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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,459 records · Page 81
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling a Carrington-Scale Stellar Superflare and Coronal Mass Ejection from K(exp 1) Cet

Observations from the Kepler mission have revealed frequent superflares on young and active solar-like stars. Superflares result from the large-scale restructuring of stellar magnetic fields, and are associated with the eruption of coronal material (a coronal mass ejection, or CME) and energy release that can be orders of magnitude greater than those observed in the largest solar flares. These catastrophic events, if frequent, can significantly impact the potential habitability of terrestrial exoplanets through atmospheric erosion or intense radiation exposure at the surface. We present results from numerical modeling designed to understand how an eruptive superflare from a young solar-type star, κ(exp 1)Cet, could occur and would impact its astrospheric environment. Our data-inspired, three- dimensional magnetohydrodynamic modeling shows that global-scale shear concentrated near the radial-field polarity inversion line can energize the closed-field stellar corona sufficiently to power a global, eruptive superflare that releases approximately the same energy as the extreme 1859 Carrington event from the Sun. We examine proxy measures of synthetic emission during the flare and estimate the observational signatures of our CME-driven shock, both of which could have extreme space-weather impacts on the habitability of any Earth-like exoplanets. We also speculate that the observed 1986 Robinson-Bopp superflare from κ(exp 1)Cet was perhaps as extreme for that star as the Carrington flare was for the Sun.

Lynch, Benjamin J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Situ Scanning Electron Microscope Experiments for Microscale Mechanical Testing and Validated Modeling of Fiber Reinforced Thermoplastics

A novel, in-situ, scanning electron microscope (SEM) mechanical testing capability for materials at the microscale which provides experimental validation to a machine learning (ML) toolset for full-field validation of physics-based micromechanics models is being developed by researchers at NASA Glenn Research Center. These are enabling technologies for the integration of multiscale digital twins for materials into system level models which will result in the improved performance, material discovery, reduced production cost and time, rapid characterization, and prognostic structural health monitoring (SHM) for materials and structures for extreme environments in support of NASA space exploration missions. In order to bridge the material structure-to-system gap for digital twins, physics-based models must be experimentally validated at multiple length scales. Seminal microscale experiments, conducted at the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), were limited to transverse compression of single-layer, unidirectional thermoset polymer matrix composite (PMC) micropillar specimens [1]. The early phases of the current project followed those initial results and setup to reproduce the compression testing of PMC material on the custom-built piezoelectric actuated micromechanical testing rig built by MicroTesting Solutions LLC. In this work, samples of thermoplastic PMC material were first machined into 3 mm cubes, and then further machining and final milling was done using a Focused Ion Beam (FIB). The initial experiment was done on a pillar roughly 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall. Additional pillars were milled with final sizes ranging from 20 µm x 20 µm x 40 µm tall to 40 µm x 40 µm x 65 µm tall. A speckle pattern for in-situ full-field measurements using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) was applied with platinum, which was coated on the surface, and then the FIB was used to mill away some of the coating to produce an irregular pattern of Pt on the pillar surface. The samples were loaded into the custom testing rig and placed into the SEM and loaded under compression until failure. Images were collected in the SEM during testing. Post-processing of the images was conducted using DIC to obtain full-field displacement and strain measurements elucidating the role of the matrix as well as fiber-fiber interaction at the microscale within the composite subjected to compression loading well into the non-linear regime of the material. Moreover, the evolution of fiber-matrix debonding and matrix cracking is observed in-situ at the microscale. This data, along with images segmented with a newly developed ML toolset [2], was used to create and validate physics-based micromechanics models. An image of the failed micropillar is shown in Figure 1. The techniques developed in the initial compression experiment was tailored to the validation needs of the models and expanded to include different sized samples as well as possibly tension and fatigue.

Laura Wilson↗
DOE OSTI2021

How do intermittency and simultaneous processes obfuscate the Arctic influence on midlatitude winter extreme weather events?

