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Orbital Lifetime Program (OL) analyzes long-term motion of Earthorbiting spacecraft at altitudes of up to 2,500 km. Models perturbations to orbit caused by solar-radiation pressure, atmospheric drag, and gravitational effects of Sun, Moon, and oblate Earth. Used to predict orbital lifetime and decay rate of satellites. OL written in FORTRAN 77.
The volume of space between Earth’s geosynchronous orbit out to the Moon’s sphere of influence, including the lunar Lagrange points, is crucial for the successful planning and execution of space missions, but not fully understood dynamically. This region is a part of cislunar space. Trajectories through cislunar space are influenced by the gravitational forces of the Sun, Earth, Moon, and other Solar System planets leading to typically unpredictable and chaotic trajectory behavior. It is therefore difficult to predict the stability of an trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial conditions or orbital elements. We simulate one million cislunar orbits to train a self-organizing map (SOM) to cluster the trajectories and orbits into families based on how long they remain stable within the cislunar space. Using the trained SOM, we are able to predict the stable lifetime of a trajectory through cislunar space from a set of initial orbital elements to within an accuracy of 10% for 8% of simulated trajectories and within 50% for 43% of the simulated trajectories. Clustering in the SOM suggests that a variety of trajectory morphologies have similar lifetimes. Once trained, the SOM can predict the stable lifetime of a given cislunar trajectory within milliseconds. The methods developed in this work enable the rapid identification of stable cislunar orbits and trajectories that could be used for future space exploration. Moreover, the developed SOM method can generate orbital and trajectory lifetime estimates from minimal observational data, such as a single two line element, making it useful for early warning systems and large-scale sensor network operations.
We present trends in predicted orbital lifetimes of CubeSats based not only on orbital parameters, but also launch year and the Area-to-Mass (AtM) ratio of the CubeSat. Determining the orbital lifetime variation of CubeSats in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is an important aspect of mission planning because of two competing factors: (1) the maximum orbital lifetime for orbital debris mitigation requirements, and (2) the minimum orbit duration necessary to accomplish the spacecraft mission requirements. The orbital lifetime is a function of orbital parameters, the AtM ratio of the CubeSat, and date of orbit insertion. Solar flux varies with time, peaking and declining across the 11-year solar cycle and affecting the amount of atmospheric drag on the CubeSat. This results in large variations in orbital lifetime dependent on the mission's launch date. We calculated the variation of orbital lifetime for multiple commonly used 1U to 6U CubeSat mission types across the two upcoming solar cycles. For any given AtM ratio and altitude combination in this analysis, the predicted orbital lifetime varies up to a factor of five due to orbit insertion occurring in a different year. Some examples of orbital lifetime spreads are 5 months to 2 years, and 1.5 to 7.5 years. While orbital lifetimes correlate to the solar cycle, the phasing of the maximum values varies based on a given AtM ratio and altitude combination. Different combinations of these two factors will result in the maximum predicted orbital lifetime occurring at different launch years throughout the solar cycle. Therefore, there is not a specific year within a solar cycle which can be used to calculate the maximum predicted orbital lifetime for all CubeSats. Since CubeSats are typically flown as a rideshare payload on a launch vehicle, mission planners must account for launch date variation in their orbital lifetime predictions. We recommend calculating orbital lifetime for a range of dates to allow for risk planning due to launch date slips, and other mission planning best practices.
Orbital lifetime calculations for Venus and Mars Orbiter mission plannings
Lunar solar perturbation effect on orbital lifetimes of artificial satellites with highly eccentric orbits
Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.
A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.
The factors that influence the orbital lifetime characteristics of the NASA Space Station are discussed. These include altitude, attitude, launch date, ballistic coefficient, and the presence of large articulating solar arrays. Examples from previous program systems studies are presented that illustrate how each factor affects Station orbit lifetime. The effect of atmospheric density models on orbit lifetime predictions is addressed along with the uncertainty of these predictions using current trajectory analysis of the Long Duration Exposure Facility spacecraft. Finally, nominal reboost altitude profiles and fuel requirement considerations are presented for implementing a reboost strategy based on planned Shuttle Orbiter rendezvous strategy and contingency considerations.
