Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Long-term evolution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Electrode Erosion and Prefire Studies Towards Fusion Scale Pulsed Power

This study presents a comprehensive investigation of electrode erosion and discharge behavior in spark gap switches over long switching cycle lifetimes. Brass, copper–tungsten (CuW), and stainless steel electrodes are tested under controlled conditions to quantify material degradation, debris accumulation, and changes in breakdown voltage. High-resolution imaging and statistical analysis of spark channel locations and gap breakdown voltages reveal how surface evolution influences long-term performance and reliability. These results provide essential data for lifetime modeling and inform design strategies for pulsed power systems in emerging applications such as private sector fusion energy and large-scale facilities like Sandia’s Z Machine and proposed ZX upgrades, where high repetition reliability and predictable behavior are critical.

electrical breakdown↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural operator transformers capture bifurcating drift-wave turbulence in fusion plasma simulations

Self-consistent modeling of turbulence-driven transport is critical for optimizing confinement in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as tokamaks and stellarators. In particular, capturing the long-term co-evolution of turbulence, flow, and background plasma profiles remains computationally challenging. Direct numerical simulation of these multiscale, highly nonlinear processes is often demanding and impractical for real-time control or design optimization. To address this bottleneck, we investigate transformer-based neural operator partial differential equation surrogates for emulating the dynamics of drift-wave turbulence bifurcation mediated by zonal flows, using the modified Hasegawa–Wakatani (MHW) model as a prototypical system. We find that the finetuned neural operator model has excellent performance in capturing the multi-spatiotemporal-scales of MHW turbulence bifurcation and is robust to testing on rare and out-of-distribution dynamics. Specifically, we demonstrate that a single unified model accurately predicts both quasi-steady-state turbulence and a wide range of dynamical transition processes, such as nonlinear saturation, spontaneous suppression of turbulence, and the emergence of macroscopic zonal flows, over time horizons vastly exceeding the local turbulence correlation time. This computationally efficient approach establishes a strong foundation for fast, AI-based modeling of complex, multiscale phenomena in magnetized fusion plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Radiolysis and Chemical Reactions during Dry Storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

After aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) is removed from the reactor, it is initially stored in spent fuel pools, which are specially designed water-filled basins that provide temporary cooling to reduce the temperature of the fuel assemblies and provide radiation shielding. ASNF continues to generate heat due to the radioactive decay of elements within the fuel, which persists for many years post-shutdown as the residual radioactive products decay into more stable elements. During the wet storage period, an oxyhydroxide layer composed of boehmite/bayerite forms on the surfaces of the aluminum cladding from exposure to water in the pools. Road-ready packaging for long-term disposition of the ASNF involves dry storage in helium backfilled DOE standard canisters (DSCs). When the ASNF is removed from water storage and dried, most of the water is removed, but some physisorbed and chemisorbed water remains in the oxyhydroxide layers. This residual water can produce hydrogen when exposed to radiation from the ASNF during dry storage. Predicting hydrogen accumulation over time in the DSCs is critical for long-term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have developed coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-chemical models to simulate temperature, pressure, and gas phase concentrations within the DSCs. These models use the thermal field predicted by CFD as input to a radiolysis model for the gas phase and the surface oxyhydroxide layer chemistry. Given the long storage period of the DSCs and the impracticality of long-term experiments, a simulation-based approach is necessary to assess chemical evolution within the canisters. This study advances the development of a modeling framework designed to simulate the chemical evolution of spent fuel canisters. Both thermal and radiation-driven reactions are considered, with radiation kinetics quantified using G-values. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing species composition. Reaction pathway diagrams offer insight into dominant species formation routes, enabling more effective comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations, particularly regarding the production of hydrogen. Results show that the model predicts significant hydrogen gas production with minimal oxygen generation, primarily due to hydrogen formation via boehmite pathways. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing surface-bound species and radiolysis kinetics. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms is critical for evaluating the long-term safety of nuclear waste storage.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Irradiation-Induced Structural Disorder and Its Influence on the Mechanical Response of Polycrystalline MoS2

