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NASA NTRS2011

Browsing Space Weather Data and Models with the Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System

The Integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) System is a comprehensive web-based platform for space weather information that combines data from solar, heliospheric and geospace observatories with forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models. The iSWA system collects, generates, and presents a wide array of space weather resources in an intuitive, user-configurable, and adaptable format - thus enabling users to respond to current and future space weather impacts as well as enabling post-impact analysis. iSWA currently provides over 200 data and modeling products, and features a variety of tools that allow the user to browse, combine, and examine data and models from various sources. This presentation will consist of a summary of the iSWA products and an overview of the customizable user interfaces, and will feature several tutorial demonstrations highlighting the interactive tools and advanced capabilities.

Maddox, Marlo M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

General-aviation's view of progress in the aviation weather system

For all its activity statistics, general-aviation is the most vulnerable to hazardous weather. Of concern to the general aviation industry are: (1) the slow pace of getting units of the Automated Weather Observation System (AWOS) to the field; (2) the efforts of the National Weather Service to withdraw from both the observation and dissemination roles of the aviation weather system; (3) the need for more observation points to improve the accuracy of terminal and area forecasts; (4) the need for improvements in all area forecasts, terminal forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts; (5) slow progress in cockpit weather displays; (6) the erosion of transcribed weather broadcasts (TWEB) and other deficiencies in weather information dissemination; (7) the need to push to make the Direct User Access Terminal (DUAT) a reality; and (7) the need to improve severe weather (thunderstorm) warning systems.

Lundgren, Douglas J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Rapid weather information dissemination in Florida

The development of the Florida Agricultural Services and Technology (FAST) plan to provide ports for users to call for weather information is described. FAST is based on the Satellite Frost Forecast System, which makes a broad base of weather data available to its users. The methods used for acquisition and dissemination of data from various networks under the FAST plan are examined. The system provides color coded IR or thermal maps, precipitation maps, and textural forecast information. A diagram of the system is provided.

Martsolf, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Doppler radar signatures of developing thunderstorms and their potential to indicate the onset of cloud-to-ground lightning

The capability of Doppler weather radars to short-term forecast the initiation of thunderstorms and the onset of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is examined. Doppler weather radar data from 28 thunderstorms were analyzed from August 1990 in the central Florida environment. These radar echoes were associated with CG lightning strike locations from the National Lightning Detection Network and two lightning detection systems operated by the U.S. Air Force in the vicinity of Kennedy Space Center. From a time history of these radar echoes it was found that a 10-dBZ echo, first detected near the freezing level, may be the first definitive echo of a future thunderstorm. This thunderstorm initiation signature is often accompanied by low-altitude convergence and divergence at the top of the radar echo. The observed lead times between this thunderstorm initiation signature and the first detected CG lightning strike ranged from 5 to 45 min with a median lead time of 15 min. All lightning-producing radar echoes were detected using the thunderstorm initiation signature; however, some echoes exceeded the 10-dBZ threshold and did not produce andy CG lightning. The charecteristics of the WSR-88D and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar systems are evaluated for their capability to detect the thunderstorm initiation signature in central Florida with sufficient temporal and spatial resolution.

Hondl, Kurt D.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Ability of a regional-scale model to predict the genesis of intense mesoscale convective systems

The mesoscale part of a two-part evaluation of 30 forecasts by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model (MASS 2.0) is presented. Unfiltered fields are combined into convective predictor fields, the loci of which are then related at two-hour intervals to the loci of strong mesoscale convective systems identifiable in national radar summary plots and GOES satellite imagery. Examples of model 'forecasts' of intense convective storm clusters, a severe squall line triggered along a dryline, orographically induced hailstorms, and sea breeze thunderstorms are provided.

Koch, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Quarterly Report - Fourth Quarter FY-10

Three AMU tasks were completed in this Quarter, each resulting in a forecast tool now being used in operations and a final report documenting how the work was done. AMU personnel completed the following tasks (1) Phase II of the Peak Wind Tool for General Forecasting task by delivering an improved wind forecasting tool to operations and providing training on its use; (2) a graphical user interface (GUI) she updated with new scripts to complete the ADAS Update and Maintainability task, and delivered the scripts to the Spaceflight Meteorology Group on Johnson Space Center, Texas and National Weather Service in Melbourne, Fla.; and (3) the Verify MesoNAM Performance task after we created and delivered a GUI that forecasters will use to determine the performance of the operational MesoNAM weather model forecast.

Bauman, William↗

NASA NTRS2003

TAMDAR Capabilities Development

In this viewgraph presentation, information is provided on a collaboration between NASA, the FAA (Federal Aviation Administration), and NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association), particularly regarding the development of a TAMDAR Sensor system. TAMDAR is envisioned to downlink weather data such as icing, temperature, pressure altitude, humidity, magnetic heading, eddy dissipation rate, true airspeed, dew point, density altitude, and winds at altitude from non-jet aircraft. The weather data will be sent to FSL (Forecast Systems Laboratory), FSS (Flight Service Station), ATC (Air Traffic Control), AWC (Aviation Weather Center), and others via a ground-based infrastructure and to other aircraft. New weather products will be generated and uplinked to the cockpit.

