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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,603 records · Page 89
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Report

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of subcritical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Incorporating spatial context into statistical classification of multidimensional image data

Compound decision theory is employed to develop a general statistical model for classifying image data using spatial context. The classification algorithm developed from this model exploits the tendency of certain ground-cover classes to occur more frequently in some spatial contexts than in others. A key input to this contextural classifier is a quantitative characterization of this tendency: the context function. Several methods for estimating the context function are explored, and two complementary methods are recommended. The contextural classifier is shown to produce substantial improvements in classification accuracy compared to the accuracy produced by a non-contextural uniform-priors maximum likelihood classifier when these methods of estimating the context function are used. An approximate algorithm, which cuts computational requirements by over one-half, is presented. The search for an optimal implementation is furthered by an exploration of the relative merits of using spectral classes or information classes for classification and/or context function estimation.

Bauer, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling the Effects of Beam Size and Flaw Morphology on Ultrasonic Pulse/Echo Sizing of Delaminations in Carbon Composites

The size and shape of a delamination in a multi-layered structure can be estimated in various ways from an ultrasonic pulse/echo image. For example the -6dB contours of measured response provide one simple estimate of the boundary. More sophisticated approaches can be imagined where one adjusts the proposed boundary to bring measured and predicted UT images into optimal agreement. Such approaches require suitable models of the inspection process. In this paper we explore issues pertaining to model-based size estimation for delaminations in carbon fiber reinforced laminates. In particular we consider the influence on sizing when the delamination is non-planar or partially transmitting in certain regions. Two models for predicting broadband sonic time-domain responses are considered: (1) a fast "simple" model using paraxial beam expansions and Kirchhoff and phase-screen approximations; and (2) the more exact (but computationally intensive) 3D elastodynamic finite integration technique (EFIT). Model-to-model and model-to experiment comparisons are made for delaminations in uniaxial composite plates, and the simple model is then used to critique the -6dB rule for delamination sizing.

Margetan, Frank J.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inertia estimation for power grids: A review of methods, challenges, and future prospects

The electric power grid is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional synchronous generators to inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and energy storage systems. This evolution leads to a reduction in system inertia, a critical attribute for maintaining frequency stability in response to disturbances. Consequently, the ability to monitor and estimate system inertia has become increasingly essential. This paper provides a comprehensive review of existing inertia estimation methodologies, analyzing them from multiple perspectives, including the types of data utilized, underlying estimation principles, operational modes, and system-wide applicability. A comparative summary table is included to distill commonalities and key characteristics across various studies. In addition, the paper examines practical implementations of inertia estimation across several major power systems worldwide, including the U.S. interconnections, the Nordic power system, and the U.K. grid. Key challenges are identified, particularly in estimating contributions from virtual inertia sources and load-induced inertia in increasingly converter-dominated networks. To address these emerging challenges, the paper proposes an integrated framework for real-time inertia estimation and monitoring. This framework encompasses critical components such as data acquisition, inertia estimation from both synchronous and non-synchronous sources, load-induced effects, optimization techniques, forecasting, and virtual inertia scheduling. Collectively, these elements enable dynamic, system-wide monitoring and adaptive control of grid inertia.

Inertia estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Linear State Estimation for Unbalanced Distribution System

The inclusion of PMU functionality in distribution relays enables the implementation of a linear state estimator (LSE) in Distribution Systems (DS). However, the unbalanced topology and phase coupling in distribution lines necessitate modifications to the LSE formulation. Additionally, the higher fault frequency in distribution systems requires a state estimation approach that is resilient to contingencies. This work proposes an adaptive linear state estimation algorithm tailored for unbalanced distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase laterals. Furthermore, a modified Optimal PMU Placement (OPP) strategy is introduced to ensure full observability in distribution systems with single-phase and two-phase buses. To maintain adaptability to topology changes, the state estimator incorporates circuit breaker status data provided by PMUs, ensuring robust performance during topology changes triggered by faults. The performance of the algorithm is verified on the IEEE 13-bus, 34-bus, and 123-bus systems.

PMUs↗
NASA NTRS1975

Methods Studies on System Identification from Transient Rotor Tests

Some of the more important methods are discussed that have been used or proposed for aircraft parameter identification. The methods are classified into two groups: Equation error or regression estimates and Bayesian estimates and their derivatives that are based on probabilistic concepts. In both of these two groups the cost function can be optimized either globally over the entire time span of the transient, or sequentially, leading to the formulation of optimum filters. Identifiability problems and the validation of the estimates are briefly outlined, and applications to lifting rotors are discussed.

