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DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Forward Modeling of Galaxy Catalogs with Normalizing Flows

Abstract Evaluating the accuracy and calibration of the redshift posteriors produced by photometric redshift (photo- z ) estimators is vital for enabling precision cosmology and extragalactic astrophysics with modern wide-field photometric surveys. Evaluating photo- z posteriors on a per-galaxy basis is difficult, however, as real galaxies have a true redshift but not a true redshift posterior. We introduce PZFlow, a Python package for the probabilistic forward modeling of galaxy catalogs with normalizing flows. For catalogs simulated with PZFlow, there is a natural notion of “true” redshift posteriors that can be used for photo- z validation. We use PZFlow to simulate a photometric galaxy catalog where each galaxy has a redshift, noisy photometry, shape information, and a true redshift posterior. We also demonstrate the use of an ensemble of normalizing flows for photo- z estimation. We discuss how PZFlow will be used to validate the photo- z estimation pipeline of the Dark Energy Science Collaboration, and the wider applicability of PZFlow for statistical modeling of any tabular data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Completed SDSS-IV Extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Baryon Acoustic Oscillations with Ly$α$ Forests

Here, we present a measurement of baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO) from Lyman-α (Lyα) absorption and quasars at an effective redshift $z = 2.33$ using the complete extended Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS). The sixteenth and final eBOSS data release (SDSS DR16) contains all data from eBOSS and its predecessor, the Baryonic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS), providing 210,005 quasars with $z_q > 2.10$ that are used to measure Lyα absorption. We measure the BAO scale both in the auto-correlation of Ly$α$ absorption and in its cross correlation with 341,468 quasars with redshift $z_q > 1.77$. Apart from the statistical gain from new quasars and deeper observations, the main improvements over previous work come from more accurate modeling of physical and instrumental correlations and the use of new sets of mock data. Combining the BAO measurement from the auto- and cross-correlation yields the constraints of the two ratios $D_H(z = 2.33)/r_d = 8.99 ± 0.19$ and $D_M(z = 2.33)/r_d = 37.5 ± 1.1$, where the error bars are statistical. These results are within $1.5σ$ of the prediction of the flat-ΛCDM cosmology of Planck (2016). The analysis code, picca, the catalog of the flux-transmission field measurements, and the $Δ\chi^2$ surfaces are publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Search for Correlations of High-energy Neutrinos Detected in IceCube with Radio-bright AGN and Gamma-Ray Emission from Blazars

The IceCube Neutrino Observatory sends realtime neutrino alerts with a high probability of being astrophysical in origin. We present a new method to correlate these events and possible candidate sources using 2089 blazars from the Fermi-LAT 4LAC-DR2 catalog and with 3413 active galactic nuclei (AGNs) from the Radio Fundamental Catalog. No statistically significant neutrino emission was found in any of the catalog searches. The result suggests that a small fraction, <1%, of the studied AGNs emit neutrinos that pass the alert criteria, and is compatible with prior evidence for neutrino emission presented by IceCube and other authors from sources such as TXS 0506 + 056 and PKS 1502 + 106. We also present cross-checks to other analyses that claim a significant correlation using similar data samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Disentangling the Distant Stellar Halo Using K Giants in DESI Year 3 Data

We present a sample of 88,959 K giants from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Milky Way Survey Year 3 data, which we use to characterize the chemo-dynamical properties of the stellar halo at Galactocentric distances of 12 to ∼100 kpc. Using HDBSCAN, we identify five prominent stellar halo substructures: Aleph, the Sagittarius stream, Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE), Cetus-Palca, and the Orphan–Chenab stream. We present the properties of each of these structures as they appear in our catalog, and examine how uncertainties on distance affect the characterization of substructure with this approach. We also examine regions associated with previously reported overdensities (such as the Virgo Overdensities and the Sagittarius spur) that we do not recover with HDBSCAN. The size and distance range of our catalog allows us to explore in detail the residual stellar halo, comprising stars that we do not associate with any substructure. We find that samples of ∼2000 outer halo stars with both highly prograde and highly retrograde angular momenta have similar metallicity distribution functions (MDFs), which do not resemble the MDFs of either GSE or Sagittarius. Both the prograde and retrograde residual halo MDFs are bimodal, with a metal-poor peak at [Fe/H] ∼ −2 and a metal-rich peak at [Fe/H] ∼ −1.3 (prograde) or −1.5 (retrograde). The MDF for lower-angular-momentum residual halo K giants does not show clear evidence for a metal-poor peak, and broadly resembles the MDF of GSE, even at much lower binding energies than GSE itself. We discuss possible interpretations of these findings for GSE accretion scenarios.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Naval Space Surveillance Center uses of time, frequency, and phase

