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NASA NTRS1996

Photon Number-Phase Uncertainty Relation in the Evolution of the Field in a Kerr-Like Medium

A model of a single-mode field, initially prepared in a coherent state, coupled to a two-level atom surrounded by a nonlinear Kerr-like medium contained inside a very good quality cavity is considered. We derive the photon number-phase uncertainty relation in the evolution of the field for a weak and strong nonlinear coupling respectively, within the Hermitian phase operator formalism of Pegg and Barnett, and discuss the effects of nonlinear coupling of the Kerr-like medium on photon number-phase uncertainty relation of the field.

Fan, An-Fu↗

NASA NTRS1994

System Design under Uncertainty: Evolutionary Optimization of the Gravity Probe-B Spacecraft

This paper discusses the application of evolutionary random-search algorithms (Simulated Annealing and Genetic Algorithms) to the problem of spacecraft design under performance uncertainty. Traditionally, spacecraft performance uncertainty has been measured by reliability. Published algorithms for reliability optimization are seldom used in practice because they oversimplify reality. The algorithm developed here uses random-search optimization to allow us to model the problem more realistically. Monte Carlo simulations are used to evaluate the objective function for each trial design solution. These methods have been applied to the Gravity Probe-B (GP-B) spacecraft being developed at Stanford University for launch in 1999, Results of the algorithm developed here for GP-13 are shown, and their implications for design optimization by evolutionary algorithms are discussed.

Pullen, Samuel P.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Results of a 24-inch Hybrid Motor Performance Uncertainty Analysis

The subscale (11 and 24-inch) hybrid motors at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) have been used as versatile and cost effective testbeds for developing new technology. Comparisons between motor configuration, ignition systems, feed systems, fuel formulations, and nozzle materials have been carried out without detailed consideration as to haw "good" the motor performance data were. For the 250,000 lb/thrust motor developed by the Hybrid Propulsion Demonstration Program consortium, this shortcoming is particularly risky because motor performance will likely be used as put of a set of downselect criteria to choose between competing ignition and feed systems under development. This analysis directly addresses that shortcoming by applying uncertainty analysis techniques to the experimental determination of the characteristic velocity, theoretical characteristic velocity, and characteristic velocity efficiency for a 24-inch motor firing. With the adoption of fuel-lined headends, flow restriction, and aft mixing chambers, state of the an 24-inch hybrid motors have become very efficient However, impossibly high combustion efficiencies (some computed as high as 108%) have been measured in some tests with 11-inch motors. This analysis has given new insight into explaining how these efficiencies were measured to be so high, and into which experimental measurements contribute the most to the overall uncertainty.

Sims, Joseph D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Uncertainty in Calibration, Detection and Estimation of Metal Concentrations in Engine Plumes Using OPAD

Improvements in uncertainties in the values of radiant intensity (I) can be accomplished mainly by improvements in the calibration process and in minimizing the difference between the background and engine plume radiance. For engine tests in which the plume is extremely bright, the difference in luminance between the calibration lamp and the engine plume radiance can be so large as to cause relatively large uncertainties in the values of R. This is due to the small aperture necessary on the receiving optics to avoid saturating the instrument. However, this is not a problem with the SSME engine since the liquid oxygen/hydrogen combustion is not as bright as some other fuels. Applying the instrumentation to other type engine tests may require a much brighter calibration lamp.

Hopkins, Randall C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Antarctic Photochemistry: Uncertainty Analysis

Understanding the photochemistry of the Antarctic region is important for several reasons. Analysis of ice cores provides historical information on several species such as hydrogen peroxide and sulfur-bearing compounds. The former can potentially provide information on the history of oxidants in the troposphere and the latter may shed light on DMS-climate relationships. Extracting such information requires that we be able to model the photochemistry of the Antarctic troposphere and relate atmospheric concentrations to deposition rates and sequestration in the polar ice. This paper deals with one aspect of the uncertainty inherent in photochemical models of the high latitude troposphere: that arising from imprecision in the kinetic data used in the calculations. Such uncertainties in Antarctic models tend to be larger than those in models of mid to low latitude clean air. One reason is the lower temperatures which result in increased imprecision in kinetic data, assumed to be best characterized at 298K. Another is the inclusion of a DMS oxidation scheme in the present model. Many of the rates in this scheme are less precisely known than are rates in the standard chemistry used in many stratospheric and tropospheric models.

