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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The Future of Supercells in the United States

A supercell is a distinct type of intense, long-lived thunderstorm that is defined by its quasi-steady, rotating updraft. Supercells are responsible for most damaging hail and deadly tornadoes, causing billions of dollars in losses and hundreds of casualties annually. This research uses high-resolution, convection-permitting climate simulations across 15-yr epochs that span the twenty-first century to assess how supercells may change across the United States. Specifically, the study explores how late-twentieth-century supercell populations compare with their late-twenty-first-century counterparts for two—intermediate and pessimistic—anthropogenic climate change trajectories. An algorithm identifies, segments, and tracks supercells in the simulation output using updraft helicity, which measures the magnitude of corkscrew flow through a storm’s updraft and is a common proxy for supercells. Results reveal that supercells will be more frequent and intense in future climates, with robust spatiotemporal shifts in their populations. Supercells are projected to become more numerous in regions of the eastern United States, while decreasing in frequency in portions of the Great Plains. Supercell risk is expected to escalate outside of the traditional severe storm season, with supercells and their perils likely to increase in late winter and early spring months under both emissions scenarios. Conversely, the latter part of the severe storm season may be curtailed, with supercells expected to decrease midsummer through early fall. These results suggest the potential for more significant tornadoes, hail, and extreme rainfall that, when combined with an increasingly vulnerable society, may produce disastrous consequences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Common femtoscopic hadron-emission source in pp collisions at the LHC

The femtoscopic study of pairs of identical pions is particularly suited to investigate the effective source function of particle emission, due to the resulting Bose–Einstein correlation signal. In small collision systems at the LHC, pp in particular, the majority of the pions are produced in resonance decays, which significantly affect the profile and size of the source. In this work, we explicitly model this effect in order to extract the primordial source in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV from charged π–π correlations measured by ALICE. We demonstrate that the assumption of a Gaussian primordial source is compatible with the data and that the effective source, resulting from modifications due to resonances, is approximately exponential, as found in previous measurements at the LHC. The universality of hadron emission in pp collisions is further investigated by applying the same methodology to characterize the primordial source of K–p pairs. The size of the primordial source is evaluated as a function of the transverse mass (m T ) of the pairs, leading to the observation of a common scaling for both π–π and K–p, suggesting a collective effect. Further, the present results are compatible with the m T scaling of the p–p and p–Λ primordial source measured by ALICE in high multiplicity pp collisions, providing additional evidence for the presence of a common emission source for all hadrons in small collision systems at the LHC. This will allow the determination of the source function for any hadron–hadron pairs with high precision, granting access to the properties of the possible final-state interaction among pairs of less abundantly produced hadrons, such as strange or charmed particles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Closing the Loops on Solar Photovoltaics Modules: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Study of Circular Economy Strategies

Solar photovoltaics (PV) installed capacity have grown exponentially since the early 2000s (average annual growth rate of 50%). With 4,700 GW projected installed capacity by 2050, the volume of PV panels waste is also expected to become substantial. Though renewables are a sine qua non to the establishment of a truly circular economy (CE), the issue arising from their end-of-life management needs to be resolved. The management of PV end-of-life also represent a singular opportunity to create value, from recovered valuable, rare or critical materials (e.g. silver, tellurium, indium). Moreover, the PV case illustrates some of the current barriers to CE; for instance, the need for a common definition of waste (PV are defined as e-waste in the European Union but as general waste in the United States) and potential loss of innovations' advantages (PV average efficiency has continuously grown the past 10 years). In this study, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to simulate PV end-of-life management in the United States. The model explores how the decisions of the various actors involved in handling PV waste affect the quantities of PV that are reused, recycled, or land-filled. In the model, manufacturers, residential, and nonresidential PV owners, installers, and recyclers are represented by agents while governmental policies and regulations are treated as exogenous variables. PV-market data are used to define agents' characteristics (e.g., installed PV capacities or producing costs). Agents' decision rules draw on the literature related to industrial symbiosis (IS) and peoples' waste behaviors as they appear as the most widely used model to implement CE principles at a meso level. Specifically, the concepts of mutual trust between IS actors and knowledge about the IS philosophy are yielded to define the agents' decision process. The primary outputs of the ABM are the costs and volume of waste associated with each end-of-life pathway. Preliminaries results indicate recycling of residential PV is affected by the cost, perceived difficulty of recycling behaviors, and social norms. Moreover, the type of network connecting agents and the initial recycling rate strongly influence results. The model also highlights the crucial role of recycling behavior adoption: in case of early failure of PV, recycled volumes increase by about 40%. This represents an additional 5.7 billion USD from potential recovered silver. Finally, although results for the PV case are presented here, the developed ABM aims at being a general tool for the study of CE strategies and the CE transition. Furthermore, steps of this research include extending the model to encompass circular economy strategies (e.g., design for recycling or lifetime extension) and validating its general architecture from various case studies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible Siting Criteria and Staff Minimization for Micro-Reactors

The economic potential of micro-reactors is vast and underestimated. Commonly-emphasized applications include niche markets such as remote communities, mines and military bases. However, micro-reactors could be used as flexible energy generators also for larger markets, such as mobile and containerized agriculture and manufacturing facilities, district heating, micro-grids for data centers, sea ports, airports and hospitals. The implication is that micro-reactors may have to be deployed also in non-remote locations. Successful implementation of micro-reactors needs a navigable and predictable licensing process, technology-appropriate siting restrictions, risk-informed emergency and safety requirements, and practical operating and maintenance requirements. The primary goal of this project was to develop siting criteria that are tailored to micro-reactors deployable in densely-populated areas, e.g., urban environments. To achieve that goal, we compared the characteristics of the MIT research reactor (MITR) with those of leading micro-reactor concepts (e.g., eVinci, USNC, Aurora), and evaluated whether and how the MITR design basis (e.g., inherent safety features, engineered safety systems, source term, emergency planning and emergency operating procedures) and associated regulations may be applicable to these new micro-reactors as well. What makes MITR a unique analogue in this context is its small power rating (6 MWt) and physical size, mode of operations (24/7 with a somewhat more commercial flavor than typical university reactors), and especially its urban location. Of course significant differences exist, such as mission (power production vs. research) and the reactor design itself. Leveraging the MITR experience, this project was able to generate criteria that will allow micro-reactors to realize their full economic potential as flexible heat and electricity generators for a diverse portfolio of applications in non-remote locations. As such, the outcome of this project might encourage investment in and use of micro-reactors. A second goal of the project was to conceptualize a model of operations for micro-reactors that would minimize the staffing requirements, and thus reduce the cost of electricity and heat generated by these systems. Here too our approach was to systematically review the MITR experience and requirements, as well as survey the innovations in autonomous control technologies and monitoring (e.g., advanced sensors, drones, robotics, AI) that would permit a dramatic reduction in staffing at future micro-reactor installations. The scope of work was expanded after the start date to include also an evaluation of micro-reactor security, using the so-called consequence-based analysis, and the development of a methodology to perform dynamic risk assessment for micro-reactors, using system theory and modeling and simulation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2024

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Beyond green with synthetic chlorophylls – Connecting structural features with spectral properties

The distinct features of chlorophylls in photosynthesis have led to the formation of numerous derivatives for applications encompassing solar energy conversion, molecular photonics, photodynamic therapy, and molecular imaging. Synthetic chlorins created de novo and bearing a geminal dimethyl group in the reduced ring have proved invaluable for fundamental studies. Four decades of research have led to accumulation of tabulated spectra for > 400 such synthetic chlorins with distinct structural frameworks (17-oxochlorins, 13 1 -oxophorbines, chlorinimides) and substituents (alkyl, aryl, ethynyl, phenylethynyl, acetyl, formyl) located at specific (meso, β) positions. In this review, spectral traces (324 absorption, 247 fluorescence) are assembled along with photophysical data including the molar absorption coefficient (ε), fluorescence quantum yield (Φ f ) and singlet excited-state lifetime (τ s ). The review uses the accumulated spectral data derived from chlorins all containing a uniform molecular scaffold to (1) highlight the effects of molecular structure on spectral features, and (2) identify trends including how ε, Φ f and τ s vary with wavelength and other features. Use of a common geminal-dimethyl-substituted chlorin scaffold – beginning with no substituents, to one substituent at designated sites, and to 2 or more substituents – provides a systematic Aufbau approach for understanding the absorption spectra of chlorins on a path to and beyond the native chlorophylls. Finally, the review provides insights concerning the rational design of potent analogues of Nature’s preeminent red-region absorbers for potential utilization in diverse applications and is aimed at multiple audiences: those interested in spectral properties, tetrapyrrole photophysics, and the molecular design of new chromophores.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning identifies novel signatures of antifungal drug resistance in Saccharomycotina yeasts