The Naval Space Surveillance Center (NAVSPASUR) is an operational naval command that has the mission of determining the location of all manmade objects in space and transmitting information on objects of interest to the fleet. NAVSPASUR operates a 217 MHz radar fence that has 9 transmitting and receiving stations deployed in a line across southern Continental United States (CONUS). This surveillance fence provides unalerted detection of satellites overflying CONUS. NAVSPASUR also maintains a space catalog of all orbiting space objects. NAVSPASUR plays an important role as operational alternate to the primary national Space Surveillance Center (SSC) and Space Defence Operations Center (SPADOC). In executing these responsibilities, NAVSPASUR needs precise and/or standardized time and frequency in a number of applications. These include maintenance of the radar fence references to specification, and coordination with other commands and agencies for data receipt and dissemination. Precise time and frequency must be maintained within each site to enable proper operation of the interferometry phasing technique used. Precise time-of-day clocking must exist between sites for proper intersite coordination. After 'time tags' are attached to the data at the receiver sites, proper referencing and standardization are necessary at the Dahlgren, Va. operations center to ensure proper data synchronization and communications with the fleet and other agencies.

Carroll C. Hayden↗

NASA NTRS2002

Building a virtual planet

The virtual Planetary Laboratory (VPL) is a recently funded 5-yr project, which seeks toimprove our understanding of the range of plausible environments and the likely signatures for life on extrasolar terrestrial planets. To achieve these goals we are developing a suite of innovative modeling tools to simulate the environments and spectra of extrasolar planets. The core of the VPL IS a coupled radiative transfer/climate/chemistry model, which is augmented by interchangeable modules which characterize geological, exogenic, atmospheric escape, and life processes. The VPL is validated using data derived from terrestrial planets within our own solar system. The VPL will be used to explore the plausible range of atmospheric composittions and globally averaged spectra for extrasolar planets and for early Earth, and will improve our understanding of the effect of life on a planet's atmospheric spectrum and composition. The models will also be used to create a comprehensive spectral catalog to provide recommendations on the optimum wavelength range, spectral resolution, and instrument sensitivity required to characterize extrasolar terrestrial planets. Although developed by our team, the VPL is envisioned to be a comprehensive and flexible tool, which can be collaboratively used by the broader planetary science and astrobiology communities. This presentation will describe the project concept, the tasks involved, and will outline current progress to date. This work is funded by the NASA Astrobiology Institute.

astrobiology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021

The Remote Access Attack on Oldsmar Water Treatment Facility 2021 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Oldsmar cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. On 5 February 2021, an adversary gained unauthorized remote access to Bruce T. Haddock Water Treatment Plant in Oldsmar, Florida, which provides treated water to 15,000 customers. The adversary accessed the facility’s Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) workstation and human machine interface (HMI) to change the chemical concentration of sodium hydroxide, commonly referred to as lye and used to regulate acidity levels, from 100 parts per million (PPM) to 11,100 PPM. The chemical was raised to lethal levels that if ingested could lead to serious soft tissue damage, burns, or even death. The facility, however, had redundancies and alarms in place to alert personnel of dangerous chemical levels, and facility officials stated it would have taken 24 to 36 hours for the chemical changes to affect the water supply. Researchers and analysts identified six unique techniques utilized during the attack with a total of 23 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Four of the identified techniques used during the Oldsmar cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 21 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 20 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the minutes preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1987

