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An approach to cost analysis in low cost launch vehicle studies.
Cost analysis in low cost launch vehicle studies emphasizing sustaining engineering and plant economics
Model reduction by weighted Component Cost Analysis
Component Cost Analysis considers any given system driven by a white noise process as an interconnection of different components, and assigns a metric called 'component cost' to each component. These component costs measure the contribution of each component to a predefined quadratic cost function. A reduced-order model of the given system may be obtained by deleting those components that have the smallest component costs. The theory of Component Cost Analysis is extended to include finite-bandwidth colored noises. The results also apply when actuators have dynamics of their own. Closed-form analytical expressions of component costs are also derived for a mechanical system described by its modal data. This is very useful to compute the modal costs of very high order systems. A numerical example for MINIMAST system is presented.
Manufacturing Cost Analysis of Advanced Parabolic Trough Collector
The research team performed a detailed bottom-up manufacturing cost estimate for an advanced parabolic trough design - the Solar Dynamics Sunbeam-MT (Sunbeam Mid-Term). This includes all components for manufacturing and assembly in a manufacturing facility (e.g. space frame and arms), and the purchased parts (e.g. mirrors and receiver tubes). Estimates of the construction and assembly activities have been made to then determine an estimated installed cost. Prior analysis has already undertaken detailed bottom-up manufacturing, assembly, and construction analysis for the Ultimate Trough from schlaich bergermann partner (sbp), and this work updates the solar field cost estimates based on a similar aperture area as the SunBeam-MT. For this analysis, the Ultimate Trough is considered the commercial parabolic trough and the Sunbeam-MT as the advanced parabolic trough. For similarity, both the Sunbeam-MT and the Ultimate Trough have been modelled with a solar field with approximately 800,000 square meters (m2) in aperture area - the equivalent of a large CSP plant. The analysis has found a potential installed cost estimate of the Sunbeam-MT could be $120/m2 but must be built at scale to confirm this estimate. Compared to prior analysis, the commercial Ultimate Trough using U.S. conditions, has reduced in installed cost from $178/m2 to $152/m2. Both designs could be even cheaper with Chinese steel.
Order reduction for models of space structures using modal cost analysis
Modal cost analysis furnishes a promising methodology for developing dynamical models of space structures for use in control systems analysis. Economy and accuracy can be attained by only retaining vibration modes that contribute significantly to an appropriately defined cost function. Expressions for modal costs (especially simple for 'lightly damped' structures) are derived for attitude control, vibration suppression, and shape control. These techniques are illustrated through application to a high-order finite element model of a large platform-type structure.
Silicon solar cells, a manufacturing cost analysis
A detailed cost analysis of solar cell module manufacturing, utilizing process sequences incorporating near-term technology, has been performed. The entire structuring of a factory to manufacture solar cell modules, starting from supplied polycrystalline silicon and other raw materials, was specified. This analysis then formed the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the major cost factors. The results of the cost and sensitivity analyses are presented here.
Space Tug Docking Study. Volume 5: Cost Analysis
The cost methodology, summary cost data, resulting cost estimates by Work Breakdown Structure (WBS), technical characteristics data, program funding schedules and the WBS for the costing are discussed. Cost estimates for two tasks of the study are reported. The first, developed cost estimates for design, development, test and evaluation (DDT&E) and theoretical first unit (TFU) at the component level (Level 7) for all items reported in the data base. Task B developed total subsystem DDT&E costs and funding schedules for the three candidate Rendezvous and Docking Systems: manual, autonomous, and hybrid.
Resourcee Escalation and Cost Analysis
Resource Escalation and Cost Analysis Program (RECAP) is cost compilation program for any project organized in work breakdown structure (WBS) format. In WBS at the high level includes those activities at lower level, so each activity at high level includes those activities at lower level. Permits the organization of activities into classes and subclasses.
Cost Analysis In A Multi-Mission Operations Environment
Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single missiontype support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multimission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature serviceoriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.
Cost Analysis in a Multi-Mission Operations Environment
Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single mission-type support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multi-mission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature service-oriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.
