Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “agent based simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

Spannaus, Adam [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225213657)↗
DOE OSTI2020

OpenABLext: An automatic code generation framework for agent-based simulations on CPU-GPU-FPGA heterogeneous platforms

The execution of agent-based simulations (ABSs) on hardware accelerator devices such as graphics processing units (GPUs) has been shown to offer great performance potentials. However, in heterogeneous hardware environments, it can become increasingly difficult to find viable partitions of the simulation and provide implementations for different hardware devices. To automate this process, we present OpenABLext, an extension to OpenABL, a model specification language for ABSs. By providing a device-aware OpenCL backend, OpenABLext enables the co-execution of ABS on heterogeneous hardware platforms consisting of central processing units, GPUs, and field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs).We present a novel online dispatching method that efficiently profiles partitions of the simulation during run-time to optimize the hardware assignment while using the profiling results to advance the simulation itself. In addition, OpenABLext features automated conflict resolution based on user-specified rules, supports graph-based simulation spaces, and utilizes an efficient neighbor search algorithm. We show the improved performance of OpenABLext and demonstrate the potential of FPGAs in the context of ABS. We illustrate how co-execution can be used to further lower execution times. OpenABLext can be seen as an enabler to tap the computing power of heterogeneous hardware platforms for ABS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Agent-based simulation and child protection systems: Rationale, implementation, and verification

Simulation models are an important tool used in health care and other disciplines to support operational research and decision-making. In the child protection literature, simulation models are an under-utilized source of research evidence. Here, in this paper, we describe the rationale for and the development of an agent-based simulation of a child protection system in the US. Using the investigation, prevention service, and placement histories of 600,000 children served in an urban child welfare system, we walk the reader through the development of a prototype known as OSPEDALE. The governing equations built into OSPEDALE probabilistically simulate the onset of investigations. Then, drawing from empirical survival distributions, the governing equations trace the probability of subsequent interactions with the system (recurrence of maltreatment, service referrals, and placement) conditional on the characteristics of children, their assessed risk level, and prior child protection system involvement. As an initial test of OSPEDALE's utility, we compare empirical admission counts with counts generated from OSPEDALE. Though the verification step is admittedly simple, the comparison shows that OSPEDALE replicates the empirical count of new admissions closely enough to justify further investment in OSPEDALE. Management of public child protection systems is increasingly research evidence-dependent. The emphasis on research evidence as a decision-support tool has elevated evidence acquired through randomized clinical trials. Though important, the evidence from clinical trials represents only one type of research evidence. Properly specified, simulation models are another source of evidence with real-world relevance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating efficacy of indoor non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 outbreaks with a coupled spatial-SIR agent-based simulation framework

Contagious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, depend on sufficiently prolonged exposures for the successful transmission of the underlying pathogen. It is important that organizations evaluate the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at mitigating viral transmission among their personnel. We have developed a operational risk assessment simulation framework that couples a spatial agent-based model of movement with an agent-based SIR model to assess the relative risks of different intervention strategies. By applying our model on MIT’s Stata center, we assess the impacts of three possible dimensions of intervention: one-way vs unrestricted movement, population size allowed onsite, and frequency of leaving designated work location for breaks. We find that there is no significant impact made by one-way movement restrictions over unrestricted movement. Instead, we find that reducing the frequency at which individuals leave their workstations combined with lowering the number of individuals admitted below the current recommendations lowers the likelihood of highly connected individuals within the contact networks that emerge, which in turn lowers the overall risk of infection. We discover three classes of possible interventions based on their epidemiological effects. By assuming a direct relationship between data on secondary attack rates and transmissibility in the agent-based SIR model, we compare relative infection risk of four respiratory illnesses, MERS, SARS, COVID-19, and Measles, within the simulated area, and recommend appropriate intervention guidelines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agent-Based Simulation of Price-Demand Dynamics in Multi-Service Charging Station

As the adoption of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles grows, understanding how dynamic pricing strategies influence charging and refueling behaviors becomes crucial for optimizing local energy markets. This paper proposes a simulation-based analysis of a hydrogen-electricity integrated charging station that serves both types of vehicles. A multi-agent simulation framework is developed to model the interactions between vehicles and the station, incorporating price- and delay-sensitive behaviors in decision-making. The station can dynamically adjust energy prices, while vehicles optimize their charging or refueling choices based on their utility values. A series of sensitivity analyses are conducted to evaluate how electricity pricing, infrastructure capacity, and waiting behavior impact station performance. Results highlight that moderate electricity prices maximize user participation without sacrificing profit, infrastructure should be right-sized to demand to avoid over- or underutilization, and delay-toleration also affects service outcomes, which may reach the maximum service coverage at the threshold of 45 minutes.

