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At least 1,621 records · Page 90

A fast and robust computational modeling approach for density and shape predictions in powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing

Powder metallurgy hot isostatic pressing (PM-HIP) is an advanced manufacturing process that produces near-net-shape parts with high material utilization and uniform microstructures. PM-HIP is frequently used for producing small-scale parts with complicated geometries and is potentially economical for producing large-scale parts. However, excessive post-HIP shape distortions can reduce its effectiveness and economic advantage, especially for larger parts. A PM-HIP computational model can predict and help mitigate these distortions. However, due to complex deformation mechanisms and thermo-mechanical coupling present in PM-HIP processes, these non-linear computational models sometimes become numerically unstable. The numerical instabilities in these models can lead to very slow convergence or no convergence at all, which often translates to slow and unreliable models. These limitations are more pronounced in large models with complicated geometries. Hence, in this work, an alternative modeling approach is presented that improves numerical stability and computational performance. The presented approach achieves these improvements through approximating the fully coupled thermo-mechanical PM-HIP model as a decoupled model and adding inertial damping to the model’s mechanical part. In conclusion, a comparison with the fully coupled model indicated a slight dip in prediction accuracy (<5% error) but significant improvements in numerical stability (>20 times larger time step size) and computational performance (5-10 times speed-up with less computational resource usage) when using the presented approach.

Hot isostatic pressing↗

Digital force prediction for milling

This paper presents a fully digital, integrated approach for milling force prediction with arbitrary end mill-work material combinations. The approach includes: 1) structured light scanning to identify the end mill’s cutting edge macro-geometry along the tool axis; 2) structured light scanning to measure the cutting edge cross-sectional rake and relief profiles; 3) finite element analysis of orthogonal cutting to determine the force model coefficients that relate the force to chip area using the work material’s constitutive model and tool’s rake and relief profiles; and 4) time domain simulation with inputs that include the measured cutting edge macro-geometry, finite element-based force model, and measured structural dynamics. Milling force predictions are compared to in-process measurements to validate the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

OC6 phase I: Improvements to the OpenFAST predictions of nonlinear, low-frequency responses of a floating offshore wind turbine platform

We report in the OC5 and OC6 projects, the authors observed a persistent underprediction of the nonlinear, low-frequency responses of an offshore wind semisubmersible with many mid-fidelity engineering models, including the OpenFAST tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Both the low-frequency wave excitation in surge and pitch and the resulting resonance motions were severely underpredicted. In response, we developed several modifications to the OpenFAST model from the OC5/6 projects to improve the predictions of the low-frequency wave loads and responses. All modifications are in the modeling of the viscous drag forces. Efforts were made to provide physical justifications to the changes and to limit the number of additional parameters requiring tuning, so that the modified model can be applied to other floating wind systems. With the proposed modifications, the predictions of the low-frequency surge and pitch wave loads on a fixed floater and the resonance responses of a floating structure are both significantly improved with a single set of model coefficients, which leads to good agreement with the measurements from the OC6 wave-basin experimental campaign.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bayesian Entropy Neural Networks for physics-aware prediction

This article addresses the need for deep learning models to integrate well-defined constraints into their outputs, driven by their application in surrogate models, learning with limited data and partial information, and scenarios requiring flexible model behavior to incorporate non-data sample information. We introduce Bayesian Entropy Neural Networks (BENN), a framework grounded in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) principles, designed to impose constraints on Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) predictions. BENN is capable of constraining not only the predicted values but also their derivatives and variances, ensuring a more robust and reliable model output. To achieve simultaneous uncertainty quantification and constraint satisfaction, we employ the method of multipliers approach. This allows for the concurrent estimation of neural network parameters and the Lagrangian multipliers associated with the constraints. Our experiments, spanning diverse applications such as beam deflection modeling and microstructure generation, demonstrate the effectiveness of BENN. The results highlight significant improvements over traditional BNNs and showcase competitive performance relative to contemporary constrained deep learning methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Artificial intelligence methods for protein structure and interaction prediction: Recent advances and challenges

Recent advances in artificial intelligence have introduced novel methods for high-accuracy prediction of protein tertiary structures, protein complex structures, and interactions between proteins and other biomolecules, such as small molecules and nucleic acids. Such advancements are accelerating biomedical research and the development of new protein design and bioengineering methods among many other important biotechnology applications. Here, in this review, we outline the recent advances in protein-centric biomolecular structure and interaction prediction, highlight some major challenges in the field, and discuss potential directions to address them.

