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DOE OSTI2023

A systematic analysis and data mining of opioid-related adverse events submitted to the FAERS database

The opioid epidemic has become a serious national crisis in the United States. An indepth systematic analysis of opioid-related adverse events (AEs) can clarify the risks presented by opioid exposure, as well as the individual risk profiles of specific opioid drugs and the potential relationships among the opioids. In this study, 92 opioids were identified from the list of all Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drugs, annotated by RxNorm and were classified into 13 opioid groups: buprenorphine, codeine, dihydrocodeine, fentanyl, hydrocodone, hydromorphone, meperidine, methadone, morphine, oxycodone, oxymorphone, tapentadol, and tramadol. A total of 14,970,399 AE reports were retrieved and downloaded from the FDA Adverse Events Reporting System (FAERS) from 2004, Quarter 1 to 2020, Quarter 3. After data processing, Empirical Bayes Geometric Mean (EBGM) was then applied which identified 3317 pairs of potential risk signals within the 13 opioid groups. Based on these potential safety signals, a comparative analysis was pursued to provide a global overview of opioid-related AEs for all 13 groups of FDA-approved prescription opioids. The top 10 most reported AEs for each opioid class were then presented. Both network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were conducted to further explore the relationship between opioids. Results from the network analysis revealed a close association among fentanyl, oxycodone, hydrocodone, and hydromorphone, which shared more than 22 AEs. In addition, much less commonly reported AEs were shared among dihydrocodeine, meperidine, oxymorphone, and tapentadol. On the contrary, the hierarchical clustering analysis further categorized the 13 opioid classes into two groups by comparing the full profiles of presence/absence of AEs. The results of network analysis and hierarchical clustering analysis were not only consistent and cross-validated each other but also provided a better and deeper understanding of the associations and relationships between the 13 opioid groups with respect to their adverse effect profiles.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗

DOE OSTI2014

Performance Analysis: Issues Tracking System Data through June 2013

This report presents the results from an analysis of issues and assessments in LLNL’s Issues Tracking System (ITS). The analysis is conducted to identify issues that may require additional management attention and noncompliances that may not have been previously identified that meet the threshold for reporting to the DOE Noncompliance Tracking System (NTS) or to the DOE Safeguards and Security Information Management System (SSIMS). This report includes ITS data within the DOE Office of Enforcement regulated subjects through June 2013. The analysis in this report primarily focuses on deficiencies identified in the last twelve months. The analysis of issues concluded that data for 17 of the 25 Office of Enforcement regulated safety/security subjects were within expected variation. The data for eight met a common test and were discussed further. Three of the eight safety subjects met an action limit and were analyzed to resolution. Analysis of data from one of the safety subjects where a common test was met identified a potential safety related significant or programmatic (systemic) noncompliance with the LLNL work planning and control process. Additional analysis is needed to make a final determination. Note: Since the analysis of WPC deficiencies (through June 2013) was completed, a noncompliance evaluation was also completed in November 2013 and included more recent WPC deficiencies. The analysis of ITS data through June 2013, and the results of the noncompliance evaluation completed in November 2013 led to LLNL filing a programmatic noncompliance report to the NTS in January 2014 titled, Programmatic noncompliance with topical areas within LLNL’s Work Planning and Control process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Consistent Feature Extraction From Vector Fields: Combinatorial Representations and Analysis Under Local Reference Frames