Abstract Pronounced changes in the Arctic environment add a new potential driver of anomalous weather patterns in midlatitudes that affect billions of people. Recent studies of these Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages, however, state inconsistent conclusions. A source of uncertainty arises from the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Thermodynamic forcing by a rapidly warming Arctic contributes to weather events through changing surface heat fluxes and large-scale temperature and pressure gradients. But internal shifts in atmospheric dynamics—the variability of the location, strength, and character of the jet stream, blocking, and stratospheric polar vortex (SPV)—obscure the direct causes and effects. It is important to understand these associated processes to differentiate Arctic-forced variability from natural variability. For example in early winter, reduced Barents/Kara Seas sea-ice coverage may reinforce existing atmospheric teleconnections between the North Atlantic/Arctic and central Asia, and affect downstream weather in East Asia. Reduced sea ice in the Chukchi Sea can amplify atmospheric ridging of high pressure near Alaska, influencing downstream weather across North America. In late winter southward displacement of the SPV, coupled to the troposphere, leads to weather extremes in Eurasia and North America. Combined tropical and sea ice conditions can modulate the variability of the SPV. Observational evidence for Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages continues to accumulate, along with understanding of connections with pre-existing climate states. Relative to natural atmospheric variability, sea-ice loss alone has played a secondary role in Arctic/midlatitude weather linkages; the full influence of Arctic amplification remains uncertain.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Metabolic engineering of Caldicellulosiruptor bescii for 2,3-butanediol production from unpretreated lignocellulosic biomass and metabolic strategies for improving yields and titers

ABSTRACT The platform chemical 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is used to derive products, such as 1,3-butadiene and methyl ethyl ketone, for the chemical and fuel production industries. Efficient microbial 2,3-BDO production at industrial scales has not been achieved yet for various reasons, including product inhibition to host organisms, mixed stereospecificity in product formation, and dependence on expensive substrates (i.e., glucose). In this study, we explore engineering of a 2,3-BDO pathway inCaldicellulosiruptor bescii, an extremely thermophilic (optimal growth temperature = 78°C) and anaerobic bacterium that can break down crystalline cellulose and hemicellulose into fermentable C 5 and C 6 sugars. In addition, C. besciigrows on unpretreated plant biomass, such as switchgrass. Biosynthesis of 2,3-BDO involves three steps: two molecules of pyruvate are condensed into acetolactate; acetolactate is decarboxylated to acetoin, and finally, acetoin is reduced to 2,3-BDO.C. besciinatively produces acetoin; therefore, in order to complete the 2,3-BDO biosynthetic pathway,C. besciiwas engineered to produce a secondary alcohol dehydrogenase (sADH) to catalyze the final step. Two previously characterized, thermostable sADH enzymes with high affinity for acetoin, one from a bacterium and one from an archaeon, were tested independently. When either sADH was present inC. bescii,the recombinant strains were able to produce up to 2.5-mM 2,3-BDO from crystalline cellulose and xylan and 0.2-mM 2,3-BDO directly from unpretreated switchgrass. This serves as the basis for higher yields and productivities, and to this end, limiting factors and potential genetic targets for further optimization were assessed using the genome-scale metabolic model ofC. bescii. IMPORTANCE Lignocellulosic plant biomass as the substrate for microbial synthesis of 2,3-butanediol is one of the major keys toward cost-effective bio-based production of this chemical at an industrial scale. However, deconstruction of biomass to release the sugars for microbial growth currently requires expensive thermochemical and enzymatic pretreatments. In this study, the thermo-cellulolytic bacteriumCaldicellulosiruptor besciiwas successfully engineered to produce 2,3-butanediol from cellulose, xylan, and directly from unpretreated switchgrass. Genome-scale metabolic modeling ofC. besciiwas applied to adjust carbon and redox fluxes to maximize productivity of 2,3-butanediol, thereby revealing bottlenecks that require genetic modifications.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Size effect in stainless steel thin wires under tension