Morehead, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗

Prediction of alkaline earth metal ion adsorption on goethite for various background electrolytes with the CD-MUSIC model

As water scarcity drives the use of more saline water sources, contaminant fate and transport models must capture the impact of high concentrations of alkaline earth metal ions (AEMs) and background electrolytes in these more complex waters. By utilizing macroscopic adsorption data from various electrolyte systems, a Charge Distribution – Multisite Complexation (CD-MUSIC) model, capable of incorporating electrolyte adsorption, was able to accurately simulate the adsorption behavior of alkaline earth metal ions onto goethite. The modeling effort was guided by previous spectroscopic and surface complexation modeling of alkaline earth metal adsorption and built on previous CD-MUSIC modeling that accounted for changes in crystal face contributions to the surface site density as a function of specific surface area. Further, the model was constrained to consider only two dominant surface complex species for each metal ion adsorption reaction. These two species were selected from 44 possible species through objective curve fitting of single-solute macroscopic adsorption data. While most of the alkaline earth metal surface complexes formed outer-sphere complexes at the goethite surface, an inner-sphere species was utilized for Mg 2+ . With the surface complex species and equilibrium constants obtained from this study, the calibrated model successfully predicted alkaline earth metal ion adsorption over a wide range of solution and surface conditions; the model predictions encompassed a wide range of pH (5–11), solute/solid ratio (1.37 × 10 -5 – 8.33 × 10 -4 mol -solute /g -solid ), ionic strengths (0.01 M – 0.7 M), and background electrolytes (Na + , Cs + , Rb + , Cl - , and NO 3 - ) using the same crystal face contribution methodology for site density, capacitance values, and surface acidity constants adopted for proton and cadmium adsorption in previous work (Han and Katz, 2019). Model simulations for a range of background water chemistries demonstrated the potential for Mg 2+ to reduce Cd 2+ adsorption to goethite in model seawater and oil- and gas-produced waters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Molecular thermodynamics for scaling prediction: Case of membrane distillation

Membrane distillation (MD) for water treatment is significantly impaired by the scaling of dissolved minerals. The type and content of minerals generally measured as total dissolved solids (TDS) in hypersaline brines not only reduce the MD flux but also control the scaling behavior on the membrane surface. The scaling-induced pore blockage further reduces water flux and eventually leads to membrane wetting. The scaling problem is even more pronounced in the treatment of produced water (PW) as it contains 3–7 times higher TDS concentrations, compared to seawater. Theoretically, the necessary conditions for a salt to precipitate can be traced from its solubility product constant and activity of the constituents within the solution. Therefore, a comprehensive thermodynamic model is necessary to represent the electrolyte behavior and to predict the precipitation of different salts in a complex solution like PW. We pursued electrolyte Nonrandom Two Liquid Theory (eNRTL), a state-of-the-art electrolyte model, to address the PW fluid phase equilibria. With a fully parameterized eNRTL model, we predicted salt precipitations in two different PW samples and compared the results against the experimental findings. Furthermore, here we forecast the precipitation of salts in response to the change in PW concentration and temperature in the MD operation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Improving the prediction of DNI with physics-based representation of all-sky circumsolar radiation