This dissertation presents research on addressing some of the contemporary challenges in the analysis of vector fields—an important type of scientific data useful for representing a multitude of physical phenomena, such as wind flow and ocean currents. In particular, new theories and computational frameworks to enable consistent feature extraction from vector fields are presented. One of the most fundamental challenges in the analysis of vector fields is that their features are defined with respect to reference frames. Unfortunately, there is no single “correct” reference frame for analysis, and an unsuitable frame may cause features of interest to remain undetected, thus creating serious physical consequences. This work develops new reference frames that enable extraction of localized features that other techniques and frames fail to detect. As a result, these reference frames objectify the notion of “correctness” of features for certain goals by revealing the phenomena of importance from the underlying data. An important consequence of using these local frames is that the analysis of unsteady (time-varying) vector fields can be reduced to the analysis of sequences of steady (timeindependent) vector fields, which can be performed using simpler and scalable techniques that allow better data management by accessing the data on a per-time-step basis. Nevertheless, the state-of-the-art analysis of steady vector fields is not robust, as most techniques are numerical in nature. The residing numerical errors can violate consistency with the underlying theory by breaching important fundamental laws, which may lead to serious physical consequences. This dissertation considers consistency as the most fundamental characteristic of computational analysis that must always be preserved, and presents a new discrete theory that uses combinatorial representations and algorithms to provide consistency guarantees during vector field analysis along with the uncertainty visualization of unavoidable discretization errors. Together, the two main contributions of this dissertation address two important concerns regarding feature extraction from scientific data: correctness and precision. The work presented here also opens new avenues for further research by exploring more-general reference frames and more-sophisticated domain discretizations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Materials and Methods for Streamlined Laboratory Analysis of Environmental Samples, FY 2016 Report

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) relies upon laboratory analysis of environmental samples (typically referred to as “swipes”) collected during on-site inspections of safeguarded facilities to support the detection and deterrence of undeclared activities. Unfortunately, chemical processing and assay of the samples is slow and expensive. A rapid, effective, and simple extraction process and analysis method is needed to provide certified results with improved timeliness at reduced costs (principally in the form of reduced labor), while maintaining or improving sensitivity and efficacy. To address these safeguard needs the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) explored and demonstrated improved methods for environmental sample (ES) analysis. Improvements for both bulk and particle analysis were explored. To facilitate continuity and adoption, the new sampling materials and processing methods will be compatible with existing IAEA protocols for ES analysis. PNNL collaborated with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), which performed independent validation of the new bulk analysis methods and compared performance to traditional IAEA’s Network of Analytical Laboratories (NWAL) protocol. ORNL efforts are reported separately. This report describes PNNL’s FY 2016 progress, which was focused on analytical application supporting environmental monitoring of uranium enrichment plants and nuclear fuel processing. In the future the technology could be applied to other safeguard applications and analytes related to fuel manufacturing, reprocessing, etc. PNNL’s FY 2016 efforts were broken into two tasks and a summary of progress, accomplishments and highlights are provided below. Principal progress and accomplishments on Task 1, Optimize Materials and Methods for ICP-MS Environmental Sample Analysis, are listed below. • Completed initial procedure for rapid uranium extraction from ES swipes based upon carbonate-peroxide chemistry (delivered to ORNL for evaluation). • Explored improvements to carbonate-peroxide rapid uranium extraction chemistry. • Evaluated new sampling materials and methods (in collaboration with ORNL). • Demonstrated successful ES extractions from standard and novel swipes for a wide range uranium compounds of interest including UO 2 F 2 and UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 , U 3 O 8 and uranium ore concentrate. • Completed initial discussions with commercial suppliers of PTFE swipe materials. • Submitted one manuscript for publication. Two additional drafts are being prepared. Principal progress and accomplishments on Task 2, Optimize Materials and Methods for Direct SIMS Environmental Sample Analysis, are listed below. • Designed a SIMS swipe sample holder that retrofits into existing equipment and provides simple, effective, and rapid mounting of ES samples for direct assay while enabling automation and laboratory integration. • Identified preferred conductive sampling materials with better performance characteristics. • Ran samples on the new PNNL NWAL equivalent Cameca 1280 SIMS system. • Obtained excellent agreement between isotopic ratios for certified materials and direct SIMS assay of very low levels of LEU and HEU UO 2 F 2 particles on carbon fiber sampling material. Sample activities range from 1 to 500 CPM (uranium mass on sample is dependent upon specific isotope ratio but is frequently in the subnanogram range). • Found that the presence of the UF molecular ions, as measured by SIMS, provides chemical information about the particle that is separate from the uranium isotopics and strongly suggests that those particles originated from an UF6 enrichment activity. • Submitted one manuscript for publication. Another manuscript is in preparation.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2018

