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AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Methanol mixing controlled combustion process enabled by methanol dehydration to dimethyl ether

This work demonstrates an initial proof-of-concept approach for operating a compression ignition off-road and marine relevant engine using neat methanol. The approach utilizes mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) of methanol that is enabled by a homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) pre-burn of premixed dimethyl ether (DME). Although two fuels are used, this work explores and evaluates the opportunity and performance to generate the premixed fuel via. methanol catalytic dehydration over an alumina catalyst at engine relevant temperatures, pressures, and space velocities. Conversion purity and species output results from catalytic dehydration bench flow reactor studies were coupled with single cylinder experiments of the characterized output species for pre-burn HCCI performance. Subsequent initial methanol MCCI performance is also evaluated and compared relative to conventional diesel combustion. The detailed flow reactor results show that the catalytic dehydration conversion efficiency of methanol to DME is a function of system pressure, temperature, and space velocity. The engine results demonstrate that a 100% conversion of methanol to DME is not required for successful pre-burn HCCI, and the water formed during the dehydration process does not need to be removed to achieve the desired HCCI event from this pre-burn mixture. Subsequent methanol MCCI combustion results show that the level of methanol slip in the dehydration process affects the pre-burn HCCI phasing, low temperature heat release process, and magnitude of energy released, all of which can dictate the available window for direct injection of methanol for MCCI combustion.

Jatana, Gurneesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000288903225)

First look at neutron emission shape characteristics of ignition hotspots at the National Ignition Facility (invited)

The nuclear imaging system has been capturing neutron images of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) driven implosions for over a decade at the National Ignition Facility. This imaging system has evolved from one to three nearly orthogonal lines-of-sight, allowing for the study of three-dimensional shape characteristics of ignition shots. Limited-view tomography algorithms help visualize the burning hotspot in 3D and assess neutron source geometry using Legendre mode parameters. With its neutron, gamma-ray, and x-ray image reconstruction capabilities, NIS has provided critical insight into mechanisms that have limited implosion performance, such as fill tube diameter for ignition-type targets. This comprehensive diagnostic suite opens a window into the shape characteristics of ignition shots and how symmetry affects ICF implosion performance. In more recent ignition shots, neutron yields have visibly increased. Analyzing the shape and size of the reconstructed neutron source has shown an expansion of the burn volume, which is indicative of more efficient alpha heating during the implosion process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Fabrication, oxidation, and combustion of nanoscale magnesium diboride and tetraboride

The difficult ignition of boron decreases the combustion efficiency of boron-loaded, fuel-rich propellants. One approach to solving this problem involves the use of magnesium diboride (MgB2), which ignites easier than boron. Magnesium tetraboride (MgB4) offers greater energy density owing to its higher boron content. However, the effect of B/Mg ratio on the ignition and combustion is unknown. Additionally, while nanoscale MgB₂ particles and quasi-2D structures were recently recognized as promising energetic additives, the oxidation and combustion properties of nanoscale MgB₄ have not been explored. The objectives of the present work included synthesis, purification, and high-energy ball milling of MgB2 and MgB4 powders as well as investigation of their thermal decomposition, oxidation, and combustion. The MgB2 and MgB4 powders were fabricated by combustion synthesis in the chemical oven mode and by heating Mg/B mixtures in a tube furnace. The latter method was superior in the synthesis of MgB4. Oxide impurities in the synthesized powders were removed by acid leaching. Nanoscale powders were obtained by high-energy ball milling. Thermal decomposition and oxidation of the obtained MgB₂ and MgB₄ powders were investigated by conducting non-isothermal thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) at temperatures up to 1550 °C in argon and oxygen flows. Combustion of B, MgB₂, and MgB₄ powders with oxygen at atmospheric pressure was studied in a windowed chamber using laser ignition and high-speed video recording. The TGA has shown multi-step decomposition of both magnesium borides in an argon environment. The maximum oxidation rate of MgB4 in oxygen was observed at a much lower temperature than in the case of MgB2. In the combustion experiments, both magnesium borides burned much faster than submicron boron. Ball milling of the borides further increased their burning rates. It has been concluded that nanoscale magnesium tetraboride is a promising ingredient for fuel-rich propellants owing to its high energy density, efficient oxidation, and rapid combustion.