Direct normal irradiance (DNI) is often interpreted differently in ground measurements and forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias in DNI forecasting especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To mitigate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to conduct physics-based simulations of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The DNI is quantified using the sum of the radiation along the sun direction and the scattered radiation within the circumsolar region. FARMS-DNI is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to predict day-ahead DNI in 9-km pixels over an extended domain covering the contiguous United States. The DNI forecasts for the entire year of 2018 are validated using surface-based observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites and a satellite-based solar radiation product developed by the procedure of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The results show that the WRF-Solar coupled with the conventional Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law underestimes the overall DNI forecasts by 30%-60%, which is a joint effect of the uncertainties in computing the circumsolar radiation and forecasting cloud properties. This bias is significantly reduced by using FARMS-DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

An evaluation of meteorological data prediction over Washington, D.C.: Comparison of DCNet observations and NAM model outputs

This study presents an example of how outputs of operational and readily-available mesoscale numerical models can be adapted to initialize dispersion calculations within the urban surface roughness layer. Three years of urban meteorological observations from central Washington, DC, are compared against forecast outputs of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. NAM wind speed predictions underestimate the observations in light winds and overestimate the measurements in high winds. Average wind directions are consistent. However, an adjustment of the predicted direction of the plume by –20° is needed. The uncertainty associated with this adjustment is large in light NAM wind speed with no evident variation by season. The values of the standard deviation of the wind direction, σθ derived from NAM model outputs underestimate the observations by a small amount (about –1.5 to –2.5°). The results presented here indicate that mesoscale numerical model outputs can provide information adequate for dispersion calculations. However, levels of uncertainty associated with implementation of the suggested procedures increase with decreasing wind speed, causing considerable uncertainty in the implementation of adjustments as low wind speed conditions are approached. Results and recommendations reported here should not be extended to other numerical models or other cities without further testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Knowledge-guided graph machine learning for spatially distributed prediction of daily discharge and nitrogen export dynamics

Spatially distributed prediction of streamflow and nitrogen export dynamics is essential for precision management of agricultural watersheds. While temporal deep learning models such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) have shown strong performance at basin scales, their ability to generalize spatially is limited by insufficient representation of spatial dependencies and flow paths, particularly under data-scarce conditions. To address this gap, we propose HydroGraphNet, a knowledge-guided graph machine learning framework that integrates process-based knowledge and explicit spatial learning into temporal modeling. This framework incorporates directed graph topology to encode watershed connectivity and upstream inflows, with mass balance constraints to improve physical consistency. To enhance generalization in sparsely monitored regions, HydroGraphNet is pretrained on synthetic data generated by the SWAT+ (Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus) model. We evaluated HydroGraphNet in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (44 HUC-12 subwatersheds, 2001–2020) against two LSTM baselines: a lumped basin-level model and a distributed variant. When benchmarked on SWAT+ simulations in pretraining, HydroGraphNet improved test NSEs by 8.9% (discharge) and 13.7% (NO₃–N load) in temporal extrapolation, and by 27.1% and 34.7% in spatial extrapolation, relative to the Lumped LSTM baseline. After fine-tuning with USGS monitoring data, the model achieved mean test NSE (KGE) scores of 0.768 (0.861) for discharge and 0.626 (0.664) for NO₃–N load, substantially outperforming baselines. Attribution analysis further highlighted the importance of upstream inflow representation and graph-based spatial learning in capturing cross-subwatershed dependencies. The model also reproduced seasonal hydrological and biogeochemical patterns consistent with known processes, demonstrating its robustness and process fidelity for spatially distributed prediction. Altogether, HydroGraphNet advances the integration of physical knowledge and spatially explicit learning in hydrological modeling, offering a generalizable framework for distributed modeling to support spatially targeted water quality management in data-scarce watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prediction of dynamic behavior of a system undergoing an exchange of components using a transmission simulator method