Summary of Observations from the 2017 Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Laboratory Analysis Training and Capstone Event

On August 15th thru 17th, 2017 the Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center (FRMAC) Laboratory Analysis division, the FRMAC Fly Away Laboratory (FAL), the FRMAC Assessment division, and the Mobile Environmental Response Laboratory (MERL) held a training and capstone event for staff from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Remote Sensing Laboratory (RSL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). LAB-100, "Sample Control Training", LAB-200 "QA Specialist Training", and LAB-300 "Laboratory Analysis Manager Training" was given the first two days of the event. The purpose of the training and capstone event was to meet training requirements for billeted FRMAC Lab Analysis staff from RSL, LLNL, and SNL as well as raise awareness of the FRMAC Lab Analysis process with EPA staff as part of a Federal Emergency Management Agency — Nuclear Incident Response Team (FEMA-NIRT) laboratory standardization project. An objective of the standardization project was to help improve the transition of operations from DOE to EPA during a response. To do this effectively, detailed knowledge of the FRMAC Lab Analysis process by the EPA is needed. This training provided a good opportunity for this knowledge transfer. A capstone was held after the two-day training event to allow participants to practice the skills they learned in a realistic scenario. A scenario that was previously developed for a quarterly Consequence Management drill (i.e. Dark Phoenix) was used as the basis for the capstone, with laboratory analysis focused injects used to drive the exercise play. Each position within the FRMAC Lab Analysis Division exercised to specific objectives and helped to uncover gaps in the established processes. The lessons learned during this capstone are broken out in the following categories: Sample Control, In-Situ Gamma Spectroscopy, Analysis Request Forms (ARF), Shipping, QA/QC, Fly Away Laboratory (FAL), and Management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Performance Evaluation of the CHKED Multi-Elemental Analysis and Software

The Hybrid K-edge Densitometer (HKED) is a high precision safeguards assay system developed by Ottmar and Eberle [1] for quantification of the U and Pu concentrations of dissolver solutions in spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. The HKED measurement supplements traditional destructive assay methods such as Isotope Dilution Mass Spectrometry (IDMS) and is an essential component of the international safeguards program implementation at these facilities. The Canberra Hybrid K-Edge Densitometry (CHKED) software was recently developed by Canberra Industries to better address the changing composition of the nuclear fuel cycle by addition of a multi-elemental analysis capability to the K-Edge transmission measurement. Our evaluation of the CHKED software was performed at the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to examine the functionality and performance of the CHKED software and algorithms and identify potential areas for improvement of the software. The reader is assumed to be familiar with the HKED technique and its current implementation in safeguards assay of U and Pu in the nuclear fuel cycle. The Canberra Hybrid K-Edge Densitometry CHKED software replicates functionality of the older VMSbased Hybrid K-Edge Densitometer (HKED) software and incorporates additional analysis algorithms and tools. When the traditional HKED analyses are selected, the CHKED software appears to faithfully reproduce the measurement results as reported by the older software. The CHKED software includes a Multi-elemental K-Edge (MEKED) analysis based in part on algorithms devised at Los Alamos National Laboratory. In principle, the MEKED analysis represents a significant advancement over the traditional HKED analysis, providing a capability to analyze the actinide concentrations from complex solutions, such as low U:Pu ratios (e.g., U:Pu = 1:1) including additional minor actinide components such as Np and Am. However, this MEKED analysis is somewhat limited by reliance on a region of interest (ROI) analysis of the spectrum, the need for extensive calibration measurements and a simplistic interpretation of the KED transmission spectrum. Finally, the MEKED algorithm set associated with the CHKED software (V1.0) acquired by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) from Canberra Industries does not seem to be “finished” (e.g., the MEKED analysis seems to only determine measurement results for two actinides with while results for the minor actinides appear to be highly dependent on declaration values).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decay Curve Correction Analysis Report