Antifungal drug resistance is a major challenge in fungal infection management. Numerous genomic changes are known to contribute to acquired drug resistance in clinical isolates of specific pathogens, but whether they broadly explain natural resistance across entire lineages is unknown. We leveraged genomic, ecological, and phenotypic trait data from naturally sampled strains from nearly all known species in subphylum Saccharomycotina to examine the evolution of resistance to eight antifungal drugs. The phylogenetic distribution of drug resistance varied by drug; fluconazole resistance was widespread, while 5-fluorocytosine resistance was rare, except in Lipomycetales. A random forest algorithm trained on genomic data predicted drug-resistant yeasts with 54–75% accuracy. Fluconazole resistance was consistently predicted with the highest accuracy (75.2%). Furthermore, fluconazole resistance prediction accuracy was similar between models trained on genome-wide variation in the presence and number of InterPro protein annotations across Saccharomycotina (75.2%) and those trained on amino acid sequence alignment data of Erg11, a protein known to be involved in fluconazole resistance (74.3-74.9%). Interestingly, the top Erg11 residues for predicting fluconazole resistance across Saccharomycotina do not overlap with, are not spatially close to, and are less conserved than those previously linked to resistance in clinical isolates of Candida albicans. In silico deep mutational scanning of the C. albicans Erg11 protein reveals that amino acid variants implicated in clinical cases of resistance are almost universally destabilizing while variants in our most informative residues are energetically more neutral, explaining why the latter are much more common than the former in natural populations. Importantly, previous experimental analyses of C. albicans Erg11 have shown that amino acid variation in our most informative residues, despite having never been directly implicated in clinical cases, can directly contribute to resistance. Our results suggest that studies of natural resistance in yeast species never encountered in the clinic will yield a fuller understanding of antifungal drug resistance.

Harrison, Marie-Claire [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashvill↗
NASA NTRS2007

Science Archives in the 21st Century: A NASA LAMBDA Report

Lambda is a thematic data center that focuses on serving the cosmic microwave background (CMB) research community. LAMBDA is an active archive for NASA's Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission data sets. In addition, LAMBDA provides analysis software, on-line tools, relevant ancillary data and important web links. LAMBDA also tries to preserve the most important ground-based and suborbital CMB data sets. CMB data is unlike other astrophysical data, consisting of intrinsically diffuse surface brightness photometry with a signal contrast of the order 1 part in 100,000 relative to the uniform background. Because of the extremely faint signal levels, the signal-to-noise ratio is relatively low and detailed instrument-specific knowledge of the data is essential. While the number of data sets being produced is not especially large, those data sets are becoming large and complex. That tendency will increase when the many polarization experiments currently being deployed begin producing data. The LAMBDA experience supports many aspects of the NASA data archive model developed informally over the last ten years-that small focused data centers are often more effective than larger more ambitious collections, for example; that data centers are usually best run by active scientists; that it can be particularly advantageous if those scientists are leaders in the use of the archived data sets; etc. LAMBDA has done some things so well that they might provide lessons for other archives. A lot of effort has been devoted to developing a simple and consistent interface to data sets, for example; and serving all the documentation required via simple 'more' pages and longer explanatory supplements. Many of the problems faced by LAMBDA will also not surprise anyone trying to manage other space science data. These range from persuading mission scientists to provide their data as quickly as possible, to dealing with a high volume of nuisance (spam) messages. Because so many data center problems and solutions are common across individual data centers and disciplines it would be very valuable to establish some new systems of communication - such as informal email lists for administrators and developers. But resources are very limited, so new timeconsuming and inefficient mechanisms - like too-frequent and too-structured meetingsshould be avoided. Although there are great advantages to being small, agile and independent, there are also some areas where science data centers within and without NASA could be better coordinated - for the assignment of persistent identifiers; to encourage the early adoption of useful standards and technologies; etc. Some super-structure to facilitate such coordination might be beneficial as long as it doesn't begin to control the other work of the archives, and become a "methodology police". In this respect the CCSDS "Reference Model for an Open Archive Information System" is a little worrying. It may be that the closer a data center gets to following such a detailed prescription, the less effective it will become. It is much better to have an informal coordination process than a bureaucratic straight-jacket.

Butterworth, P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Production System Scaling Using a High-Fidelity Simulation-Optimization Framework

Proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers are widely used for hydrogen production, yet few validated, high-fidelity tools can reliably guide scale-up. Using measured performance from a 50-hour hardware-in-the-loop pilot test, a physics-based, plant-level model of a 1.25 MW PEM electrolyzer and its balance-of-plant (BoP) subsystems is developed and validated. The model couples electrochemistry and thermal/flow submodels and is calibrated against pilot test data via a genetic algorithm (GA) workflow. Validation yields a mean absolute percentage error (APE) of 0.43% for cell voltage and stack power. Two scale-out strategies are then benchmarked under a common 7-day wind-and-photovoltaic (PV) profile: (i) linear duplication of 1.25 MW blocks and (ii) shared-BoP architectures. Sharing BoP between stacks reduces BoP energy by 27% at 10 MW and 34% at 100 MW (vs. linear duplication) and improves system specific energy consumption (SEC) to 52.9 and 52.6 kWh/kg, respectively (from 54.0 kWh/kg with linear duplication). Partial-load studies (25-100% set-point) show that cumulative hydrogen production remains nearly constant down to 50% load because all cases use the same weekly renewable-energy input. Below 50%, the power cap limits how much energy can be used within 168 h, which reduces hydrogen output. The model further indicates that the practical operating optimum lies between 50% and 85% load, where efficiency gains begin to appear without significant loss in hydrogen output. Moreover, the efficiency gains at lower loads are offset by reduced production. The validated framework supports scenario-based engineering trade-off studies for large configurations (10-100 MW) and for operating policies under variable renewables.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2004

Computing and combustion

Coming into the Combustion Branch of the Turbomachinery and Propulsion Systems Division, there was not any set project planned out for me to work on. This was understandable, considering I am only at my sophmore year in college. Also, my mentor was a division chief and it was expected that I would be passed down the line. It took about a week for me to be placed with somebody who could use me. My first project was to write a macro for TecPlot. Commonly, a person would have a 3D contour volume modeling something such as a combustion engine. This 3D volume needed to have slices extracted from it and made into 2D scientific plots with all of the appropriate axis and titles. This was very tedious to do by hand. My macro needed to automate the process. There was some education I needed before I could start, however. First, TecPlot ran on Unix and Linux, like a growing majority of scientific applications. I knew a little about Linux, but I would need to know more to use the software at hand. I took two classes at the Learning Center on Unix and am now comfortable with Linux and Unix. I already had taken Computer Science I and II, and had undergone the transformation from Computer Programmer to Procedural Epistemologist. I knew how to design efficient algorithms, I just needed to learn the macro language. After a little less than a week, I had learned the basics of the language. Like most languages, the best way to learn more of it was by using it. It was decided that it was best that I do the macro in layers, starting simple and adding features as I went. The macro started out slicing with respect to only one axis, and did not make 2D plots out of the slices. Instead, it lined them up inside the solid. Next, I allowed for more than one axis and placed each slice in a separate frame. After this, I added code that transformed each individual slice-frame into a scientific plot. I also made frames for composite volumes, which showed all of the slices in the same XYZ space. I then designed an addition companion macro that exported each frame into its own image file. I then distributed the macros to a test group, and am awaiting feedback. In the meantime, a am researching the possible applications of distributed computing on the National Combustor Code. Many of our Linux boxes were idle for most of the day. The department thinks that it would be wonderful if we could get all of these idle processors to work on a problem under the NCC code. The client software would have to be easily distributed, such as in screensaver format or as a program that only ran when the computer was not in use. This project proves to be an interesting challenge.

