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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission factors: A comprehensive analysis of switchgrass‐based biofuel production

Abstract This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass‐based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases—US lifecycle inventory (USLCI) database, GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI. The convergence of results across our previous study, static calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations enhances the credibility of estimated GWI values. Static calculations, validated by Monte Carlo simulations, offer reasonable central tendencies, providing a robust foundation for policy considerations. However, the wider range observed in Monte Carlo simulations underscores the importance of potential variations and uncertainties in real‐world applications. Sensitivity analyses identify biofuel yield, GHG emissions of electricity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) change as pivotal parameters influencing GWI. Decreasing uncertainties in GWI may be achieved by making greater efforts to acquire more precise data on these parameters. Our study emphasizes the significance of considering diverse GHG factors and databases in GWI assessments and stresses the need for accurate electricity fuel mixes, crucial information for refining GWI assessments and informing strategies for sustainable biofuel production.

Kim, Seungdo↗

Projection-Based Model Reduction for Coupled Conduction—Enclosure Radiation Systems

We report a projection-based reduced order model (pROM) methodology has been developed for transient heat transfer problems involving coupled conduction and enclosure radiation. The approach was demonstrated on two test problems of varying complexity. The reduced order models demonstrated substantial speedups (up to 185×) relative to the full order model with good accuracy (less than 3% L ∞ error). An attractive feature of pROMs is that there is a natural error indicator for the ROM solution: the final residual norm at each time-step of the converged ROM solution. Using example test cases, we discuss how to interpret this error indicator to assess the accuracy of the ROM solution. The approach shows promise for many-query applications, such as uncertainty quantification and optimization. The reduced computational cost of the ROM relative to the full-order model (FOM) can enable the analysis of larger and more complex systems as well as the exploration of larger parameter spaces.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SU-E-T-221: Computational Evaluation of Proton Induced Gain in a Portable Faraday Cup

Purpose: The design of a new Portable Faraday Cup (PFC) used to calibrate proton accelerators was evaluated for energies between 50 and 220 MeV. Monte Carlo simulations performed in Geant4–10.0 were used to evaluate experimental results and reduce the relative detector error for this vacuum-less and low mass system, and invalidate current MCNP releases. Methods: The detector construction consisted of a copper conductor coated with an insulator and grounded with silver. Monte Carlo calculations in Geant4 were used to determine the net charge per proton input (gain) as a function of insulator thickness and beam energy. Kapton was chosen as the insulating material and was designed to capture backscattered electrons. Charge displacement from/into Kapton was assumed to follow a linear proportionality to the origin/terminus depth toward the outer ground layer. Kapton thicknesses ranged from 0 to 200 microns, proton energies were set to match empirical studies ranging from 70 to 250 MeV. Each setup was averaged over 1 million events using the FTFP-BERT 2.0 physics list. Results: With increasing proton energy, the gain of Cu+KA gradually converges to the limit of pure copper, with relative error between 1.52% and 0.72%. The Ag layer created a more diverging behavior, accelerating the flux of negative charge into the device and increasing relative error when compared to pure copper from 1.21% to 1.63%. Conclusion: Gain vs. beam energy signatures were acquired for each device. Further analysis reveals proportionality between insulator thickness and measured gain, albeit an inverse proportionality between beam energy and in-flux of electrons. Increased silver grounding layer thickness also decreases gain, though the relative error expands with beam energy, contrary to the Kapton layer.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Heavy Rainfall Mechanism Revealed by a Terrain-Resolving 4DVar Data Assimilation System—A Case Study

