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Alaska's Rural Building Stock: a Validation Study Using ResStock and Field Data

The availability of accurate national data on demographics, building stock, and energy use is vital for modeling residential buildings and evaluating decarbonization strategies. However, rural and Indigenous populations, including those in rural Alaska, are typically underrepresented in these datasets. These communities face unique challenges due to their remote locations, severe weather conditions, and limited access to resources, resulting in high energy burden. This report examines how rural Alaskan communities are underrepresented in the ResStock housing model and highlights the need for improved data to address their unique housing and energy challenges. Thus, this report examines the representation of rural Alaskan communities within the national housing stock model, ResStock. A validation study was conducted, considering ResStock, Field Data and Aerial and 3D-view data collection (A3DDC) datasets. The validation process started by using the down selecting approach on the ResStock building stock dataset. For the purpose of this study, only the rural Alaska Boroughs and Census areas located in ASHRAE IECC Climate Zone 8 were considered to ensure a more accurate and fair comparison with the field data, which was collected in rural areas located in climate zone 8, specifically within the Nome Census area. While ResStock may accurately represent several characteristics of the building stock for rural Alaska, some differences between modeled, field data, and aerial and 3D-view data collection datasets were identified. The following building characteristics have a high impact on modeled energy consumption and demonstrated large differences: Revisit heating setpoints and consider a substantially higher setpoint distribution, it could potentially address "missing loads" if this is the case. Develop and include Toyo heating in future modeling for ResStock and EnergyPlus. Remove natural gas as a water heater fuel type outside of North Slope County. Foundation type updated to have more crawlspaces rather than basements. Infiltration rates need reexamination for a larger distribution toward higher infiltration rates. Include more vinyl and less brick in exterior wall type and revise wall color for greater proportion of light rather than dark color. Roof material revised from majority shingles to majority metal. Update number of occupants to higher number of occupant count. Building orientation represents a higher proportion of south facing buildings rather than relatively equal. The findings suggest that updating ResStock's probability logic could better represent rural Alaskan buildings. ResStock can be utilized to identify the best upgrades or energy efficiency and energy efficiency improvements, helping community leaders in making more informed decisions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

GDSA - Modeling and Integration – ORNL: PFLOTRAN modeling

This report summarizes work done at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) related to post-closure criticality consequence analysis of dual-purpose canister (DPC) direct disposal in unsaturated alluvium. PFLOTRAN software was used to model the behavior of a breached DPC with low water infiltration rates and unsaturated conditions in alluvial deposits such that a low-power criticality event occurs with a focus on thermal hydrological constraints on criticality timing and power output. This summary describes initial exploration of those thermal hydrological processes and of the long-term average power output from a criticality event that could be sustained without driving water out of the DPC package and thereby terminating the criticality event. The objectives are (1) to identify, for different groundwater infiltration rates, the time at which the DPC fills with water sufficiently to potentially initiate criticality; (2) to bound the power output that could be produced by a criticality event that would thermally drive water out of the package at various percolation rates; and (3) provide an estimate of how the size of a package breach affects the water infiltration and therefore the possibility timing of criticality.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A model for estimating time-variant rainfall infiltration as a function of antecedent surface moisture and hydrologic soil type

Recent research indicates that the use of remote sensing techniques for the measurement of near surface soil moisture could be practical in the not too distant future. Other research shows that infiltration rates, especially for average or frequent rainfall events, are extremely sensitive to the proper definition and consideration of the role of the soil moisture at the beginning of the rainfall. Thus, it is important that an easy to use, but theoretically sound, rainfall infiltration model be available if the anticipated remotely sensed soil moisture data is to be optimally utilized for hydrologic simulation. A series of numerical experiments with the Richards' equation for an array of conditions anticipated in watershed hydrology were used to develop functional relationships that describe temporal infiltration rates as a function of soil type and initial moisture conditions.

