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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems

This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.

dynamic load modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electromagnetic Transient Modeling of Data Centers

This report serves as a user manual for the accompanying EMT model library developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) for various equipment in large data centers. The EMT model library enables detailed modeling of large data center loads for conducting grid stability studies. The EMT model library for data centers include detailed models of a 5.5 kW power supply unit (PSU), a 2.5 uninterruptible power supply (UPS), a 260 MW gas turbine-generator, a 500 kW motor load, and a 33 kW IT rack. These components represent all major equipment in data centers that need to be modeled for performing grid stability studies for data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Large Load Impacts to Distribution System Hosting Capacity

This work examined the impact of large loads on utility distribution system models using the Sandia-developed open-source software DREAMS. It was shown that hosting capacity varies with location and changes after any asset is added to, or removed from, a system. Despite the tested models having similar rated voltages and other characteristics, their thermal and voltage constrained hosting capacity varied over 2 MW. The addition of a 3-phase balanced constant power large load with power factor of 1.0 exhibited non-linear reductions to all voltage constrained hosting capacities. The reductions to thermal constrained hosting capacity from a load with similar characteristics was more linear, related to the size of the added load, and did not impact all model buses. Co-located capacitors were shown to accommodate demand that was beyond the baseline voltage constrained hosting capacity limits, however, the costs and benefits from this approach were found to not be 1:1 and required additional available thermal capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Framework for Data Center

This chapter highlights the critical need for advanced modeling of data centers due to their rapidly increasing energy consumption and impact on grid reliability. Driven by the demand for AI applications, data centers are projected to consume a significant portion of US energy by 2028, putting stress on an already challenged power grid. The chapter emphasizes the importance of "fast" time-scale models to understand the dynamic interactions between data centers and the grid, especially given the rapid power fluctuations of AI workloads. It outlines a modeling framework that includes both offline and real-time EMT domain simulations, detailing the necessary representations for various components like utility interfaces, transformers, IT loads, UPS, cooling loads, Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), generators, protection systems, and higher-level control systems. While standard simulation tools like PSCAD offer basic models, custom development is often required to accurately capture the unique and fast-changing behaviors of modern data centers. The chapter also discusses key metrics and test cases for validating these models, focusing on transient load responses, protection relay coordination, and demand flexibility. Finally, it addresses the challenges of modeling large-scale data centers, such as computational complexity and the trade-off between model fidelity and practicality, suggesting hybrid modeling approaches as a solution. The overarching goal is to create a robust framework that helps assess data center impacts on grid stability, identify vulnerabilities, and inform the development of standards for reliable integration of these large loads into the bulk power system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

DRDMannTurb: A Python package for scalable, data-driven synthetic turbulence

Synthetic turbulence models (STMs) are used in wind engineering to generate realistic flow fields and are employed as inputs to industrial wind simulations. Examples include prescribing inlet conditions in large eddy simulations that model loads on wind turbines and tall buildings. We are interested in STMs capable of generating fluctuations based on prescribed second-moment statistics since such models can simulate environmental conditions that closely resemble on-site observations. To this end, the widely used Mann model (see Mann, 1994, 1998) is the inspiration for DRDMannTurb. The Mann model is described by three physical parameters: a magnitude parameter influencing the global variance of the wind field and corresponding to the Kolmogorov constant multiplied by the rate of viscous dissipation of the turbulent kinetic energy to the two-thirds, αϵ 2/3 , a turbulence length scale parameter L, and a nondimensional parameter Γ related to the lifetime of the eddies. A number of studies, as well as international standards (e.g., those by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC)), include recommended values for these three parameters with the goal of standardizing wind simulations according to observed energy spectra. Yet, having only three parameters, the Mann model faces limitations in accurately representing the diversity of observable spectra. This Python package enables users to extend the Mann model and more accurately fit field measurements through flexible neural network models of the eddy lifetime function. Following Keith et al. (2021), we refer to this class of models as Deep Rapid Distortion (DRD) models. DRDMannTurb also includes a general module implementing an efficient method for synthetic turbulence generation based on a domain decomposition technique. This technique is also described in Keith et al. (2021).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Modeling of a Two-Stage Ocean Current Turbine