The decay curve analysis that is done on the short-lived radionuclide gas samples is used to differentiate between gaseous radionuclides that have the same characteristic gamma decay energy, 511 kiloelectron-volts (keV). A sample of stack gas is isolated and the total counts in the 511 keV peak are counted repeatedly in 10-second intervals to evaluate the decay rate of the sample over time. Analysis of this decay data required a series of steps. First, a raw data report is generated by the gamma acquisition system, based on an analysis template within the acquisition software. The data report file was then loaded into Microsoft Word, and a macro was used to perform minor formatting (remove colons and insert tabs between data columns) to allow analysis within Excel. The file is then saved as a text file at this point. The text file is then uploaded into Excel and a series of macros are used to add labels, calculate radioactive decay constants, and analyze the gamma decay data using linear regression techniques. The analysis template has been used since 1998 for stack 53000303 (TA-53, building 0003, exhaust stack 03) and 2000 for stack 53000702. The overall process, including the gamma report format and the macros used in Word and Excel for processing the report, had remained unchanged until 2015. In October of 2015, staff made a change to the report template in the gamma acquisition software which resulted in an error in the calculations later performed by the Excel macro. This error was not caught until a more in-depth review of the analysis took place regarding 2020 data. This report covers a much more complete review of the issue that occurred regarding the decay curve analysis, a review of the calculations completed to correct the issue, a review of the updated decay curve analysis process, and recommendations for moving forward.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strategic Energy Management Program Persistence and Cost Effectiveness An Analysis of the SEM Program Landscape

This study examines the relationship between strategic energy management (SEM) programs and their persistence and cost effectiveness, with analysis based on interview data from 24 SEM program administrators, SEM program evaluations, and other reports. The 80 interview questions focused on the topics of program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. The generosity of interview respondents provided a wealth of data, resulting in a report of sufficient length to warrant inclusion of this brief guide of the report structure. The major sections are listed below with brief descriptions. Individual sections of this report are mainly stand-alone and do not require reading of other sections. As a result, there is some duplication between sections, but with differing levels of detail. Executive Summary: Presents three key conclusions of this work with a short description of potential actions to advance the understanding of each key finding. Brief Observations: Lists a large number of bulleted observations resulting from this research, arranged by the five major topic areas included in the interviews. Analysis details are provided in the Analysis of Interview Results section. Foundations for this Research: Provides an overview of SEM, SEM frameworks, SEM programs, the topics of persistence and cost effectiveness, and the focus of this research. Methodology: Details the approach and strategy of this research, providing background information relevant to the formulation of interview questions and the identification of which SEM programs to interview. Observations from Compiled Evaluations and Other Reports: Reports observations from the collection and analysis of program evaluations, annual reports, utility planning documents, and SEM-related white papers. This section, presented in bullet form, highlights challenges in data collection and ultimately a comparison of program practices as they pertain to persistence and cost effectiveness. Analysis of Interview Results: Presents detailed analysis of responses from SEM program administrators, arranged by the five major categories examined: program design, energy savings, energy savings persistence, cost effectiveness, and customer SEM persistence. Interview questions are generally grouped together into subsections when it makes sense to examine them together. SEM Programs Challenge Traditional Cost-Effectiveness Metrics: Details an analysis based on five key factors showing that applying traditional cost-effectiveness metrics to SEM programs is not straightforward. This invites the opportunity to consider whether traditional cost-effectiveness metrics are applicable to SEM programs, either individually or at large. Resolution of Research Hypotheses: Tabulates a set of hypotheses that were developed to address the fundamental nature of the research at hand. Analysis of responses to multiple questions informs an understanding of each hypothesis and can be used to better understand the SEM program environment at large.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Automated Optically Guided System for Chemical Analysis of Single Plant and Algae Cells Using Laser Microdissection/Liquid Vortex Capture/Mass Spectrometry

