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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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18 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1980

Air cargo market outlook and impact via the NASA CLASS project

An overview is given of the Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project which was a 10 man-year effort carried out by two contractor teams, aimed at defining factors impacting future system growth and obtaining market requirements and design guidelines for future air freighters. Growth projection was estimated by two approaches: one, an optimal systems approach with a more efficient and cost effective system considered as being available in 1990; and the other, an evolutionary approach with an econometric behavior model used to predict long term evolution from the present system. Both approaches predict significant growth in demand for international air freighter services and less growth for U.S. domestic services. Economic analysis of air freighter fleet options indicate very strong market appeal of derivative widebody transports in 1990 with little incentive to develop all new dedicated air freighters utilizing the 1990's technology until sometime beyond the year 2000. Advanced air freighters would be economically attractive for a wide range of payload sizes (to 500 metric tons), however, if a government would share in the RD and T costs by virtue of its needs for a slightly modified version of a civil air freighter design (a.g. military airlifter).

Winston, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook study for 1980 to 88: January 1983 update

Photovoltaic solar cell arrays which convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective, alternative energy source provided that an adequate supply of low priced materials and automated fabrication techniques are available. Presently, silicon is the most promising cell material for achieving the near term cost goals of the Photovoltaics Program. Electronic grade silicon is produced primarily for the semiconductor industry with the photovoltaic industry using, in most cases, the production rejects of slightly lower grade material. Therefore, the future availability of adequate supplies of low cost silicon is one of the major concerns of the Photovoltaic Program. The supply outlook for silicon with emphasis on pricing is updated and is based primarily on an industry survey conducted by a JPL consultant. This survey included interviews with polycrystalline silicon manufacturers, a large cross section of silicon users and silicon solar cell manufacturers.

Costogue, E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Polycrystalline silicon material availability and market pricing outlook for 1980 through 1988

The results of the second JPL update to an original report to assess the availability and prices of polycrystalline Si for solar cells in the 1983-88 interval are reported. It is noted that the demand for poly-Si for solar cells competes with the demand for the same material for semiconductors, although the solar cell industry can use material rejected from the semiconductor industry. A sufficient supply is projected for the 6 yr period, rising from 3224 metric tons to 10,220 metric tons in 1988, with prices dropping from the 1980 level of $140/kg to $25/kg. The price reduction and improved production are noted to be due in large part to DOE efforts at defining lower-cost production processes.

Costogue, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗
NASA NTRS2023

Automated Fiber Placement Through Thickness Defect Stacking Optimization

In its 2022 commercial market outlook, Boeing forecasted an 80% increase in the global fleet through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. This sharp rise in demand will drive pressure onto airframe manufacturers to ramp up production and find more efficient ways to design and manufacture airplanes. Complicating this challenge is the industry’s recent transformation from traditional metal-based airframes towards hybrid composite-metal aircraft. While composites have been used in aviation for decades, aircraft manufacturers are still struggling to design and manufacture quality parts at a high rate. Automated Fiber Placement (AFP) is one of the main manufacturing techniques used to produce large-scale composite parts. After a design has been created, a manufacturing strategy has to be developed based on the working material, part geometry, and machine capabilities. This process planning stage is essential to the AFP workflow and currently requires a high level of manual input from an experienced process planner. In an effort to automate and optimize this stage, the Computer Aided Process Planning (CAPP) module was developed. CAPP assists process planners in identifying optimal starting point location and layup strategy for each ply of a laminate. This Ply-Level Optimization (PLO) phase operates on the quantification of ply quality through predictable geometry-based defects such as gaps, overlaps, angle deviation, and steering. As you move from PLO to Laminate-Level Optimization (LLO) the design space grows exponentially, emphasizing the need for automated optimization. The work presented in this thesis expands CAPP’s functionality by comparing the planned fiber paths through the thickness of the laminate to mitigate stacked area defects and achieve an optimal laminate-level manufacturing strategy. Within CAPP, predicted gap and overlap defects are imported from Vericut Composites Programming (VCP) and then discretized to streamline the through-thickness comparison. Two objective functions are used to score different combinations of ply layup strategies based on defect stacking both globally and locally. Four combinatorial optimization algorithms were coupled with these objective functions to investigate the laminate-level manufacturing strategy design space and converge on the optimal plan. These algorithms were evaluated based on accuracy and efficiency through virtual testing on a complex tool surface. A separate LLO approach was developed to achieve near-optimal laminates in significantly less time. The end result is a software package which greatly reduces the required input from process planners, shortening the design-build cycle time and improving part quality.