Wilkening, H. A.↗

Attaining freshwater and estuarine-water soil saturation in an ecosystem-scale coastal flooding experiment

Abstract Coastal upland forests are facing widespread mortality as sea-level rise accelerates and precipitation and storm regimes change. The loss of coastal forests has significant implications for the coastal carbon cycle; yet, predicting mortality likelihood is difficult due to our limited understanding of disturbance impacts on coastal forests. The manipulative, ecosystem-scale Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m 2 ), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Transient saturation (5 h) of the entire soil rooting zone (0–30 cm) across a 2000 m 2 coastal forest was attained by delivering 300 m 3 of water through a spatially distributed irrigation network at a rate just above the soil infiltration rate. Our water delivery approach also elevated the water table (typically ~ 2 m belowground) and achieved extensive, low-level inundation (~ 8 cm standing water). A TEMPEST simulation approximated a 15-cm rainfall event and based on historic records, was of comparable intensity to a 10-year storm for the area. This characterization was supported by showing that Hurricane Ida’s (~ 5 cm rainfall) hydrologic impacts were shorter (40% lower duration) and less expansive (80% less coverage) than those generated through experimental manipulation. Future work will apply TEMPEST treatments to evaluate coastal forest resilience to changing hydrologic disturbance regimes and identify conditions that initiate ecosystem state transitions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMP Pits and D-Area Watershed Infiltrometer Testing

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted saturated hydraulic conductivity field testing at the Chemical, Metals, and Pesticide Pits (CMP Pits) and the D-Area watershed to develop infiltration rates for use in future updates to the CMP Pits groundwater flow model. Approximately 18 testing locations were selected at each site based on the soil series that were identified in the Soil Survey of Savannah River Plant Area, Parts of Aiken, Barnwell, and Allendale Counties, South Carolina.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMP Pits and D-Area Watershed Infiltrometer Testing

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted saturated hydraulic conductivity field testing at the Chemical, Metals, and Pesticide Pits (CMP Pits) and the D-Area watershed to develop infiltration rates for use in future updates to the CMP Pits groundwater flow model. Approximately 18 testing locations were selected at each site based on the soil series that were identified in the Soil Survey of Savannah River Plant Area, Parts of Aiken, Barnwell, and Allendale Counties, South Carolina.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monitoring strain evolution in water-sand systems using distributed acoustic sensing for geohazard early warning

Rainfall-driven hazards such as landslides, debris flows, and earthen dam failures often arise when water changes the internal strain within sand. This study evaluates the ability of distributed acoustic sensing to monitor these strain changes in real time. We embed a fiber-optic cable in a sand-filled glass cylinder and run controlled dry- and wet-sand experiments to measure how strain develops as water infiltrates, saturates, and drains from the sand. The sensing system detects uneven water movement in dry sand and enables millimeter-scale estimates of infiltration rates, and in wet sand it tracks rising water levels, delayed strain peaks after saturation, and abrupt strain shifts during drainage. These results show that fiber-optic sensing captures subtle strain evolution throughout the full water-sand interaction cycle. The study demonstrates that fiber-optic sensing offers promising potential for real-time and cost-effective monitoring and early warning of rainfall-induced geohazards.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparison of Infiltration Test Methods for Soil Health Assessment

Infiltration rate (IR) has been commonly used as a metric to evaluate soil quality and health. For the USDA Soil Quality Test Kit, a 15-cm (6-in) diameter (ID) cylinder is used to measure IR with 444 cm 3 (equivalent to 2.54 cm or 1 in) of water while other standard IR procedures require substantially larger volumes of water. The general objective of this study was to compare different methods for IR measurement. Using three replications, IR measurements were conducted along a 9-m (27-ft) long transect in two different soil types by the double-ring infiltrometer (DRI) using 25- and 50-cm (10-and 20-in, respectively) cylinders, single-ring infiltrometer (SRI) using 25- and 50-cm cylinders, Cornell sprinkle infiltrometer (CSI) using a 24.1-cm (9.5-in) cylinder, the USDA recommended procedure using a 15-cm diameter cylinder (hereafter referred to as USDA-15 method), and a modified USDA method using a 24.1-cm diameter cylinder. Although the USDA-15 method is simple and requires a small amount of water, based on high variability among replications and significant reduction in IR during early stages of water entry into the soil, the procedure does not offer an accurate estimate of the soil infiltration potential. The CSI procedure was reproducible, but it is more cumbersome to perform than other methods. The DRI, SRI, and CSI methods required a much greater volume of water than the USDA-15 method but produced results that are more consistent. The most consistent results were obtained by the CSI and DRI methods. The modified USDA method results were similar to the SRI method and were an improvement over the original USDA-15 method. For assessing soil health, additional investigations should be conducted to evaluate a modified version of the USDA procedure using a larger cylinder.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of Water Flow in Relation to a Steady Criticality in an Unsaturated Alluvial Repository

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is examining the conditions under which a criticality event could be ruled out for large packages placed in an unsaturated alluvial repository. This work specifically examines the water level in a stylized waste package that is assumed (1) to fail on the top, and (2) to empty as water is driven away—not by boiling—but by fluid flow phenomena driven by thermal gradients. This analysis uses the PFLOTRAN code package. Specifically, this year’s work includes examination of the heat rate at which water is driven away for various percolation rates using the same assumptions listed in the 2022 annual report. The STANDARDS (formerly UNF-ST&DARDS) package has predicted dual-purpose canister (DPC) neutron multiplication factors (k-effectives) ranging above 1.1 (unitless) with failed components. The DPC designs were not created with the intent to use for disposal purposes. Emplacing such packages may be worth consideration if it can be shown that criticality is either extremely unlikely or of very low consequence to the repository’s safety case. This work aims to help establish hydrologic boundary conditions for a highly hypothetical, highly stylized subsurface criticality event. The approach to critical is assumed to be slow, producing steady heating rates under a few kilowatts. For a DPC containing capillary media, the simulated power required for dry-out was proportional to the percolation rate but was unaffected by the size of a large breech on top of the DPC. Results for single cases with no capillary media in the DPC suggest that higher infiltration rates may be required in those cases to cause flooding. Bounding mechanisms and assumptions must be identified and characterized further by performing additional perturbations to various input parameters to demonstrate robustness of the results. This might be accomplished by examining responses to power pulses to determine the system transfer function required to enable a reduced order feedback model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Validation of the solar heating and cooling high speed performance (HISPER) computer code

Developed to give a quick and accurate predictions HISPER, a simplification of the TRNSYS program, achieves its computational speed by not simulating detailed system operations or performing detailed load computations. In order to validate the HISPER computer for air systems the simulation was compared to the actual performance of an operational test site. Solar insolation, ambient temperature, water usage rate, and water main temperatures from the data tapes for an office building in Huntsville, Alabama were used as input. The HISPER program was found to predict the heating loads and solar fraction of the loads with errors of less than ten percent. Good correlation was found on both a seasonal basis and a monthly basis. Several parameters (such as infiltration rate and the outside ambient temperature above which heating is not required) were found to require careful selection for accurate simulation.

Wallace, D. B.↗

Molecular-Weight-Dependent Infiltration and Adsorption of Polymers into Nanochannels

The mesoporous silica shell coating hydrogenolysis nano-catalysts alters the molecular weight distributions of cleaved polymer chains compared to catalysts without a shell. The shell, composed of radially aligned narrow cylindrical nanopores, reduces the formation of low-valued gaseous products and increases the median molecular weight of the product, thus enhancing the value of the products for polymer upcycling. Here, to understand the role of the mesoporous shell, we have studied the spatial distribution of polystyrene chains, used as a model polymer, in the nanochannels in both the melt phase and solution phase. In the melt, we observed from small-angle X-ray scattering experiments that the infiltration rate of the polymer into the nanochannels is inversely proportional to the molecular weight, which is consistent with theory. In theta solution experiments using UV–vis spectroscopy, we found that the shell significantly enhances polymer adsorption compared to nanoparticles without pores. In addition, the degree of polymer adsorption is not a monotonic function of molecular weight but initially increases with the molecular weight before eventually decreasing. The molecular weight for the peak adsorption increases with the pore diameter. This adsorption behavior is rationalized as resulting from a balance between the mixing entropy gain by surface adsorption and the conformational entropy penalty incurred by chains confined in the nanochannels. The spatial distribution of polymer chains in the nanochannels is visualized by energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), and inverse Abel-transformed data reveals a less uniform polymer distribution along the primary pore axis for longer chains.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

County-level assessment of behind-the-meter solar and storage to mitigate long duration power interruptions for residential customers

