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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Control co-design under uncertainty for offshore wind farms: Optimizing grid integration, energy storage, and market participation

Offshore wind farms (OWFs) are set to significantly contribute to global decarbonization efforts. Developers often use a sequential approach to optimize design variables and market participation for grid-integrated offshore wind farms. However, this method can lead to sub-optimal system performance, and uncertainties associated with renewable resources are often overlooked in decision-making. Here, this paper proposes a control co-design approach, optimizing design and control decisions for integrating OWFs into the power grid while considering energy market and primary frequency market participation. Additionally, we introduce optimal sizing solutions for energy storage systems deployed onshore to enhance revenue for OWF developers over time. This framework addresses uncertainties related to wind resources and energy prices. We analyze five U.S. west-coast offshore wind farm locations and potential interconnection points, as identified by the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). Results show that optimized control co-design solutions can increase market revenue by 3.2% and provide flexibility in managing wind resource uncertainties.

Control Co-design↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spin-parities of subthreshold resonances in the 18 F(p, α) 15 reaction

The 18 F(p,α) 15 O reaction is key to determining the 18 F abundance in classical novae. However, the cross section for this reaction has large uncertainties at low energies largely caused by interference effects. In this work, we resolve a longstanding issue with unknown spin-parities of subthreshold states in 19 Ne that reduces these uncertainties. The 20 Ne( 3 He, 4 He) 19 Ne neutron pick-up reaction was used to populate 19 Ne excited states, focusing on the energy region of astrophysical interest (≈ 6 – 7 MeV). The experiment was performed at the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory using the high resolution Enge split-pole magnetic spectrograph. Spins and parities were found for states in the astrophysical energy range. In particular, the state at 6.133 MeV ($E^{cm}_{r}$ = –277 keV) was found to have spin and parity of 3/2 + and we confirm the existence of an unresolved doublet close to 6.288 MeV ($E^{cm}_{r}$ = –120 keV) with J π = 1/2 + and a high-spin state. Using these results, we demonstrate a significant factor of two decrease in the reaction rate uncertainties at nova temperatures.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control: Preprint

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Battery Control Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subcomponent Validation of Composite Joints for the Marine Energy Advanced Materials Project

The Marine Energy Advanced Materials project is an ongoing multi-year, multi-lab project with the main goals of addressing barriers and uncertainties facing marine energy developers in adopting advanced materials for structural applications. NREL's goals of the project were to address subcomponents testing needs for marine energy materials, to improve understanding of design allowables at the full-scale and provide near net-scale static and fatigue data of composite subcomponents using materials applicable to the marine energy industry. In the long term, the test method development and data generated would be used to inform standards development. This report outlines perhaps one of the largest-scale studies conducted with regards to saltwater conditioning of various composite material subcomponents and their subsequent structural validation, specifically directed at the marine renewable energy industry. A variety of fiberglass composite panels with epoxy and vinyl ester epoxy resin systems were manufactured at Montana State University, which were then used to manufacture an array of different types of subcomponent test specimens at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus. These subcomponents were in the form of T-bolt and double-ended-insert specimens, which were intended to represent bonded and mechanical bolted connections for thick composite laminates, metal-metal and composite lap shear specimens to evaluate adhesion of constituent materials, and adhesive beam-shear specimens as part of an effort to better evaluate the characteristics of thick adhesive bondlines. Overall, the materials used were fiberglass reinforced epoxy and vinyl ester matrix composites, epoxy and methacrylate adhesives, and 316 and 2507 stainless steels. Specimens were then conditioned in salt water at various temperatures and for various periods of time at Florida Atlantic University and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. All specimens were then mechanically characterized and validated using various test methods under static and fatigue loading conditions at NREL's Structural Technology Laboratory. Throughout the conditioning and mechanical validation process, valuable experience was gained, which will help guide future test method development for marine energy materials. In many instances, the results indicated similar observations as to what had been observed during previous coupon scale characterization efforts that provided a vital understanding of the scale up process. However in some instances, unexpected phenomena were observed, such as interactions between the adhesives and 316 steel. Furthermore, some materials exhibited significant degradation due to the saltwater conditioning. Ultimately, this report provides a detailed summary of the specimens that were designed, the subcomponent test methods that were developed, and the results that were generated, which will serve as important guidance for marine renewable energy developers and researchers for future structural designs and validation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-temperature-superposition analysis of diverse datasets by the minimum-arclength method: long-term prediction with uncertainty margins