The Equinox Ocean Turbines (EQOT) current energy converter has a unique design with power generation in two small-diameter turbines attached to the tips of a large-diameter passive rotor. This configuration offers some key advantages for capturing ocean currents. With no centrally placed generator, almost no reaction torque is required at the nacelle of the main large-diameter rotor, and the small-diameter tip turbine generators operate at a higher speed and lower torque. The physics that determine the performance and loads on the turbine are also unique. The interactions of the flow field between the two stages and the general architecture of the system cannot be captured with traditional mid-fidelity modeling tools. For design iterations and large sets of load cases, it is important to have mid-fidelity models that can capture the important phenomenon with enough accuracy to identify global trends. This work uses a limited set of high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations to help inform the selection of and construction of a custom mid-fidelity model. Mid-fidelity modeling approaches were verified by comparing key turbine performance quantities to those found with the CFD model. Hydrodynamic interactions of the two-stage rotor were identified through high-fidelity CFD modeling. This highlighted the impact of the main rotor tip vortex and wake on the secondary rotor apparent inflow. This results in a relative flow rotation and sharp deficit, that change the optimal secondary rotor rotation speed and adds unsteadiness to the blade loading respectively. Multiple mid-fidelity approaches were evaluated for their ability to capture these effects. A simple approximation of the combined-stage performance based on single-stage BEM provides a reasonable rough prediction, especially near the peak TSR values, with some larger discrepancy at higher TSRs. Predicting the combined-stage performance based on single-stage CFD data improves this prediction across the TSR range. Although the combined-stage modeling in OLAF was not successful in this stage of the project, it showed promise as a mid-fidelity method, assuming the parameters can be tuned to account for the significant differences in time and length scales between the main and secondary rotors. This may be addressed through code changes in future work. A significant finding from the OLAF work was the agreement between the vortex core radius values found independently via a parameter space search and via CFD. The technique of using single-stage secondary rotor BEM, with a custom inflow taken from single-stage main rotor CFD or OLAF, provides an efficient method to capture one-way coupled flow interactions. This method provided generally good predictions of the impact of the flow rotation on the secondary rotor but struggled to accurately predict the peaks of the unsteady load progression. Future work could include some superposition of a tuned main rotor trailing edge viscous wake into the custom inflow to better predict this interaction.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Overview of Electric Vehicle Load Modeling Strategies for Grid Integration Studies

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has emerged as a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector, which has motivated the implementation of public policies to promote their use in several countries. However, the high adoption of EVs poses challenges for the electricity sector, as it would imply an increase in energy demand and possible impacts on the power quality (PQ) of the power grid. Therefore, it is important to conduct EV integration studies in the power grid to determine the amount that can be incorporated without causing problems and identify the areas of the power sector that will require reinforcements. Accurate EV load patterns are required for this type of study that, through mathematical modeling, reflect both the dynamic behavior and the factors that influence the decision to recharge EVs. This article aims to present an overview of EVs, examine the different factors considered in the literature for modeling EV load patterns, and review modeling methods. EV load modeling methods are classified into deterministic, statistical, and machine learning. The article shows that each modeling method has its advantages, disadvantages, and data requirements, ranging from simple load modeling to more accurate models requiring large datasets.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2027

Nodal capacity expansion planning with flexible large-scale load siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission, and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach and assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking of three DWM-based wake models at below-rated wind speeds

Wind turbine wake models are essential tools for predicting power losses and structural loads in wind farms. Among these, the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model, included as a recommended approach in the International Electrotechnical Commission design standard, is a widely used engineering-fidelity method that balances accuracy and computational cost. This study compares the performance of three DWM-based wake model implementations (from the Technical University of Denmark, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the Institute for Energy Technology) under below-rated wind speed conditions. Model predictions of wake flow, power output, and structural loads for a four-turbine row are evaluated across different ambient turbulence levels and wind-direction misalignments and compared against high-fidelity large-eddy simulation results. All three models captured the overall wake evolution and mean turbine performance with reasonable accuracy; their predicted time-averaged thrust and power were typically within 5 %–10 % of the large-eddy simulation benchmark. However, notable differences emerged in wake structure and unsteady load predictions, with discrepancies increasing for turbines further downstream. These differences highlight the importance of modelling choices such as wake summation and turbulence treatment, which strongly influence power-deficit and fatigue-load predictions. Comparison with large-eddy simulations reveals each approach's strengths and weaknesses, indicating where improvements are needed. Overall, the findings point to specific refinements for DWM models to improve their fidelity, ultimately enabling more robust wake predictions for wind farm design and operation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Extreme-scale EV charging infrastructure planning for last-mile delivery using high-performance parallel computing

Here, this paper addresses stochastic charger location and allocation problems under queue congestion for last-mile delivery using electric vehicles (EVs). The objective is to decide where to open charging stations and how many chargers of each type to install, subject to budgetary and waiting-time constraints. We formulate the problem as a mixed-integer non-linear program, where each station-charger pair is modeled as a multiserver queue with stochastic arrivals and service times to capture the notion of waiting in fleet operations. The model is extremely large, with billions of variables and constraints for a typical metropolitan area; even loading the model in solver memory is difficult, let alone solving it. To address this challenge, we develop a Lagrangian-based dual decomposition framework that decomposes the problem by station and leverages parallelization on high-performance computing systems, where the subproblems are solved by using a cutting plane method and their solutions are collected at the master level. We also develop a three-step rounding heuristic to transform the fractional subproblem solutions into feasible integral solutions. Computational experiments on data from the Chicago metropolitan area with hundreds of thousands of households and thousands of candidate stations show that our approach produces high-quality solutions in cases where existing exact methods cannot even load the model in memory. We also analyze various policy scenarios, demonstrating that combining existing depots with newly built stations under multiagency collaboration substantially reduces costs and congestion. These findings offer a scalable and efficient framework for developing sustainable large-scale EV charging networks.