Molina, Andre [The University of Texas at El Paso]

Power and particle exhaust in the ST-E1 fusion power plant

Power exhaust challenges and potential solutions for a 5 m major radius, low-aspect ratio burning tokamak have been explored. 1D edge plasma models have been used to screen for access to detachment using short and long outer divertor legs in double and single null configurations, using Ar as the primary impurity and assuming tungsten plasma-facing components (PFCs). These show that detachment access can be accessed for all but the most conservative assumptions on scrape-off layer (SOL) width and power, but that trade-offs will be required between magnet engineering and the size of the acceptable window of as-yet uncertain plasma parameters. SOLPS-ITER was used to further model selected plasma scenarios, confirming that Ar seeding can be used to achieve dissipative divertor scenarios with peak deposited heat fluxes below 15 MWm -2 . Initial scoping of first wall loads and positioning of limiters has been carried out, showing the feasibility of protecting the breeding blanket wall during steady state without impeding tritium breeding. Initial PFC technology selection is also presented, identifying this as a critical area where further work is needed to find an attractive solution for helium-cooled PFCs that can handle high heat fluxes without excessive power requirements. Key questions and trade-offs for concept development have been identified, including: how to achieve high radiation for reduction of SOL power without core performance degradation; whether power exhaust can be well-controlled in a double null plasma; mechanical design and materials challenges of high-heat flux PFCs; and control of material erosion, redeposition and tritium retention.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Tank Waste Characterization: History, Challenges, and Success Stories

The preparation and chemical and radiochemical analysis of Hanford tank waste samples can be performed with standard laboratory equipment and instruments as relatively routine processes that are not particularly challenging. Rather, the main challenges of tank waste characterization are associated with radiological dose and sampling limitations. Accurate, representative and effective sampling techniques are difficult with the waste tanks because they were not designed for routine sampling. There are a finite number of sampling locations for each tank based on riser positioning, depth and the operational functionality of the sampling riser. For example, in one recently emptied SST, there was one riser that was found to have had concrete dumped down it, thereby eliminating that sampling port. Additionally, the waste within the tank; especially true for the saltcake and sludge, is not homogenous. The ability to adequately mix a million-gallon double shell tank (DST) is a concern for data reproducibility. Another real challenge that must be addressed for sampling single shell tanks, is how to dissolve the salt cake waste in a compromised (leaking) SST. These physical constraints mean that uncertainty in the representativeness of samples must be considered when applying analytical results to the bulk contents of the tank. The tank waste is highly radioactive and thus can only be handled initially by facilities that can receive samples into concrete-shielded hot cells with remote operation with an example provided in Figure 1. The shielding protects the worker from the radiological dose while mineral oil windows and remotely operated manipulators enables the samples to be handled. At Hanford, analytical laboratories with these hot cell capabilities are limited to the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the main Hanford operations support laboratory, 222-S Laboratory. Because of their highly radioactive nature, samples must be sufficiently diluted to facilitate their analysis outside of a shielded cell. In some cases, this means some accuracy must be compromised to complete the analysis beyond that normally encountered for non-radioactive material.

Waste Characterization, BBI, PHOENIX: Tank Farms:

Core performance predictions in projected SPARC first-campaign plasmas with nonlinear CGYRO

This work characterizes the core transport physics of SPARC early-campaign plasmas using the PORTALS-CGYRO framework. Empirical modeling of SPARC plasmas with L-mode confinement indicates an ample window of breakeven (Q > 1) without the need of H-mode operation. Extensive modeling of multi-channel (electron energy, ion energy, and electron particle) flux-matched conditions with the nonlinear CGYRO code for turbulent transport coupled to the macroscopic plasma evolution using PORTALS reveals that the maximum fusion performance to be attained will be highly dependent on the near-edge pressure. Stiff core transport conditions are found, particularly when fusion gain approaches unity, and predicted density peaking is found to be in line with empirical databases of particle source-free H-modes. Impurity optimization is identified as a potential avenue to increase fusion performance while enabling core-edge integration. Extensive validation of the quasilinear TGLF model builds confidence in reduced-model predictions. The implications of projecting L-mode performance to high-performance and burning-plasma devices is discussed, together with the importance of predicting edge conditions.

Rodriguez-Fernandez, P. (ORCID:0000000273611131)

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER