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Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

National Cost-Effectiveness of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2022

The purpose of this analysis is to examine the cost-effectiveness of the 2022 edition of ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1, which is developed by the ASHRAE Standard Standing Project Committee (SSPC) 90.1 and is the model energy standard for all commercial buildings and multifamily residential buildings over three floors. PNNL analyzed the cost-effectiveness of changes in Standard 90.1-2022, compared to the previous 90.1-2019 edition, as applied in commercial buildings across the United States. In reviewing proposed changes to Standard 90.1, the SSPC considers the cost-effectiveness of individual changes (addenda). Due to the continuous nature of the development process, however, ASHRAE does not evaluate the entire package of addenda from one edition of the standard to the next, which is of particular interest to adopting state and local governments. Providing states with an analysis of cost-effectiveness facilitates a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts associated with updated model energy codes, informs the state decision-making process and its authorities, and ultimately encourages greater adoption of updated energy codes. This information also informs the development of future editions of Standard 90.1.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Data Centers Gap Analysis [Slides]

Data centers and other large loads are a significant driver of unprecedented, near-term demand growth in the United States. Power system planners, utilities, regulators, and other stakeholders are grappling with how to integrate data centers on the system without comprising reliability, resiliency, and energy affordability. NLR is pursuing work to develop a siting and decision-making tool that would draw on power systems modeling expertise to achieve granular representation of trade-offs involved in data center sitting and development. This slide deck supports the same workstream by reviewing the literature to identify mitigation options to facilitate near-term integration of large loads and by presenting options for pursuing data development and/or modeling projects to improve representation of siting options.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Targeted Attack For Enhancing Resiliency of Intelligent Intrusion Detection Modules in Energy Cyber Physical Systems

Abstract— Secure high-speed communication is required to ensure proper operation of complex power grid systems and prevent malicious tampering activities. In this paper, artificial neural networks with temporal dependency are introduced for false data identification and mitigation for broadcasted IEC 61850 SMV messages. The fast responses of such intelligent modules in intrusion detection make them suitable for time- critical applications, such as protection. However, care must be taken in selecting the appropriate intelligence model and decision criteria. As such, this paper presents a customizable malware script to sniff and manipulate SMV messages and demonstrates the ability of the malware to trigger false positives in the neural network’s response. The malware developed is intended to be as a vaccine to harden the intrusion detection system against data manipulation attacks by enhancing the neural network’s ability to learn and adapt to these attacks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Agricultural demand response for decarbonizing the electricity grid

Historically, the focus of the agricultural industry has been increasing profit through maximizing crop yield. Costs for energy and water are small compared to equipment and personnel, and are thus often overlooked. However, energy costs for irrigation are increasing and could be exacerbated with declining water levels in many Western states. This trend has motivated many farmers to explore sustainable irrigation water and energy management practices. Additionally, much of this new focus has been directed towards the adoption of new agricultural technologies with a misplaced assumption that technology alone will inherently bring all the benefits. On one hand, farms are going through a paradigm shift, and are turning into net electricity generators, and on the other, higher penetration of intermittent renewable sources into the electricity grid, require dynamic loads to help the grid balance its intra-hour variability and short duration ramps. The agricultural industry could be restructured to utilize larger amounts of renewable energy such as wind and solar and provide a great deal of flexibility to the grid. As emerging producers of clean energy, farmers are required to learn and speak the complex language of the electricity grid in order to monetize their energy generation while making the renewable electricity grid more resilient and reliable. In this paper, we develop a foundational approach for understanding and connecting three important concepts that can help the agricultural industry during this critical transition period. Those three concepts are: (a) current and future needs of the electricity grid, (b) available electricity market mechanisms through which farms can provide services to the grid, and (c) understanding electricity consuming/generating equipment on farms. Finally, defining these concepts and condensing them into a standardized framework, can remove a significant barrier for enabling farms to provide services to the electricity grid while improving their bottom line.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predicting future uncertainty constraints on global warming projections