Stewart, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties: Model-Data and Model-Model Comparisons

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux and dose measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP. LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir space station. This report gives the details of the model-data comparisons -- summary results in terms of empirical model uncertainty factors that can be applied for spacecraft design applications are given in a companion report. The results of model-model comparisons are also presented from standard AP8 and AE8 model predictions compared with the European Space Agency versions of AP8 and AE8 and with Russian trapped radiation models.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effect of Uncertainty of Identified Parameters on Structural Damage Detection

This paper presents a study of the effect of the uncertainty of identified parameters on the damage detection of structure. The identified parameters, which are obtained by applying system identification algorithms to analyze the time-domain response data, have uncertainty due to noise, environmental change, etc. The damage of some structural elements may have less effect on the identified parameters than noise or environmental change, so some damage situations cannot be distinguished under these circumstances. An algorithm is presented to determine whether the considered damage can be distinguished. A twenty-bay truss structure is used to demonstrate and verify the study.

Davidson, Mario↗

NASA NTRS2000

Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties: Model-Data and Model-Model Comparisons

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux and dose measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP, LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir Space Station. This report gives the details of the model-data comparisons-summary results in terms of empirical model uncertainty factors that can be applied for spacecraft design applications are given in a combination report. The results of model-model comparisons are also presented from standard AP8 and AE8 model predictions compared with the European Space Agency versions of AP8 and AE8 and with Russian-trapped radiation models.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Sixth International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations

These proceedings contain contributions from about 200 participants to the 6th International Conference on Squeezed States and Uncertainty Relations (ICSSUR'99) held in Naples May 24-29, 1999, and organized jointly by the University of Naples "Federico II," the University of Maryland at College Park, and the Lebedev Institute, Moscow. This was the sixth of a series of very successful meetings started in 1990 at the College Park Campus of the University of Maryland. The other meetings in the series were held in Moscow (1992), Baltimore (1993), Taiyuan P.R.C. (1995) and Balatonfuered, Hungary (1997). The present one was held at the campus Monte Sant'Angelo of the University "Federico II" of Naples. The meeting sought to provide a forum for updating and reviewing a wide range of quantum optics disciplines, including device developments and applications, and related areas of quantum measurements and quantum noise. Over the years, the ICSSUR Conference evolved from a meeting on quantum measurement sector of quantum optics, to a wide range of quantum optics themes, including multifacet aspects of generation, measurement, and applications of nonclassical light (squeezed and Schrodinger cat radiation fields, etc.), and encompassing several related areas, ranging from quantum measurement to quantum noise. ICSSUR'99 brought together about 250 people active in the field of quantum optics, with special emphasis on nonclassical light sources and related areas. The Conference was organized in 8 Sections: Squeezed states and uncertainty relations; Harmonic oscillators and squeeze transformations; Methods of quantum interference and correlations; Quantum measurements; Generation and characterisation of non-classical light; Quantum noise; Quantum communication and information; and Quantum-like systems.

Han, D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Effect of Discontinuities and Uncertainties on the Response and Failure of Composite Structures

The overall goal of this research was to assess the effect of discontinuities and uncertainties on the nonlinear response and failure of composite structures subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The four key elements of the study were: (1) development of simple and efficient procedures for the accurate determination of transverse shear and transverse normal stresses in structural sandwiches as well as in unstiffened and stiffened composite panels and shells; (2) study the effects of transverse stresses on the response, damage initiation and propagation in composite and sandwich structures; (3) use of hierarchical sensitivity coefficients to identify the major parameters that affect the response and damage in each of the different levels in the hierarchy (micro-mechanical, layer, panel, subcomponent and component levels); and (4) application of fuzzy set techniques to identify the range and variation of possible responses. The computational models developed were used in conjunction with experiments, to understand the physical phenomena associated with the nonlinear response and failure of composite and sandwich structures. A toolkit was developed for use in conjunction with deterministic analysis programs to help the designer in assessing the effect of uncertainties in the different computational model parameters on the variability of the response quantities.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Implications of Simulation Conceptual Model Development for Simulation Management and Uncertainty Assessment