Current analytical methods are not capable of providing rapid, sensitive, and comprehensive chemical analysis of a wide range of cellular constitutes of single cells (e.g., lipids, metabolites, proteins, etc.) from dispersed cell suspensions and thin tissues. This capability is important for a number of critical applications, including discovery of cellular mechanisms for coping with chemical or environmental stress and cellular response to drug treatment, to name a few. Here we introduce an optically guided platform and methodology for rapid, automated recognition, sampling, and chemical analysis of surface confined individual cells utilizing a novel hybrid laser capture microdissection/liquid vortex capture/mass spectrometry system. The system enabled automated analysis of single cells by reliably detecting and sampling them either through laser ablation from a glass microscope slide or by cutting the entire cell out of a poly(ethylene naphthalate)-coated membrane substrate that the cellular sample is deposited on. Proof of principle experiments were performed using thin tissues of Allium cepa and cultured Euglena gracilis and Phacus cell suspensions as model systems for single cell analysis using the developed method. Reliable, hands-off laser ablation sampling coupled to liquid vortex capture/mass spectrometry analysis was conducted for hundreds of individual Allium cepa cells in connected tissue. In addition, more than 300 individual Euglena gracilis and Phacus cells were analyzed automatically and sampled using laser microdissection sampling with the same liquid vortex capture/mass spectrometry analysis system. Principal component analysis-linear discriminant analysis, applied to each mass spectral dataset, was used to determine the accuracy of differentiation of the different algae cell lines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

An interdisciplinary analysis of ERTS data for Colorado mountain environments using ADP Techniques

Author identified significant preliminary results from the Ouachita portion of the Texoma frame of data indicate many potentials in the analysis and interpretation of ERTS data. It is believed that one of the more significant aspects of this analysis sequence has been the investigation of a technique to relate ERTS analysis and surface observation analysis. At present a sequence involving (1) preliminary analysis based solely upon the spectral characteristics of the data, followed by (2) a surface observation mission to obtain visual information and oblique photography to particular points of interest in the test site area, appears to provide an extremely efficient technique for obtaining particularly meaningful surface observation data. Following such a procedure permits concentration on particular points of interest in the entire ERTS frame and thereby makes the surface observation data obtained to be particularly significant and meaningful. The analysis of the Texoma frame has also been significant from the standpoint of demonstrating a fast turn around analysis capability. Additionally, the analysis has shown the potential accuracy and degree of complexity of features that can be identified and mapped using ERTS data.

Hoffer, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Thermal analysis considerations for large space structures

A number of issues and needs relative to thermal analysis of large space structures and space stations are discussed. Some indications of trends in the Langley thermal-structural analysis research program consistent with the issues and needs are also presented. The main heat transfer mechanism in space is radiation; consequently, there is a need for a strong thrust on improved radiation analysis capability. Also the important interactions among temperatures, deformations, and controls need to be accounted for. Finite element analysis capability seems to be lagging behind lumped-parameter capability or heat pipe analysis. The Langley plan will include improving radiation analysis capability, evaluating the errors involved in certain approximate analysis and modeling techniques for large space trusses, and continuing the development of integrated thermal-structural finite elements with an emphasis on radiation heat transfer. Work will be initiated to develop finite element analysis techniques for heat pipes. Finally, optimization research activities will be oriented toward methods to design flexible orbiting structures to account for thermal and thermal deformation requirements.

Adelman, H. M.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Progress toward the analysis of supersonic inlet flows

A zonal flow analysis procedure was developed to predict the flow through the supersonic diffuser of an axisymmetric mixed compression inlet at angle-of-attack. In this analysis, the inlet flow is divided into three types of regions, each with different dominant flow phenomena. These are the inviscid supersonic core, boundary layer, and shock/boundary layer interaction flows. An appropriate analysis was selected or developed for the three-dimensional flow in each type of region. Procedures were developed to interface these analyses for the overall inlet flow analysis. This analysis was applied to an inlet operating at M = 2.58 at several angle-of-attack conditions. Comparisons are presented between computed and measured flow properties for the inlet and for the component analysis flows. Extensions of the present procedure to include the terminal shock and subsonic diffuser flows are recommended. Desirable experiments for evaluation of the inlet analysis procedure or the component analyses and to support improved modeling or extension of the inlet analysis are defined and recommended.