Projections of global mean temperature changes (ΔT) in the future are associated with intrinsic uncertainties. Much climate policy discourse has been guided by "current knowledge" of the ΔTs uncertainty, ignoring the likely future reductions of the uncertainty, because a mechanism for predicting these reductions is lacking. By using simulations of Global Climate Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble as pseudo past and future observations, we estimate how fast and in what way the uncertainties of ΔT can decline when the current observation network of surface air temperature is maintained. At least in the world of pseudo observations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we can drastically reduce more than 50% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2040 s by 2029, and more than 60% of the ΔTs uncertainty in the 2090 s by 2049. Under the highest forcing scenario of RCPs, we can predict the true timing of passing the 2°C (3°C) warming threshold 20 (30) years in advance with errors less than 10 years. These results demonstrate potential for sequential decision-making strategies to take advantage of future progress in understanding of anthropogenic climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drive Electric Vermont Case Study

Currently in the United States, the heavy majority of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales have been in highly conducive, selected, metropolitan areas; opposed to more broad distribution across the country. The U.S. Department of Energy’s EV Everywhere Grand Challenge is looking carefully at the barriers and opportunities that exist to enable small and midsize communities to partake in the PEV market and benefit from the economic and environmental advantages of PEVs. In order to gain insight into these challenges and barriers, DOE selected a success story (i.e., Drive Electric Vermont) as the subject of this case study, as the state of Vermont is tied with Detroit, Michigan in having the highest percentage of 2014 (most recent complete data) PEV registrations for cold weather U.S. cities and has seen more than a sixfold increase in charging stations over the last three years. The overall objective of this case study was to use the lessons learned from Drive Electric Vermont to determine what activities are most effective at encouraging acquisitions of PEVs and deployment of charging infrastructure in small to midsize communities, prioritizing and sequencing their implementation, identifying robust means for extrapolation, and applying this understanding to other small to midsize communities across the nation. The Drive Electric Vermont Program was formed in 2012 with a goal of increasing the use of electrified transportation in Vermont through policy development, education and outreach, and infrastructure development. The Drive Electric Vermont Program can be broadly broken into four components: (1) strategic planning/leadership, (2) stakeholder/partnership development, (3) education and outreach, and (4) incentives. The early phases of the program focused heavily on strategic planning, and stakeholder and partnership development, followed by a transition to education and outreach activities, charging infrastructure development, and grant and incentive programs that support charging infrastructure deployment and PEV purchases. Future plans include an additional round of consumer/dealer PEV incentives, continuation of the marketing campaign, and utilization of consumer surveys to develop new campaign themes and to optimize information distribution channels. In Vermont, the number of PEVs grew from 88 in July 2012 to 1,113 in January 2016, with a high percentage of the PEVs being plug-in hybrids (i.e., 865) versus all electric vehicles (i.e., 248). The most popular PEVs are Toyota’s Prius Plug-in and Ford’s C-Max Energi, which make up a combined 48% of the total PEV ownership in the state. The PEVs are predominantly clustered in four counties: Lamoille, Caledonia, Washington, and Chittenden. There is no evident correlation between community size and PEV penetration; however, over 70% of PEV owners are in communities of 1,000 to 10,000 people. On the other hand, there is a close correlation between where PEVs are registered and where they publically charge. The number of PEV charging stations in Vermont grew from 17 in January 2013 to 111 in January 2016, at a variety of charging venues, including retail, parking (short term and long term), workplace, dealerships, hotels, education, leisure, and hospitals. The vast majority of the charging venues contain Level 2 electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) solely or combined with Level 1 EVSE or direct current fast charging. The average power transferred per charging event for communities across Vermont ranged from 4.8 to 13.8 kWh for direct current fast charging and 1.0 to 11.9 kWh for and Level 2 EVSE. Over half the charging locations offer free charging. For those that do require payment, different pricing models are employed, including monthly memberships, hourly payment (where there is often a higher fee for the first hour followed by a lower hourly fee for the remaining hours), and energy use based on kWh drawn from the EVSE. There is no correlation between pricing models and community size and region, the strongest correlation is by network provider. Charging events across Vermont generally correlate with east-west bands of chargers (Figure ES-1) running from Burlington to Montpelier and in the area of Rutland.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