In systems with modular design, it is of interest to perform component exchanges to upgrade components and explore new system configurations. If the dynamics of the components are known, then dynamic substructuring can be used to obtain a prediction of system performance for the new configuration. The transmission simulator method is a substructuring technique that utilizes an additional fixture to apply an elastic boundary condition to a test article such that an appropriate dynamic response can be obtained for a given substructuring application, and the technique has been used widely for performing coupling and decoupling operations. Here, in this work, a modified transmission simulator method is proposed that allows a direct exchange of components to be performed. In a numerical demonstration, the proposed method is shown to accurately predict the dynamics of an assembly that has undergone a component exchange in which the exchanged components have different material properties and different geometric properties. This approach can be applied to dynamic qualification frameworks in which structures undergo modifications or upgrades rather than complete redesigns.

Component exchange↗

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A quasi-linear model of electromagnetic turbulent transport and its application to flux-driven transport predictions for STEP

A quasi-linear reduced transport model is developed from a database of high-β electromagnetic nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations performed with spherical tokamak for energy production (STEP) relevant parameters. The quasi-linear model is fully electromagnetic and accounts for the effect of equilibrium flow shear using a novel approach. Its flux predictions are shown to agree quantitatively with predictions from local nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations across a broad range of STEP-relevant local equilibria. This reduced transport model is implemented in the T3D transport solver that is used to perform the first flux-driven simulations for STEP to account for transport from hybrid kinetic ballooning mode turbulence, which dominates over a wide region of the core plasma. Nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of the final transport steady state from T3D return turbulent fluxes that are consistent with the reduced model, indicating that the quasi-linear model may also be appropriate for describing the transport steady state. Within the assumption considered here, our simulations support the existence of a transport steady state in STEP with a fusion power comparable to that in the burning flat top of the conceptual design, but do not demonstrate how this state can be accessed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Exploring the impacts of conformer selection methods on ion mobility collision cross section predictions

The prediction of structure dependent molecular properties, such as collision cross sections as measured using ion mobility spectrometry, are crucially dependent on the selection of the correct population of molecular conformers. Here, we report an in-depth evaluation of multiple conformation selection techniques, including simple averaging, Boltzmann weighting, lowest energy selection, low energy threshold reductions, and similarity reduction. Generating 50,000 conformers each for 18 molecules, we used the In Silico Chemical Library Engine (ISiCLE) to calculate the collision cross sections for the entire dataset. First, we employed Monte Carlo simulations to understand the variability between conformer structures as generated using simulated annealing. Then we employed Monte Carlo simulations to the aforementioned conformer selection techniques applied on the simulated molecular property—the ion mobility collision cross section. Based on our analyses, we found Boltzmann weighting to be a good tradeoff between precision and theoretical accuracy. Combining multiple techniques revealed that energy thresholds and root-mean-squared deviation-based similarity reductions can save considerable computational expense while maintaining property prediction accuracy. Molecular dynamic conformer generation tools like AMBER can continue to generate new lowest energy conformers even after tens of thousands of generations, decreasing precision between runs. This reduced precision can be ameliorated and theoretical accuracy increased by running density functional theory geometry optimization on carefully selected conformers.

Nielson, Felicity F.↗

Paired Neural Network for Matching Experimental and Predicted Infrared Spectra

Here, we present a novel machine learning (ML)-based scoring technique for determining the similarity between experimental and predicted infrared (IR) spectra for identification purposes. IR spectroscopy is a powerful technique used to identify the molecular structure and composition of a sample by measuring the unique vibrational frequency pattern of the molecule’s functional groups. Molecular identifications are often made by comparing experimental and reference spectra. However, the limited number of reference spectra available in spectral libraries can confound the identification process. Alternative identification procedures rely on in silico techniques to simulate spectra for a wide range of molecules. However, scoring spectral similarity between an experimental query and computationally predicted reference remains a significant challenge. Our proposed ML-based scoring technique overcomes these barriers by accurately and efficiently determining spectral similarity.