Customer concerns over electric system resilience could drive early adoption of behind-the-meter solar-plus-storage (BTM PVESS), especially as wildfire, hurricane, and other climate-driven risks to electric grids become more pronounced. However, the resilience benefits of BTM PVESS are poorly understood, especially for residential customers, owing to lack of data and methodological challenges, making it difficult to forecast adoption trends. In this paper, we develop a methodology to model the performance of BTM PVESS in providing backup power across a wide range of customer types, geography / climate conditions, and long duration power interruption scenarios, considering both whole-building backup and backup of specific critical loads. We combine novel, disaggregated end-use load profiles across the continental United States with temporally and geospatially aligned solar generation estimates. We then implement a PVESS dispatch algorithm to calculate the amount of load served during interruptions. We find that PVESS with 10 kWh of storage can meet a limited set of critical loads in most United States counties during any month of the year, though this capability drops to meeting only 86% of critical load, averaged across all counties and months, when heating and cooling are considered critical. Backup performance is lowest in winter months where electric heat is common (southeast and northwest U.S.) and in summer months in places with large cooling loads (southwest and southeast U.S.). Winter backup performance varies by roughly 20% depending on infiltration rates, while summer performance varies by close to 15% depending on the efficiency of the central air-conditioning system. Differences in temperature set-points in Harris County correspond to a 40% range in winter backup performance and a 20% range in summer performance. Economic calculations show that a customer’s resilience value of PVESS must be high to motivate adoption of these systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating post-fire watershed response to varying burn severity and precipitation regimes using fully-distributed and integrated hydrologic models

Wildfires can cause significant changes in vegetation and soil, which may lead to increased surface runoff and soil erosion, thereby affecting water cycling within ecosystems. This study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated and fully distributed hydrologic model at the watershed scale, to examine post-fire hydrologic responses in selected watersheds with varying burn severities in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. The model integrates surface overland flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes. We have developed a new fire module in ATS to account for changes in soil hydraulic properties caused by fire in the topsoil layer. Modeling results indicate that, in the year following a high-severity burn, watershed-averaged evapotranspiration decreases by 25%. Additionally, post-fire peak flows increase by 18-29% in watersheds burned with medium to high severity due to changes in soil properties. Conversely, a low-severity burn results in less than a 1% increase in post-fire peak flow. Furthermore, a high-severity fire causes a 38% reduction in the infiltration rate within the affected watershed during the first post-fire wet season. Hypothetical numerical experiments with varying precipitation regimes after a high-severity fire show that post-fire peak flows can increase by 1-29% due to fire-induced changes in soil hydraulic properties. This study highlights the importance of using fully distributed hydrologic models to quantify disturbance-feedback loops, which are essential for understanding the complexities brought about by spatial heterogeneity in post-fire landscapes.

ATS↗

Electrothermal mineralization of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances for soil remediation

Abstract Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are persistent and bioaccumulative pollutants that can easily accumulate in soil, posing a threat to environment and human health. Current PFAS degradation processes often suffer from low efficiency, high energy and water consumption, or lack of generality. Here, we develop a rapid electrothermal mineralization (REM) process to remediate PFAS-contaminated soil. With environmentally compatible biochar as the conductive additive, the soil temperature increases to >1000 °C within seconds by current pulse input, converting PFAS to calcium fluoride with inherent calcium compounds in soil. This process is applicable for remediating various PFAS contaminants in soil, with high removal efficiencies ( >99%) and mineralization ratios ( >90%). While retaining soil particle size, composition, water infiltration rate, and cation exchange capacity, REM facilitates an increase of exchangeable nutrient supply and arthropod survival in soil, rendering it superior to the time-consuming calcination approach that severely degrades soil properties. REM is scaled up to remediate soil at two kilograms per batch and promising for large-scale, on-site soil remediation. Life-cycle assessment and techno-economic analysis demonstrate REM as an environmentally friendly and economic process, with a significant reduction of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emission, water consumption, and operation cost, when compared to existing soil remediation practices.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A senstitivity study of the ground hydrologic model using data generated by an atmospheric general circulation model

The Ground Hydrologic Model (GHM) developed for use in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) has been refined. A series of sensitivity studies of the new version of the GHM were conducted for the purpose of understanding the role played by various physical parameters in the GHM. The following refinements have been made: (1) the GHM is coupled directly with the planetary boundary layer (PBL); (2) a bulk vegetation layer is added with a more realistic large-scale parameterization; and (3) the infiltration rate is modified. This version GHM has been tested using input data derived from a GCM simulation run for eight North America regions for 45 days. The results are compared with those of the resident GHM in the GCM. The daily average of grid surface temperatures from both models agree reasonably well in phase and magnitude. However, large difference exists in one or two regions on some days. The daily average evapotranspiration is in general 10 to 30% less than the corresponding value given by the resident GHM.

Sun, S. F.↗