Thompson, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCEC/USGS Community Stress-Drop Validation Study: How Spectral Fitting Approaches Influence Measured Source Parameters

Spectral source parameters used to estimate an earthquake’s stress drop (⁠Δσ⁠) can vary significantly across measurement approaches. The Statewide California Earthquake Center/U.S. Geological Survey Community Stress‐Drop Validation Study was initiated to compare source parameter estimates, focusing initially on a dataset from the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence. As part of that validation effort, here we focus on one potential source of uncertainty: whether spectral fitting approaches alone, applied to a common set of spectra from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence result in different source parameter estimates. By using a common set of benchmark spectra analyzed across a consistent frequency band of 1–40 Hz, we eliminate many sources of variability. A subgroup of validation study participants volunteered to estimate the low‐frequency displacement (⁠Ω 0 ⁠) and corner frequency (⁠ƒ c ⁠) by fitting a smooth function to benchmark displacement spectra. Participants used linear‐ or log‐sampled spectra, assumed a Brune or Boatwright spectral model, and applied different misfit criteria. We compare 17 approaches used to estimate ⁠Ω 0 ⁠, ƒ c ⁠, and Δσ for 54 earthquake spectra. Our results reveal that 35% of events have Δσ estimates within a factor of two, whereas others exhibit variations exceeding an order of magnitude. The variability in and can largely be attributed to whether a spectrum is consistent with the smooth function of an idealized simple crack model. The trade‐off between Ω 0 and ƒ c may be more pronounced when using linearly sampled spectra, as higher frequency spectral bumps control the fits. As expected, methods that assumed a Boatwright model tended to have lower Ω 0 and somewhat higher ƒ c compared to those assuming a Brune model, although resulting Δσ estimates are similar. Finally, when compared to the overall validation study results, the fitting approach alone may account for between 5% and 90% (25% on average) of the total variability in spectral Δσ⁠.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
NASA NTRS2011

A Piezoelectric PZT Ceramic Mulitlayer Stack for Energy Harvesting Under Dynamic Forces

Piezoelectric energy harvesting transducers (PEHTs) are commonly used in motion/vibration energy scavenging devices. To date, most researchers have focused on energy harvesting at narrow bandwidths around the mechanical resonance frequency, and most piezoelectric harvesting devices reported in the literature have very low effective piezoelectric coefficient (d(sub eff)) (< 10(exp 4) pC/N). For instance, more than 80% of PEHT related papers are on transverse "31" mode cantilever beam type PEHTs (CBPEHTs) having piezoelectric coefficients of about 100 pC/N. The level of harvested electrical power for CBPEHTs is on the order of microW even at resonance mode. In order to harvest more electrical energy across broader bandwidth, high effective piezoelectric coefficient structures are needed. In this study, we investigate a "33" longitudinal mode, piezoelectric PZT ceramic multilayer stack (PZT-Stack) with high effective piezoelectric coefficient for high-performance PEHTs. The PZT-Stack is composed of 300 layers of 0.1 mm thick PZT plates, with overall dimensions of 32.4 mm X 7.0 mm X 7.0 mm. Experiments were carried out with dynamic forces in a broad bandwidth ranging from 0.5 Hz to 25 kHz. The measured results show that the effective piezoelectric coefficient of the PZT-stack is about 1 X 10(exp 5) pC/N at off-resonance frequencies and 1.39 X 10(exp 6) pC/N at resonance, which is order of magnitude larger than that of traditional PEHTs. The effective piezoelectric coefficients (d(sub eff)) do not change significantly with applied dynamic forces having root mean square (RMS) values ranging from 1 N to 40 N. In resonance mode, 231 mW of electrical power was harvested at 2479 Hz with a dynamic force of 11.6 N(sub rms), and 7.6 mW of electrical power was generated at a frequency of 2114 Hz with 1 N(sub rms) dynamic force. In off-resonance mode, an electrical power of 18.7 mW was obtained at 680 Hz with a 40 N(sub rms) dynamic force. A theoretical model of energy harvesting for the PZT-Stack is established. The modeled results matched well with experimental measurements. This study demonstrated that high effective piezoelectric coefficient structures enable PEHTs to harvest more electrical energy from mechanical vibrations or motions, suggesting an effective design for high-performance low-footprint PEHTs with potential applications in military, aerospace, and portable electronics. In addition, this study provides a route for using piezoelectric multilayer stacks for active or semi-active adaptive control to damp, harvest or transform unwanted dynamic vibrations into useful electrical energy.