AFP↗
NASA NTRS1979

Silicon materials outlook study for 1980-1985 calendar years

The polycrystalline silicon industry was studied in relation to future market needs. Analysis of the data obtained indicates that there is a high probability of polycrystalline silicon shortage by the end of 1982 and a strong seller's market after 1981 which will foster price competition for available silicon.

Costogue, E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Precipitation and Soil Moisture Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

A primary goal of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is to expand markets for U.S. agricultural products and support global economic development. The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) supports this goal by coordinating monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) for the U.S. and major foreign producing countries. Because weather has a significant impact on crop progress, conditions, and production, WAOB prepares frequent agricultural weather assessments, in a GIS-based, Global Agricultural Decision Support Environment (GLADSE). The main goal of this project, thus, is to improve WAOB's estimates by integrating NASA remote sensing soil moisture observations and research results into GLADSE (See diagram below). Soil moisture is currently a primary data gap at WAOB.

Teng, William↗
NASA NTRS1989

The design of a commercial space infrastructure

Space Services and Logistics, Inc. represents the complete engineering design of a technically and financially viable commercial space company. The final proposal offers an economically sound program of space vehicles and systems designed to substantially affect a variety of space markets and produce a vertically integrated structure within the next 20 years. Throughout this design process, particular stress has been placed on attaining the highest possible levels of safety and reliability. The final program financial design requires a considerable initial outlay, but promises a relatively quick return on invested capital, culminating in large annual profits by the end of the 20-year scope of the cost outlook. The overall design has been extensively researched and was primarily driven by the present and near-term projected market demands for services uniquely or competitively offered only by space-oriented operations. Heretofore, available capabilities, rather than these market demands, have determined the degree and type of commercial market access. Removing this limitation through extensive use of modularity and reconfigurability allows the company to gear itself to the market, while still remaining extremely competitive with existing systems. The markets identified as lucrative, and that have governed much of the design requirements, are: low-cost launch services to LEO over a wide range of payload masses and inclinations; upper stage payload delivery from LEO to GEO; manned space operations and human transport to and from orbit; EVA assembly and maintenance of large space structures; satellite servicing and repair by both humans and telerobotic operations; a line of customized satellites designed for extended life and capable of reconfiguration or technology upgrade on orbit; small-scale microgravity experimentation and manufacturing supported by spacecraft retrieval capabilities for experimental specimens and manufactured goods; and a full-range of payload integration, testing, design, and support services before launch and once in orbit.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of the domestic satellite communications forecast to the year 2000

The methodologies and results of three NASA-sponsored market demand assessment studies are presented and compared. Forecasts of future satellite addressable traffic (both trunking and customer premises services) were developed for the three main service categories of voice, data and video and subcategories thereof for the benchmark years of 1980, 1990 and 2000. The contractor results are presented on a service by service basis in two formats: equivalent 36 MHz transponders and basic transmission units (voice: half-voice circuits, data: megabits per second and video: video channels). It is shown that while considerable differences exist at the service category level, the overall forecasts by the two contractors are quite similar. ITT estimates the total potential satellite market to be 3594 transponders in the year 2000 with data service comprising 54 percent of this total. The WU outlook for the same time period is 2779 transponders with voice services accounting for 66 percent of the total.

Poley, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Aviation fuels outlook

Options for satisfying the future demand for commercial jet fuels are analyzed. It is concluded that the most effective means to this end are to attract more refiners to the jet fuel market and encourage development of processes to convert oil shale and coal to transportation fuels. Furthermore, changing the U.S. refineries fuel specification would not significantly alter jet fuel availability.

Momenthy, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Symposium Proceedings of the 1998 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG)

Contents include the following: airline deregulation in Australia: a medium term assessment; why can't Japan deregulate the airline industry and open the sky immediately?; toward a market-oriented air transport system?: present developments in Russian civil aviation performance and policy; the asian economic crisis and its implications for aviation policy in asia pacific: industry outlook approaching the next millennium; a tale of two airlines: the post privatization performance of two caribbean airlines: the role of capital productivity in British Airways' financial recovery; airline privatization: does it matter?; airfright demand: responding to new developments in logistics; and air cargo business relationships.

Reynolds-Feighan, Aisling↗
NASA NTRS1986

An assessment of the status and trends in satellite communications 1986-2000: An information document prepared for the Communications Subcommittee of the Space Applications Advisory Committee

This is a response to a Space Applications Advisory Committee (SAAC) request for information about the status and trends in satellite communications, to be used to support efforts to conceive and recommend long range goals for NASA communications activities. Included in this document are assessments of: (1) the outlook for satellite communications, including current applications, potential future applications, and impact of the changing environment such as optical fiber networks, the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) standard, and the rapidly growing market for Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT); (2) the restrictions imposed by our limited spectrum resource; and (3) technology needs indicated by future trends. Potential future systems discussed include: large powerful satellites for providing personal communications; VSAT compatible satellites with onboard switching and having voice capability; large satellites which offer a pervasive T1 network service (primarily for video-phone); and large geostationary communications facilities which support common use by several carriers. Also, discussion is included of NASA particular needs and possible future systems. Based on the mentioned system concepts, specific technology recommendations are provided for the time frames of now - 1993, 1994 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010.