In a recent publication, we carried out an extensive analysis of an unsupervised method of determining optimum shift factors in time-temperature-superposition of accelerated-aging data that involves minimizing the vertical arclength to obtain the master curve. For synthetic Arrhenius data with a variety of noise distributions, the work showed that, in conjunction with bootstrap-resampling, the method can produce reliable estimates of the mean activation energy along with uncertainty quantification. Here, we apply the above method to six different datasets taken from the published literature and demonstrate accurate prediction of mean activation energy from the data as-is without the need for any pre-processing or fitting. We also compare uncertainty margins computed by second-order bootstrap with that by linear regression theory and show that the former appears to provide consistent margins in the presence of common noise types in real data, including intra-isotherm measurement-errors, sample-to-sample variations, and intrinsic deviation from perfect Arrhenius behavior.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electromagnetic energy calibration of the SoLid detector with horizontal muons

SoLid is a neutrino experiment at very-short baselinesearching for active-to-sterile oscillations of reactorantineutrinos. The detection principle is based on the pairing oftwo types of solid scintillators: polyvinyl toluene and $^{6}$Li:ZnS(Ag), which is a new technology used in this field ofPhysics. In addition to good neutron-gamma discrimination, thissetup allows the detector to be highly segmented; the basicdetection unit is a 5 cm cube. High segmentation provides numerousadvantages including precise localisation of the Inverse Beta Decay(IBD) products, the derivation of an antineutrino energy estimatorbased on the isolated positron energy, and a powerful backgroundreduction tool that relies on the topological signature of thesignal. Finally, the system is read out by a network ofwavelength-shifting fibres coupled to photosensors. A relativeelectromagnetic calibration is performed with horizontal cosmicmuons. This source poses the simplest calibration problem in which asingle detection unit is involved. In addition, large muon energydeposits allow us to perform a calibration at the most detailedlevel (i.e. per fibre) and to accurately define the fraction ofenergy escaping to neighbouring detection cells. A statisticalprecision at the sub-percent level is reached. The paper alsodiscusses two methods to calibrate the absolute energy scale andpresents their implementation and results. The first method relieson horizontal muons, though the precision is limited to around 10%because of the uncertainty in the energy distribution of suchmuons. A novel, alternative method based on the radioactiveamericium-beryllium source is proposed. It takes advantage of theelectron-positron pair-production process and provides a calibrationpoint at 3.4 MeV (i.e. in the core of the IBD positronspectrum). The paper is concluded with various cross-check includinga determination of the energy spectrum of the standard cosmogenicbackground candle: $^{12}$B.

Abreu, Y. [Antwerp U.]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved $^{95}\mathrm{Mo}$ neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates

We report improved 95 Mo neutron resonance parameters and reaction rates are important for nuclear astrophysics, testing nuclear models, and nuclear criticality safety. However, despite many previous neutron-capture and total cross-section measurements on this nuclide, there still is much room for improvement as well as several discrepancies. For example, there are very few firm resonance spin and parity assignments; average resonance parameters are available only for each parity, the currently recommended astrophysical reaction rate results in disagreements between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies, and there are substantial disagreements in the neutron-capture cross section at low energies important for nuclear criticality safety. To obtain an improved set of neutron resonance parameters and astrophysical reaction rates for 95 Mo. High-resolution neutron-capture and transmission data were measured at the Oak Ridge Electron Linear Accelerator (ORELA) using highly isotopically enriched 95 Mo samples. The neutron-capture apparatus, data reduction, and analysis were improved so that information contained in the γ-ray cascade following neutron capture were used to assign resonance J π values. Following this, simultaneous analysis of the new neutron-capture and transmission data was used to obtain resonance energies, gamma widths, and neutron widths and their uncertainties to a maximum energy of 10 keV. Accurate neutron-capture cross sections also were obtained for the unresolved resonance region to a maximum energy of 500 keV and, together with the new resonance parameters, used to calculate the astrophysical reaction rates in the temperature range from 5 to 30 keV. A vastly improved set of 95Mo neutron resonance parameters and an astrophysical reaction rate accurate to about 3% were obtained. Firm J π assignments were determined for 261 of the 314 observed resonances. This is a very large improvement over the previously published 32 firm J π assignments for 108 resonances. Also, the number of resonances having both firm J π assignments and Γ γ values was increased by almost a factor of 24—from 11 to 261. Neutron- and total-radiation-width distributions and average resonance spacings, average total radiation widths, and neutron strength functions were obtained for the six different s- and p-wave possibilities. Parameters for the lowest s-wave resonance, which is most important for criticality benchmarks, were obtained with high accuracy. Simple modification of the neutron-capture apparatus and expansion and improvement of data analysis techniques led to a large increase in firm J π assignments for 95 Mo neutron resonances. The resulting astrophysical reaction rate is 20%–30% larger than the currently recommended rate at s-process temperatures, which should lead to better agreement between stellar models and meteoric isotopic anomalies. The neutron-capture cross section at low energies is substantially larger than recommended in the latest evaluation, which is problematical for criticality benchmarks. The average resonance spacing as a function of spin and parity is significantly different from current models. The total-radiation-width distributions are significantly broader than predicted by theory and show significant departures from the expected Gaussian shapes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Subcomponent Validation of Composite Joints for Marine Energy Structures

