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At least 19 records

FAST and Asset-Level Data: Lessons Learned and Insights

This presentation provides an overview of the recently-completed annual collection of Federal motor vehicle fleet data in a new more detailed shape, characterizing the Federal fleet of motor vehicles at the individual level. This data was submitted by Federal agencies through the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST), a Web-based data collection system developed and maintained by INL under a jointly-funded and -managed program for the US Department of Energy and the US General Services Administration. This presentation will cover some of the lessons learned during this first submission of data in this new shape and will explore a few simple examples of new ways this data can be used to gain insights into the makeup and operation of the Federal motor vehicle fleet.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Federal Automotive Statistical Tool: Asset-Level Data - Lessons Learned and Looking Forward

This presentation provides an overview of collecting federal motor vehicle fleet data at the individual vehicle level for the first time during the fall of 2017, lessons learned related how that data was validated, and changes being made based on those lessons. This presentation is one of three comprising a panel discussion with representatives from other Federal agencies. FAST is a Web-based information system managed by the US Department of Energy, the US General Services Administration, and the Energy Information Administration. FAST is used to collect information about the fleet of motor vehicles used and managed by the Federal government.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Asset Level Data Reporting

This presentation provides an overview of the change in how the Federal Automotive Statistical Tool (FAST) will collect per-vehicle data about the Federal government's fleet of motor vehicles, current status of the implementation effort to support that reporting, and lessons learned to date. This presentation is one of three comprising a panel discussion with representatives from other Federal agencies. FAST is a Web-based information system managed by the US Department of Energy, the US General Services Administration, and the Energy Information Administration. FAST is used to collect information about the fleet of motor vehicles used and managed by the Federal government.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Climate-Water-Electricity Interactions in the U.S. Under Alternative Decarbonized Futures

The U.S. electric sector is rapidly evolving, with widespread renewable energy deployment, building and transport electrification, and nuanced decarbonization policies. Climate change influences the supply and demand for electricity by altering water resources for cooling and hydropower, thermal plant efficiencies, and heating and cooling demand. This research combines global climate model data, asset-level water and streamflow modeling, and electric sector capacity expansion modeling to study climate-water-electricity interactions across myriad future climate and electricity scenarios that consider electrification and decarbonization using renewable, hydrogen, carbon capture, and nuclear technologies. Multi-model integration leads to insights into power-water sector interactions and their impacts on grid economics and environmental outcomes.

climate change↗

Reliability modeling in a predictive maintenance context: A margin-based approach

Current system reliability methods (typically based on fault trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate reliability data from the asset to the system level in order to identify system critical points. However, employed asset reliability data are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). Sensor data, diagnostic assessments, and prognostic assessments are in fact not considered in plant reliability models used to inform system engineers on the most critical assets. In addition, the propagation of quantitative health data from the asset to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature and structure of health data elements (e.g., vibration spectra, temperature readings, expected failure time). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating available health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Here, this paper is directly addressing these two goals by proposing a different approach for reliability modeling that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. The propagation of health data from the asset to the system level is performed through fault tree models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated with asset performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired asset performance (i.e., its health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision-making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical assets.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integration of Condition-Based, Diagnostic, Prognostic, And Anomaly Detection Data into Reliability Models to Support a Predictive Maintenance Context

Reliability data employed in plant reliability models are an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience, and they neglect the present asset health status (available, for example, from online monitoring data and diagnostic assessments) and forecasted health projection (when available from prognostic models). Ideally, in a predictive maintenance context, system reliability models should support decision making by propagating actual health information from the asset to the system level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system health and identify the most critical assets. Asset health should be informed solely by that specific asset’s current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industrywide operational experience (as currently performed by system reliability models through Bayesian updating processes). This paper proposes a reliability modeling approach that relies on asset diagnostic and prognostic assessments, along with monitoring data to measure asset health. We show how state-of-the art condition-based, diagnostic, prognostic, and anomaly detection models can be linked to system reliability models not in probability terms, but in terms of margin where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Then, we show how the propagation of margin data from the asset to the system level is performed through classical reliability models such as fault trees or reliability block diagrams. The described method is in fact able to propagate heterogenous health data from the asset to the system level in order to analytically assess system health.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mitigating Data Center Impact on Grid Stability: A Coordinated Control Strategy Using Verrus StabiliGrid Architecture

Large data centers, which now represent a significant and growing share of the total U.S. grid load, can inadvertently destabilize the electrical grid when they disconnect simultaneously during brief voltage disturbances. The July 10, 2024, Eastern Interconnection incident, in which a sub-100-millisecond transmission fault triggered the cascading loss of approximately 1,500 MW of data center load, illustrates this vulnerability. While commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) deployed in data centers provide device-level fault ride-through per IEEE 1547, they lack coordination with facility protection logic and uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), limiting their effectiveness as grid-stabilizing assets. This report presents the Verrus StabiliGrid architecture, a coordinated control framework that integrates BESS, UPS, and point-of-interconnection (POI) protection settings to enable data centers to ride through both undervoltage and overvoltage grid contingencies without disconnecting. The four-step strategy encompasses: (1) high-resolution power quality monitoring to detect the grid state during events such as undervoltage, overvoltage, underfrequency, and overfrequency; (2) POI protection settings that allow for extended ride-through and grid-connected operation during grid contingencies; (3) grid state-driven autonomous dispatch of assets to improve grid resilience by reducing power draw during undervoltage or absorbing more power during overvoltage events; and (4) coordinated post-recovery dispatch of data center assets to restore firm load to pre-contingency levels. Validated through controller-hardware-in-the-loop (C-HIL) simulations at the National Laboratory of the Rockies, results show grid import restoration to pre-fault levels within 100 milliseconds of voltage recovery. This work advances the ability of data centers to transition from passive, disturbance-sensitive loads to active participants in grid stability, a capability increasingly required by emerging NERC and ERCOT regulatory frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) Annual Gross Generation Plant Database, 2003-2024

