ESD and SLS Natural Environments Update & SLS Day-of-Launch (DOL) Wind Biasing Launch Availability with Launch Window Effects
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Decker, Ryan↗
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Constellation Ground Systems Launch Availability Analysis: Enhancing Highly Reliable Launch Systems Design
Success of the Constellation Program's lunar architecture requires successfully launching two vehicles, Ares I/Orion and Ares V/Altair, within a very limited time period. The reliability and maintainability of flight vehicles and ground systems must deliver a high probability of successfully launching the second vehicle in order to avoid wasting the on-orbit asset launched by the first vehicle. The Ground Operations Project determined which ground subsystems had the potential to affect the probability of the second launch and allocated quantitative availability requirements to these subsystems. The Ground Operations Project also developed a methodology to estimate subsystem reliability, availability, and maintainability to ensure that ground subsystems complied with allocated launch availability and maintainability requirements. The verification analysis developed quantitative estimates of subsystem availability based on design documentation, testing results, and other information. Where appropriate, actual performance history was used to calculate failure rates for legacy subsystems or comparative components that will support Constellation. The results of the verification analysis will be used to assess compliance with requirements and to highlight design or performance shortcomings for further decision making. This case study will discuss the subsystem requirements allocation process, describe the ground systems methodology for completing quantitative reliability, availability, and maintainability analysis, and present findings and observation based on analysis leading to the Ground Operations Project Preliminary Design Review milestone.
Gernand, Jeffrey L.↗
Constellation Ground Systems Launch Availability Analysis: Enhancing Highly Reliable Launch Systems Design
Success of the Constellation Program's lunar architecture requires successfully launching two vehicles, Ares I/Orion and Ares V/Altair, in a very limited time period. The reliability and maintainability of flight vehicles and ground systems must deliver a high probability of successfully launching the second vehicle in order to avoid wasting the on-orbit asset launched by the first vehicle. The Ground Operations Project determined which ground subsystems had the potential to affect the probability of the second launch and allocated quantitative availability requirements to these subsystems. The Ground Operations Project also developed a methodology to estimate subsystem reliability, availability and maintainability to ensure that ground subsystems complied with allocated launch availability and maintainability requirements. The verification analysis developed quantitative estimates of subsystem availability based on design documentation; testing results, and other information. Where appropriate, actual performance history was used for legacy subsystems or comparative components that will support Constellation. The results of the verification analysis will be used to verify compliance with requirements and to highlight design or performance shortcomings for further decision-making. This case study will discuss the subsystem requirements allocation process, describe the ground systems methodology for completing quantitative reliability, availability and maintainability analysis, and present findings and observation based on analysis leading to the Ground Systems Preliminary Design Review milestone.
Gernand, Jeffrey L.↗
Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) "Orion", and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, MPCV, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.
Watson, Mike↗
Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing new capabilities for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth's orbit. This effort includes the Space Shuttle derived Space Launch System (SLS), the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). There are several requirements and Technical Performance Measures (TPMs) that have been levied by the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) upon the SLS, Orion, and GSDO Programs including an integrated Launch Availability (LA) TPM. The LA TPM is used to drive into the SLS, Orion and GSDO designs a high confidence of successfully launching exploration missions that have narrow Earth departure windows. The LA TPM takes into consideration the reliability of the overall system (SLS, Orion and GSDO), natural environments, likelihood of a failure, and the time required to recover from an anomaly. A challenge with the LA TPM is the interrelationships between SLS, Orion, GSDO and the natural environments during launch countdown and launch delays that makes it impossible to develop an analytical solution for calculating the integrated launch probability. This paper provides an overview of how Discrete Event Simulation (DES) modeling was used to develop the LA TPM, how it was allocated down to the individual programs, and how the LA analysis is being used to inform and drive the SLS, Orion, and GSDO designs to ensure adequate launch availability for future human exploration.
Staton, Eric↗
Launch Availability Analysis for the Artemis Program
On March 26, 2019, Vice President Pence stated that the policy of the Trump administration and the United States of America is to return American astronauts to the Moon within the next five years i.e., by 2024. Since that time, NASA has begun the process of developing concepts of operations and launch campaign options to achieve that goal as well as to provide a sustainable human presence on the Moon. Whereas the Apollo program utilized one Saturn V rocket to carry out a single lunar landing mission of short duration, NASA’s preliminary plans for the Artemis Program call for a combination of medium lift class rockets along with the heavy lift Space Launch System (SLS)to achieve a lunar landing by 2024 as well as subsequent missions. This paper describes how discrete event simulation is used to model the launch campaigns and provide metrics on launch availability and mission duration for each element being launched. Possible methods for improving launch availability are presented.
Grant Cates↗
Use of DES Modeling for Determining Launch Availability for SLS
(1) NASA is developing a new heavy lift launch system for human and scientific exploration beyond Earth orbit comprising of the Space Launch System (SLS), Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO); (2) The desire of the system is to ensure a high confidence of successfully launching the exploration missions, especially those that require multiple launches, have a narrow Earth departure window, and high investment costs; and (3) This presentation discusses the process used by a Cross-Program team to develop the Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Launch Availability (LA) Technical Performance Measure (TPM) and allocate it to each of the Programs through the use of Discrete Event Simulations (DES).
Watson, Michael↗
Effect of pitch program variations on launch availability of Atlas/Centaur-AC-7 to AC-15
Pitch programs for Atlas Centaur vehicle launch times based on wind profile data
LAUNCH DATE↗
Effectivity of atmospheric electricity on launch availability
Thunderstorm days at KSC; percentage of frequency of thunderstorms (1957-1989); effect of lightning advisory on ground operations; Shuttle launch history; Shuttle launch weather history; applied meteorology unit; and goals/operational benefits. This presentation is represented by viewgraphs.
Ernst, John A.↗
Space Shuttle Launch Availability Circa 2003-2005
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
William M Cirillo↗
Enhancing Fast Transfer Launch Availability to the NRHO Using A Phasing Loop Approach
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Bill Benson↗
Spaceport Performance Measures
Spaceports have traditionally been characterized by performance measures associated with their site characteristics. Measures such as "Latitude" (proximity to the equator), "Azimuth" (range of available launch azimuths) and "Weather" (days of favorable weather) are commonly used to characterize a particular spaceport. However, other spaceport performance measures may now be of greater value. These measures can provide insight into areas of operational differences between competing spaceports and identify areas for improving the performance of spaceports. This paper suggests Figures of Merit (FOMs) for spaceport "Capacity" (number of potential launch opportunities per year and / or potential mass' to low earth orbit (LEO) per year); "Throughput" (actual mass to orbit per year compared to capacity); "Productivity" (labor effort hours per unit mass to orbit); "Energy Efficiency" (joules expended at spaceport per unit mass to orbit); "Carbon Footprint" tons CO2 per unit mass to orbit). Additional FOMS are investigated with regards to those areas of special interest to commercial launch operators, such as "Assignment Schedule" (days required for a binding assignment of a launch site from the spaceport); "Approval Schedule" (days to complete a range safety assessment leading to an approval or disapproval of a launch vehicle); "Affordability" (cost for a spaceport to assess a new launch vehicle); "Launch Affordability" (fixed range costs per launch); "Reconfigure Time" (hours to reconfigure the range from one vehicle's launch ready configuration to another vehicle's configuration); "Turn,Around Time" (minimum range hours required between launches of an identical type launch vehicle). Available or notional data is analyzed for the KSC/CCAFS area and other spaceports. Observations regarding progress over the past few decades are made. Areas where improvement are needed or indicated are suggested.
Finger, G. Wayne↗
Generating Exploration Mission-3 Trajectories to a 9:2 NRHO using Machine Learning
The purpose of this thesis is to design a machine learning algorithm platform that provides expanded knowledge of mission availability through a launch season by improving trajectory resolution and introducing launch mission forecasting. The specific scenario addressed in this paper is one in which data is provided for four deterministic translational maneuvers through a mission to a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) with a 9:2 synodic frequency. Current launch availability knowledge under NASA's Orion Orbit Performance Team is established by altering optimization variables associated to given reference launch epochs. This current method can bean abstract task and relies on an orbit analyst to structure a mission based on an established mission design methodology associated to the performance of Orion and NASA's Space Launch System. Introducing a machine learning algorithm trained to construct mission scenarios within the feasible range of known trajectories reduces the required interaction of the orbit analyst by removing the needed step of optimizing the orbit to fit an expected translational response required of the spacecraft. In this study, k-Nearest Neighbor and Bayesian Linear Regression successfully predicted classical orbital elements for the launch windows observed. However both algorithms had limitations due to their approaches to model fitting. Training machine learning algorithms off of classical orbital elements introduced a repetitive approach to reconstructing mission segments for different arrival opportunities through the launch window and can prove to be a viable method of launch window scan generation for future missions.
Guzman, Esteban↗
Temporal Variability of Upper-level Winds at the Eastern Range, Western Range and Wallops Flight Facility
Space launch vehicle commit-to-launch decisions include an assessment of the upper-level (UL) atmospheric wind environment to assess the vehicle's controllability and structural integrity during ascent. These assessments occur at predetermined times during the launch countdown based on measured wind data obtained prior to the assessment. However, the pre-launch measured winds may not represent the wind environment during the vehicle ascent. Uncertainty in the UL winds over the time period between the assessment and launch can be mitigated by a statistical analysis of wind change over time periods of interest using historical data from the launch range. Without historical data, theoretical wind models must be used, which can result in inaccurate wind placards that misrepresent launch availability. Using an overconservative model could result in overly restrictive vehicle wind placards, thus potentially reducing launch availability. Conversely, using an under-conservative model could result in launching into winds that might damage or destroy the vehicle. A large sample of measured wind profiles best characterizes the wind change environment. These historical databases consist of a certain number of wind pairs, where two wind profile measurements spaced by the time period of interest define a pair.