In this study, a newly developed terrain-resolving four-dimensional variational (4DVar)-based data assimilation system, Immersed Boundary Method_Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (IBM_VDRAS), is applied to investigate the mechanisms leading to a heavy precipitation event that occurred in Taiwan during the Southwesterly Monsoon Experiment (SoWMEX) conducted in 2008. The multivariate analyses using IBM_VDRAS and surface observations reveal that the warm and moist southwesterly flow from the ocean decelerates after making landfall, forming a surface convergence zone along the coast, which is further strengthened during the passage of a prefrontal rainband. The flow ascends as it advances inland until reaching the mountains, producing persistent precipitation and the enhancement of evaporative cooling as well as a widespread high pressure zone. A very shallow (<0.4 km) layer of offshore flow can be identified over the southwestern plain, which helps to generate a quasi-stationary convergence zone near the coast. Furthermore, sensitivity studies are carried out to quantify the relative importance of the contributions made by topographic blockage, evaporative cooling, and their nonlinear interaction, to the evolution of this type of convective system. The influence of the topography is identified as the dominant factor in modulating the flow structure of the rainfall system. However, it is the nonlinear interaction between terrain and evaporation that determines the distribution of the temperature and pressure fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A theoretical method for the analysis and design of axisymmetric bodies

A theoretical method is presented for the computation of the flow field about an axisymmetric body operating in a viscous, incompressible fluid. A potential flow method was used to determine the inviscid flow field and to yield the boundary conditions for the boundary layer solutions. Boundary layer effects in the forces of displacement thickness and empirically modeled separation streamlines are accounted for in subsequent potential flow solutions. This procedure is repeated until the solutions converge. An empirical method was used to determine base drag allowing configuration drag to be computed.

Beatty, T. D.↗

Nonlinear finite-element analysis of laminated composite shells

Two aspects of the geometrically nonlinear analysis of laminated composite shells are considered in this paper. The first pertains to the simplifications and computational advantages resulting from the use of group-theoretic methods in conjunction with computerized symbolic (algebraic) manipulation in the element development. The second aspect pertains to the combined effects of shear deformation and nonlinearity on the accuracy and convergence of two-dimensional, shear-flexible stiffness finite element models.

Noor, A. K.↗

Free-wake analysis of a rotor in hover

A numerical method based on the axisymmetric, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations is combined with a lifting surface code to predict the vortex wake of hovering rotors. The lifting surface code, AMI Hover, is used to obtain the circulation distribution on the blade. This circulation distribution is fed into the Navier-Stokes code to compute the vortex wake under this specified circulation distribution. An iteration approach is used between these two codes to converge the circulation distribution and the shape of the vortex wake. A relaxation scheme is developed to resolve the instability encountered among the tip vortices. A reconcentration scheme is used to solve the diffusion problem due to the strong artificial viscosity. The results from the present method are compared with experimental data obtained by smoke-flow visualization and hot-wire measurements for several rotor blade configurations. The comparisons show that the present method is able to predict the complex wake system shed by a hovering rotor.

Chen, C. S.↗

Design of a blade-stiffened composite panel with a hole

A procedure is developed analytically to design and produce an optimized stiffened panel with a centrally located hole. The PASCO panel-buckling analysis and sizing code is employed with the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL) code for finite-element analysis to optimize the design variables. Important design considerations are stiffener height and ply thicknesses in the skin and the stiffener laminates. The EAL code calculates the maximum strains around the hole boundary, and the resulting constraints are combined with the buckling constraint developed by the PASCO code. Cooptimization of the two codes is effected until convergence on the optimal solution is achieved. Results of the analytical procedure are experimentally verified by applying a compressive end-load to graphite-fiber laminated plates with center holes. The experimental results support the analytical procedure, and it is found that for the same weight, the soft-skin designs tested are found to have the best tolerance characteristics and resistance to failure.