Neural Network↗

Computational Prediction of Coiled–Coil Protein Gelation Dynamics and Structure

Protein hydrogels represent an important and growing biomaterial for a multitude of applications, including diagnostics and drug delivery. We have previously explored the ability to engineer the thermoresponsive supramolecular assembly of coiled–coil proteins into hydrogels with varying gelation properties, where we have defined important parameters in the coiled–coil hydrogel design. Using Rosetta energy scores and Poisson–Boltzmann electrostatic energies, we iterate a computational design strategy to predict the gelation of coiled–coil proteins while simultaneously exploring five new coiled–coil protein hydrogel sequences. Provided this library, we explore the impact of in silico energies on structure and gelation kinetics, where we also reveal a range of blue autofluorescence that enables hydrogel disassembly and recovery. As a result of this library, we identify the new coiled–coil hydrogel sequence, Q5, capable of gelation within 24 h at 4 °C, a more than 2-fold increase over that of our previous iteration Q2. The fast gelation time of Q5 enables the assessment of structural transition in real time using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) that is correlated to coarse-grained and atomistic molecular dynamics simulations revealing the supramolecular assembling behavior of coiled–coils toward nanofiber assembly and gelation. This work represents the first system of hydrogels with predictable self-assembly, autofluorescent capability, and a molecular model of coiled–coil fiber formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting and Synthesizing Interface Stabilized 2D Layers

The compound (Pb 2 MnSe 3 ) 0.6 VSe 2 was predicted to be kinetically stable based on density functional theory (DFT) calculations on an island of Pb 2 MnSe 3 between layers of VSe 2 . This approach provides a high degree of freedom by not forcing interlayer lattice match, making it ideal to investigate the likelihood of formation of new incommensurate layer misfit structures. The free space around the island is critical, as it allows atoms to diffuse and hence exploring the local energy landscape around the initial configuration. (Pb 2 MnSe 3 ) 0.6 VSe 2 was synthesized via a near diffusionless reaction from precursors where a repeating sequence of elemental layers matches the local composition and layer sequence of the predicted compound. The VSe 2 layer consists of a Se–V–Se trilayer with octahedral coordination of the V atoms. The Pb 2 MnSe 3 layer consists of three rock-salt-like planes, with a MnSe layer between the planes of PbSe. The center MnSe plane stabilizes the puckering of the outer PbSe layers. Electrical properties indicate that (Pb 2 Mn 1 Se 3 ) 0.6 VSe 2 undergoes a charge density wave transition at ~100 K and orders ferromagnetically at 35 K. Overall, the combination of theory and experiment enables a faster convergence to new heterostructures than either approach in isolation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Physics-Informed Machine-Learning Prediction of Curie Temperatures and Its Promise for Guiding the Discovery of Functional Magnetic Materials

High-performance permanent magnets with a high Curie temperature, containing less critical materials, are integral to zero-carbon energy solutions. We built a machine-learning model trained over available experimentally measured Curie temperature values to predict the T C of multicomponent magnetic materials. We chose two compositions from a pseudo-binary (Zr 1–x Ce x )Fe 2 system, namely, (Zr 0.16 Ce 0.84 )Fe 2 and (Zr 0.94 Ce 0.06 )Fe 2 , to experimentally validate the ability of our model to predict the Curie temperature of novel compounds. We also provided a detailed discussion on the correlation of the Curie temperature with the de Gennes scaling factor in rare-earth intermetallic compounds and its breakdown below a certain rare-earth content. The electronic structure calculations (density of states and Fermi surface) were performed using the density functional theory on selected compounds (Zr 0.16 Ce 0.84 )Fe 2 and (Zr 0.94 Ce 0.06 )Fe 2 to understand the electronic origin of a strong magnetic exchange. We found that the change in the electronic density of states and electron/hole fillings at the Fermi level directly correlate with the Curie temperature. Notably, our model was able to capture these key electronic structure trends, which show that physics-informed machine learning can play a crucial role in designing new high-performance magnets with improved properties for environmentally sustainable applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