deal with safety hazards such as equipment failures, chemical and toxic releases, and fires and explosions just to name a few. A disciplined framework for managing the integrity of operating systems and processes that handle hazardous substances by applying good design principles, engineering, and operating practices is called process safety. The goal of such framewoks is to prevent the release of energy or material that could cause harm to people or damage to equipment and/or environment. Process safety covers all aspects of facility operation also including design, maintenance, and human and organizational factors that could possibly have effect on process safety. As it will be seen from the discussion below, process safety is just one of the pieces of the much bigger matter, a safety culture. Many industries have long recognized the importance of safety culture in their day-to-day operation. Although the definition of safety culture can slightly differ from organization to organization, in general, a safety culture is how things are done to demonstrate a commitment to safety by everyone involved. An organization acquires safety culture over time as the product of individual and group values, actions, and behaviors toward overall safety. It is important to note that safety culture should not be viewed as some static state that an organization wants to reach. It is more like a constantly evolving level of “how things are done when nobody is watching.” Safety culture is an inherent characteristic of an organization, it is always present, but the level can range on a continuum from undesirable to desirable or more commonly used, from negative to positive. An example for an undesirable, negative safety culture would be a company in which accidents resulting in harm (physical and/or emotional) of its employees, equipment or surrounding environment and community occur frequently. At the other end of the spectrum would be a company in which such accidents are rare or do not occur at all (desired or positive safety culture). Every company/industry exists somewhere within this spectrum.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Energy Efficiency Scaling for 2 Decades (EES2) Roadmap for Computing

In response to the looming crisis in global energy consumption required for advanced computing applications, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technology Office (AMMTO) is leading a multi-organizational effort to define a roadmap for energy efficiency scaling for two decades (EES2) with the aim to reduce energy use in all aspects of computation by more than a factor of 1000 in two decades. By July of 2024, over 60 organizations representing industry, academia, and the national laboratories have pledged to work in various aspects of research and development to enable energy efficiency in computing including in the development of the EES2 roadmap, with an initial public release in 2024 as the first phase of an ongoing commitment to energy-efficient and sustainable computation.

Kaarsberg, Tina [U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)]↗

Workshop on Establishing and Operating a National Nuclear Security Support Centre Hypothetical Scenario: “Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre Strategy Implementation Plan”

[This is part of a hypothetical scenario-based exercise for workshop participants, based on the fictitious country "Centralia."] In prior years, as a part of efforts to strengthen and better sustain nuclear security within the State, Centralia requested through the Integrated Nuclear Security Support Plan (INSSP) framework that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conduct an expert mission on establishing and operating a national nuclear security support centre (NSSC). After the IAEA conducted the NSSC expert mission, members of the Centralia Committee on Nuclear Security (CNS) agreed to initiate the feasibility determination phase of establishing an NSSC, in line with the systematic process recommended by the IAEA. Centralia Nuclear Regulatory Authority (CNRA), as the designated lead organization for coordinating the feasibility determination process, prepared a Feasibility Report in collaboration with members of the CNS and based on input gathered among relevant national stakeholders. The report was presented to the National Security Advisor (NSA), who reviewed and approved the proposal for Centralia to proceed with establishing an NSSC. After Centralia moved into the planning phase for the Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre (CNSSC), per REF, the primary stakeholders of the centre jointly developed this strategy implementation plan, which provides an outline of the organizational structure, needs analysis, programme objectives, financial and project management, risk management, and other key aspects of the centre. This document will be reviewed and updated as necessary on a semi-annual basis during the project implementation period of establishing CNSSC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Distribution Capacity Expansion Planning: Current Practice, Opportunities, and Decision Support

The distribution utility industry and its engineers are experiencing monumental shifts in consumer needs and expectations. Characterizing future native loads as compared to net load demand for long-term capacity planning is especially difficult, as consumers are increasingly adopting prosumer technologies. This paper is the culmination of 5 months of utility interviews coordinated by the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) and Kevala, Inc. (Kevala) to better understand distribution capacity planning challenges. The interviews covered all aspects of capacity planning including load and DER forecasting, criteria for assessing system constraints, solution types, and organizational and decision-making structures. Our intent is to provide insight into distribution capacity planning decision support needs for utilities and the increasing number of stakeholders involved, from state and regulatory agencies to community and solution providers with interest in increasing their understanding in the distribution capacity planning process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Expert and operator perspectives on barriers to energy efficiency in data centers

Abstract It was last estimated in 2016 that data centers (DCs) comprise approximately 2% of total US electricity consumption. However, this estimate is currently being updated to account for the massive increase in computing needs due to streaming, cryptocurrency, and artificial intelligence (AI). To prevent energy consumption that tracks with increasing computing needs, it is imperative we identify energy efficiency strategies and investments beyond the low-hanging fruit solutions. In a two-phased research approach, we ask: What non-technical barriers still impede energy efficiency (EE) practices and investments in the data center sector, and what can be done to overcome these barriers? In particular, we are focused on social and organizational barriers to EE. In Phase I, we performed a literature review and found that technical solutions are abundant in the literature, but fail to address the top-down cultural shifts that need to take place in order to adapt new energy efficiency strategies. In Phase II, reported here, we interviewed 16 data center operators/experts to ground-truth our literature findings. Our interview protocols focus on three aspects of DC decision-making: procurement practices, metrics and monitoring, and perceived barriers to energy efficiency. We find that vendors are the key drivers of procurement decisions, advanced efficiency metrics are facility-specific, and there is convergence in the design of advanced facilities due to the heat density of parallelized infrastructure. Our ultimate goals for our research are to design DC decarbonization policies that target organizational structure, empower individual staff, and foster a supportive external market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County (Project OASIS) - Deliverable Task 7: Risk Assessment