Nagendra, S.↗

Mechanisms for Diurnal Variability of Global Tropical Rainfall Observed from TRMM

The behavior and various controls of diurnal variability in tropical-subtropical rainfall are investigated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation measurements retrieved from: (1) TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), (2) Precipitation Radar (PR), and (3) TMI/PR Combined, standard level 2 algorithms for the 1998 annual cycle. Results show that the diurnal variability characteristics of precipitation are consistent for all three algorithms, providing assurance that TRMM retrievals are providing consistent estimates of rainfall variability. As anticipated, most ocean areas exhibit more rainfall at night, while over most land areas rainfall peaks during daytime ,however, various important exceptions are found. The dominant feature of the oceanic diurnal cycle is a rainfall maximum in late-evening/early-morning (LE-EM) hours, while over land the dominant maximum occurs in the mid- to late-afternoon (MLA). In conjunction with these maxima are pronounced seasonal variations of the diurnal amplitudes. Amplitude analysis shows that the diurnal pattern and its seasonal evolution are closely related to the rainfall accumulation pattern and its seasonal evolution. In addition, the horizontal distribution of diurnal variability indicates that for oceanic rainfall there is a secondary MLA maximum, co-existing with the LE-EM maximum, at latitudes dominated by large scale convergence and deep convection. Analogously, there is a preponderance for an LE-EM maximum over land, co-existing with the stronger MLA maximum, although it is not evident that this secondary continental feature is closely associated with the large scale circulation. The ocean results clearly indicate that rainfall diurnal variability associated with large scale convection is an integral part of the atmospheric general circulation.

Yang, Song↗

Numerical Uncertainty Quantification for Radiation Analysis Tools

Recently a new emphasis has been placed on engineering applications of space radiation analyses and thus a systematic effort of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification (VV&UQ) of the tools commonly used for radiation analysis for vehicle design and mission planning has begun. There are two sources of uncertainty in geometric discretization addressed in this paper that need to be quantified in order to understand the total uncertainty in estimating space radiation exposures. One source of uncertainty is in ray tracing, as the number of rays increase the associated uncertainty decreases, but the computational expense increases. Thus, a cost benefit analysis optimizing computational time versus uncertainty is needed and is addressed in this paper. The second source of uncertainty results from the interpolation over the dose vs. depth curves that is needed to determine the radiation exposure. The question, then, is what is the number of thicknesses that is needed to get an accurate result. So convergence testing is performed to quantify the uncertainty associated with interpolating over different shield thickness spatial grids.

Anderson, Brooke↗

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe in a High-Temperature Flow

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media to demonstrate the capabilities in a number of regressing environments. In the present work, sensors were installed in the eroding/regressing throat region of a converging-diverging flow, with the working gas heated to high temperatures by means of a high-pressure arc discharge at steady-state discharge power levels up to 500 kW. The amount of regression observed in each material sample was quantified using a later profilometer, which was compared to the in-situ erosion measurements to demonstrate the efficacy of the measurement technique in very harsh, high-temperature environments.

Korman, Valentin↗

Variance Decomposition of MEDLI2 Reconstructed Heating Using Neural Networks

The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.

Hannah Alpert↗

Efficiency of unconstrained minimization techniques in nonlinear analysis

Unconstrained minimization algorithms have been critically evaluated for their effectiveness in solving structural problems involving geometric and material nonlinearities. The algorithms have been categorized as being zeroth, first, or second order depending upon the highest derivative of the function required by the algorithm. The sensitivity of these algorithms to the accuracy of derivatives clearly suggests using analytically derived gradients instead of finite difference approximations. The use of analytic gradients results in better control of the number of minimizations required for convergence to the exact solution.

Kamat, M. P.↗

Analysis of a 10 megawatt space-based solar-pumped neodymium laser system

A ten megawatt solar-pumped continuous liquid laser system for space applications is examined. It is found that a single inflatable mirror of 434 m diameter used in conjunction with a conical secondary concentrator is sufficient to side pump a liquid neodymium lasant in an annular tube of 6 m length and 1 m outer and 0.8 m inner diameter. About one fourth of intercepted radiation converging on the laser tube is absorbed and one fifth of this radiation is effective in populating the upper levels. The liquid lasant is flowed through the annular laser cavity at 1.9 m/s and is cooled via a heat exchanger and a large radiator surface comparable in size to the concentrating mirror. The power density of incident light within the lasant of approximately 68 watt/cu cm required for cw operation is exceeded in the present annular configuration. Total system weight corresponds to 20,500 kg and is thus capable of being transported to near Earth orbit by a single shuttle flight.