A simulation conceptual model is a simulation developers way of translating modeling requirements (i. e., what is to be represented by the simulation or its modification) into a detailed design framework (i. e., how it is to be done), from which the software, hardware, networks (in the case of distributed simulation), and systems/equipment that will make up the simulation can be built or modified. A conceptual model is the collection of information which describes a simulation developers concept about the simulation and its pieces. That information consists of assumptions, algorithms, characteristics, relationships, and data. Taken together, these describe how the simulation developer understands what is to be represented by the simulation (entities, actions, tasks, processes, interactions, etc.) and how that representation will satisfy the requirements to which the simulation responds. Thus the conceptual model is the basis for judgment about simulation fidelity and validity for any condition that is not specifically tested. The more perspicuous and precise the conceptual model, the more likely it is that the simulation development will both fully satisfy requirements and allow demonstration that the requirements are satisfied (i. e., validation). Methods used in simulation conceptual model development have significant implications for simulation management and for assessment of simulation uncertainty. This paper suggests how to develop and document a simulation conceptual model so that the simulation fidelity and validity can be most effectively determined. These ideas for conceptual model development apply to all simulation varieties. The paper relates these ideas to uncertainty assessments as they relate to simulation fidelity and validity. The paper also explores implications for simulation management from conceptual model development methods, especially relative to reuse of simulation components.

Pace, Dale K.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Needs and Opportunities for Uncertainty-Based Multidisciplinary Design Methods for Aerospace Vehicles

This report consists of a survey of the state of the art in uncertainty-based design together with recommendations for a Base research activity in this area for the NASA Langley Research Center. This report identifies the needs and opportunities for computational and experimental methods that provide accurate, efficient solutions to nondeterministic multidisciplinary aerospace vehicle design problems. Barriers to the adoption of uncertainty-based design methods are identified. and the benefits of the use of such methods are explained. Particular research needs are listed.

Zang, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Credible Software and Simulation Uncertainty

The utility of software primarily depends on its reliability and performance; whereas, its significance depends solely on its credibility for intended use. The credibility of simulations confirms the credibility of software. The level of veracity and the level of validity of simulations determine the degree of credibility of simulations. The process of assessing this credibility in fields such as computational mechanics (CM) differs from that followed by the Defense Modeling and Simulation Office in operations research. Verification and validation (V&V) of CM simulations is not the same as V&V of CM software. Uncertainty is the measure of simulation credibility. Designers who use software are concerned with management of simulation uncertainty. Terminology and concepts are presented with a few examples from computational fluid dynamics.

Mehta, Unmeel B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

System Level Uncertainty Assessment for Collaborative RLV Design

A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.

Charania, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Error Estimation and Uncertainty Propagation in Computational Fluid Mechanics

Numerical simulation has now become an integral part of engineering design process. Critical design decisions are routinely made based on the simulation results and conclusions. Verification and validation of the reliability of the numerical simulation is therefore vitally important in the engineering design processes. We propose to develop theories and methodologies that can automatically provide quantitative information about the reliability of the numerical simulation by estimating numerical approximation error, computational model induced errors and the uncertainties contained in the mathematical models so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be verified and validated. We also propose to develop and implement methodologies and techniques that can control the error and uncertainty during the numerical simulation so that the reliability of the numerical simulation can be improved.

Zhu, J. Z.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainty of Videogrammetric Techniques used for Aerodynamic Testing

The uncertainty of videogrammetric techniques used for the measurement of static aeroelastic wind tunnel model deformation and wind tunnel model pitch angle is discussed. Sensitivity analyses and geometrical considerations of uncertainty are augmented by analyses of experimental data in which videogrammetric angle measurements were taken simultaneously with precision servo accelerometers corrected for dynamics. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) to examine error dependence on angle of attack, sensor used (inertial or optical). and on tunnel state variables such as Mach number is presented. Experimental comparisons with a high-accuracy indexing table are presented. Small roll angles are found to introduce a zero-shift in the measured angles. It is shown experimentally that. provided the proper constraints necessary for a solution are met, a single- camera solution can he comparable to a 2-camera intersection result. The relative immunity of optical techniques to dynamics is illustrated.

Burner, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Design Optimization of Composite Structures under Uncertainty

Design optimization under uncertainty is computationally expensive and is also challenging in terms of alternative formulation. The work under the grant focused on developing methods for design against uncertainty that are applicable to composite structural design with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization, and simultaneous design of structure and inspection periods for fail-safe structures.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Aerospace Applications of Optimization under Uncertainty

The Multidisciplinary Optimization (MDO) Branch at NASA Langley Research Center develops new methods and investigates opportunities for applying optimization to aerospace vehicle design. This paper describes MDO Branch experiences with three applications of optimization under uncertainty: (1) improved impact dynamics for airframes, (2) transonic airfoil optimization for low drag, and (3) coupled aerodynamic/structures optimization of a 3-D wing. For each case, a brief overview of the problem and references to previous publications are provided. The three cases are aerospace examples of the challenges and opportunities presented by optimization under uncertainty. The present paper will illustrate a variety of needs for this technology, summarize promising methods, and uncover fruitful areas for new research.

Padula, Sharon↗