The Marine Energy Advanced Materials project addresses the barriers and uncertainties facing marine renewable energy developers in using composite materials for load-bearing structures. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office, the multiyear project comprises of collaborators from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Sandia National Laboratories, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Montana State University (MSU), Florida Atlantic University (FAU), and industry stakeholders. As part of the Marine Energy Advanced Materials project, marine renewable energy industry surveys and assessments were conducted to identify key materials and knowledge gaps that hinder the adoption of composite materials in marine renewable energy structures. Specific knowledge gaps highlighted for composite materials were environmental effects, fatigue strengths, and bonded and bolted interconnects (composite/composite and composite/metal). It was concluded that many of these gaps could be addressed through subcomponent validation; consequently, a program was developed at NREL with the goals of developing subcomponent validation methods for appropriate marine energy materials, which would improve the understanding of design allowables for full-scale structural components and joints. Ultimately, the aim is to reduce timelines and costs associated with full-scale structural validation efforts while also providing near-net-scale static and fatigue data of composite/metal subcomponents for marine renewable energy systems. To approach these goals, a testing program was developed at NREL to investigate a variety of materials and structural design details at the subcomponent scale to understand (a) the effects of harsh and corrosive marine energy environments and (b) the static and fatigue strengths of the complex geometries. The recent study from this testing program is perhaps the largest that has ever been conducted with respect to specimen scale and geographic diversity of underwater environmental conditions that the specimens were subjected to. A variety of specimen geometries were designed by NREL to highlight key features of multimaterial (composite/composite or metal/composite) interconnects that may be used in marine renewable energy structural designs. The designs used several different composite matrices, adhesives, and marine-grade steels, which were highlighted in the surveys as being the most appropriate for harsh marine environments. Composite panels were then manufactured at MSU, and were subsequently manufactured into test specimens by NREL. The specimens were shipped to FAU and PNNL for conditioning in ocean water tanks at various temperatures for an extended period. The specimens were then returned to NREL for structural validation. This presentation will provide an overview of recent advances within the testing program in terms of specimen design and test methods, and will discuss results and key findings of the subcomponent testing program to date at NREL.

adhesives↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elastic scattering of 3 He + 4 He with the SONIK scattering chamber

Measurements of the elastic scattering cross section of 3 He and 4 He are important in order to improve constraints on theoretical models of 4 He ⁢( 3 He ,𝛾)⁢ 7 Be, a key reaction in Big Bang nucleosynthesis and solar neutrino production. The astrophysical 𝑆 factor for this reaction is a significant source of uncertainty in the standard-solar-model prediction of the 7 Be and 8 B solar neutrino fluxes. The elastic scattering measurements reported in the literature do not extend to low energies and lack proper uncertainty quantification. A new measurement of the 4 He ⁢( 3 He, 3 He)⁢ 4 He reaction has been made at center-of-mass energies 𝐸c.m.=0.38−3.13 MeV using the Scattering of Nuclei in Inverse Kinematics (SONIK) scattering chamber: a windowless, extended gas target surrounded by an array of 30 collimated silicon charged particle detectors situated at TRIUMF. This is the first elastic scattering measurement of 3 He + 4 He made below 500 keV and it has greater angular range and better precision than previous measurements. The elastic scattering data were analyzed using both 𝑅-matrix and halo effective field theory frameworks, and values of the 𝑠-wave scattering length and effective range were extracted. Here, the resulting improvement in knowledge of the 𝑠-wave effective-range function at low energies reduces the overall uncertainty in 𝑆 34 at solar energies.