County Economic Impact Index: Measuring the ongoing economic effects of COVID-19

The County Economic Impact Index (CEII) estimates the change in overall county-level economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic relative to January 2020. It shows which counties may be more susceptible to large reductions in economic activity compared to normal conditions by looking at which industries make up each county’s economy and then tracking monthly changes in industry employment at the national level. Economic activity in the CEII is measured by the total value added of all industries within the county. Counties with economic activities dominated by industries experiencing rising unemployment can expect larger direct impacts to their local economies, particularly if the industries account for a large portion of the economic output of that county. Results are available for all U.S. counties, as well as the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico municipios, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

Connley, Warren↗

Science Enabling Roles and Services of SPDF

The current Heliophysics Science Data Management Policy defines the roles of the Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) project as a heliophysics active Final Archive, a focus for critical data infrastructure services and a center of excellence for data and ancillary information services. This presentation will highlight some of our current activities and our understanding of why and how our services are useful to researchers, as well as SPDF's programmatic emphasis in the coming year. We will discuss how. in cooperation with the Heliophysics Virtual discipline Observatories (VxOs), we are working closely with the RBSP and MMS mission teams to support their decisions to use CDF as a primary format for their public data products, to leverage the ongoing data flows and capabilities of CDAWeb (directly and through external clients such as Autoplot) to serve their data in a multi-mission context and to use SSCWeb to assist community science planning and analysis. Among other current activities, we will also discuss and demonstrate our continuing effort to make the Virtual Space Physics Observatory (VSPO) service comprehensive in all significant and NASA relevant heliophysics data. The OMNI and OMNI High Resolution datasets remain current and heavily cited in publications. We are expanding our FTP file services to include online archived non-CDF data from all active missions, which is a re-hosting of this function from NSSDC's FTP site. We have extended the definitions of time in CDF to unambiguously and consistently handle leap seconds. We are improving SSCWeb for much faster per1ormance, more capabilities and a web services inter1ace to Query functionality. We will also review how CDAWeb data can be easily accessed within IDL and new features in CDAWeb.

McGuire, Robert E.↗

Circular Economy for Energy Materials: Designing to Reduce, Reuse, and Upcycle for a More Sustainable Planet

Our global economy is on the cusp of a dramatic transformation away from a traditional linear approach - making, using, and landfill disposing of goods - to a more circular one where end of life is considered at the onset and the concepts of reducing, reusing, and chemically recycling or upcycling of goods becomes the new norm. Conventional/mechanical recycling is applicable to some materials but is underused and ineffective for a true circular economy vision. This vision ensures raw materials are used once to produce a product; and, at end of life, the product is chemically recycled back to its core building blocks to enable an infinite loop of product manufacture, use, deconstruction, and remanufacture.

CEEM↗

Further understanding “severe” climate risk

What makes one climate risk more “severe” or “dangerous” than others? Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed. The paper also takes stock of issues related to the spatial scale(s) of and the evidence base for severe climate risks. It lands on four intertwined research directions across geographies, sectors and populations, that are hypothesized to play a critical role in the coming decade, from feeding the next IPCC cycle to more broadly supporting the development of anticipatory adaptation policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Innovation

Innovation is a highly overused buzzword in government offices and corporate America. Just like leadership, innovation is something that organizations realize they need, but often are frustrated in their efforts to achieve. Making matters worse, the definition of innovation changes with the user and the context. Simply put, innovation is change and change for any organization is difficult. This study examines the topic of innovation and pays special attention to what works, what does not work, and the basic principles governing how one might go about innovating. As leadership is critical to any successful innovation effort, special attention is given to leading change and leading innovation. ''The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.'' - George Bernard Shaw

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Navigating Options for Transportation Electrification and Solar Charging: Steps and Lessons Learned in Montana Communities