Existing Hydropower Asset (EHA) Annual Gross Generation is a geospatial point-level dataset containing annual gross generation over time (2003-2024) and key characteristics of operational U.S. pumped storage and hybrid plants with 1 megawatt or greater of nameplate capacity. EIA 923 and EHA are the primary sources of the derived data. Hydropower units are excluded.

Johnson, Megan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000290141741)↗

Existing Hydropower Assets (EHA) Annual Net Generation Plant Database, 2003-2024

Existing Hydropower Asset (EHA) Annual Net Generation is a geospatial point-level dataset containing annual net generation over time (2003-2024) and key characteristics of operational U.S. hydropower plants with 1 megawatt or greater of nameplate capacity. EIA 923 and EHA are the primary sources of the derived data. Pumped storage and hybrid plants are excluded.

Johnson, Megan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000290141741)↗

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO 2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Situational Awareness in Distribution Grid Using Micro-PMU Data: A Machine Learning Approach

The recent development of distribution-level phasor measurement units, a.k.a. micro-PMUs, has been an important step towards achieving situational awareness in power distribution networks. The challenge however is to transform the large amount of data that is generated by micro-PMUs to actionable information and then match the information to use cases with practical value to system operators. This open problem is addressed in this paper. First, we introduce a novel data-driven event detection technique to pick out valuable portion of data from extremely large raw micro-PMU data. Subsequently, a datadriven event classifier is developed to effectively classify power quality events. Importantly, we use field expert knowledge and utility records to conduct an extensive data-driven event labeling. Moreover, certain aspects from event detection analysis are adopted as additional features to be fed into the classifier model. In this regard, a multi-class support vector machine (multi-SVM) classifier is trained and tested over 15 days of real-world data from two micro-PMUs on a distribution feeder in Riverside, CA. In total, we analyze 1.2 billion measurement points, and 10,700 events. Here, the effectiveness of the developed event classifier is compared with prevalent multi-class classification methods, including k-nearest neighbor method as well as decision-tree method. Importantly, two real-world use-cases are presented for the proposed data analytics tools, including remote asset monitoring and distribution-level oscillation analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Security Data Warehouse Application

The Security Data Warehouse (SDW) is used to aggregate and correlate all JSC IT security data. This includes IT asset inventory such as operating systems and patch levels, users, user logins, remote access dial-in and VPN, and vulnerability tracking and reporting. The correlation of this data allows for an integrated understanding of current security issues and systems by providing this data in a format that associates it to an individual host. The cornerstone of the SDW is its unique host-mapping algorithm that has undergone extensive field tests, and provides a high degree of accuracy. The algorithm comprises two parts. The first part employs fuzzy logic to derive a best-guess host assignment using incomplete sensor data. The second part is logic to identify and correct errors in the database, based on subsequent, more complete data. Host records are automatically split or merged, as appropriate. The process had to be refined and thoroughly tested before the SDW deployment was feasible. Complexity was increased by adding the dimension of time. The SDW correlates all data with its relationship to time. This lends support to forensic investigations, audits, and overall situational awareness. Another important feature of the SDW architecture is that all of the underlying complexities of the data model and host-mapping algorithm are encapsulated in an easy-to-use and understandable Perl language Application Programming Interface (API). This allows the SDW to be quickly augmented with additional sensors using minimal coding and testing. It also supports rapid generation of ad hoc reports and integration with other information systems.

Vernon, Lynn R.↗

Energy Adequacy Studies: Nodal vs Zonal and Ramp-Rate Representation

This work investigates limitations in current energy adequacy studies, particularly concerning the representation of grid complexities. We highlight how traditional zonal modeling approaches, which simplify large geographic areas and generator capabilities, can mask critical transmission constraints and localized resource shortfalls. By analyzing nodal versus zonal pricing differences and the empirical distribution of generator ramp-rates, we demonstrate that these simplified assumptions may misrepresent system flexibility and deliverability. Our findings underscore the need for more granular, nodal-level analyses and data-driven characterizations of generation assets to provide a more accurate and robust assessment of energy reliability and adequacy, ultimately supporting a more resilient and efficient energy infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Learning-based Power Management Method for Networked Microgrids Under Incomplete Information

In this paper, we present a model-free reinforcement learning (RL)-based technique to solve the power management problem of networked microgrids (MGs), when the utility has only limited or no detailed knowledge of the MG asset models.The proposed method consists of two levels: at the first level, using an approximate RL strategy and aggregated data, a utility agent determines the locational price signals to maximize its profit under incomplete information on the MGs’ private data behind their points of common coupling (PCC). The proposed RL strategy enables the utility to adapt to changing system conditions and learn from previous experiences, while respecting the data ownership of the MGs. At the second level, the MGs receive the price signals to dispatch their generation/storage assets individually over look-ahead decision time window, while considering power flow constraints. The performance of the proposed RL technique has been verified under realistic operational scenarios.

Zhang, Qianzhi↗