Long-term orbital lifetime predictions

Abstract

Long-term orbital lifetime predictions are analyzed. Predictions were made for three satellites: the Solar Max Mission (SMM), the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF), and the Pegasus Boiler Plate (BP). A technique is discussed for determining an appropriate ballistic coefficient to use in the lifetime prediction. The orbital decay rate should be monitored regularly. Ballistic coefficient updates should be done whenever there is a significant change in the actual decay rate or in the solar activity prediction.