Daniels, Taumi↗

NASA NTRS2007

New, Improved Bulk-microphysical Schemes for Studying Precipitation Processes in WRF: Comparisons with Other Schemes - Part 1

Advances in computing power allow atmospheric prediction models to be mn at progressively finer scales of resolution, using increasingly more sophisticated physical parameterizations and numerical methods. The representation of cloud microphysical processes is a key component of these models, over the past decade both research and operational numerical weather prediction models have started using more complex microphysical schemes that were originally developed for high-resolution cloud-resolving models (CRMs). A recent report to the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) Science Steering Committee specifically calls for the replacement of implicit cumulus parameterization schemes with explicit bulk schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) as part of a community effort to improve quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF). An improved Goddard bulk microphysical parameterization is implemented into a state-of the-art of next generation of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. High-resolution model simulations are conducted to examine the impact of microphysical schemes on two different weather events (a midlatitude linear convective system and an Atllan"ic hurricane). The results suggest that microphysics has a major impact on the organization and precipitation processes associated with a summer midlatitude convective line system. The 31CE scheme with a cloud ice-snow-hail configuration led to a better agreement with observation in terms of simulated narrow convective line and rainfall intensity. This is because the 3ICE-hail scheme includes dense ice precipitating (hail) particle with very fast fall speed (over 10 m/s). For an Atlantic hurricane case, varying the microphysical schemes had no significant impact on the track forecast but did affect the intensity (important for air-sea interaction)

Tao, W.-K.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Aerosol Data Assimilation and Forecasts in the NASA GEOS Model during the ASIA-AQ Campaign

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) poses significant risks to human health and the environment by penetrating the lungs and causing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, making it crucial to understand its sources and behavior for effective air quality management. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Forward Processing (FP) system model, operated by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, provides real-time weather and aerosol analyses and forecasts. In addition to meteorological data assimilation, the GEOS-FP system also assimilates aerosol using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD data. In this study, the aerosol data assimilation and forecasts performance of the GEOS-FP model were evaluated for predicting PM2.5 in Korea using observations from the Airborne and Satellite Investigation of Asian Air Quality (ASIA-AQ) campaign. The ASIA-AQ campaign, an international collaborative field study initiative, aims to enhance understanding of local air quality issues and address common challenges in interpreting satellite data and air quality modeling. Conducted in South Korea from February 15 to March 13, 2024, during the high PM2.5 concentration winter season, this campaign provided extensive airborne and ground observations for intensive analysis of PM2.5 model simulations. We demonstrate how the assimilation runs and the forecasting performance of PM2.5 at 24-hour and 48-hour intervals vary. Additionally, we analyzed the differences and characteristics of PM2.5 composition in cases of long-range transport and local emissions. Using ASIA-AQ airborne data, we also examined the vertical profile of fine particulate matter. Through the intensive observations of this campaign, the GEOS model was assessed over South Korea using both in situ and airborne measurements to establish a baseline and identify priorities for future development.

Seunghee Lee↗

NASA NTRS1981

Agricultural requirements for precipitation measurements

The requirements for precipitation measurements from space for hydrologic forecasting applications are discussed. The structure of the hydrologic forecasting service of the National Weather Service (NWS) is described, and an attempt is made to estimate the sampling and accuracy requirements for a range of spatial and temporal averaging scales corresponding to various NWS hydrologic applications. Finally, the data base requirements are addressed. The critical point is made that for the data source to be most useful operationally at the NWS River Forecast Centers, the data must be available on-line in a format compatible with computer processing. Several data base systems are illustrated in a scenario for a multi-sensor rainfall analysis system (MSRANS). Actually, MSRANS is the software existing within the various computer environments required to preprocess, process, and analyze rainfall information from multiple sources.

Strommen, N. D.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Solar proton event forecasts

The United States operates a space weather service to provide information on space hazards including solar proton events to Federal government agencies and other users who operate systems that are affected by disturbances in the upper atmosphere and interplanetary environment. The observation and prediction of solar proton events has been continuous through solar cycle 21 (1976 to 1986), establishing a base of experience that can be used in providing similar support to space operations in the 1990's. The observations, indices, alerts, and forecasts used in the service are described. Also provided is a short summary of the experience obtained from making proton event predictions in solar cycle 21 including the years 1976 to 1986.

Heckman, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Solving The Space Weather Problem: A 15+ Year Roadmap to Revolutionize Space Weather Research, Protect NASA Space Assets, and Enable Robust Operations

The White Paper (WP) describes a roadmap to address the Space Weather (SpWx) problem. It presents a strategic vision of how a community-wide effort could be organized and implemented to enable transformative advancement in SpWx research and ultimately, in applications. We envision a ‘system-of-systems’—an integrated web of SpWx stations and state-ofthe-art modeling facilities to enable a transformative advance in SpWx nowcasting and forecasting (Figure 1). The Space Weather Aggregated Network of Systems (SWANS) will enable space situational awareness for end-users invested in spaceflight operations, infrastructure risk mitigation, and future human endeavors in space exploration while profoundly transforming Heliophysics research.