Occultation studies of the Solar System

The planetary occultation program began at Lowell Observatory in 1973 with a worldwide campaign to observe mutual occultations and eclipses of the Galilean Satellites. Then the temperature profile of the Martian atmosphere was measured from data taken during the occultation of epsilon Geminorum, the Rings of Uranus were discovered as they occulted SAO 158687, and the dimensions of Pallas were measured when that minor planet occulted SAO 85009. In 1979 the present grant was initiated, providing funds for portable photometric instrumentation used to observe occultations by asteroids as well as by Uranus and Neptune. Software for predicting occultations of catalog stars by asteroids, planets, and comets was written in 1983. Lowell currently provides most of the available predictions for asteroid occultations. Realizing in 1983 that the lack of a high-quality astrometric telescope dedicated to occultation work was limiting progress, an 18-inch, F/8 lens was acquired and adapted to an existing mounting at Lowell. Although acquisition of the lens and implementation of the new telescope has been accomplished primarily with non-grant funds, the instrument makes a major contribution to occultation research.

Millis, Robert L.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Quantitative Morphologic Analysis of Boulder Shape and Surface Texture to Infer Environmental History: A Case Study of Rock Breakdown at the Ephrata Fan, Channeled Scabland, Washington

Boulder morphology reflects both lithology and climate and is dictated by the combined effects of erosion, transport, and weathering. At present, morphologic information at the boulder scale is underutilized as a recorder of environmental processes, partly because of the lack of a systematic quantitative parameter set for reporting and comparing data sets. We develop such a parameter set, incorporating a range of measures of boulder form and surface texture. We use standard shape metrics measured in the field and fractal and morphometric classification methods borrowed from landscape analysis and applied to laser-scanned molds. The parameter set was pilot tested on three populations of basalt boulders with distinct breakdown histories in the Channeled Scabland, Washington: (1) basalt outcrop talus; (2) flood-transported boulders recently excavated from a quarry; and (3) flood-transported boulders, extensively weathered in situ on the Ephrata Fan surface. Size and shape data were found to distinguish between flood-transported and untransported boulders. Size and edge angles (approximately 120 degrees) of flood-transported boulders suggest removal by preferential fracturing along preexisting columnar joints, and curvature data indicate rounding relative to outcrop boulders. Surface textural data show that boulders which have been exposed at the surface are significantly rougher than those buried by fan sediments. Past signatures diagnostic of flood transport still persist on surface boulders, despite ongoing overprinting by processes in the present breakdown environment through roughening and fracturing in situ. Further use of this quantitative boulder parameter set at other terrestrial and planetary sites will aid in cataloging and understanding morphologic signatures of environmental processes.

Ehlmann, Bethany L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Alcock-Paczynski Blinding Scheme for the Ly-$α$ Forest Analysis

We present and validate a blinding method for the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest analysis based on a modification of the Alcock-Paczynski test. In order to hide the background expansion history, the method employs a geometrical shift of each quasar (QSO) forest in wavelength space, once the quasar continuum has been fitted and the fluctuation field is extracted. The redshift positions for the QSO sample are also changed in a consistent manner. We show that the method remains effective when applied to real data, where contamination from metals and Lyman-$β$ is intrinsically mixed with the Lyman-$α$ forest. This limitation is primarily visible in the 1D correlation function, where other blinding strategies can mitigate the effect. To assess its effectiveness, the prescription is tested against a series of datasets of increasing complexity: from idealized low-noise mocks, to realistic DESI year one synthetic datasets, and finally to data from DESI first data release (DR1), using both the auto (Ly$α\times$Ly$α$) and cross (Ly$α\times$ QSO) correlations. We find that the method robustly shifts the BAO peak position from the 3D correlation functions to the expected value for cosmology changes of around 5% in the matter content, without altering the shape of the posteriors in the model parameters. In conclusion, this catalog-level blinding strategy is a viable method for cosmological inference with the Lyman-$α$ forest, particularly if a cross-analysis with other tracers using the same blinding strategy is pursued.