Wang, Xudong [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-based simulations of shared automated vehicle operations: reflecting travel-party size, season and day-of-week demand variations

Here, this paper explores the effects of day of week and season of year demand variations for shared rides, along with realistic travel party sizes, on shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) services across the Austin, Texas region. Using the agent-based POLARIS program, synthetic person-trips that reflect travel-party size (from one to four persons) and demand variations over days and months, as evident in the National Household Travel Survey data were simulated in each scenario over a 24 h travel day. Results show that realistic party sizes can bring considerable changes to SAV fleet performance, including up to 8.5% higher service rates (number of requests accepted within 15 min), 5 min shorter journey times (wait time + travel time), 28% higher vehicle occupancies on weekends, and roughly 4% lower empty fleet VMT. Weekend travel is most impacted by season of year, with weekday travel patterns looking more uniform (thanks to work and school trips). Various performance metrics for the Austin network, like total and empty VMT, change by up to 30% when considering realistic variations in party size and time of year. This paper underscores the value of recognizing day-to-day and month-to-month variations in travel demand, and the importance of agent-based model equations to reflect travel-party size. Such realism can help quantify SAV seat occupancies more accurately, highlighting the importance of shared mobility. However, it also creates demand and supply issues for operators that now need more information on party size to manage dynamic ride-sharing, or those that may wish to shift their fleet vehicles to other regions for special events to protect profits while offering reasonable wait times to customers throughout the year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Organizational Resilience in the Context of Information Quality: An Agent-Based Simulation of Structural and Cognitive Influences

This study examines how organizational structure and stress levels affect decision-making with poor quality information. Using an agent-based model, it finds loosely structured organizations are timely but less effective at filtering bad information, while tightly structured ones are slower but better at filtering. The research highlights a trade-off between timeliness and robustness and suggests an optimal stress level for decision-making efficacy.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tissue scale agent-based simulation of premalignant progressions in Barrett’s esophagus

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is a benign condition of the distal esophagus that initiates a multistage pathway to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Short of frequent intrusive (and costly) surveillance, effective screening for neoplasia in BE populations is yet to be established since progressors are rare and virtually undetectable without routine biopsies, which often sample only a small portion of the BE tissue. As a result, reliable estimation of the true prevalence of dysplasia in a BE population and evidence-based optimization of screening for at-risk individuals is challenging. Data-driven microsimulations, i.e., model-generated instances of disease history in a predefined virtual population, have found utility in the EAC screening literature as low-overhead alternatives to real-world hypothesis testing of optimal interventions for dysplasia. Despite the successes, computational limitations, paucity of knowledge and data on Barrett’s dysplasia, and the complexities of disease progression as a multiscale multiphysics process have hindered the treatment of disease progression in BE as a spatial process. Agent-based modeling of nucleation and proliferation processes in dysplasia warrants exploration in this context as an approximation that operates at a trade-off between computational tractability and precise representation of the composition and physics of the substrate (tissue). In this study, we describe spatially resolved simulations of premalignant progression toward EAC in a coarse-grained model of Barrett’s tissue that resolves the metaplastic tissue at a length scale of 0.42 mm (~3300 crypts/mm 2 ). Finally, the model is calibrated to reproduce historical high-grade dysplasia prevalence when model-generated patients are screened using the Seattle protocol.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling and Calibration of Supplier Selection Problem in Freight Agent-Based Simulations

