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Life-cycle analysis is essential to assessing the greenhouse gas impacts and decarbonization potential of transportation fuels and vehicle powertrains.
Electric vehicles are promoted as ‘clean’ technologies and offer promising reductions in transportation emissions. Nevertheless, their environmental benefits critically depend on the local electricity grid mix and the type of emission being considered. Here, we conduct a comparative life cycle assessment of the four dominant light-duty vehicle categories at both the global scale and in three representative countries: Norway, the US, and China. By analyzing different environmental indicators, particularly global warming potential and respiratory effects, and quantifying related parametric uncertainties, we reveal that the advantages of electric vehicles vary across these regions and across environmental impact types. While electric vehicles offer considerable decarbonization potential as the grid mix becomes cleaner, they might not mitigate other environmental impacts, such as increased respiratory effects on rural, low-income communities. Our results support stakeholders in identifying environmentally friendly vehicle and policy options while considering multiple factors, and emphasize the importance of tailored approaches over one-size-fits-all solutions in sustainable transportation.
Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.
Recent research has shown the energy-saving potential of occupancy-based HVAC controls (OBCs) in commercial buildings. However, building energy codes have not fully adopted this technology. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness and decarbonization benefits of OBCs and provide guidance for integrating occupancy sensors into building energy code development. To this end, a parametric simulation using EnergyPlus and a nationwide cost-effectiveness analysis are carried out considering three building types and 40 representative cities in the U.S. Here, the findings reveal that the current cost-effectiveness performance of OBCs is limited due to the high cost of occupancy sensors. However, incorporating the societal cost of carbon factor in future energy and environmental policy could greatly enhance the actual cost-effectiveness performance. Besides, a reduction in the cost of occupancy sensors to approximately 60% of the current price level could also greatly shorten the discounted payback period of OBCs. Additionally, OBCs demonstrate significant potential in building decarbonization, with potential CO 2 emissions savings of more than 5.56 million metric tons across the three building types and 40 selected cities. Finally, policy implications are provided to guide the incorporation of occupancy-based HVAC controls in future energy codes.
This provides a summary of draft modeling efforts undertaken by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Industrial Efficiency and Decarbonization Office (IEDO) as an extension and expansion of the 2022 Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap. IEDO is providing these draft modeling results to support stakeholder engagement and inform office- and department wide strategy and decision making. Section 1 provides an overview of the context for this analysis and modeling as well as information on the decarbonization pillars characterized and the models themselves. Section 2 presents modeling results of one net-zero emissions pathway each for six industrial subsectors: cement, chemicals, food and beverage, iron and steel, petroleum refining, and pulp and paper. It is important to note that these pathways are just one example and there is no single pathway for any single industrial subsector. Competition across different possible pathways will be essential to industrial decarbonization success. Section 3 provides an overview of the “rest of industry” subsectors and a high-level overview of net-zero barriers, challenges, pathways, and technologies. IEDO will continue to consider net-zero pathways and modeling for these rest of industry subsectors. Additional details will be made available in the future on the IEDO website.
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This report is the ninth revision of a continuous-improvement, scenario-based study on program benefits from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office. With each revision of the study, Argonne made improvements to the assumptions, control strategies at the vehicle level, methodologies, powertrain selections, and the number of vehicles analyzed. In 2019, separate reports were published on the analysis of light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles. From 2020 onwards, summaries for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles are consolidated into one report. The first part of the report covers the impact of technology progress on light-duty vehicles and the second part of the report is devoted to the technology progress assumed for medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
Producing a valuable chemical product through diversion of wet wastes can simultaneously resolve the problems associated with increasing wastes and greenhouse gas emissions from conventional chemical production processes. In this work, we investigated the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, water, and fossil-fuel consumption for waste-derived polylactic acids (PLA) from three different waste feedstocks, namely wastewater sludge, food waste, and swine manure, using the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model. The decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based resins with the waste-derived polymer was also investigated. The results show that swine manure-to-PLA pathway was the least carbon intensive (—1.4 kgCO 2 e/kg) among the three waste-to-PLA pathways on a cradle-to-grave basis, followed by the food waste case (—1.3 kgCO 2 e/kg) and then by the wastewater sludge case (0.6 kgCO 2 e/kg). In the baseline scenario, all three waste-to-PLA pathways were less carbon intensive than both fossil-based PET and HDPE on a cradle-to-grave basis: 66% (vs. PET) and 56% (vs. HDPE), 171 and 192%, 181 and 205% reduction in GHG emissions for wastewater sludge-, food waste-, and swine manure-to-PLA pathway, respectively. For all sensitivity cases investigated, the food waste- and swine manure-to-PLA pathways were significantly less carbon intensive than their fossil-counterparts. In terms of the annual decarbonization potential of replacing fossil-based PET or HDPE, the wastewater sludge- and food waste-pathway showed higher mitigation potential than the swine manure-pathway: i) 18–28 kilotons CO 2 e-reduction per year for wastewater sludge pathway; ii) 23–26 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for food waste pathway; and iii) about 5 kTCO 2 e-reduction/yr for swine manure pathway depending on the type of conventional resin replaced. However, given the abundant availability of the swine manure feedstocks across the United States, the decarbonization potential of swine manure-based pathway can also increase as the plant capacity or the number of plants grow.