Hohenemser, K. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Card, D. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Hydraulic Fracture Propagation Before Fracture Hits

Estimating the distance from hydraulic fracture tip to monitor well can be very useful for fracture characterization, well spacing optimization, and preventing parent-child well interference. Heart-shape signal is referred to as the extensional precursor of fracture hit recorded by cross-well strain measurements and can be served as a vital tool to make such estimation. This study incorporates the 3D Displacement Discontinuity Method to understand the impact of fracture geometry and monitor well offset on the heart-shape signal’s characteristics. Results from numerical simulation and analytical solutions reveal a strong linear correlation between the spatial extent of heart shape signal and fracture tip distance. This relationship was further developed to predict tip distance using field data from the Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2. A reasonable approximation result from field data further validates the methodology. In addition, it is worth noting that the estimation accuracy depends on the ratio between fracture dimension and tip distance. The findings of this study offer a novel approach for real-time monitoring and characterizing hydraulic fracture propagation, which can be further used for well spacing optimization in unconventional and Enhanced Geothermal System reservoir development, as well as cap rock integrity monitoring for carbon sequestration projects.

Jin, Ge↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Regional Energy Consumption for Direct Drone and Truck Deliveries

Drone delivery, once thought of as fictitious, is becoming a reality with the efforts of both forward-looking enterprises and supportive government policies. This emerging mode of e-commerce delivery raises many concerns. One important concern is the energy efficiency of direct delivery drones compared with conventional delivery trucks at a regional systems level. Here, in this study, we develop and apply methods to quantify the regional energy impacts of drone delivery, then we assess these impacts and compare them with the impacts of truck delivery. To study this problem, we develop an optimization model that determines an optimal set of fulfillment centers (FCs) with variable service capacities that allow drones to make direct e-commerce deliveries. We adopt two drone delivery energy estimation models from the literature and use them as inputs to demonstrate the potential range of energy needs. We also develop another optimization model to account for the energy consumption of diesel trucks (DTs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We test the models using validated simulation data for the Chicago metropolitan area in the U.S. to quantify the energy implications of these three delivery modes. For drone delivery, we further extend our analyses by considering the impact of wind speed and flight patterns. Our results show that direct delivery drones require 15.8% more energy than BEVs on an average windy day, and they need 15% more energy than DTs on a very windy day. We provide essential parameter values for reproducibility and list relevant open problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing Earthquake Nowcasting With Machine Learning: The Role of Strain Hardening in the Earthquake Cycle

Abstract Nowcasting is a term originating from economics, finance, and meteorology. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy, markets or the weather at the current time by indirect means. In this paper, we describe a simple two‐parameter data analysis that reveals hidden order in otherwise seemingly chaotic earthquake seismicity. One of these parameters relates to a mechanism of seismic quiescence arising from the physics of strain‐hardening of the crust prior to major events. We observe an earthquake cycle associated with major earthquakes in California, similar to what has long been postulated. An estimate of the earthquake hazard revealed by this state variable time series can be optimized by the use of machine learning in the form of the Receiver Operating Characteristic skill score. The ROC skill is used here as a loss function in a supervised learning mode. Our analysis is conducted in the region of 5° × 5° in latitude‐longitude centered on Los Angeles, a region which we used in previous papers to build similar time series using more involved methods (Rundle & Donnellan, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EA001097 ; Rundle, Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA001757 ; Rundle, Stein et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6633/abf893 ). Here we show that not only does the state variable time series have forecast skill, the associated spatial probability densities have skill as well. In addition, use of the standard ROC and Precision (PPV) metrics allow probabilities of current earthquake hazard to be defined in a simple, straightforward, and rigorous way.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A simple method for obtaining heat capacity coefficients of minerals

Abstract Heat capacity data are unavailable or incomplete for many minerals at geologically relevant temperatures. Despite the availability of entropy and enthalpy values in numerous thermodynamic tables (even sometimes at elevated temperatures), there remains need for extrapolation beyond, or interpolation between, temperatures. This approach inevitably results in estimates for entropy and enthalpy values because the heat capacity coefficients required for optimal thermodynamic treatment are less frequently available. Here we propose a simple method for obtaining heat capacity coefficients of minerals. This method requires only the empirically measured temperature-specific heat capacity for calculation via a matrix algorithm. The system of equations solver is written in the Python computing language and has been made accessible in an online repository. Thermodynamically, the solution to a system of equations represents the heat capacity coefficients that satisfy the mineral-specific polynomial. Direct coefficient calculation will result in more robust thermodynamic data, which are not subject to fitting uncertainties. Using hematite as an example, this method provides results that are comparable to conventional means and is applicable to any solid material. Coefficients vary within the traditional large 950 K temperature interval, indicating that best results should instead utilize a smaller 400 K temperature interval. Examples of large-scale implications include the refinement of geothermal gradient estimation in rapidly subsiding sedimentary basins or metamorphic and hydrothermal evolution.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetics-Informed Neural Networks

Chemical kinetics and reaction engineering consists of the phenomenological framework for the disentanglement of reaction mechanisms, optimization of reaction performance and the rational design of chemical processes. Here, we utilize feed-forward artificial neural networks as basis functions to solve ordinary differential equations (ODEs) constrained by differential algebraic equations (DAEs) that describe microkinetic models (MKMs). We present an algebraic framework for the mathematical description and classification of reaction networks, types of elementary reaction, and chemical species. Under this framework, we demonstrate that the simultaneous training of neural nets and kinetic model parameters in a regularized multi-objective optimization setting leads to the solution of the inverse problem through the estimation of kinetic parameters from synthetic experimental data. We analyze a set of scenarios to establish the extent to which kinetic parameters can be retrieved from transient kinetic data, and assess the robustness of the methodology with respect to statistical noise. Furthermore, this approach to inverse kinetic ODEs can assist in the elucidation of reaction mechanisms based on transient data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO 2 storage site characterization using ensemble-based approaches with deep generative models