Paynter, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Spartan Release Engagement Mechanism (REM) stress and fracture analysis

The revised stress and fracture analysis of the Spartan REM hardware for current load conditions and mass properties is presented. The stress analysis was performed using a NASTRAN math model of the Spartan REM adapter, base, and payload. Appendix A contains the material properties, loads, and stress analysis of the hardware. The computer output and model description are in Appendix B. Factors of safety used in the stress analysis were 1.4 on tested items and 2.0 on all other items. Fracture analysis of the items considered fracture critical was accomplished using the MSFC Crack Growth Analysis code. Loads and stresses were obtaind from the stress analysis. The fracture analysis notes are located in Appendix A and the computer output in Appendix B. All items analyzed met design and fracture criteria.

Marlowe, D. S.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A computer analysis program for interfacing thermal and structural codes

A software package has been developed to transfer three-dimensional transient thermal information accurately, efficiently, and automatically from a heat transfer analysis code to a structural analysis code. The code is called three-dimensional TRansfer ANalysis Code to Interface Thermal and Structural codes, or 3D TRANCITS. TRANCITS has the capability to couple finite difference and finite element heat transfer analysis codes to linear and nonlinear finite element structural analysis codes. TRANCITS currently supports the output of SINDA and MARC heat transfer codes directly. It will also format the thermal data output directly so that it is compatible with the input requirements of the NASTRAN and MARC structural analysis codes. Other thermal and structural codes can be interfaced using the transfer module with the neutral heat transfer input file and the neutral temperature output file. The transfer module can handle different elemental mesh densities for the heat transfer analysis and the structural analysis.

Thompson, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis of flexible aircraft longitudinal dynamics and handling qualities. Volume 2: Data

Two analysis methods are applied to a family of flexible aircraft in order to investigate how and when structural (especially dynamic aeroelastic) effects affect the dynamic characteristics of aircraft. The first type of analysis is an open loop modal analysis technique. This method considers the effect of modal residue magnitudes on determining vehicle handling qualities. The second method is a pilot in the loop analysis procedure that considers several closed loop system characteristics. Both analyses indicated that dynamic aeroelastic effects caused a degradation in vehicle tracking performance, based on the evaluation of some simulation results. Volume 2 consists of the presentation of the state variable models of the flexible aircraft configurations used in the analysis applications mode shape plots for the structural modes, numerical results from the modal analysis frequency response plots from the pilot in the loop analysis and a listing of the modal analysis computer program.

Waszak, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

A computer analysis program for interfacing thermal and structural codes

Thompson, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Substructure analysis using NICE/SPAR and applications of force to linear and nonlinear structures

Parallel computing studies are presented for a variety of structural analysis problems. Included are the substructure planar analysis of rectangular panels with and without a hole, the static analysis of space mast, using NICE/SPAR and FORCE, and substructure analysis of plane rigid-jointed frames using FORCE. The computations are carried out on the Flex/32 MultiComputer using one to eighteen processors. The NICE/SPAR runstream samples are documented for the panel problem. For the substructure analysis of plane frames, a computer program is developed to demonstrate the effectiveness of a substructuring technique when FORCE is enforced. Ongoing research activities for an elasto-plastic stability analysis problem using FORCE, and stability analysis of the focus problem using NICE/SPAR are briefly summarized. Speedup curves for the panel, the mast, and the frame problems provide a basic understanding of the effectiveness of parallel computing procedures utilized or developed, within the domain of the parameters considered. Although the speedup curves obtained exhibit various levels of computational efficiency, they clearly demonstrate the excellent promise which parallel computing holds for the structural analysis problem. Source code is given for the elasto-plastic stability problem and the FORCE program.

Razzaq, Zia↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Tiao, G. C.↗