Kurweg, U. H.↗

A 1D analysis of two high order MOC methods

The work presented here provides two different methods for evaluating angular fluxes along long characteristics. One is based off a projection of the 1D transport equation onto a complete set of Legendre polynomials, while the other uses the 1D integral transport equation to evaluate the angular flux values at specific points along each track passing through a cell. The Moment Long Characteristic (M-LC) method is shown to provide 2(P+1) spatial convergence and significant gains in accuracy with the addition of only a few spatial degrees of freedom. The M-LC method, though, is shown to be ill-conditioned at very high order and for optically thin geometries. The Point Long Characteristic (P-LC) method, while less accurate, significantly improves stability to problems with optically thin cells. The P-LC method is also more flexible, allowing for extra angular flux evaluations along a given track to give a more accurate representation of the shape along each track. This is at the expense of increasing the degrees of freedom of the system, though, and requires an increase in memory storage. This work concludes that both may be used simultaneously within the same geometry to provide the best mix of accuracy and stability possible. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

TDCOSMO XXIII. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the doubly lensed quasar HE 1104−1805

Time-delay cosmography leverages strongly lensed quasars to measure the Universe’s current expansion rate, H 0 , independently from other methods. The latest TDCOSMO milestone measurement primarily used quadruply lensed quasars for their mass profile constraints. However, doubly lensed quasars, being more abundant and offering precise time delays, could expand the sample by a factor of 5, significantly advancing towards a 1% precision measurement of H 0 . We present the first TDCOSMO analysis of a doubly imaged source, HE 1104−1805, including the measurement of the four necessary ingredients. First, by combining 17 years of data from the SMARTS, Euler, and WFI telescopes, we measured a time delay of 176.3 +11.4 −10.3 days. Second, using MUSE data, we extracted stellar velocity dispersion measurements in three radial bins with 5% to 13% precision. Third, employing F160W HST imaging for lens modelling and marginalising over various modelling choices, we measured the Fermat potential difference between the images. Fourth, using wide-field imaging, we measured the convergence added by objects not included in the lens modelling. By combining these four ingredients, we measured the time delay distance and the angular diameter distance to the deflector, favouring a power-law mass model over a baryonic and dark matter composite model. The measurement was performed blindly to prevent experimenter bias and resulted in a Hubble constant of H 0 = +5.8 −5.0 × λ int km s −1 Mpc −1 , where λ int is the internal mass sheet degeneracy parameter. This is in agreement with the TDCOSMO-2025 milestone and its precision for λ int = 1 is comparable to that obtained with the best-observed quadruply lensed quasars (4–6%). This work is a stepping stone towards a precise measurement of H 0 using a large sample of doubly lensed quasars, supplementing the current sample. The next TDCOSMO milestone paper will include this system in its hierarchical analysis, constraining λ int and H 0 jointly with multiple lenses.

cosmological parameters↗

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗

Integration of 5G and Time Sensitive Networks in Fossil Energy Generation Systems: A Case Study

Precise timing and data transmission within stringent time constraints are critical for numerous applications, such as robotics, virtual and augmented reality, industrial automation, energy and medical business, and various other sectors. Time-sensitive networks (TSN) and fifth-generation wireless communications (5G) are crucial for industrial communications, enabling convergent communication for various services using a common network core. Applications that are time-sensitive and require deterministic communications with low latency fall into this category, such as generation plant systems. This paper presents a simulated model of 5G-TSN for a fossil power plant based on the wired network parameters implemented in situ. Metrics analysis, comparison and future work are presented. © 2024 IEEE.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