Miniaturization of modern devices drives the exploration into how materials behave in small dimensions. However, the mechanical behaviors of micro-scale specimens under varied loading conditions are still challenging to characterize and predict. In this work, specimen size-dependent weakening effect was experimentally revealed in 316L stainless steel thin wires under tension with wire diameter decreasing from 200 μm down to 61 μm. The underlying mechanisms were primarily associated with surface grain softening and strain localization, which were largely dependent on the number of grains across wire diameter. Through an analog composite model with surface and interior grains that follows the Hall-Petch relation, the extent of surface grain softening was found to coincide with the flow stress reduction due to lack of boundary strengthening. Further using elasto-plastic self-consistent polycrystal modeling, the stress-strain behaviors of interior and surface grains were well described in analogy to those of bulk materials with similar-size grains and extremely large grains, respectively. Subsequently, the analog composite model well simulated the specimen size-dependent weakening effect under tension. This article provided more insights into the size effect exploration and proposed a practical model for describing size-dependent mechanical behaviors of small-scale materials to be applied to miniaturized devices.

316L stainless steel↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Climate Signal in Regional Moisture Fluxes: A Comparison of Three Global Data Assimilation Products

This study assesses the quality of estimates of climate variability in moisture flux and convergence from three assimilated data sets: two are reanalysis products generated at the Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (NCEPJNCAR), and the third consists of the operational analyses generated at the European Center for Medium Range Forecasts (ECMWF). The regions under study (the United States Great Plains, the Indian monsoon region, and Argentina east of the Andes) are characterized by frequent low level jets (LLJs) and other interannual low level wind variations tied to the large-scale flow. While the emphasis is on the reanalysis products, the comparison with the operational product is provided to help assess the improvements gained from a fixed analysis system. All three analyses capture the main moisture flux anomalies associated with selected extreme climate (drought and flood) events during the period 1985-93. The correspondence is strongest over the Great Plains and weakest over the Indian monsoon region reflecting differences in the observational coverage. For the reanalysis products, the uncertainties in the lower tropospheric winds is by far the dominant source of the discrepancies in the moisture flux anomalies in the middle latitude regions. Only in the Indian Monsoon region, where interannual variability in the low level winds is comparatively small, does the moisture bias play a substantial role. In contrast, the comparisons with the operational product show differences in moisture which are comparable torhe differences in the wind in all three regions. Compared with the fluxes, the anomalous moisture convergences show substantially larger differences among the three products. The best agreement occurs over the Great Plains region where all three products show vertically-integrated moisture convergence during the floods and divergence during the drought with differences in magnitude of about 25%. The reanalysis products, in particular, show good agreement in depicting the different roles of the mean flow and transients during the flood and drought periods. Differences between the three products in the other two regions exceed 100% reflecting differences in the low level jets and the large scale circulation patterns. The operational product tends to have locally larger amplitude convergence fields which average out in area-mean budgets: this appears to be at least in part due to errors in the surface pressure fields and aliasing from the higher resolution of the original ECMWF fields. On average, the reanalysis products show higher coherence with each other than with the operational product in the estimates of interannual variability. This result is less clear in the Indian monsoon region where differences in the input observations appears to be an important factor. The agreement in the anomalous convergence patterns is, however, still rather poor even over relatively data dense regions such as the United States Great Plains. These differences are attributed to deficiencies in the assimilating GCM's representations of the planetary boundary layer and orography, and a global observing system incapable of resolving the highly confined low level winds associated with the climate anomalies.