The “Optimizing Alabama’s CO 2 Storage in Shelby County: Project OASIS” CarbonSAFE Phase II Project seeks to build on regional data sets that demonstrate that the subsurface within Shelby County, Alabama has the potential to store commercial volumes of CO 2 safely, permanently, and economically. The primary target CO 2 Storage Complex is the deep Ketona Dolomite located within a 140 square mile area of the Valley and Ridge Region of Alabama. This deep saline reservoir is beneath a confining system encompassing at least 6,500 ft of shales and other low permeability sediments. Project OASIS drilled a deep stratigraphic test well to confirm the geological properties of the confining system and storage reservoir(s) within the Storage Complex. The geological data was incorporated into numerical models to establish the areal extent of the CO 2 plume and help design the storage site and its monitoring system. The project is managed by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB), an interstate compact organization consisting of governors and state legislative leaders from sixteen southern states, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as an appointee by the President of the United States. The organizational compact provides it with access to state government organizations and legislatures. The Board also maintains an Associate Members program comprised of energy resource companies, utilities, trade groups, academic R&D science and technology experts and energy consultants. Further, the SSEB staff is experienced in managing and coordinating complex energy and environmental programs, from research programs to full-scale design and demonstrations of new and innovative technologies. Project OASIS is a public-private partnership of six entities with multiple principal investigators (PIs). SSEB’s Lead PI and Co-PI are responsible for all aspects of project performance in accordance with the DOE-NETL Cooperative Agreement. SSEB has issued subgrants to Advanced Resources International, Inc., Alabama A&M University, Auburn University, Crescent Resource Innovation, and Oklahoma State University. Advanced Resources International, Inc., issued subgrants to Baker Hughes and Loudon Technical Services for field services

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Case Study - Intentional Inclusion: How embedding inclusion into the fabric of Idaho National Laboratory positioned the organization for a sustainable future

Idaho National Laboratory, a Department of Energy national laboratory headquartered in Idaho Falls, Idaho, set out to embed inclusion into every aspect of its organization. The goal was to ensure the laboratory is a place where everyone feels they are valued, belong and can bring their best selves to work each day. The laboratory viewed inclusion as a journey in which a consistent, collective commitment to intentional decision-making and incremental progress ultimately achieves amazing results. INL’s intentional inclusion strategy has allowed the organization to: • Retain and build a next-generation workforce to transform the world’s energy future and secure the nation’s most critical infrastructure. • Lead inclusively through individual, team-based, and labwide actions that elevate organizational effectiveness. • Grow laboratory cultural acumen by establishing a clear connection between inclusion and mission success. This case study shares how INL brought employees along on the inclusion journey and inspired everyone to keep moving forward together.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Using Systems Theoretic Process Analysis and Causal Analysis to Map and Manage Organizational Information to Enable Digitalization and Information Automation

The overarching goal of this Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program–supported research and development project is to provide planning tools and comprehensive guidance to utilities considering or undertaking full nuclear plant modernization. The results of this research will provide the nuclear industry with a comprehensive and usable solution, including guidance, lessons learned, methods, and planning tools. This research is currently working to provide guidance on digitalization and information automation to enable the evolution of data to information, insight, and action—thereby allowing utilities to operate safely and cost-competitively with all other electrical generation sources. Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program researchers have also recently started investigating how human and technology integration principles, information automation, and digitalization enable data evolution. These researchers are currently in the process of validating the use of System-Theoretic Process Analysis to define high-level safety constraints in the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s problem identification and resolution process (i.e., a plant compliance information gathering activity). The next step in this research, which is described in the following sections of this report, is to map out data evolution in a use case to identify inefficiencies in another aspect of plant compliance information gathering and communication activities—event investigations and root cause analyses.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

ISO 50001-Based Energy Management Systems as a Practical Path for Decarbonization: Initial Findings from a Survey of Technical Assistance Cohort Participants

Organizations face rising pressure to take action to reduce their climate-affecting emissions (i.e., decarbonize). While many responses are possible, an essential approach—strategically managing their energy consumption as an essential business practice via an ISO 50001-based energy management system—is not yet widely recognized as a framework for decarbonization. This study analyzes interim survey results from 24 organizations (a 48% response rate) implementing a rigorous energy management system, one deployed by the U.S. Department of Energy as “50001 Ready”, to test whether participating organizations perceive the energy management system under development as an essential aspect of their decarbonization efforts. The results are preliminary in nature, given the ongoing nature of the program and associated data collection; however, they are sufficient to refute our hypothesis that energy management systems are perceived by organizations participating in 50001 Ready cohorts to primarily affect energy performance with little-to-no connection regarding decarbonization efforts. Major findings include that participants’ decarbonization targets and commitments are driven by market imperatives (highlighting the importance of ISO 50001 as a management system tool) and that they see energy efficiency as vital to decarbonizing. We conclude by suggesting future research directions to further establish the premise that energy management systems are an effective, efficient, and long-lasting decarbonization strategy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