Poley, W. A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A photovoltaic industry overview - The results of a survey on photovoltaic technology industrialization

The National Photovoltaics Program of the United States Department of Energy has the objective of bringing photovoltaic power systems to a point where they can supply a significant portion of the United States energy requirements by the year 2000. This is planned to be accomplished through substantial research and technology development activities aimed at achieving major cost reductions and market penetration. This paper presents information derived from a limited survey performed to obtain photovoltaic industry attitudes concerning industrialization, and to determine current industry plans to meet the DOE program goals. Silicon material production, a key photovoltaic manufacturing industry, is highlighted with regards to implementation of technology improvement and silicon material supply outlook.

Ferber, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Computational aerodynamics development and outlook /Dryden Lecture in Research for 1979/

Some past developments and current examples of computational aerodynamics are briefly reviewed. An assessment is made of the requirements on future computer memory and speed imposed by advanced numerical simulations, giving emphasis to the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations and to turbulent eddy simulations. Experimental scales of turbulence structure are used to determine the mesh spacings required to adequately resolve turbulent energy and shear. Assessment also is made of the changing market environment for developing future large computers, and of the projections of micro-electronics memory and logic technology that affect future computer capability. From the two assessments, estimates are formed of the future time scale in which various advanced types of aerodynamic flow simulations could become feasible. Areas of research judged especially relevant to future developments are noted.

Chapman, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Agricultural Productivity Forecasts for Improved Drought Monitoring

Water stresses on agricultural crops during critical phases of crop phenology (such as grain filling) has higher impact on the eventual yield than at other times of crop growth. Therefore farmers are more concerned about water stresses in the context of crop phenology than the meteorological droughts. However the drought estimates currently produced do not account for the crop phenology. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have developed a drought monitoring decision support tool: The U.S. Drought Monitor, which currently uses meteorological droughts to delineate and categorize drought severity. Output from the Drought Monitor is used by the States to make disaster declarations. More importantly, USDA uses the Drought Monitor to make estimates of crop yield to help the commodities market. Accurate estimation of corn yield is especially critical given the recent trend towards diversion of corn to produce ethanol. Ethanol is fast becoming a standard 10% ethanol additive to petroleum products, the largest traded commodity. Thus the impact of large-scale drought will have dramatic impact on the petroleum prices as well as on food prices. USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) serves as a focal point for economic intelligence and the commodity outlook for U.S. WAOB depends on Drought Monitor and has emphatically stated that accurate and timely data are needed in operational agrometeorological services to generate reliable projections for agricultural decision makers. Thus, improvements in the prediction of drought will reflect in early and accurate assessment of crop yields, which in turn will improve commodity projections. We have developed a drought assessment tool, which accounts for the water stress in the context of crop phenology. The crop modeling component is done using various crop modules within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). DSSAT is an agricultural crop simulation system, which integrates the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather, and management options. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers, growers and has become a de-facto standard in crop modeling communities spanning over 100 countries. The meteorological forcings to DSSAT are provided by NASA s National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) datasets. NLDAS is a framework that incorporates atmospheric forcing and land parameter values along with land surface models to diagnose and predict the state of the land surface.

Limaye, Ashutosh↗
NASA NTRS2016

Development of a Magneto-Resistive Angular Position Sensor for Space Mechanisms

Magnetic microsystems in the form of magneto-resistive (MR) sensors are firmly established in automobiles and industrial applications. They are used to measure travel, angle, electrical current, or magnetic fields. MR technology opens up new sensor possibilities in space applications and can be an enabling technology for optimal performance, high robustness and long lifetime at reasonable costs. In some science missions, the technology is already applied, however, the designs are proprietary and case specific, for instance in case of the angular sensors used for JPL/NASA's Mars rover Curiosity [1]. Since 2013 HTS GmbH and Sensitec GmbH have teamed up to develop and qualify a standardized yet flexible to use MR angular sensor for space mechanisms. Starting with a first assessment study and market survey performed under ESA contract, a very strong industry interest in novel, contactless position measurement means was found. Currently a detailed and comprehensive development program is being performed by HTS and Sensitec. The objective of this program is to advance the sensor design up to Engineering Qualification Model level and to perform qualification testing for a representative space application. The paper briefly reviews the basics of magneto-resistive effects and possible sensor applications and describes the key benefits of MR angular sensors with reference to currently operational industrial and space applications. The key applications and specification are presented and the preliminary baseline mechanical and electrical design will be discussed. An outlook on the upcoming development and test stages as well as the qualification program will be provided.

