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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

Climate Change Penalty and Benefit on Surface Ozone: A Global Perspective Based on CMIP6 Earth System Models

This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

surface ozone↗

Biological production models as elements of coupled, atmosphere-ocean models for climate research

Process models of phytoplankton production are discussed with respect to their suitability for incorporation into global-scale numerical ocean circulation models. Exact solutions are given for integrals over the mixed layer and the day of analytic, wavelength-independent models of primary production. Within this class of model, the bias incurred by using a triangular approximation (rather than a sinusoidal one) to the variation of surface irradiance through the day is computed. Efficient computation algorithms are given for the nonspectral models. More exact calculations require a spectrally sensitive treatment. Such models exist but must be integrated numerically over depth and time. For these integrations, resolution in wavelength, depth, and time are considered and recommendations made for efficient computation. The extrapolation of the one-(spatial)-dimension treatment to large horizontal scale is discussed.

Platt, Trevor↗

A numerical model for coupling between atomization and spray dynamics in liquid rocket thrust chambers

This paper describes a novel method of coupling the atomization and spray combustion processes encountered in coaxial injection elements of liquid rocket engine thrust chambers. This method is based on the Jet-Embedding technique in which the liquid jet core equations and the gas phase equations are solved separately. The liquid and gas phase solutions, however, are coupled through the boundary conditions at the interface between the phases. The computational grid for the gas phase calculations are adapted to the shape of the liquid jet core. The axial variation of droplet sizes are calculated using a stability analysis appropriate for the atomization regime of liquid jet breakup. The predictions of this method have been validated with experimental data on low speed water jets. Using this method, calculations are performed for the SSME fuel preburner single injector flow field. The results obtained are in good agreement with the predictions of the volume-of-fluid method.

Giridharan, M. G.↗

Coupled thermal/chemical/mechanical modeling of energetic materials in ALE3D

We must improve our ability to model the response of energetic materials to thermal stimuli and the processes involved in the energetic response. We have developed and used a time step option to efficiently and accurately compute the hours that the energetic material can take to react. Since on these longer film scales, materials can be expected to have significant motion, it is even more important to provide high-order advection for all components, including the chemical species. We show an example cook-off problem to illustrate these capabilities.

WEAPONS↗

Doubled CO2 Effects on NO(y) in a Coupled 2D Model

Changes in temperature and ozone have been the main focus of studies of the stratospheric impact of doubled CO2. Increased CO2 is expected to cool the stratosphere, which will result in increases in stratospheric ozone through temperature dependent loss rates. Less attention has been paid to changes in minor constituents which affect the O3 balance and which may provide additional feedbacks. Stratospheric NO(y) fields calculated using the GSFC 2D interactive chemistry-radiation-dynamics model show significant sensitivity to the model CO2. Modeled upper stratospheric NO(y) decreases by about 15% in response to CO2 doubling, mainly due to the temperature decrease calculated to result from increased cooling. The abundance of atomic nitrogen, N, increases because the rate of the strongly temperature dependent reaction N + O2 yields NO + O decreases at lower temperatures. Increased N leads to an increase in the loss of NO(y) which is controlled by the reaction N + NO yields N2 + O. The NO(y) reduction is shown to be sensitive to the NO photolysis rate. The decrease in the O3 loss rate due to the NO(y) changes is significant when compared to the decrease in the O3 loss rate due to the temperature changes.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗

Ultrasonic Motors (USM) - an emerging actuation technology for planetary applications

A hybrid model that addressed a complete ultrasonic motor as a system was developed. The model allows using powerful commercial FE package to express dynamic characteristics of the stator and the rotor in engineering practice. An analog model couples the finite element models for the stator and rotor for the stator-interface layer-rotor syste. The model provides reasonably accurate results for CAD.

electroactive polymers actuators EAP materials art↗

Ionization Processes in the Atmosphere of Titan (Research Note). III. Ionization by High-Z Nuclei Cosmic Rays