Capacity allocation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

reVeal: the reV Extension for Analyzing Large Loads [SWR-25-147]

reVeal (the reV Extension for Analyzing Large Loads) is an open-source geospatial software package for modeling the site-suitability and spatial patterns of deployment of large sources of electricity demand under future scenarios. reVeal is part of the reV ecosystem of tools [https://nrel.github.io/reV/#rev-ecosystem].

Pinchuk, Pavlo (Paul) [National Laboratory of the ↗
DOE OSTI2026

OC6 Phase III: Validation of Wind Turbine Aerodynamic Loading During Surge/Pitch Motion

The objective of Phase III of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project was to validate the accuracy of aerodynamic load predictions by offshore wind modeling tools for a floating offshore wind turbine as it experiences large surge-translational and pitch-rotational motion, as would occur during normal operation. The test data considered were generated at Politecnico di Milano – a wind tunnel with a robotic excitation system to emulate wave loading on the wind turbine. Testing was performed using a scaled version of the DTU 10-MW reference model, and motion was prescribed as harmonic oscillations in the surge and pitch directions, independently. A variety of models were examined in the project, performing a three-way validation between engineering-level tools, higher-fidelity tools, and measurement data from two wind tunnel experimental campaigns. The Load Cases (LC) considered in this testing are as follows: LC 1.X - Steady Wind LC 2.X - Unsteady Wind - Surge Motion LC 3.X - Unsteady Wind - Pitch Motion Details on the results of the OC6 Phase III campaign can be found in the following reference: Bergua R., et al. OC6 project Phase III: validation of the aerodynamic loading on a wind turbine rotor undergoing large motion caused by a floating support structure, Wind Energ. Sci., 8, 465–485, https://doi.org/10.5194/wes-8-465-2023, 2023.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliable Integration of AI Data Centers at Scale – Analysis, Modeling and Synthetic Data Generation

This report analyzes the power consumption of large dynamic digital loads using the open-source MIT supercloud and SURF datasets. With an emphasis on the MIT data, we calculate important power consumption characteristics to help system operators improve generation planning and resource allocation. We also introduce a rudimentary model for generating synthetic load profiles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Digital Real-Time Simulation and Power Quality Analysis of a Hydrogen-Generating Nuclear-Renewable Integrated Energy System

This paper investigates the challenges and solutions associated with integrating a hydrogen-generating nuclear-renewable integrated energy system (NR-IES) under a transactive energy framework. The proposed system directs excess nuclear power to hydrogen production during periods of low grid demand while utilizing renewables to maintain grid stability. Using digital real-time simulation (DRTS) in the Typhoon HIL 404 model, the dynamic interactions between nuclear power plants, electrolyzers, and power grids are analyzed to mitigate issues such as harmonic distortion, power quality degradation, and low power factor caused by large non-linear loads. A three-phase power conversion system is modeled using the Typhoon HIL 404 model and includes a generator, a variable load, an electrolyzer, and power filters. Active harmonic filters (AHFs) and hybrid active power filters (HAPFs) are implemented to address harmonic mitigation and reactive power compensation. The results reveal that the HAPF topology effectively balances cost efficiency and performance and significantly reduces active filter current requirements compared to AHF-only systems. During maximum electrolyzer operation at 4 MW, the grid frequency dropped below 59.3 Hz without filtering; however, the implementation of power filters successfully restored the frequency to 59.9 Hz, demonstrating its effectiveness in maintaining grid stability. Future work will focus on integrating a deep reinforcement learning (DRL) framework with real-time simulation and optimizing real-time power dispatch, thus enabling a scalable, efficient NR-IES for sustainable energy markets.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Digital Twin for Reliability Assessment of DC/DC Buck Converter

In commercial applications, the operation of DC/DC converters significantly impacts overall system performance and long-term reliability. This study introduces a data-driven digital twin (DT) approach for estimating critical degradation parameters of DC/DC BUCK converter under steady-state condition. Initially, a circuit-level MATLAB/Simulink digital model (DM C ) is refined against a hardware prototype’s switching model dataset using offline particle swarm optimization. The optimized digital model’s steady-state response is then verified with its average model response while varying the duty and load. Subsequently, degradation profiles are imposed on the inductor, capacitor, MOSFET in the DMC. A large dataset is generated from this model, allowing training, validation, and testing of machine learning (ML) models for component health regression tasks. The proposed method employs random forest ML models, achieving impressive regression results with a squared R value as high as 0.99978 and a root mean square error of 4.2× 10 –6 . The method is further validated on a medium power level DC/DC BUCK prototype with varying load conditions, and includes the analysis of MOSFET’s on-resistance under degradation conditions. This data-driven DT method shows promise for identifying parasitic degradation and ohmic loss parameters, enhancing converter reliability assessments in a non-invasive, generalized, and computationally efficient manner.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