Parametric Cost Analysis: A Design Function
Parametric cost analysis uses equations to map measurable system attributes into cost. The measures of the system attributes are called metrics. The equations are called cost estimating relationships (CER's), and are obtained by the analysis of cost and technical metric data of products analogous to those to be estimated. Examples of system metrics include mass, power, failure_rate, mean_time_to_repair, energy _consumed, payload_to_orbit, pointing_accuracy, manufacturing_complexity, number_of_fasteners, and percent_of_electronics_weight. The basic assumption is that a measurable relationship exists between system attributes and the cost of the system. If a function exists, the attributes are cost drivers. Candidates for metrics include system requirement metrics and engineering process metrics. Requirements are constraints on the engineering process. From optimization theory we know that any active constraint generates cost by not permitting full optimization of the objective. Thus, requirements are cost drivers. Engineering processes reflect a projection of the requirements onto the corporate culture, engineering technology, and system technology. Engineering processes are an indirect measure of the requirements and, hence, are cost drivers.
2020 Cost Analysis of Hydropower Options at Non-Powered Dams
This report provides a cost analysis of potential hydropower development for representative non-powered dam (NPD) sites in the United States. The overarching objective is to support the establishment of a basis for evaluating progress towards improving the competitiveness of new hydropower development for electricity generation. The representative sites, herein referred to as “reference sites”, were selected from sites with detailed water resource data to support the cost analysis. Facility designs, capital costs, plant generation and efficiency profiles, capacity factors, and levelized costs of energy (LCOE) are presented for the sites under baseline and near-term innovation cases. The baseline case represents facility configurations using technologies that are already widely applied in the hydropower industry, whereas near-term innovations are technologies likely to reach wide acceptance within the next 5 to 10 years. Cost savings in the near-term relative to the baseline are discussed to illustrate the potential benefits to the hydropower industry from research and development (R&D) and adoption of these innovations. Medium- to long-term innovation options expected from ongoing private and government R&D efforts are also highlighted but are not quantified in this report because of a current lack of complete information on these options. The key findings of the cost analysis in this study imply that near-term innovations could reduce the baseline costs of hydropower development at US NPD sites. Thus, if remaining R&D issues with these near-term innovations can be resolved within the next 5 to 10 years, industry-wide adoption of these technologies and improved competitiveness of NPD hydropower development can be expected. Specific key findings of the analysis include the following: 1) Potential installed capacity at the NPD sites evaluated in this study vary from 200 kW to 70 MW, representing two orders of magnitude variation across nearly 20 sites; 2) Capital costs, not including development costs, for the sites evaluated in this study vary from $2,200/kW to $34,000/kW but are below $12,000/kW for most sites; 3) Baseline LCOE estimates for lake dams are from $79/MWh to $790/MWh with most sites under $400/MWh, whereas estimates for lock dams are from $134/MWh to $289/MWh with most sites under $200/MWh; 4) Reductions in capital cost per kilowatt under the near-term innovation case are from −77% to −14% for lake dams and −21% to −2.1% for lock dams (excluding one site with a 14% increase in per-kilowatt capital costs); 5) Combined changes in capital costs and capacity factors in the near-term case relative to the baseline lead to reductions in LCOE of −71% to −14% for lake dams and −21% to −14% for lock dams; 6) Overall, LCOE reductions lead to 8 of the 18 sites under the near-term case having LCOE values below $150/MWh compared with only 2 of 18 sites in the baseline case.
Cost Analysis for Large Civil Transport Rotorcraft
This paper presents cost analysis of purchase price and DOC+I (direct operating cost plus interest) that supports NASA s study of three advanced rotorcraft concepts that could enter commercial transport service within 10 to 15 years. The components of DOC+I are maintenance, flight crew, fuel, depreciation, insurance, and finance. The cost analysis aims at VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) and CTOL (conventional takeoff and landing) aircraft suitable for regional transport service. The resulting spreadsheet-implemented cost models are semi-empirical and based on Department of Transportation and Army data from actual operations of such aircraft. This paper describes a rationale for selecting cost tech factors without which VTOL is more costly than CTOL by a factor of 10 for maintenance cost and a factor of two for purchase price. The three VTOL designs selected for cost comparisons meet the mission requirement to fly 1,200 nautical miles at 350 knots and 30,000 ft carrying 120 passengers. The lowest cost VTOL design is a large civil tilt rotor (LCTR) aircraft. With cost tech factors applied, the LCTR is reasonably competitive with the Boeing 737-700 when operated in economy regional service following the business model of the selected baseline operation, that of Southwest Airlines.
Cost analysis of water recovery systems
Cost and performance data from Gemini, Skylab, and other aerospace and biotechnology programs were analyzed to identify major cost elements required to establish cost estimating relationships for advanced life support subsystems for long range planning in support of earth orbital programs. Cost analysis are presented for five leading water reclamation systems; (1) RITE waste management-water system;(2) reverse osmosis system;(3) multifiltration system;(4) vapor compression system; and(5) closed air evaporation system with electrolytic pretreatment.
Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures
Life-Cycle Cost Analysis Framework for Water Efficiency Measures: Guidance Designed for Federal Agencies (hereafter referred to as “this report”) provides a technical framework for federal agencies to conduct a life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for water efficiency projects in accordance with 42 U.S.C. § 8253. This report leverages insights from the 2023 report, PNNL-34006, Water and Wastewater Annual Price Escalation Rates for Selected Cities Across the United States: 2023 Edition (Unger et al. 2023). The primary objective of this report is to provide a framework to assist federal agencies with evaluating the full economic impact of water efficiency projects by assessing both initial investments and long-term operational benefits. An LCCA can provide a comprehensive view of all costs associated with a water efficiency project, including initial investment, ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M), and eventual disposal or replacement, ensuring the most cost-effective solution is selected. The LCCA methodology outlined in this report enables users to compare base case scenarios with potential alternatives using a standardized present value approach. It incorporates key cost components such as energy, water and wastewater, installation, O&M, and equipment replacement. Additionally, the framework introduces relevant evaluation metrics, such as the net savings and the savings-to-investment ratio, to ensure that water efficiency measures are economically justified over the lifespan of the project. To support practical application, this report also describes various water efficiency strategies that may be analyzed using an LCCA, including plumbing retrofits, irrigation upgrades, alternative water use, and cooling system improvements. By applying this framework, federal agencies can ensure compliance with regulatory mandates while maximizing the return on investment and contributing to resilient water management practices. The information provided in this report is aligned with the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) life-cycle cost (LCC) methodology, as conveyed in National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Handbook 135 (Kneifel and Webb 2022). This report is intended to provide relatively high-level guidance, acting as a complement to, rather than a substitute for, that resource.
Refractory Materials for Flame Deflector Protection System Corrosion Control: Flame Deflector Protection System Life Cycle Cost Analysis Report
A 20-year life cycle cost analysis was performed to compare the operational life cycle cost, processing/turnaround timelines, and operations manpower inspection/repair/refurbishment requirements for corrosion protection of the Kennedy Space Center launch pad flame deflector associated with the existing cast-in-place materials and a newer advanced refractory ceramic material. The analysis compared the estimated costs of(1) continuing to use of the current refractory material without any changes; (2) completely reconstructing the flame trench using the current refractory material; and (3) completely reconstructing the flame trench with a new high-performance refractory material. Cost estimates were based on an analysis of the amount of damage that occurs after each launch and an estimate of the average repair cost. Alternative 3 was found to save $32M compared to alternative 1 and $17M compared to alternative 2 over a 20-year life cycle.
H 2 Production Pathways Cost Analysis (2016 - 2021) (Final Report)
This final report documents cost analysis conducted for the Department of Energy over a five year period (2016 to 2021) pertaining to hydrogen production and delivery system components, focusing on the key remaining challenges of the technology pathways within the Hydrogen Production and Delivery sub-program portfolio. A particular focus was placed on electrolysis for the generation of hydrogen. The effort primarily used the H2A discounted cash flow computational model as a tool to project hydrogen cost ($/kgH 2 ) and determine status improvements resulting from technology advancements. The effort also considered cost as a function of production volume, employed error bars to illustrate uncertainties in the cost estimates, and utilized sensitivity analyses to show the potential for cost reductions. The project examined a range of hydrogen production and delivery related systems. These included WireTough wire-wrapped pressure vessels for hydrogen storage, proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, solid oxide electrolysis (SOE), anion exchange membrane (AEM) electrolysis, photoelectrochemical (PEC) electrolysis, solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) production, the cost of energy transmission, and a study on the necessary price of hydrogen to produce competitively-priced electricity via fuel cell conversion.
New technologies for solar energy silicon - Cost analysis of dichlorosilane process
A reduction in the cost of silicon for solar cells is an important objective in a project concerned with the reduction of the cost of electricity produced with solar cells. The cost goal for the silicon material is about $14 per kg (1980 dollars). The process which is currently employed to produce semiconductor grade silicon from trichlorosilane is not suited for meeting this cost goal. Other processes for producing silicon are, therefore, being investigated. A description is presented of results obtained for the DCS process which involves the production of dichlorosilane as a silicon source material for solar energy silicon. Major benefits of dichlorosilane as a silicon source material include faster reaction rates for chemical vapor deposition of silicon. The DCS process involves the reaction 2SiHCl3 yields reversibly SiH2Cl2 + SiCl4. The results of a cost analysis indicate a total product cost without profit of $1.29/kg of SiH2Cl2.