Estimating spatially distributed properties such as permeability from available sparse measurements is a great challenge in efficient subsurface CO 2 storage operations. In this paper, a deep generative model that can accurately capture complex subsurface structure is tested with an ensemble-based inversion method for accurate and accelerated characterization of CO 2 storage sites. We chose Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network with Gradient Penalty (WGAN-GP) for its realistic reservoir property representation and Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) for its robust data fitting and uncertainty quantification capability. WGAN-GP are trained to generate high-dimensional permeability fields from a low-dimensional latent space and ES-MDA then updates the latent variables by assimilating available measurements. Several subsurface site characterization examples including Gaussian, channelized, and fractured reservoirs are used to evaluate the accuracy and computational efficiency of the proposed method and the main features of the unknown permeability fields are characterized accurately with reliable uncertainty quantification. Furthermore, the estimation performance is compared with a widely-used variational, i.e., optimization-based, inversion approach, and the proposed approach outperforms the variational inversion method in several benchmark cases. We explain such superior performance by visualizing the objective function in the latent space: because of nonlinear and aggressive dimension reduction via generative modeling, the objective function surface becomes extremely complex while the ensemble approximation can smooth out the multi-modal surface during the minimization. This suggests that the ensemble-based approach works well over the variational approach when combined with deep generative models at the cost of forward model runs unless convergence-ensuring modifications are implemented in the variational inversion.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photoelectrochemical CO 2 Reduction to CO Enabled by a Molecular Catalyst Attached to High-Surface-Area Porous Silicon

A high-surface-area p-type porous Si photocathode containing a covalently immobilized molecular Re catalyst is highly selective for the photoelectrochemical conversion of CO 2 to CO. It gives Faradaic efficiencies of up to 90% for CO at potentials of –1.7 V (versus ferrocenium/ferrocene) under 1 sun illumination in an acetonitrile solution containing phenol. Here, the photovoltage is approximately 300 mV based on comparisons with similar n-type porous Si cathodes in the dark. Using an estimate of the equilibrium potential for CO 2 reduction to CO under optimized reaction conditions, photoelectrolysis was performed at a small overpotential, and the onset of electrocatalysis in cyclic voltammograms occurred at a modest underpotential. The porous Si photoelectrode is more stable and selective for CO production than the photoelectrode generated by attaching the same Re catalyst to a planar Si wafer. Further, facile characterization of the porous Si-based photoelectrodes using transmission mode FTIR spectroscopy leads to highly reproducible catalytic performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Time-Domain Protection Approach for AC Transmission Systems With Grid-Forming Resources

Ac transmission protection must reliably detect, classify, and locate short-circuit faults from voltage and current measurements. At present, these functionalities, which have been classically engineered using phasors approaches, are being challenged by the dynamic behavior and fault-current limits of converter-based generation. This paper tackles these challenges by engineering a time-domain protection approach that leverages the classical Bergeron model in a new manner. Low- and high-impedance faults are detected and classified by ascertaining how well line voltage and current measurements match the Bergeron equations. Faults are located by posing a novel one-variable optimization problem, whereas voltage and current waveforms at the fault location are estimated by unveiling rigorous relationships. The proposed elements are secure against external faults, measurement errors, and variation of line parameters and sampling time. Furthermore, these advances are tested via electromagnetic transient simulations and are significant to satisfy IEEE and North American Electric Reliability Corporation requirements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report on High-Fidelity Dynamic Modeling of a Coal-Fired Steam Power Plant

As a result of the growth of renewables including solar and wind energy with fluctuating production, fossil fuel power plants are being required to cycle between high and low power production. This cycling is both at a greater frequency and over a wider range than in the past. In many cases, power plants are not designed for this type of cycling operation but can nonetheless endure these challenging operation requirements under the right conditions. In this project, optimal solution for enhanced flexible operations are being investigated using model based estimation and control techniques. To support the development of model-based estimator and model-based controls at GE Global Research, GE Steam Power configured a dynamic model using a reference steam plant design including the boiler, turbine, and water/steam conditioning systems as well as the controls needed for plant cycling with stability and reliability. The dynamic model was built using the APROS® software from VTT, and then calibrated to multiple load conditions from full load (100%TMCR) to partial loads (75%TMCR, 50%TMCR and 25%TMCR) based on internally developed steady state heat balance models at the unit level. These internal heat balance models are based on first principles and extensive engineering experiences from GE Steam Power as an OEM and a services provider. This topical report presents the structure of the unit level dynamic model, the tuning process, and representative simulation results from typical load cycling simulations using the dynamic model.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