The orbital lifetime study capabilities of the Reference Mission Design and Analysis Program (RMDAP) and the Apollo Mission Planning and Real-Time Rendezvous Support Program (ARRS or Monster) were studied. Output and program versatility, that is, the methods with which each program permits user definition of the major factors affecting orbital lifetimes, are discussed. In addition, orbit maintenance is examined and sample runs are compared. Since each program has special capabilities in different areas, it is left to the investigator's discretion as to the preferable program to employ for his lifetime study purposes.
Lunar-solar perturbation effect on satellites with eccentric orbits, noting lifetimes on perigee heights
Orbital lifetime prediction model for earth satellites - lifetime-payload mass optimization
Model definitions and Fortran language to predict earth satellite orbital lifetime
A record (from preflight planning to earth impact) of skylab's orbital lifetime predictions, its actual decay and analysis are presented. Skylab provided a unique opportunity to develop, confirm and check out procedures and computer programs used for predicting lifetime and reentry. It provided verification of aerodynamic environment which was predicted for several aerodynamic configurations. It also provided data on the density model's reaction to rapidly changing solar flux over relatively short time periods. The effects of solar flux (and the uncertainty in the solar flux predictions) on orbital lifetime are discussed.
The Flight Dynamics Analysis Branch (FDAB) of NASNGSFC is tasked with determining the orbital lifetime of several developmental and operational satellites, which include the Hubble Space Telescope. A DOS based program developed by the FDAB many years ago, called PC Lifetime, is used to determine a satellite s lifetime and could soon be in need of a replacement. STK s Lifetime Object Tool is a possible candidate. Due to the reduced support of the PC Lifetime program, and the growing incompatibility of older programs with new operating systems, a comparative analysis was done to determine if STWLifetime could meet the stringent requirements that were laid before it. The use of highly accurate numerical propagators such as STK s High Precision Orbit Propagator ( OP) and the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS) provided a basis on which to compare STWLifetime s results. Several test cases were run, but the main four test cases would determine whether or not STWLifetime could be PC- Lifetime s replacement. These four cases include a geotransfer orbit, two circular LEOS, and a Poiar LEO. Following rigorous testmg procedures, a conclusion will be determined. STK has proved to be a versatile program on many satellite missions and the FDAB has high hopes that it can pass FDAB s requirements for orbital lifetime prediction.
This Technical Memorandum documents a simplified, parametric method for evaluating spacecraft orbital lifetime, disposal compliance, and disposal-related cost impacts during early mission formulation and preliminary design. The method captures the dominant drivers of orbital decay—effective ballistic coefficient, operating altitude, and solar-cycle variability—using conservative bounding assumptions. Solar maximum conditions are used to bound achievable mission lifetime, while solar minimum conditions are used to bound disposal timelines and compliance with orbital debris requirements. A single tabulated dataset provides orbital lifetime under both solar-cycle extremes together with representative disposal ΔV required to ensure compliant disposal, enabling rapid assessment of disposal feasibility, cost sensitivity, and system-level impacts prior to committing to higher-fidelity analyses.
A FORTRAN program used by Langley Research Center for analyzing orbital lifetimes of spacecraft is described. Calculations can, at the user's option, take into account perturbations in the orbit due to atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and gravitation effects of the Sun, the Moon, and Earth oblateness. Instructions are provided for access and use of the program, and several sample cases are included with detailed descriptions of their associated input and output.
Orbital behavior of large irregular shaped spacecraft with life and delay prediction from laboratory tests and experiments
This paper documents a series of estimates of the orbital lifetime of the SEDS-2 flight configuration made prior to the mission. These estimates were made with program LTIME, which has been in use at MSFC for a number of years. Because of the unusual configuration of upper-stage/tether/endmass flown on this mission, and the type of assumptions and inputs used in LTIME, the effective area used in the drag calculation had to be estimated in an unusual way. The final pre-flight predicted lifetime was 28.35 days. In the actual flight, the tether was cut approximately 5 days into the mission. The instrumented endmass plus about 12 km of tether rapidly reentered the atmosphere, and the Delta II Second Stage plus the remaining 8 km of tether reentered on mission day 60. Tracking data was used to reconstruct reentry sequences for the two parts of the configuration after the cut. The predicted lifetimes for the endmass plus tether-fragment were in the range of 0.2 to 2.8 days, depending on the perigee altitudes assumed. The predicted lifetime of the upper-stage plus tether was 56.4 days, which corresponds to reentry on mission day 61, in good agreement with the actual reentry on day 60.