Freight transportation modeling often struggles with data limitations, especially in accurately representing complex supplier selection processes and their impact on network flows. This research addresses this critical gap by developing a large-scale, calibrated agent-based model for supplier selection, complemented by a probabilistic heuristic for international shipments. Our approach integrates trade relationships between industry sectors, transportation costs, and a supplier-rating model adapted from existing literature. The model’s core objective is to minimize the discrepancy between modeled and observed commodity flows while ensuring a close match to regional shipping distance distributions. Implemented and tested across four major U.S. metropolitan areas—Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas–Fort Worth, and Los Angeles—the model demonstrates high fidelity in replicating observed freight patterns. Key findings reveal consistent alignment with national shipping distance trends and highlight significant spatial variations in commodity trade assignments and demand across the study regions. This behaviorally informed and transport-sensitive framework is designed to approximate real-world decision making, providing a robust tool for policymakers and planners to evaluate targeted interventions, assess infrastructure investments, and enhance supply chain resilience in the face of disruptions.

Ismael, Abdelrahman (ORCID:0000000303712110)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Agent Simulation Based Framework for Power Restoration Time Estimation at Distribution Level

The growing frequency of power outages has prompted increased interest in developing a more resilient power grid that can quickly recover from weather-related damage. At the distribution level, power restoration is a complex, multi-stage process involving multiple response entities. Providing utility stakeholders, government regulators, and the public with information about outage duration and estimated time to restoration is crucial. The research employs a multi-agent simulation approach, which allows for the simulation of decision-making behaviors among different entities and the incorporation of various uncertainties. Specifically, the study uses the open-source simulation package Mesa-Geo in conjunction with the Python language and constructs a road network using the open-source network extension pgRouting for routing queries. The research design includes several experiments focused on Florida as a case study, comparing repair crew sizes, power outage numbers, and road damage scenarios. The findings could offer valuable managerial guidance on resource allocation in the restoration process.

Chen, Yang↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Multi-Variant Surveillance

Early detection of an emerging VOC (Variant-Of-Concern) is essential for effective preparedness for a disease like COVID-19. The spreading of an emerging VOC not only depends on the disease dynamics of itself but also depends on the state of the circulating variants and the susceptibility of the population. Resources for testing are typically quite limited, and a number of strategies have been considered for deploying them. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the performance of such strategies, especially higher order effects, and inequities, while incorporating constraints on these resources. Here, we develop an agent-based surveillance framework, Networkdetect, to understand the early warning system of an emerging VOC. Our framework allows us to incorporate various population heterogeneities and resource constraints.

Moon, Sifat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000344968809)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Simulation Model for Analyzing Multimodal Transportation of CO2 for CCUS

The overarching goal of this work is to determine how the United States can avoid being constrained by transportation limitations as the CCUS process evolves to a full gigaton-level system. The model is data-driven, open to CO2 supply and demand points defined as input data, and designed to allow for transportation on waterways, rail, or pipeline.

Clark, RobinJ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluate the System-Level Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles Coupled with Shared Mobility: An Agent-based Simulation Approach

With the rapid growth of information and communication technologies, Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) are deemed to be disruptive with the potential to significantly improve overall transportation system efficiency, however, may bring Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) increase or other issues. Further, shared mobility systems are another disruptive force that is reshaping our travel patterns. To quantify the combined impact of CAV and shared mobility on travel behavior, traffic performance and energy efficiency, we develop a mesoscopic simulation-based framework for mobility and energy efficiency evaluation considering the disruptive transportation technologies. Under this framework, we develop novel models for energy intensity and modal activity, and evaluated a variety of energy scenarios for different combinations of CAV applications, various levels of automation, roadway characteristics, and traffic conditions, while also varying different vehicle types and fuel/powertrain technologies. Based applying this modeling suite to a calibrated BEAM simulation network in Riverside California, it was found that cooperative automated driving in general will improve mobility, but automated vehicles, even when deployed in a shared autonomous fleet, will likely bring an increase of VMT (up to 36%) due to mode shifts and deadheading. Ride-hailing vehicles typically have better energy efficiency and a higher share of electric vehicles, which helps offset the negative impact from VMT increases when estimating the system-level energy consumption. In general, simulation results show a 6% increase in energy consumption for the scenarios with an increasing shift to ride-hailing modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