Context. The Cassini-Huygens mission has revealed the importance of particle precipitation in the atmosphere of Titan thanks to in-situ measurements. These ionizing particles (electrons, protons, and cosmic rays) have a strong impact on the chemistry, hence must be modeled. Aims. We revisit our computation of ionization in the atmosphere of Titan by cosmic rays. The high-energy high-mass ions are taken into account to improve the precision of the calculation of the ion production profile. Methods. The Badhwahr and O Neill model for cosmic ray spectrum was adapted for the Titan model. We used the TransTitan model coupled with the Planetocosmics model to compute the ion production by cosmic rays. We compared the results with the NAIRAS/HZETRN ionization model used for the first time for a body that differs from the Earth. Results. The cosmic ray ionization is computed for five groups of cosmic rays, depending on their charge and mass: protons, alpha, Z = 8 (oxygen), Z = 14 (silicon), and Z = 26 (iron) nucleus. Protons and alpha particles ionize mainly at 65 km altitude, while the higher mass nucleons ionize at higher altitudes. Nevertheless, the ionization at higher altitude is insufficient to obscure the impact of Saturn s magnetosphere protons at a 500 km altitude. The ionization rate at the peak (altitude: 65 km, for all the different conditions) lies between 30 and 40/cu cm/s. Conclusions. These new computations show for the first time the importance of high Z cosmic rays on the ionization of the Titan atmosphere. The updated full ionization profile shape does not differ significantly from that found in our previous calculations (Paper I: Gronoff et al. 2009, 506, 955) but undergoes a strong increase in intensity below an altitude of 400 km, especially between 200 and 400 km altitude where alpha and heavier particles (in the cosmic ray spectrum) are responsible for 40% of the ionization. The comparison of several models of ionization and cosmic ray spectra (in intensity and composition) reassures us about the stability of the altitude of the ionization peak (65 km altitude) with respect to the solar activity.

Gronoff, G.↗

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗

Evaluation of the Surface Representation of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a General Circulation Model

Simulated surface conditions of the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are examined for the contemporary Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). A surface parameterization that explicitly models surface processes including snow compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, and surface albedo is found to remedy an erroneous deficit in the annual net surface energy flux and provide an adequate representation of surface mass balance (SMB) in an evaluation using simulations at two spatial resolutions. The simulated 1980-2008 GrIS SMB average is 24.7+/-4.5 cm yr(- 1) water-equivalent (w.e.) at.5 degree model grid spacing, and 18.2+/-3.3 cm yr(- 1) w.e. for 2 degree grid spacing. The spatial variability and seasonal cycle of the simulation compare favorably to recent studies using regional climate models, while results from 2 degree integrations reproduce the primary features of the SMB field. In comparison to historical glaciological observations, the coarser resolution model overestimates accumulation in the southern areas of the GrIS, while the overall SMB is underestimated. These changes relate to the sensitivity of accumulation and melt to the resolution of topography. The GEOS-5 SMB fields contrast with available corresponding atmospheric models simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It is found that only a few of the CMIP5 AGCMs examined provide significant summertime runoff, a dominant feature of the GrIS seasonal cycle. This is a condition that will need to be remedied if potential contributions to future eustatic change from polar ice sheets are to be examined with GCMs.

AGCM↗

Long-Term Changes in Lower Tropospheric Baseline Ozone Concentrations:

Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

atmospheric composition↗

Role of Clouds, Aerosols, and Aerosol-Cloud Interaction in 20th Century Simulations with GISS ModelE2

We use the new version of NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model, modelE2 with 2º by 2.5º horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers, with the model top at 0.1 hPa [Schmidt et al., 2014]. We use two different treatments of the atmospheric composition and aerosol indirect effect: (1) TCAD(I) version has fully interactive Tracers of Aerosols and Chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. This model predicts total aerosol number and mass concentrations [Shindell et al., 2013]; (2) TCAM is the aerosol microphysics and chemistry model based on the quadrature methods of moments [Bauer et al., 2008]. Both TCADI and TCAM models include the first indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [Menon et al., 2010]; the TCAD model includes only the direct aerosol effect. We consider the results of the TCAD, TCADI and TCAM models coupled to "Russell ocean model" [Russell et al., 1995], E2-R. We examine the climate response for the "historical period" that include the natural and anthropogenic forcings for 1850 to 2012. The effect of clouds, their feedbacks, as well as the aerosol-cloud interactions are assessed for the transient climate change.

climate models↗

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.

stratosphere↗

The GEWEX Process Evaluation Study: GEWEX-PROES

Progress in realistically simulating the energy and water cycles in weather and climate models has been slower than desirable. Climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 (CMIP-5), while more comprehensive than their predecessors, have shown little to no improvement in their biases in simulating key features of the climate system. As a result, uncertainties in global climate and hydrological sensitivities, and in the simulation of regional climate change, have not been reduced significantly. It is time to make use of these opportunities to significantly advance our understanding of key energy and water cycle processes at a wide range of space and time scales, and to provide a more insightful evaluation of the representation of these processes within models. This will require new ways of both analyzing the observations and diagnosing model behavior. The keys to success will be in skillfully combining different data sets and exploring relationships between them, as well as in the ability of models to reproduce those relationships correctly. In response to this challenge, a new GEWEX-wide activity, the GEWEX Process Evaluation Study, will take advantage of the opportunities that the combination of many of the existing data sets provide.

climate models↗