This document is intended to assist communities who are considering investing in electric transportation. It can assist communities engage stakeholders, prioritize community goals, assess electric transportation options, and navigate complex decisions about deploying zero emission electric transportation in their community. It covers technological, economic and environmental aspects of the transition to electric vehicles (EV), and highlights the specific considerations related to the deployment of renewable energy technologies (e.g., distributed solar) in combination with EV supply equipment (EVSE, e.g., charging stations). There are many important decisions to make and questions for communities to ask themselves as they consider electric vehicle types, charging infrastructure, and electricity generation options. This guide will help communities assess: (1) Which stage in the decision-making process they are in with respect to EV deployment; (2) Questions they can explore to guide their decisions about EV deployment; (3) How to engage key stakeholders on EV deployment options; (4) Tradeoffs and benefits of various electric transportation options and; (5) Synergies of pairing electric vehicle charging and renewable energy generation technologies. The analysis and lessons learned presented in this roadmap are intended to serve as a template and guide for similarly situated communities across the country who want to prepare for and play a role in the electrified transportation future.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

New Energy Infrastructure Outlook: Data as of December 31, 2024 [Slides]

This report provides a perspective on energy infrastructure under development in the continental U.S. as of the end of 2024, focusing on those making significant progress toward achieving commercial operation. Infrastructures covered in this report include power plants, electric transmission, natural gas pipelines and liquefied natural gas facilities. Additionally, this report includes a section on stockpiled volumes of coal, natural gas, and petroleum.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Scientific Solutions to Nuclear Waste Environmental Challenges

The Hidden Cost of Nuclear Weapons The Cold War arms race drove an intense plutonium production program in the U.S. This campaign produced approximately 100 tons of plutonium over 40 years. The epicenter of plutonium production in the United States was the Hanford site, a 586 square mile reservation owned by the Department of Energy and located on the Colombia River in Southeastern Washington. Plutonium synthesis relied on nuclear reactors to convert uranium to plutonium within the reactor fuel rods. After a sufficient amount of conversion occurred, the rods were removed from the reactor and allowed to cool. They were then dissolved in an acid bath and chemically processed to separate and purify plutonium from the rest of the constituents in the used reactor fuel. The acidic waste was then neutralized using sodium hydroxide and the resulting mixture of liquids and precipitates (small insoluble particles) was stored in huge underground waste tanks. The byproducts of the U.S. plutonium production campaign include over 53 million gallons of high-level radioactive waste stored in 177 large underground tanks at Hanford and another 34 million gallons stored at the Savannah River Site in South Carolina. This legacy nuclear waste represents one of the largest environmental clean-up challenges facing the world today. The nuclear waste in the Hanford tanks is a mixture of liquids and precipitates that have settled into sludge. Some of these tanks are now over 60 years old and a small number of them are leaking radioactive waste into the ground and contaminating the environment. The solution to this nuclear waste challenge is to convert the mixture of solids and liquids into a durable material that won't disperse into the environment and create hazards to the biosphere. What makes this difficult is the fact that the radioactive half-lives of some of the radionuclides in the waste are thousands to millions of years long. (The half-life of a radioactive substance is the amount of time it takes for one-half of the material to undergo radioactive decay.) In general, the ideal material would need to be durable for approximately 10 half-lives to allow the activity to decay to negligible levels. However, the potential health effects of each radionuclide vary depending on what type of radiation is emitted, the energy of that emission, and the susceptibility for the human body to accumulate and concentrate that particular element. Consequently, actual standards tend to be based on limiting the dose (energy deposited per unit mass) that is introduced into the environment. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has the responsibility to establish standards for nuclear waste disposal to protect the health and safety of the public. For example, the Energy Policy Act of 1992 directed the EPA to establish radiation protection standards for the Yucca Mountain geologic repository for nuclear wastes. The standards for Yucca Mountain were promulgated in 2008, and limit the dose to 15 millirem per year for the first 10,000 years, and 100 milirem per year between 10,000 years and 1 million years (40 CFR Part 197; http://www.epa.gov/radiation/yucca/2008factsheet.html). So, the challenge is two-fold: (1) develop a material (a waste form) that is capable of immobilizing the waste over geologic time scales, and (2) develop a process to convert the radioactive sludge in the tanks into this durable waste form material. Glass: Hard, durable, inert, and with infinite chemical versatility Molten glass is a powerful solvent liquid, which can be designed to dissolve almost anything. When solidified, it can be one of the most chemically inert substances known to man. Nature's most famous analogue to glass is obsidian, a vitreous product of volcanic activity; formations over 17 million years old have been found. Archaeologists have found man-made glass specimens that are five thousand years old.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Using Mapping Tools to Prioritize Electric Vehicle Charger Benefits to Underserved Communities