Molybdenum disulfide (MoS2) thin films are widely used as dry-film lubricants and protective coatings in aerospace and other radiation-exposed environments. Conventional synthesis routes produce polycrystalline films whose grain boundaries and other native defects cause their mechanical and tribological behavior to differ substantially from that of ideal single crystals. Under irradiation, these films progressively evolve from polycrystalline structures, composed of layered MoS2 grains, into highly disordered and eventually amorphous structures, altering both their tribological performance and mechanical integrity. Here, we employ reactive atomistic simulations to investigate irradiation-driven structural evolution in bulk polycrystalline MoS2. Using controlled primary knock-on atom (PKA) events, we characterize the progressive transition from a polycrystalline microstructure to an amorphous network by tracking defect accumulation and structural disorder. We then establish how this transition modifies the dominant deformation mechanisms and the temperature-dependent tensile response. Specifically, irradiation suppresses interlayer sliding and delamination, mechanisms which facilitate the deformation of the pristine polycrystal, resulting in defect-induced hardening. Broadly, our results establish direct process–structure–property relationships linking irradiation-induced defect accumulation, microstructural evolution, deformation mechanisms, and mechanical behavior, providing an atomistic framework for understanding the structural integrity and long-term reliability of irradiated MoS2 coatings.

Moore, Daniel [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unraveling interphase-driven failure pathways in LiMn0.6Fe0.4PO4/graphite pouch cells

LiMnxFe1−xPO4 (LMFP) is a promising high-voltage, thermally stable, and earth-abundant cathode material, yet its practical application is limited by interphase instability and Mn dissolution. In this work, we systematically evaluate LiMn0.6Fe0.4PO4/graphite pouch cells using three electrolyte formulations including control carbonate electrolyte, control + 2 wt% vinylene carbonate (VC), and control + 2 wt% VC + 1 wt% 1,3,2-dioxathiolane 2,2-dioxide (DTD), to establish how electrolyte composition governs interphase chemistry and long-term degradation. Electrochemical testing shows that both additives are preferentially reduced prior to ethylene carbonate (EC) during cell formation, generating robust cathode-electrolyte interphase (CEI) and solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) layers that suppress gas evolution and raise the first-cycle coulombic efficiency to 89.3%. Additionally, the dual-additive electrolyte delivers the most stable performance, retaining over 85% capacity after 600 cycles while minimizing impedance growth under long-term cycling at C/3 and 40 °C. Soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy confirms that VC + DTD effectively suppresses electrolyte oxidation at the cathode surface, and micro-X-ray fluorescence shows substantially reduced Mn dissolution and deposition on the graphite anode. Density functional theory simulations further provided insights into the structural and energetic influences of alkoxide species on the cathode surface, proposing a Mn2+ extraction mechanism. The combined experimental and computational findings establish a mechanistic link between electrolyte composition and interphase evolution, highlighting the effectiveness of electrolyte engineering for extending the operational lifetime of LMFP-based lithium-ion batteries.

Chak, Chanmonirath Michael↗
NASA NTRS1992

On the isotopic signature of recent solar-wind nitrogen

One of the most intriguing discoveries yielded by the Apollo samples was evidence pointing towards a significant long-term change in the composition of the sun. Such a change, of the size inferred from the lunar sample data, is inconsistent with present theories of solar evolution. Consequently, there is much interest in exploring this phenomenon as closely as possible, to determine exactly what compositional changes have taken place and whether those changes really did take place in the sun, or whether the cause lies elsewhere. The reason why we can use the moon to analyze the elements in the sun is that the sun emits a stream of ions, known as the solar wind, whose composition, on average, is believed to be the same as that in the surface regions of the sun. When the solar-wind ions hit the surface of the moon, many of them penetrate a short distance into the dust grains lying on the lunar surface. Thus, after a grain has sat on the lunar surface for a while, it has a rim of material that is partly lunar and partly solar in composition. For most chemical elements, the difference between lunar and solar composition is so sufficiently small that the solar elements cannot be detected, but for a handful of elements that are missing from the moon, their solar 'signature' can be observed in samples of lunar soil brought back by the astronauts. Among those elements is nitrogen, the most common element in the air we breathe, but very rare indeed on the moon. Our analytical techniques are not sophisticated enough yet to enable us to analyze individual lunar soil grains for nitrogen, much less to zero in on just the nitrogen in the surface of such a grain. Consequently we are forced to analyze samples consisting of many different grains, each of which could have experienced its own individual history. This makes it difficult to identify the nitrogen implanted in grain surfaces, and also to define the age of a sample.

Kim, Y.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decadal-Scale Hydrothermal Alteration of Basalt: Implications for Long-Term Reactivity in Subsurface Technologies

Global demands to secure critical mineral supply chains and managing water resources require innovative resource management strategies. Subsurface basalt reservoirs offer a dual-purpose application, where CO2 enhanced critical metal recovery can be coupled with water remediation strategies for the extraction of economically important and environmentally relevant elements. This study utilizes static batch experiments conducted on Columbia River Basalt Group samples to evaluate long-term fluid–rock interactions relevant to coupled subsurface applications. Samples were reacted under elevated temperature and pressure conditions, for 296 and 4,061 days, providing a unique dataset to assess geochemical evolution, element partitioning, and aqueous chemistry over decadal timescales. The alteration was dominated by silicate, aluminosilicate, and oxide phases. Progressive hydrothermal alteration increased the cation exchange capacity through the formation of secondary minerals (e.g. clays and zeolites), influencing solute retention, ion exchange behavior, and aqueous chemistry. Grain-scale and bulk analyses revealed selective cation release and retention patterns, establishing a mechanistic baseline for predicting element mobility. These geochemical constraints inform the prospective use of CO2-enhanced metal recovery for critical resources (e.g. Co, Ni, Mn, Mg, Ti, Fe) and associated water-quality impacts, providing a foundation for the design and management of engineered fluid–rock systems in basalt reservoirs.

Gibson, Marie N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the fatigue enhancement in a thermally aged cast duplex stainless steel by in situ neutron diffraction

After long-term thermal aging at 400 °C for 3000 h and 10,000 h, a cast duplex stainless steel exhibits promoted fatigue performance, including enhanced three-stage cyclic hardening and prolonged fatigue life. Utilizing in situ neutron diffraction, the phase-specific stresses are resolved, and their evolutions over entire fatigue cycling reveal the underlying mechanisms of the fatigue enhancement. It is found that the ferrite phase bears a much higher stress than the austenite matrix under both as-received and aged conditions. The enhanced cyclic hardening in Stage I is attributed to the strengthening of both phases due to thermal aging, while the enhancement in Stage III results from the martensitic transformation induced strengthening. The fatigue life is prolonged thanks to the cyclic hardening and the delay of martensitic transformation in the austenite phase after thermal aging.

Yu, Dunji [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189467851)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal cycling-driven microstructural changes of eutectic Al–Si phase change materials in SS304 containers revealed by multi-modal imaging

Aluminum-based Al–Si alloys are widely used as phase change materials (PCMs) in thermal energy storage (TES) systems owing to their high volumetric latent heat and superior thermal conductivity. However, their long-term reliability is limited by degradation processes that remain insufficiently understood. In this work, we employ a multimodal, correlative characterization framework to systematically resolve the degradation behavior of eutectic Al–Si PCMs in contact with SS304 containers under repeated thermal cycling. By integrating high-resolution electron microscopy, three-dimensional X-ray fluorescence (3D XRF) imaging, and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), we directly link spatially resolved compositional and microstructural evolution to changes in thermophysical properties. The correlative analysis reveals that elemental leaching of Fe, Cr, and Ni from the stainless-steel container into the PCM drives the formation of intermetallic compounds (IMCs) both at the interface and within the bulk PCM, leading to pronounced compositional heterogeneity. These interfacial reactions and diffusion-induced transformations progressively destabilize the Al–Si eutectic, reducing the effective phase-transforming fraction. Consistent with these observations, DSC measurements show a decrease in melting temperature and latent heat of fusion with thermal cycling. These results underscore the critical influence of interfacial reactions and material compatibility on the stability, durability, and overall performance of Al–Si-based TES systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

In-Situ TEM Molten Salt Corrosion

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) offer a compelling pathway for next-generation nuclear energy, with advantages in thermal efficiency, inherent safety, and flexible fuel management. Yet, halide-based molten salts introduce significant materials challenges, particularly alloy corrosion. Alloy performance in these environments ultimately depends on understanding how corrosion initiates and progresses at the nanoscale, however most existing models rely on post-exposure characterization, leaving degradation mechanisms largely inferred rather than directly observed. NiCr alloys have garnered interest in MSRs applications as the Ni-based matrix provides strength and creep resistance, while Cr content offers oxidation resistance in air. However, NiCr corrosion resistance in chloride salts has proven poor due to preferential chromium dissolution, the formation of Cr-depleted pathways, and grain-boundary attack. This work aims to directly visualize corrosion of Ni-20Cr exposed to LiCl-KCl using in-situ Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) to capture real-time microstructural evolution during corrosion. Experiments will be performed at ~800 °C under controlled pressure conditions while utilizing Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) to analyze elemental redistribution. Observation of chromium depletion fronts, associated surface restructuring, and localized chloride enrichment are expected. Ultimately, this study is expected to provide a link between microscale processes and the macroscopic degradation behaviors relevant to MSR operation in advanced reactor environments. Simultaneously, this approach enables future in-situ investigations regarding alloy composition, salt chemistry, and their influence on corrosion pathways and long-term stability.?

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Powder Characteristics and Processing Methods on Creep Performance of Powder Metallurgy Hot Isostatic Pressed SS316

The U.S. nuclear energy expansion goals are driving the demand for manufacturing routes that can rapidly produce large, complex, near net shape components. Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM HIP) is an advanced manufacturing technique that can be economically scaled-up, while alleviating the supply chain challenges that forging and casting face in terms of cost and lead time constraints. This makes PM-HIP a viable technology to aid and accelerate large-scale part manufacturing for nuclear applications. However, large-scale qualification and deployment of this technology require a thorough understanding of the influence of powder feedstock quality, powder handling history, hot isostatic pressing (HIP) parameters, and subsequent heat treatment on microstructural evolution and elevated temperature mechanical performance. The present work focusses on 316 austenitic stainless steel (SS316) which is most commonly used in high temperature environments for nuclear applications Results from this study show that PM HIPed SS316 meets ASME tensile requirements at room temperature and at elevated temperature. However, creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316 remains inferior to its wrought counterpart, demonstrating that tensile performance alone is not a reliable metric for long duration high temperature integrity. Further, this report delineates powder derived microstructural features that govern creep damage, with key evidences pointing to “microstructural inheritance” from gas atomized powder feedstocks. Commercial SS316 powders of varying chemical compositions and recycling histories were studies, and the results showed large differences in elemental segregation, oxide surface layers and secondary phase distributions. Multi-scale characterization revealed segregation of chromium, molybdenum, manganese and silicon at the boundaries and the precipitation of manganese-, silicon-, and molybdenum-oxides. During HIP consolidation, these surface oxides transform into decorated prior particle boundaries (PPBs) and grain boundary inclusions that persist through conventional post-HIP solution annealing treatment. The retained oxides in post-HIP microstructures were found to influence grain growth, precipitation behavior, and ultimately creep cavitation and fracture. Such post-HIP heat treatments are therefore limited by a complex trade-off between grain growth, and oxide coarsening which aggravate creep damage by acting as nucleation sites for cavities. The objective of this work is to establish an integrated processing–structure–property framework for PM-HIP 316 stainless steel by investigating the influence of powder feedstock characteristics in pre- and post-HIP processing as well as to understand the significance of post-HIP heat treatment on microstructural evolution and creep properties. The results from this report emphasize the significance of powder feedstock integrity in improving creep performance of PM-HIPed SS316, by highlight the effect of rapid solidification, elemental segregation, oxide formation and powder recycling on microstructural defect inheritance following HIP consolidation. Rather than considering HIP processing, solution annealing, and mechanical performance independently, this report treats powder production, HIP consolidation, post-HIP thermal processing, and creep deformation as interconnected stages within a continuous metallurgical process. The resulting framework will provide a scientific basis for developing feedstock engineering strategies capable of improving long-term reliability of PM-HIP stainless steels and accelerating their qualification for advanced nuclear applications.

Ajjarapu, Pavan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electronegativity-Guided Site Differentiation in High-Entropy Alloy for pH-universal Hydrogen Evolution Reactions

Enhancing the intrinsic activity of transition metal catalysts for the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) remains a critical challenge in sustainable energy conversion. Herein, we report an electronegativity-guided site differentiation strategy in a single-phase CoNiCuMoW high-entropy alloy (HEA) via electrodeposition by incorporating high-electronegativity 4d/5d orbital transition metals (Mo, W) into the face-centered cubic (fcc) matrix (CoNiCu). The as-synthesized HEA demonstrates exceptional HER performance in all pH conditions, delivering an outstanding overpotential of 65 mV (alkaline), 28 mV (acidic), and 155 mV (neutral) at a current density of 100 mA cm−2, showing performance comparable to commercial Pt/C and has excellent long-term stability at high current density (1 A cm−2, 1000 h). X-Ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) and density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal that the incorporation of Mo/W simultaneously alters the local coordination environment and induces element-dependent charge redistribution, accompanied by a system-level d-band center downshift, thereby optimizing the hydrogen binding strength across multimetallic sites. Meanwhile, oxophilic Mo/W sites lower the water dissociation energy barrier. These synergistic effects collectively enable efficient and durable pH-universal HER performance.

Wu, Yutong↗
DOE OSTI2026

The dual role of iron in alkaline water electrolysis: A friend or a foe?

Trace iron (Fe) impurities pose a challenge in alkaline water electrolysis (AWE) and can significantly impact long-term performance, yet their comprehensive system-level effects remain poorly understood. Here, we present the mechanistic roles of Fe in AWE, using combined rotation disk electrode studies, zero-gap cell measurements, and durability tests up to 1,000 h. Fundamental electrochemistry shows that Fe deposition proceeds through a solution-mediated pathway, with dendritic growth triggered under specific mass-transport and potential conditions. In single-cell operation, Fe incorporation substantially enhances nickel (Ni)-based anode activity by forming highly active Ni-Fe oxyhydroxides, while cathodic Fe forms either thin films or dendrites, depending on potential, surface morphology, and electrolyte distribution. Although dendrites do not degrade hydrogen evolution performance up to 1,000 h, they reveal partial intrusion into the separator, indicating a potential durability risk. We identify five governing factors controlling Fe dendrite formation and provide design principles for impurity-resilient AWE systems.

Lyu, Xiang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000208673248)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrinsically Conductive {pi}‑d Conjugated Layers with Co–N4 Active Sites for Efficient Nitrate Electrocatalysis and Zinc-Nitrate Batteries

Electrochemical synthesis of ammonia from nitrate has been extensively investigated as a potential alternative to the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process. This approach not only operates under ambient conditions but also simultaneously removes nitrate contaminants while producing ammonia as a value-added product. However, the ongoing quest lies in designing an efficient electrocatalyst that achieves a high ammonia yield rate, high selectivity, and long-term stability. Herein, we report the outstanding performance of a Co–N4 coordinated π-d layered Co3(HITP)2 (HITP = 2,3,6,7,10,11-hexaiminotriphenylene) in nitrate electrocatalysis. The unique combination of abundant Co–N4 active sites and superior electrical conductivity enables significant electrocatalytic activity, delivering a maximum ammonia yield rate of 56.8 mg cm–2 h–1 at −0.8 V vs RHE and a Faradaic efficiency of ∼91% at −0.4 V vs RHE. Mechanistic analysis reveals that alkaline conditions accelerate water dissociation to generate adsorbed hydrogen intermediates (H*), which are utilized by Co–N4 sites to drive the stepwise hydrogenation of nitrate to ammonia while suppressing competing hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) pathways. Furthermore, integration of this catalyst into a zinc-nitrate battery resulted in a maximum power density of 5.3 mW cm–2 and an open-circuit potential of ∼1.45 V. These results highlight the potential of π-d conjugated Co–N4 materials as an efficient catalyst for both environmental remediation and energy conversion.

Namvar, shahrirar↗
DOE OSTI2026

Understanding Discharge‐Driven Growth of Cathode Impedance in Ni‐Rich NMC Cathodes

Degradation of LiNi x Mn y Co 1-x-y O 2 (NMC)-based lithium-ion batteries depends strongly on cut-off voltage ranges. In addition to the high upper cut-off voltage, a high depth of discharge (i.e., lower cut-off voltage) significantly worsens cathode impedance growth and capacity fade during long-term cycling. However, there is currently no consensus on the mechanism behind the negative role of a deep discharge. Here, this phenomenon was investigated in graphite||NMC cells with single-crystal cathodes (LiNi 0.6 Co 0.2 Mn 0.2 O 2 (NMC622) or LiNi 0.76 Co 0.14 Mn 0.10 O 2 (NMC76)) using targeted aging protocols (constant high-voltage holds vs. charge–discharge cycling), while monitoring transition-metal (TM) dissolution, cathode-electrolyte interface (CEI) impedance, and NMC surface composition. We demonstrate a correlation between discharge-driven CEI impedance growth and increased TM dissolution. Furthermore, this degradation pathway is more pronounced in lower-Ni NMC622 than in higher-Ni (NMC76) under comparable delithiation states at charge, with both compositions undergoing the H2→H3 phase transition. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) reveals NMC composition-dependent evolution of surface lattice oxygen and restructured surface layer composition between charged and discharged states. These findings add mechanistic depth to the role of discharge as an active driver of interfacial degradation and provide new insights into its composition dependence.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrospun Ti–Zr Oxide Heterostructures Enable Strongly Anchored Ultralow-Ir Anodes for Durable Acidic Oxygen Evolution

Proton-exchange-membrane water electrolysis (PEMWE) requires acidic oxygen-evolution-reaction (OER) anodes that combine high activity, high durability, and low Ir loading. Here, we report a Ti-Zr composite electrospun oxide (ESO) nanorod support that enables ultralow-Ir anodes for high-performance PEMWE. Zr-containing Ti oxide heterostructures stabilize anatase-rich TiO2, tune the local oxygen-coordination environment, and strengthen interfacial anchoring of IrOx under acidic anodic conditions. The electrospun nanorod network further creates an open, mechanically coherent catalyst layer that improves Ir utilization, ionomer penetration, and mass transport. At an anode loading of 0.2 mgIr cm-2, the optimized Ir/TiZr20-ESO anode delivers a PEMWE mass activity of 0.99 A mgIr-1 at 1.45 V, 28.3 and 43.0 times higher than commercial Ir black and commercial IrO2/TiO2, respectively. The same anode reaches 3.0 and 4.0 A cm-2 at 1.75 and 1.83 V, respectively, and sustains 2000 h operation at 2.0 A cm-2. Also, accelerated stress tests up to 525 hours over 31,500 cycles confirm promising long-term durability, with an insignificant performance decay of 0.4 μV per cycle. Density functional theory indicates that the Ti-Zr oxide heterostructure suppresses Ti demetallation and strengthens IrO2 interfacial binding, rationalizing the improved high-current-density stability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of storage monitoring – update in response to commercial and regulatory drivers

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is in transition from first-of-a kind projects and research-orientated pilots to commercially-motivated applications. Monitoring results from many newly developed and planned large scale commercial projects are limited; however, it is worthwhile to assess their evolution and consider new strategies as part of an effort to assess and document best practices. Commercial monitoring is targeted to activities that comply with regulatory drivers and de-risk investments. Commercial monitoring also supports accounting that storage has occurred and is tied to project financing. It deals with long time frames and large volumes injected into multiple wells and multiple projects in favorable areas. We see developing trends toward reproducible workflows that systematically reduce risks and clarify expectations for oversight and long-term surveillance. Monitoring techniques showing increasing trends include injection zone pressure as a history-matching and compliance tool. To reduce cost and environmental impact of time-lapse seismic data collection, deploying new approaches and tools, such as use of fibre and installed sources are increasingly applied. Concern over the risk of induced seismicity by regulatory bodies and the general public has increased, which has also resulted in increased monitoring. Some techniques used in the early research phases have been sidelined or used only in restricted applications. For example, geochemical analyses in the injection zone as well as the environment are now being deployed less than it was in research-oriented programs, except in the US where it is required by the permitting process. Expectations of frequent area-wide near surface monitoring have also decreased.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