Perez-Sanchez, G. [Guanajuato U.] (ORCID:000900096↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Unified Tracer Analysis of DESI DR2 Baryon Acoustic Oscillations

We improve upon previous efforts to optimally combine overlapping galaxy samples in the DESI baryon acoustic oscillation analysis. By weighting each galaxy by its linear bias, overlapping galaxies are combined into a single, unified catalog, naturally avoiding double counting of cosmic volume and including all auto- and cross- information at the catalog level. Improvements over the previous effort include the addition of QSO out to $z=1.6$ to account for all overlapping DR2 tracers and redshift-dependent bias treatment to improve reconstruction. We report distance measurements using this unified tracer, and find them to be highly consistent with the baseline DR2 BAO analysis. We also test for tracer-dependent systematics within the DESI data, and find no evidence of tracer-dependent systematics within $0.8

Sanders, N. [Ohio U., Athens] (ORCID:0009000800202↗

NASA NTRS2017

Deep-Space Navigation Using Optical Communications Systems

Optical communication links using lasers can potentially deliver data rates much higher than those possible using radio frequencies. If optical communications equipment is going to be carried by future deep-space missions, this equipment, with some adaptations, could also be used to perform tracking for trajectory determination. A number of experiments have been performed in Earth orbit and in lunar orbit using optical data links, while other missions have demonstrated optical links over interplanetary distances. Laser ranging using corner cube retroreflectors is a well-established technique that has been used for orbit determination of Earth orbiting spacecraft, for geodesy, and for lunar research, achieving centimeter-level precisions, but it is not a practical method for deep-space distances. There are two main optical tracking types that are being considered for deep-space navigation. The first is optical astrometry of spacecraft: a telescope on the ground images the laser beam coming from a spacecraft against the star background, determining its plane-of-sky position as seen from the observatory. This type will greatly benefit from the release of the high-accuracy star catalog produced by ESA’s Gaia mission, allowing for the generation of plane-of-sky measurements with an accuracy similar to that obtained today using VLBI tracking techniques. The second is optical ranging using active optical systems at both ends of the link, requiring a more careful design of the spacecraft optical communications system. One of the advantages of using optical frequencies is that they are not affected by charged particles in the signal path the way that radio frequencies are, eliminating solar plasma and ionospheric effects from the light-time calculation and the corresponding noise. On the other hand, clouds would preclude any type of optical communication, and daytime light scattering precludes astrometric measurements. This paper presents our analysis so far of the performance that could be achieved using optical data types in a number of deep-space scenarios. One of the questions that we are trying to answer is whether spacecraft equipped with optical communications terminals would also need to carry radio-frequency equipment for navigational purposes. We also want to understand how accurately we will be able to navigate spacecraft in different mission types and phases, and what would be the constraints, advantages, and disadvantages of using optical communications systems for deep-space navigation.

Karimi, Reza↗

DOE OSTI2025

SITCOMTN-162: Testing the implementation of Metadetection and Cell-Based Coadds on Abell 360 LSSTComCam data

The purpose of this technote is to test the technical quality of LSSTComCam commissioning data, specifically the Rubin_SV_38_7 field, by utilizing cell-based coadds and Metadetection by measuring the tangential and cross weak lensing shear profiles of the massive cluster Abell 360 (called A360 throughout the technote). The process entails generating the cell-based coadds for Metadetection to run on, identifying and removing cluster member galaxies, applying quality cuts, calibrating the shear measurements, and validation. Cell-based coadds and Metadetection are both currently in the process of being implemented within the LSST Science Pipelines at the time of this technote. There is substantial technical value in attempting a difficult measurement prior to full implementation. Measuring the tangential shear around A360 will showcase the current abilities of these algorithms, as well as highlight where work is still needed. As seen from the resulting shear profile of A360, the cell-based coadds and Metadetection are able to work in tandem to produce a shear catalog and resulting reduced shear profile. This technote is one part of a series studying A360 in order to both stress test the commissioning camera and demonstrate the technical capabilities of the Vera Rubin Observatory. We study the quality of the PSF modeling and impact it can have on cluster WL in [Combet et al., 2025], implementation of cell-based coadds and subsequent use for Metadetect [Sheldon et al., 2023] in this technote, photometric calibration in (in prep), source selection and photometric redshifts in [Adari et al., 2025], use of Anacal [Li et al., 2024] to produce a cluster shear profile in [Li et al., 2025], and background subtraction in this field and Fornax in [Zhou et al., 2025].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