Thermal demand for heating and cooling has been predominantly supplied by fossil fuel combustion in the United States, although low-carbon alternatives are extensively available including geothermal, solar thermal, and waste heat. Here, this study analyzed end-use energy consumption, fuel expenditure, and data center commissioned power data to geospatially characterize the U.S. low-temperature heating and cooling demand at the county level in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors and understand potential opportunities for geothermal applications. In the analysis, the regional-scale energy consumption data was incorporated with system efficiencies to address actual demand and was then disaggregated with weighting factors to the county level. The results indicated that total low-temperature heating and cooling demand is 16.7 EJ, combining heating demand of 10.8 EJ and cooling demand of 5.9 EJ. Overall, 59.9 % (10 EJ) of the low-temperature heating and cooling demand occurred in the residential sector. The heating and cooling demand visualized in maps represented that the geospatial distribution of heating and cooling demand in the residential and commercial sectors is governed by the number of housing units and climate zone designations, while heating and cooling demand in the manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors is dependent on the number and location of facilities. The results also demonstrated that geothermal heat pumps are broadly used in the residential and commercial sectors for heating and cooling in the U.S. Midwest, South, and Northeast regions but are limited in the West, implying great decarbonization potential in the future.
The report discusses the potential for implementing Integrated Energy Systems (IES) using advanced nuclear reactors to provide thermal and electrical energy to carbon-emitting industries while reducing their carbon footprint. Nine different industries were reviewed to determine their decarbonization potential, how nuclear power can fit in, and the carbon footprint of each. The report also identifies specific integration points and streams for most processes, including temperature and pressure requirements of integrating nuclear power with industrial processes. The report also provides insights on advanced nuclear reactors and their potential for us in IES for decarbonization. The target audience for the report is broad, but mainly addressed to the industry leads and nuclear reactor developers. The report recommends that in the short term, a few processes should be identified to continue research and investigation so that front end engineering design work can provide technical analysis for integrating nuclear heat and replacing existing carbon-emitting thermal sources. The work emphasized the significant decarbonization opportunity across each of the technologies looked at as well as how novel and useful nuclear integration is to reduce the environmental impact of these significant industries.
As the two largest emerging emitters with the highest growth in operational carbon emissions from residential buildings, the historical emission patterns and decarbonization efforts of China and India warrant further exploration. This study aims to be the first to present a carbon intensity model considering end-use performances, assessing the operational decarbonization progress of residential building in India and China over the past two decades using the newest decomposing structural decomposition approach. Results indicate (1) the annual operational carbon intensity increased by 1.4% and 2.5% in China and India, respectively, between 2000 and 2020. Household expenditure-related energy intensity and emission factors were crucial in decarbonizing residential buildings. (2) Building electrification played a significant role in decarbonizing space cooling (–87.7 in China and – 130.2 kg of carbon dioxide (kgCO 2 ) per household in India) and appliances (~ –169.7 in China and ~ –43.4 kgCO 2 per household in India). (3) China and India collectively decarbonized 1498.3 and 399.7 M-tons of CO 2 in residential building operations, respectively. In terms of decarbonization intensity, India (164.8 kgCO 2 per household) nearly caught up with China (182.5 kgCO 2 per household) in 2020 and is expected to surpass China in the upcoming years, given the country's robust annual growth rate of 7.3%. Overall, this study provides an effective data-driven tool for investigating the building decarbonization potential in China and India, and offers valuable insights for other emerging economies seeking to decarbonize residential buildings in the forthcoming COP28 1 age.
The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2- ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H2-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H2-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.
Buildings are energy-intensive and a primary source of US end-use sector carbon emissions. Although building emissions today are 25% below their 2005 peak, far deeper reductions are needed to reach the US 2050 net-zero emissions goal. However, plausible decarbonization pathways that consider both buildings and their interactions with the power grid remain poorly understood. Here, we couple detailed modeling of building energy use and the grid to quantify building decarbonization potential and associated grid impacts. We find up to a 91% reduction in building CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels by 2050 using a portfolio of building efficiency, demand flexibility, and electrification measures alongside rapid grid decarbonization. Building efficiency and flexibility could generate up to $107 billion in annual power system cost savings by 2050, offsetting over a third of the incremental cost of full grid decarbonization. Our results underscore multiple benefits of demand-side solutions for deep decarbonization of US buildings.
Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors. In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs. We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.
We analyze the decarbonization potential of medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) across multiple vehicle classes and market segments. We evaluate the timeframe in which zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could achieve cost parity with conventional diesel vehicles and the implications for energy and emissions. Our results show that ZEVs can achieve cost parity with conventional vehicles by 2035 across the majority of vehicle classes and market segments. Emissions reductions range from 27% to 77% by 2050 relative to 2019 across multiple fuel cost and technology progress sensitivities. Multiple technology pathways are viable for decarbonization, including battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles. This presentation is based on previous work published by NREL: Ledna, C., Muratori, M., Yip, A., Jadun, P., and Hoehne, C. 2022. Decarbonizing Medium & Heavy-Duty On-Road Vehicles: Zero-Emission Vehicles Cost Analysis. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf.
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is an important pathway for meeting climate mitigation goals. While the economic viability of CCUS is well understood, previous studies do not evaluate the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Permian Basin specifically regarding the new Section 45Q tax credits. We developed a technoeconomic analysis method, evaluated the economic feasibility of CCS at the acid gas injection (AGI) wells, and assessed the implication of Section 45Q tax credits for CCS at the AGIs. We find that the compressors, well depth, and the permit and monitoring costs drive the facility costs. Compressors are the predominant contributors to capital and operating expenditure driving the levelized cost of CO 2 storage. Strategic cost reduction measures identified include 1) sourcing of low-cost electricity and 2) optimizing operational efficiency in well operations. In evaluating the impact of the tax credits on CCS projects, facility scale proved decisive. We found that facilities with an annual injection rate exceeding 10,000 MT storage capacity demonstrate economic viability contingent upon the procurement of inputs at the least cost. The new construction of AGI wells were found to be economically viable at a storage capacity of 100,000 MT. The basin is heavily focused on CCUS (tax credit – $\$$65/MT CO 2 ), which overshadows CCS ($\$$85/MT CO 2 ) opportunities. Balancing the dual objectives of CCS and CCUS requires planning and coordination for optimal resource and pore space utilization to attain the basin's decarbonization potential. We also found that CCS on AGI is a lower cost CCS option as compared to CCS on other industries.
On-site conversion of organic waste into biogas to satisfy consumer energy demand has the potential to realize energy equality and mitigate climate change reliably. However, existing methods ignore either real-time full supply or methane escape when supply and demand are mismatched. Here, we show an improved design of community biogas production and distribution system to overcome these and achieve full co-benefits in developing economies. We take five existing systems as empirical examples. Mechanisms of synergistic adjusting out-of-step biogas flow rates on both the plant-side and user-side are defined to obtain consumption-to-production ratios of close to 1, such that biogas demand of rural inhabitants can be met. Furthermore, carbon mitigation and its viability under universal prevailing climates are illustrated. Coupled with manure management optimization, Chinese national deployment of the proposed system would contribute a 3.77% reduction towards meeting its global 1.5 °C target. Additionally, fulfilling others’ energy demands has considerable decarbonization potential.
The intermittency of carbon-free renewables and the demand changes associated with the widespread push for electrifying the transportation and building sectors provides an opportunity for buildings to go beyond energy efficiency and push towards providing demand flexibility to the electricity grid. The duality of energy efficiency and demand flexibility is necessary for success in a sustainable and reliable energy transition. Current building energy benchmarking models are limited in their ability to integrate concepts of demand flexibility and/or utilize granular smart meter data. Thus, current benchmarking methods are focused annual energy usage and fail to incorporate how the time of use of energy consumption impacts emissions in a quickly changing energy grid. Without a more comprehensive view of energy usage and associated real-time emissions, current benchmarking methods are unlikely to realize the full decarbonization potential of buildings. New emerging data streams provide an opportunity to develop a new generation of benchmarking energy models that embed dimensions of energy efficiency, grid interactivity, and demand flexibility into their analysis. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for embedding grid interactivity and demand flexibility into building benchmarking models that utilizes emerging building and time-series electricity data streams. We first engineer features to produce a mix-type dataset that encompasses many attributes of grid-interactive and efficient buildings, and then we apply K-medoids using Gower's Distance to produce peer-group clusters. We apply the method to a case study of 306 primary and secondary schools in southern California, USA. The results show that the method effectively clusters buildings by attributes of demand flexibility and energy efficiency. The clustering results reveal patterns in inefficient building operations and demand inflexibility at the building peer group level. In conclusion, the interpretation of clusters can serve as an integrated energy efficiency and demand flexibility benchmarking model and inform performance-specific policy targeting for buildings that go beyond traditional efficiency measures.