Min, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Climate-Resilient Infrastructure Design: Advances and Opportunities

National and international security communities (e.g., U.S. Department of Defense) have shown increasing attention for innovating critical infrastructure and installations due to recurring high-profile flooding events in recent years. The standard infrastructure design approach relies on local precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (PREC-IDF) curves that do not account for snow process and assume stationary climate, leading to high failure risk and increased maintenance costs. This paper reviews the recently developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that explicitly account for the mechanisms of extreme water available for runoff including rainfall, snowmelt, and rain-on-snow under nonstationary climate. The NG-IDF curve is an enhancement to the PREC-IDF curve and provides a consistent design approach across rain- to snow-dominated regions, which can benefit engineers and planners responsible for designing climate-resilient facilities, federal emergency agencies responsible for the flood insurance program, and local jurisdictions responsible for developing design manuals and approving subsequent infrastructure designs. Further, we discuss the recent advances in climate and hydrologic science communities that have not been translated into actional information in the engineering community. To bridge the gap, we advocate that building climate-resilient infrastructure goes beyond the traditional local design scale where engineers rely on recipe-based methods only; the future hydrologic design is a multi-scale problem and requires closer collaboration between climate scientists, hydrologists, and civil engineers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Collapse of helium-filled voids in extreme deformation: Dislocation mechanisms

The mechanisms responsible for the collapse of helium-filled bubbles during the passage of shock waves in monocrystalline copper are revealed. Both internal pressure (caused by pre-existing helium atoms) and bubble size are varied in molecular dynamics simulations to understand the atomistic scale deformation as they are subjected to shock compression at pressures of 48, 123, and 170 GPa, corresponding to particle velocities of 1.0, 2.0, and 2.5 km/s. Both empty and helium filled bubbles serve as dislocation sources, generating intense, localized plastic regions. There are distinct differences in the collapse of empty voids compared to He-filled bubbles, the former requiring less stress and generating a greater density of dislocations for a given shock strength. Additionally, a generalized model for dislocation emission is proposed, where the inclusion of shear stress generated by the helium bubble increases the critical stress to generate dislocations at the defect surface, demonstrating the change in plastic deformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Global Climate on Freshwater Changes in Africa’s Largest Endorheic Basin Using Multi-Scaled Indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated spaceborne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa’s largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r = 0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r = 0.2 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r = 0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r = 0.85), model TWS (r = 0.87) and SWS (r = 0.88) confirm that the LCB’s hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.95 at = 0.05) with observed SWS.

Sentinel-2↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2011

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the. diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of 200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2022

One‐Step Thermal Gradient‐ and Antisolvent‐Free Crystallization of All‐Inorganic Perovskites for Highly Efficient and Thermally Stable Solar Cells

Abstract All‐inorganic perovskites have emerged as promising photovoltaic materials due to their superior thermal stability compared to their heat‐sensitive hybrid organic–inorganic counterparts. In particular, CsPbI 2 Br shows the highest potential for developing thermally‐stable perovskite solar cells (PSCs) among all‐inorganic compositions. However, controlling the crystallinity and morphology of all‐inorganic compositions is a significant challenge. Here, a simple, thermal gradient‐ and antisolvent‐free method is reported to control the crystallization of CsPbI 2 Br films. Optical in situ characterization is used to investigate the dynamic film formation during spin‐coating and annealing to understand and optimize the evolving film properties. This leads to high‐quality perovskite films with micrometer‐scale grain sizes with a noteworthy performance of 17% (≈16% stabilized), fill factor (FF) of 80.5%, and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) of 1.27 V. Moreover, excellent phase and thermal stability are demonstrated even after extreme thermal stressing at 300 °C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bi‐Continuous W‐Rich Refractory High Entropy Alloy‐Cu Composite: Toward Material Innovation of Nuclear Reactor Coolant System