In search of Nemesis

The parallax of all stars of visual magnitude greater than about 6.5 has already been measured. If Nemesis is a main-sequence star 1 parsec away, this requires Nemesis's mass to be less than about 0.4 solar masses. If it were less than about 0.05 solar masses its gravity would be too weak to trigger a comet storm. If Nemesis is on the main sequence, this mass range requires it to be a red dwarf. A red dwarf companion would probably have been missed by standard astronomical surveys. Nearby stars are usually found because they are bright or have high proper motion. However, Nemesis's proper motion would now be 0.01 arcsec/yr, and if it is a red dwarf its magnitude is about 10 - too dim to attract attention. Unfortunately, standard four-color photometry does not distinguish between red dwarfs and giants. So although surveys such as the Dearborn Red Star Catalog list stars by magnitude and spectral type, they do not identify the dwarfs. Every star of the correct spectral type and magnitude must be scrutinized. Our candidate list is a hybrid; candidate red stars are identified in the astrometrically poor Dearborn Red Star Catalog and their positions are corrected using the Hubble Guide Star Catalog. When errors in the Dearborn catalog make it impossible to identify the corresponding Hubble star, the fields are split so that we have one centering on each possible candidate. We are currently scrutinizing 3098 fields, which we believe contain all possible red dwarf candidates in the northern hemisphere. Since our last report the analysis and database software has been completely rebuilt to take advantage of updated hardware, to make the data more accessible, and to implement improved methods of data analysis. The software is now completed and we are eliminating stars every clear night.

Carlson, S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

VERITAS Observations of Six Bright, Hard-Spectrum Fermi-LAT Blazars

We report on VERITAS very-high-energy (VHE; E >= 100 GeV) observations of six blazars selected from the Fermi Large Area Telescope First Source Catalog (1FGL). The gamma-ray emission from 1FGL sources was extrapolated up to the VHE band, taking gamma-ray absorption by the extragalactic background light into account. This allowed the selection of six bright, hard-spectrum blazars that were good candidate TeV emitters. Spectroscopic redshift measurements were attempted with the Keck Telescope for the targets without Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectroscopic data. No VHE emission is detected during the observations of the six sources described here. Corresponding TeV upper limits are presented, along with contemporaneous Fermi observations and non-concurrent Swift UVOT and XRT data. The blazar broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs) are assembled and modeled with a single-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. The SED built for each of the six blazars show a synchrotron peak bordering between the intermediate- and high-spectrum-peak classifications, with four of the six resulting in particle-dominated emission region.

RGB J0316+090↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗

NASA NTRS1990

An extragalactic reference frame from DSN VLBI measurements - 1989

Assessment of the impact of recent improvements Deep Space Network (DSN) instrumentation, as well as of joint data analyses, provide a prognosis for the accuracy level to be expected in future realizations of an inertial radio reference frame. Intercontinental dual-frequency radio interferometric measurements during 68 sessions (including two recent sessions employing Mark III instrumentation) from 1978 to 1989 using NASA's DSN stations in California, Spain, and Australia give 8900 pairs of delay and delay-rate observations. Analysis yields a catalog of positions of 200 extragalactic radio sources north of -45 deg declination. The resulting source-position formal uncertainty distributions peak below 1 milliarcsecond, with 75 percent being smaller than 2 mas. Comparison with independent measurements shows some evidence for systematic errors at the milliarcsecond level.

Sovers, O. J.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The BATSE Earth Occultation Catalog of Low Energy Gamma Ray Sources

The Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE), aboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), provided a record of the hard X-ray/low energy gamma ray sky between April 1991 and June 2000. During that time, a catalog of known sources was derived from existing catalogs such as HEAO A-4, as well as new transient sources discovered with BATSE and other X-ray monitors operating in the CGRO era. The Earth Occultation Technique was used to monitor a combination of these sources, mostly galactic, totaling to about 175 objects. The catalog will present the global properties of these sources and their probability of detection (> 10 mCrab, 20-100 keV) with BATSE. Systematic errors due to unknown sources or background components are included. Cursory analyses to search for new transients (35-80 mCrab in the 20-100 keV band) and super-orbital periods in known binary sources are also presented. Whole mission light curves and associated data production/analysis tools are being delivered to the HEASARC for public use.

Harmon, B. A.↗