Xu, Tian-Bing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities for bioenergy crops to support transitions from irrigated agriculture and conserve the U.S. High Plains Aquifer

This study investigates potential economic and groundwater driven transitions from irrigated maize production—the dominant irrigated cropping system in the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) region—to alternative crops such as sorghum and switchgrass, two common bioenergy feedstocks. Unsustainable groundwater extraction in the U.S. High Plains presents critical challenges including reduced irrigation capacities, diminished crop yields, lower land values, and escalating energy costs. Using a spatially explicit optimization framework combined with comprehensive economic and hydrogeological data, we evaluate optimal land-use strategies and irrigation system investments over a 30-year planning period. Results indicate significant regional variability in the future economic viability of irrigated agriculture, driven by differences in aquifer recharge rates, groundwater availability, and market conditions. Nebraska and parts of northern Texas can sustain irrigated maize profitability due to relatively favorable groundwater conditions and lower land rents, respectively. In contrast, many portions of Kansas and southern Texas are more likely to transition to dryland agriculture within two decades. Colorado and New Mexico show potential for significant adoption of switchgrass production as an alternative biomass-based energy crop. Overall, over the 30-year horizon, our model implies that approximately 23% of currently irrigated maize area across the HPA region may transition to dryland farming under business-as-usual conditions. This transition is complemented by a threefold increase in non-irrigated sorghum production, from 0.20 to 0.77 Mt yr−1, indicating that groundwater-driven shifts in agricultural production may support a larger regional base for bioenergy feedstocks. The study also reveals opportunities for producers to optimize economic returns and biomass production potential.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

On hybrid scenarios in KSTAR

We report the status of hybrid scenario experiments in Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR). The hybrid scenario is defined as stationary discharges with ${\beta _{\rm{N}}}$ $ \geqslant $ 2.4 and ${H_{89}}$ $ \geqslant $ 2.0 at ${q_{95}}$ < 6.5 without or with very mild sawtooth activities in KSTAR. It is being developed towards reactor-relevant conditions. High performance of ${\beta _{\rm{N}}} \lesssim 3.0$, ${H_{89}} \lesssim 2.4$ and G-factor ($ \equiv {\beta _{\rm{N}}}{H_{89}}/q_{95}^2$) $ \lesssim 0.4$6 has been achieved and sustained for $ \gtrsim 40{{\tau }_{\text{E}}}$ at ne/nGW ~ 0.7 with heating power of $ \lesssim $5 MW. Some KSTAR hybrid discharges exhibit a unique feature of a slow transition from conventional H-mode to hybrid mode after the third neutral beam injection. The reason for the confinement enhancement is extensively studied in this transition period of a representative discharge exhibiting a common feature of KSTAR hybrid scenarios. 0D performance analysis with magnetohydrodynamic activities, 1D kinetic profile dynamics, power balance analysis, linear gyro-kinetic analysis and edge pedestal stability analysis were conducted. The enhancement is thought to be from both the core and the pedestal. The improvement in the core region of the ion energy channel is observed from the linear gyro-kinetic analysis considering the electromagnetic, the fast ion, the Shafranov shift, ${\it{\omega }_{E \times B}}$, and the magnetic shear effect. The electromagnetic finite $\beta $ stabilisation plays a role in the inner core region at ${\rho _{\rm{tor}}}\sim0.35$ together with the fast ion effect. The alpha stabilisation effect is also found at ${\rho _{\rm{tor}}}\sim0.5$. ${\omega _{E \times B}}$, which could reduce the linear growth of the ion temperature gradient mode in the outer core region at ${\rho _{\rm{tor}}}\sim0.5 - 0.7$ with the highest contribution from the toroidal rotation. Furthermore, regarding the improvement in the pedestal, Shafranov shift broadens the stability boundary of the pedestal in support of the diamagnetic effect. The pedestal height and width could be reproduced by the EPED model, while a realistic current profile is used to calculate the internal inductance for Shafranov shift. Based on these findings, a comprehensive confinement enhancement mechanism has been proposed by considering the core-edge interplay.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Trade-offs among restored ecosystem functions are context-dependent in Mediterranean-type regions