Hahn, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1998

Fiber Pulling Apparatus

The fiber optics industry has grown into a multi-billion marketplace that will continue to grow into the 21st century. Optical fiber communications is currently dominated by silica glass technology. Successful efforts to improve upon the low loss transmission characteristics of silica fibers have propelled the technology into the forefront of the communications industry. However, reaching the theoretical transmission capability of silica fiber through improved processing has still left a few application areas in which other fiber systems can provide an influential role due to specific characteristics of high theoretical transmission in the 2 - 3 micron wavelength region. One of the other major materials used for optical fibers is the systems based upon Heavy Metal Fluoride Glass (HMFG). Commercial interest is driven primarily by the potential for low loss repeaterless infrared fibers. An example of the major communications marketplace which would benefit from the long distance repeaterless capability of infrared fibers is the submarine cables which link the continents. When considering commercial interests, optical fiber systems provide a healthy industrial position which continues to expand. Major investments in the systems used for optical fiber communications have continued to increase each year and are predicted to continue well into the next century. Estimates of 8.5% compounded annually are predicted through 1999 for the North American market and 1 1 % worldwide. The growth for the optical fiber cable itself is expected to continue between 44 and 50 per cent of the optical fiber communications budget through 1999. The total budget in 1999 world-wide is expected to be in the neighborhood of $9 billion. Another survey predicts that long haul telecommunications represents 15% of a world-wide fiber optics market in 1998. The actual amount allotted to cable was not specified. However, another market research had predicted that the cable costs alone represents more than 50% of the total budget each year through 1998. A newly emerging activity is the commercial development of doped optical fibers which can be pumped by laser diodes to provide amplification of the communication signals. This technology is newly emerging and will be developed for commercial interests in the United States by Galileo Electro-optical Incorporated in Sturbridge, MA on a license from British Telecom. Long repeaterless communication links provide the biggest stimulus for this technology. As an example of the of the revenues involved in the optical fiber communications 3 industry, the current trade journal lists that for the fiscal years, 1991 - 1994, 185 separate undersea links were established. In addition, another 105 links are planned through 1998. The distribution of revenues involved in the undersea installations is roughly $8.5 billion through 1993 and another $13 billion planned through 1998. A large portion of the future activity (34%) is planned for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Region. Other examples of the commercial utility of optical fiber networks is given in a recent scientific symposium in which the outlook for HMFG infrared fiber was determined to be very bright.Another area of interest lies in the use of fiber optics for laser surgery delivery systems.

Workman, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Advances in Thermoplastic Composites Over Three Decades – A Literature Review

Recently, there has been a renewed interest in thermoplastic composites driven mainly by advances in automation which can lead to significant cost reductions by increasing manufacturing rates while simultaneously reducing the part count and energy consumption relative to the manufacturing of thermoset composites. At the same time, new material systems have been developed and the thermoplastic composites prepreg material quality has improved over time. Additionally, thermoplastic composites have nearly infinite room-temperature shelf life and production scraps can be reused and retired parts can be recycled, providing opportunities for more sustainable operations and downstream markets. These factors have contributed to a strong interest in advancing thermoplastic composites for aerospace, automotive, and other industrial applications. The objective of the present study is to assess the state of the art regarding the maturity and performance of thermoplastic composite materials and to document the advances made in manufacturing and assembly of thermoplastic composite structures. Therefore, more than 200 NASA reports, conference proceedings and journal papers spanning three and a half decades (1986-2022) were reviewed and the findings summarized. The current study, however, is limited in scope with a focus on the application of thermoplastic composites to aircraft structures. Further, the study does not provide a comprehensive assessment of the available literature but rather offers an overview of past and present research being conducted in the field of thermoplastic composites. The information provided may be used to identify gaps and help guide future research and development. In this report, the opportunities offered by the use of thermoplastic composites in general and challenges encountered in particular are presented first. Second, an overview of thermoplastic materials is presented, manufacturing methods are discussed, and new methods for fastener-less assembly such as welding are introduced. Third, tests that have been performed on different levels of the building block, ranging from coupon to structural level, are presented. In particular, fracture toughness results for different thermoplastic composite materials are used to demonstrate their performance compared to state-of-the-art thermoset composites. Fourth, several examples of analyses are discussed including process modelling and progressive damage analysis (PDA). An extensive list of references and appendices with tables support the narrative. Lastly, a brief summary with outlook and recommendations for future research is provided.

composites↗