A Vourrlidas↗

NASA NTRS2010

Developing Empirical Lightning Cessation Forecast Guidance for the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center

This research addresses the 45th Weather Squadron's (45WS) need for improved guidance regarding lightning cessation at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (KSC). KSC's Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) network was the primary observational tool to investigate both cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning. Five statistical and empirical schemes were created from LDAR, sounding, and radar parameters derived from 116 storms. Four of the five schemes were unsuitable for operational use since lightning advisories would be canceled prematurely, leading to safety risks to personnel. These include a correlation and regression tree analysis, three variants of multiple linear regression, event time trending, and the time delay between the greatest height of the maximum dBZ value to the last flash. These schemes failed to adequately forecast the maximum interval, the greatest time between any two flashes in the storm. The majority of storms had a maximum interval less than 10 min, which biased the schemes toward small values. Success was achieved with the percentile method (PM) by separating the maximum interval into percentiles for the 100 dependent storms.

LDAR (LIGHTNING DETECTION AND RANGING)↗

NASA NTRS2011

Description and Status of the DC Lightning Mapping Array

The DC Lightning Mapping Array (DC LMA) centered on the Washington, DC metro region has been in operation since 2006. During that time the DC LMA has provided real time data to regional National Weather Service (NSF) Sterling, VA forecast office for operations support and the NOAA Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) for new product development and assessment. Data from this network (as well as other from other LMA systems) are now being used to create proxy Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) data sets for GOES-R risk reduction and algorithm development activities. In addition, since spring 2009 data are provided to the Storm Prediction Center in support of Hazardous Weather Testbed and GOES-R Proving Ground activities during the Spring Program. Description, status and plans will be discussed.

Blakeslee, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2005

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus.

Duda, David P.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Forecast skill of a high-resolution real-time mesoscale model designed for weather support of operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

NASA funded Mesoscale Environmental Simulations and Operations (MESO), Inc. to develop a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS). The model has been modified specifically for short-range forecasting in the vicinity of KSC/CCAS. To accomplish this, the model domain has been limited to increase the number of horizontal grid points (and therefore grid resolution) and the model' s treatment of precipitation, radiation, and surface hydrology physics has been enhanced to predict convection forced by local variations in surface heat, moisture fluxes, and cloud shading. The objective of this paper is to (1) provide an overview of MASS including the real-time initialization and configuration for running the data pre-processor and model, and (2) to summarize the preliminary evaluation of the model's forecasts of temperature, moisture, and wind at selected rawinsonde station locations during February 1994 and July 1994. MASS is a hydrostatic, three-dimensional modeling system which includes schemes to represent planetary boundary layer processes, surface energy and moisture budgets, free atmospheric long and short wave radiation, cloud microphysics, and sub-grid scale moist convection.

Taylor, Gregory E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

UAS Applications for Hurricane Science, Hurrican and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3)

Earth Science Industry Update: UAS Applications for Hurricane Science Unmanned systems can significantly transform hurricane observations and monitoring, improving our knowledge about and ability to forecast storm formation, track, and intensity change. NASA's use of the Global Hawk has demonstrated the scientific value of this platform and provided a proof-of-concept for operational applications. However, science flight operations face several challenges and constraints. In this session, learn about how NASA adapted the Global Hawk to do science; How NASA conducts its hurricane missions, and some of the challenges and constraints they face; Science results from NASA's recent hurricane field campaigns using the Global Hawk. How assimilation of dropsonde and radar data into weather prediction models may improve forecast accuracy; Other Earth science problems that could be addressed with Global Hawks.

Hurricane Science↗

NASA NTRS2009

Cold Season QPF: Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

As operational numerical weather prediction is performed at increasingly finer spatial resolution, precipitation traditionally represented by sub-grid scale parameterization schemes is now being calculated explicitly through the use of single- or multi-moment, bulk water microphysics schemes. As computational resources grow, the real-time application of these schemes is becoming available to a broader audience, ranging from national meteorological centers to their component forecast offices. A need for improved quantitative precipitation forecasts has been highlighted by the United States Weather Research Program, which advised that gains in forecasting skill will draw upon improved simulations of clouds and cloud microphysical processes. Investments in space-borne remote sensing have produced the NASA A-Train of polar orbiting satellites, specially equipped to observe and catalog cloud properties. The NASA CloudSat instrument, a recent addition to the A-Train and the first 94 GHz radar system operated in space, provides a unique opportunity to compare observed cloud profiles to their modeled counterparts. Comparisons are available through the use of a radiative transfer model (QuickBeam), which simulates 94 GHz radar returns based on the microphysics of cloudy model profiles and the prescribed characteristics of their constituent hydrometeor classes. CloudSat observations of snowfall are presented for a case in the central United States, with comparisons made to precipitating clouds as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and the Goddard single-moment microphysics scheme. An additional forecast cycle is performed with a temperature-based parameterization of the snow distribution slope parameter, with comparisons to CloudSat observations provided through the QuickBeam simulator.

Molthan, A. L.↗