Global biodiversity hotspots, including Mediterranean-type ecosystems worldwide, are highly threatened by global change that alters biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and services. Some restoration activities enhance ecosystem functions by reintroducing plant species based on known relationships between plant traits and ecosystem processes. Achieving multiple functions across different site conditions, however, requires understanding how abiotic factors like climate and soil, along with plant assemblages, influence ecosystem functions, including their trade-offs and synergies. We used the ModEST ecosystem simulation model, which integrates carbon, water, and nutrient processes with plant traits, to assess the relationships between restored plant assemblages and ecosystem functions in Mediterranean-type climates and soils. We investigated whether maximised carbon increment, water use efficiency, and nitrogen use efficiency, along with their trade-offs and synergies, varied across different abiotic contexts. Further, we asked whether assemblages that maximised functions varied across environments and among these functions. We found that maximised ecosystem carbon increment and nitrogen use efficiency occurred under moist, warm conditions, while water use efficiency peaked under drier conditions. Generally, the assemblage that maximised one function differed from those for other maximised functions. Synergies were rare, except between water and nitrogen use efficiencies in loam soils across most climates. Trade-offs among maximised functions were common, varying in strength with abiotic context and plant assemblages, and were more pronounced in sandy loam soils compared to clay-rich soils. Our findings suggest that due to variation in abiotic conditions within and across Mediterranean-type regions at the global scale, site-specific plant assemblages are required to maximise ecosystem functions. Thus, lessons from a single site cannot be transferred to another site, even where the same plant functional types are available for restoration. Our simulation results offer valuable insights into potential ecosystem performance under specific abiotic conditions following restoration with particular plant functional types, thereby informing local restoration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 ) as a Metallodithiolate Spin Probe Ligand: A Case Study Approach

The ubiquity of sulfur–metal connections in nature inspires the design of bi- and multimetallic systems in synthetic inorganic chemistry. Common motifs for biocatalysts developed in evolutionary biology include the placement of metals in close proximity with flexible sulfur bridges as well as the presence of π-acidic/delocalizing ligands. This Account will delve into the development of a (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 ) metallodithiolate ligand that harnesses these principles. The Fe(NO) unit is the centroid of a N 2 S 2 donor field, which as a whole is capable of serving as a redox-active, bidentate S-donor ligand. Its paramagnetism as well as the ν(NO) vibrational monitor can be exploited in the development of new classes of heterobimetallic complexes. We offer four examples in which the unpaired electron on the {Fe(NO)} 7 unit is spin-paired with adjacent paramagnets in proximal and distal positions. First, the exceptional stability of the (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 )-Fe(NO) 2 platform, which permits its isolation and structural characterization at three distinct redox levels, is linked to the charge delocalization occurring on both the Fe(NO) and the Fe(NO) 2 supports. This accommodates the formation of a rare nonheme {Fe(NO)} 8 triplet state, with a linear configuration. A subsequent FeNi complex, featuring redox-active ligands on both metals (NO on iron and dithiolene on nickel), displayed unexpected physical properties. Our research showed good reversibility in two redox processes, allowing isolation in reduced and oxidized forms. Various spectroscopic and crystallographic analyses confirmed these states, and Mössbauer data supported the redox change at the iron site upon reduction. Oxidation of the complex produced a dimeric dication, revealing an intriguing magnetic behavior. The monomer appears as a spin-coupled diradical between {Fe(NO)} 7 and the nickel dithiolene monoradical, while dimerization couples the latter radical units via a Ni 2 S 2 rhomb. Magnetic data (SQUID) on the dimer dication found a singlet ground state with a thermally accessible triplet state that is responsible for magnetism. A theoretical model built on an H 4 chain explains this unexpected ferromagnetic low-energy triplet state arising from the antiferromagnetic coupling of a four-radical molecular conglomerate. For comparison, two (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 ) were connected through diamagnetic group 10 cations producing diradical trimetallic complexes. Antiferromagnetic coupling is observed between {Fe(NO)} 7 units, with exchange coupling constants (J) of -3, -23, and -124 cm –1 for Ni II , Pd II , and Pt II , respectively. This trend is explained by the enhanced covalency and polarizability of sulfur-dense metallodithiolate ligands. A central paramagnetic trans-Cr(NO)(MeCN) receiver unit core results in a cissoid structural topology, influenced by the stereoactivity of the lone pair(s) on the sulfur donors. This {Cr(NO)} 5 radical bridge, unlike all previous cases, finds the coupling between the distal Fe(NO) radicals to be ferromagnetic (J = 24 cm –1 ). The stability and predictability of this S = 1/2 moiety and the steric/electronic properties of the bridging thiolate sulfurs suggest it to be a likely candidate for the development of novel molecular (magnetic) compounds and possibly materials. The role of synthetic inorganic chemistry in designing synthons that permit connections of the (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 ) metalloligand is highlighted as well as the properties of the heterobi- and polymetallic complexes derived therefrom.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