Abstract Refractory high‐entropy alloys (RHEAs) are considered promising candidate materials for next‐generation nuclear reactors due to their superior mechanical strength, irradiation resistance, and thermal stability at high temperatures. However, the significant positive heat of mixing between refractory alloying elements and Cu, commonly used in cooling systems, poses challenges in forming composite structures. This study addresses the issue using a liquid metal dealloying (LMD) process. A precursor alloy (WTaVTi) with a directional dendrite‐interdendrite structure is fabricated and reacted with molten Cu at 1200 °C for 96 h. This approach produced a RHEA‐Cu composite with a stable interface between RHEA (W 31.5 Ta 30.9 V 21.4 Ti 14.3 ) and Cu, featuring a spontaneously formed W‐rich interlayer that enhances interfacial bonding. The composite showed excellent irradiation resistance, with 30% less swelling under α‐ion irradiation than pure W. It also exhibited low thermal conductivity at room temperature, but reached ≈120 W m −1 ·K −1 at ≈650 °C, surpassing pure W. This temperature‐dependent rise in κ, with a positive gradient of +0.075 W m −1 ·K − 2 , is attributed to decreasing diffuse mismatch at elevated temperatures. The large‐scale reaction and stable microstructure achieved through LMD process highlight its industrial potential. This work offers a strategy for developing high‐performance materials by combining RHEA's radiation resistance with Cu's thermal conductivity for extreme environments.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heavy long-lived dark vector via a gluonic portal

We study a dark gauge boson Z′ that exclusively couples to the QCD gluons through higher dimensional operators. These operators are generated from integrating out of heavy ultraviolet resonances carrying both QCD and dark gauge charges. With SU(3)C gauge invariance, charge and parity symmetries preserved, we find that the leading effective operators are restricted to have the form of Z′GGG and Z′Z′GG at dimension-eight, which can naturally render the Z′ particle long-lived, and serve as a viable dark matter candidate. We investigate the phenomenology of these operators with both collider experiments and cosmological observation, without and with the assumption that this dark gauge boson plays the role of the dominant dark matter component. For an unstable Z′, we show that depending on its lifetime, it can be probed by various observables up to ultraviolet physics scale around 10 9 GeV. For Z′ being dark matter, we find that $m_{Z'}$ ≳ 1 TeV is consistent with the thermal freeze-out scenario. In contrast, in the freeze-in scenario, the extremely small couplings leave the relevant parameter space largely unconstrained by current experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

High purity 47 Sc production using high-energy photons and natural vanadium targets

We report Scandium-47 ( 47 Sc) is of high value for targeted radiotherapy and theranostics; we report a novel, cost-effective approach to produce extremely high-purity 47 Sc via photonuclear irradiation of natural vanadium. Irradiations at bremsstrahlung end-point energies below 26 and at 38 MeV produce > 99.99% and 98.8 ± 3.1% pure 47 Sc (respectively). Linear scaling of experimental data suggests producing 100+ mCi quantities of 47 Sc may be feasible via this approach. Future research into refinement and scale-up to support pre-clinical and clinical research with this production pathway is recommended.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Unveiling four decades of intensifying precipitation from tropical cyclones using satellite measurements

Increases in precipitation rates and volumes from tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by anthropogenic warming are predicted by climate modeling studies and have been identified in several high intensity storms occurring over the last half decade. However, it has been difficult to detect historical trends in TC precipitation at time scales long enough to overcome natural climate variability because of limitations in existing precipitation observations. We introduce an experimental global high-resolution climate data record of precipitation produced using infrared satellite imagery and corrected at the monthly scale by a gauge-derived product that shows generally good performance during two hurricane case studies but estimates higher mean precipitation rates in the tropics than the evaluation datasets. General increases in mean and extreme rainfall rates during the study period of 1980–2019 are identified, culminating in a 12–18%/40-year increase in global rainfall rates. Overall, all basins have experienced intensification in precipitation rates. Increases in rainfall rates have boosted the mean precipitation volume of global TCs by 7–15% over 40 years, with the starkest rises seen in the North Atlantic, South Indian, and South Pacific basins (maximum 59–64% over 40 years). In terms of inland rainfall totals, year-by-year trends are generally positive due to increasing TC frequency, slower decay over land, and more intense rainfall, with an alarming increase of 81–85% seen from the strongest global TCs. As the global trend in precipitation rates follows expectations from warming sea surface temperatures (11.1%/°C), we hypothesize that the observed trends could be a result of anthropogenic warming creating greater concentrations of water vapor in the atmosphere, though retrospective studies of TC dynamics over the period are needed to confirm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