Decker, Ryan K.↗
Alternate multiple-outer-planet missions using a Saturn-Jupiter flyby sequence
A study has been made of a method for providing more frequent launch opportunities for multiple-planet Grand Tour type missions to the outer solar system. A Saturn-Jupiter flyby sequence was used in the analysis to initiate the mission instead of the normal Jupiter-Saturn sequence. The Saturn-first approach is shown to yield several new launch opportunities following the 1980 cutoff date for Jupiter-first missions. Results are given for various two-planet, three-planet, and four-planet Jupiter-first and Saturn-first missions. A unique five-planet Saturn-first mission and a Saturn-Jupiter flyby which returns to earth are also discussed. Mission performance is evaluated for each flyby technique by comparing Saturn-first and Jupiter-first missions with respect to launch energy requirements, available launch windows, planetary encounter conditions, and total mission times.
Young, J. W.↗
Development of a New Data Tool for Computing Launch and Landing Availability with Respect to Surface Weather
The Marshall Space Flight Center Natural Environments Branch has a long history of expertise in the modeling and computation of statistical launch availabilities with respect to weather conditions. Their existing data analysis product, the Atmospheric Parametric Risk Assessment (APRA) tool, computes launch availability given an input set of vehicle hardware and/or operational weather constraints by calculating the climatological probability of exceeding the specified constraint limits, APRA has been used extensively to provide the Space Shuttle program the ability to estimate impacts that various proposed design modifications would have to overall launch availability. The model accounts for both seasonal and diurnal variability at a single geographic location and provides output probabilities for a single arbitrary launch attempt. Recently, the Shuttle program has shown interest in having additional capabilities added to the APRA model, including analysis of humidity parameters, inclusion of landing site weather to produce landing availability, and concurrent analysis of multiple sites, to assist in operational landing site selection. In addition, the Constellation program has also expressed interest in the APRA tool, and has requested several additional capabilities to address some Constellation-specific issues, both in the specification and verification of design requirements and in the development of operations concepts. The combined scope of the requested capability enhancements suggests an evolution of the model beyond a simple revision process. Development has begun for a new data analysis tool that will satisfy the requests of both programs. This new tool, Probabilities of Atmospheric Conditions and Environmental Risk (PACER), will provide greater flexibility and significantly enhanced functionality compared to the currently existing tool.
Burns, K. Lee↗
Final Environmental Impact Statement for the Ulysses Mission (Tier 2)
This Final (Tier 2) Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) addresses the environmental impacts which may be caused by implementation of the Ulysses mission, a space flight mission to observe the polar regions of the Sun. The proposed action is completion of preparation and operation of the Ulysses spacecraft, including its planned launch at the earliest available launch opportunity on the Space Transportation System (STS) Shuttle in October 1990 or in the backup opportunity in November 1991. The alternative is canceling further work on the mission. The Tier 1 EIS included a delay alternative which considered the Titan 4 launch vehicle as an alternative booster stage for launch in 1991 or later. This alternative was further evaluated and eliminated from consideration when, in November 1988, the U.S. Air Force, which procures the Titan 4, notified that it could not provide a Titan 4 vehicle for the 1991 launch opportunity because of high priority Department of Defense requirements. The Titan 4 launch vehicle is no longer a feasible alternative to the STS/Inertial Upper Stage (IUS)/Payload Assist Module-Special (PAM-S) for the November 1991 launch opportunity. The only expected environment effects of the proposed action are associated with normal launch vehicle operation and are treated elsewhere. The environmental impacts of normal Shuttle launches were addressed in existing NEPA documentation and are briefly summarized. These impacts are limited largely to the near-field at the launch pad, except for temporary stratospheric ozone effects during launch and occasional sonic boom effects near the landing site. These effects were judged insufficient to preclude Shuttle launches. There could also be environmental impacts associated with the accidental release of radiological material during launch, deployment, or interplanetary trajectory injection of the Ulysses spacecraft. Intensive analysis indicates that the probability of release is small. There are no environmental impacts in the no-action alternative; however, the U.S. Government and the European Space Agency would suffer adverse fiscal and programmatic impacts if this alternative were adopted. The scientific benefits of the mission would be delayed and possibly lost. There could be significant impacts on the ability of the U.S. to negotiate international agreements for cooperative space activities.
Source record↗
Galileo 1989 VEEGA trajectory design
The new baseline for the Galileo Mission is a 1989 Venus-earth-earth gravity-assist (VEEGA) trajectory, which utilizes three gravity-assist planetary flybys in order to reduce launch energy requirements significantly compared to other earth-Jupiter transfer modes. The launch period occurs during October-November 1989. The total flight time is about 6 years, with November 1995 as the most likely choice for arrival at Jupiter. Optimal 1989 VEEGA trajectories have been generated for a wide range of earth launch dates and Jupiter arrival dates. Launch/arrival space contour plots are presented for various trajectory parameters, including propellant margin, which is used to measure mission performance. The accessible region of the launch/arrival space is defined by propellant margin and launch energy constraints; the available launch period is approximately 1.5 months long.
D'Amario, Louis A.↗