Mapping tools can play an important role in incorporating equity into planning, implementing, and evaluating investments in electric vehicle (EV) charging stations, also referred to as EV chargers or electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE). Federal, state, and local organizations need methodologies for using mapping tools as they pursue equity-focused goals to ensure that the benefits of investments in EV chargers flow to energy and environmental justice (EEJ) underserved communities. This report provides examples of how to apply mapping tools to identify priority locations for installing EV chargers that may benefit EEJ underserved communities through four EV charger planning approaches: corridor charging, community charging, fleet electrification, and diversity in STEM and workforce development. It also explores various methodologies for calculating low-public EVSE density. Ensuring that the benefits of EV charger investments flow to underserved communities involves prioritizing locally identified needs and incorporating community input when choosing charging station locations. Installing EV chargers in a census tract identified as an EEJ underserved community does not inherently mean that those EV chargers provide benefits to residents of that community. In addition, representatives of historically disadvantaged communities or environmental justice communities have concerns that installing EV chargers in their communities could potentially exacerbate or propagate existing inequities. While the methodologies described in this report may help identify priority census tracts for equity-focused EV charger investment, additional community engagement and site evaluation are necessary to determine whether EV chargers are accessible, affordable, and convenient to EEJ underserved community residents and what benefits the local community is looking to realize with EV charger installations. This report is the culmination of many discussions with project leaders from DOE-funded projects deploying EV chargers in communities across the nation, organizations representing EEJ underserved communities, state agencies developing EV investment plans, utilities making major EV investments, and DOE national laboratory experts working in transportation electrification. The authors distributed a draft report for peer review, and reviewer comments are summarized in this report. These methodologies are likely to evolve as more EV charger funding programs are implemented and more real-world data is available to measure the effectiveness of strategies for incorporating equity in EV charger deployment projects. Continued efforts to document best practices and critically evaluate whether equity-focused programs achieve their goals are needed as transportation electrification proceeds at the local, regional, and national levels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2011 NASA Range Safety Annual Report

Welcome to the 2011 edition of the NASA Range Safety Annual Report. Funded by NASA Headquarters, this report provides a NASA Range Safety overview for current and potential range users. As is typical with odd year editions, this is an abbreviated Range Safety Annual Report providing updates and links to full articles from the previous year's report. It also provides more complete articles covering new subject areas, summaries of various NASA Range Safety Program activities conducted during the past year, and information on several projects that may have a profound impact on the way business will be done in the future. Specific topics discussed and updated in the 2011 NASA Range Safety Annual Report include a program overview and 2011 highlights; Range Safety Training; Range Safety Policy revision; Independent Assessments; Support to Program Operations at all ranges conducting NASA launch/flight operations; a continuing overview of emerging range safety-related technologies; and status reports from all of the NASA Centers that have Range Safety responsibilities. Every effort has been made to include the most current information available. We recommend this report be used only for guidance and that the validity and accuracy of all articles be verified for updates. Once again the web-based format was used to present the annual report. We continually receive positive feedback on the web-based edition and hope you enjoy this year's product as well. As is the case each year, contributors to this report are too numerous to mention, but we thank individuals from the NASA Centers, the Department of Defense, and civilian organizations for their contributions. In conclusion, it has been a busy and productive year. I'd like to extend a personal Thank You to everyone who contributed to make this year a successful one, and I look forward to working with all of you in the upcoming year.

Dumont, Alan G.↗