Elastic scattering reactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Uncertainty Management Framework for Integrated Gas-Electric Energy Systems

In many parts of the world, electric power systems have seen a significant shift toward generation from renewable energy and natural gas. Because of their ability to flexibly adjust power generation in real time, gas-fired power plants are frequently seen as the perfect partner for variable renewable generation. However, this reliance on gas generation increases interdependence and propagates uncertainty between power grids and gas pipelines and brings coordination and uncertainty management challenges. To address these issues, we propose an uncertainty management framework for uncertain, but bounded gas consumption by gas-fired power plants. The admissible ranges are computed based on a joint optimization problem for the combined gas and electricity networks, which involves chance-constrained scheduling for the electric grid and a novel robust optimization formulation for the natural-gas network. This formulation ensures feasibility of the integrated system with a high probability, while providing a tractable numerical formulation. A key advance with respect to existing methods is that our method is based on a physically accurate, validated model for transient gas pipeline flows. Our case study benchmarks our proposed formulation against methods that ignore how reserve activation impacts the fuel use of gas power plants and only consider predetermined gas consumption. Here, the results demonstrate the importance of considering uncertainty to avoid operating constraint violations and curtailment of gas to the generators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of the single-event method for low-energy electron transport via stopping power calculations with $\mathrm{MCNP}$

Monte Carlo simulations of low-energy ( <50 keV) electron transport in matter are essential for a broad range of application fields. Several Monte Carlo codes have developed specialized treatments for this case, but a comprehensive validation of low-energy electron transport for general-purpose simulations remains lacking in the literature. One approach to accomplish this validation is calculation of stopping power using low-energy electron transport physics, as stopping power is a fundamental radiation transport quantity which must be simulated accurately for nearly any application. Here in this work, we use the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) radiation transport code with the single-event method for electron transport to calculate stopping powers of low-energy electrons (50 eV to 30 keV) in 41 elemental solids, 14 compound solids, and five rare gas solids, comparing simulation results to published semi-empirical stopping power calculations from optical measurements. In general, the simulations give good agreement (typically within ±10%) with semi-empirical stopping power values at higher energies: 300 eV and above for most elemental solids, 1 keV and above for compound solids, and 400 eV and above for rare gas solids. Agreement between MCNP and semi-empirical values is worse below these energies. The most significant source of error is the EPRDATA14 cross section data, which does not account for changes in electronic structure due to solid-state bonding, particularly in compound materials. The simplistic model of atomic excitation used to generate the EPRDATA14 cross sections is another key source of error. Additionally, the breakdown of the continuous slowing-down approximation introduces significant uncertainty at low energies, although this is a limitation of the calculation method and not of the simulation procedure. Accounting for these and other uncertainty sources, the single event method in MCNP is robust and able to give good accuracy for a variety of low-energy electron transport problems through diverse kinds of materials.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind Plant Performance Prediction Benchmark Phase 1 (Technical Report)

Financial risk resulting from the uncertainty associated with developing, owning, and operating wind power plants remains a barrier to reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). On average, modern wind power plants in the U.S. underperform their expected annual energy output by 3.5-4.5% , with many underperforming by over 10%. To compensate for this uncertainty, investors require a larger return on investment (ROI) and apply "knock-down" factors that mask much of the underlying sources of uncertainty. Wind energy projects thus have reduced access to low-cost capital. Furthermore, operating wind plants often take a simple approach to estimating operations & maintenance (O&M) costs (e.g. straight-line estimates based on similar plants), which can eat into profits. To overcome these issues, the wind industry must improve the models they use for estimating wind plant performance and operations. An industry consortium (IC) requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) lead a Department of Energy (DOE) working group to benchmark the accuracy of wind power plant energy predictions against real operational data. The IC was also motivated by DOE and NREL's potential to characterize systematic energy underperformance, identify sources of uncertainty, and explore root causes. The Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) project was created out of this request, and this report represents the successful completion of Phase 1 of the WP3 project. During the project, wind plant owners provided both pre-construction and operational data to NREL. The pre-construction data was provided to wind resource assessment (WRA) consultants so they could conduct energy yield assessments (EYA). NREL took all of the completed EYAs, along with the operational data, and conducted an operational assessment to benchmark the EYA results against actual operational data. Given the large amounts of sensitive data required for this effort, as well as historical opposition to sharing data within industry, successful completion of Phase 1 represents an unprecedented milestone for industry data sharing. To improve the accuracy and confidence of pre-construction EYAs, wind plant owners and investors need better, more certain, energy yield predictions. The WP3 Benchmark Project is an industry-driven response to this reality. For the first time, industry has taken the important step of working together at scale, sharing valuable operational data with DOE and NREL in order to investigate the sources of bias and uncertainty in these energy estimates. This IC provides wind plant preconstruction and operational data to NREL in an organized and documented fashion and provides guidance and feedback as needed. The IC also provides introspection of the design of experiment, key metrics of success, data challenges, analysis best practices, and quality of results.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electricity demand in South Asia – data gaps and pathways for research and modeling

South Asia is one of the fastest growing regions - economically and energy-wise in the world. However, there are significant uncertainties in how the energy demand would grow given the rapidly rising incomes, urbanization, industrialization, access to energy, warming climate and technological change. The transition to clean energy in the region is a priority and is critical to limiting emissions in the region and increasing regional energy security. The power sector will play an important role in decarbonization of energy systems, lowering emissions in other sectors through electrification. However, as existing end uses are scaled up more and new end uses are electrified, the temporal and spatial patterns of electricity consumption could change. These changes have implications for the magnitude, shape, and timing of peak demand, which in turn affects the power sector’s investments and operations, and ability to provide reliable power. In this report, we outline key uncertainties in demand growth that South Asian countries would face in the near to medium term, along with summarizing insights from stakeholder consultations we held over the past 6 months.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prompt-fission-neutron spectra in the 239 Pu( n,f ) reaction

Prompt-fission-neutron spectra from Pu 239 ( n , f ) were measured with respect to Cf 252 spontaneous fission for incident neutron energies from 0.7 to 700 MeV at the Weapons Neutron Research facility (WNR) of the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center. A newly designed high-efficiency fission chamber was coupled to the highly segmented Chi-Nu neutron liquid scintillator array to detect neutrons emitted in fission events. The double time-of-flight technique was used to deduce the incident neutron energies from the spallation target and the outgoing-neutron energies from the fission chamber. Prompt-fission-neutron spectra (PFNS) were measured with respect to Cf 252 spontaneous fission down to 200 keV and up to about 12 MeV for all the incident neutron energies with typical total uncertainties well below 2 % up to about 7-MeV outgoing-neutron energy. The general trend of PFNS is well reproduced by JEFF3.3 and ENDF evaluations, although a better agreement is found with JEFF3.3. Discrepancies were observed for the low-energy part of the spectra, especially around the opening of the second-, third- and fourth-chance fission. Additionally, neutron average kinetic energies as a function of incident neutron energy are obtained experimentally with reported total uncertainties below 0.5 % . The measured values agree with the most recent data. The trend is fairly well reproduced by the JEFF3.3 evaluation, although it fails to reproduce the experimental values within their uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A robust offering strategy for wind producers considering uncertainties of demand response and wind power

This paper proposes a risk-constrained decision-making approach for a wind power producer participating in the day-ahead market. In the developed model, a flexible demand response trading scheme between the wind power producer and different customers is employed. Through the proposed demand response mechanism, the wind power producer is able to trade demand response resource internally with different customers, and then trade energy externally with the market to increase the expected profit and the wind energy utilization. The uncertainties in the wind power and demand response are modeled by using the information gap decision theory approach from risk averse (robust) and risk-seeking (opportunistic) perspectives. The objective of the robust model is to maximize the robust level while satisfying the desired profit, whereas the opportunistic model aims to evaluate the possibility of achieving windfall profits with favorable uncertainties. The overall offering strategy problem is modeled as a bi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming, which is linearized by proper techniques and solved efficiently by using the normal boundary intersection technique. In this work, simulation results show that utilizing demand response resource to mitigate wind power deviations can increase a wind power producer's profit and reduce potential risks. In addition, the results demonstrate that the proposed bi-objective optimization approach enables the wind power producer to select appropriate offering decisions with respect to uncertainties.

17 WIND ENERGY↗