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At least 145 records · Page 8

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Defining a compact dry cooler design to reduce LCOE contribution in a CSP facility

Concentrating solar power (CSP), when coupled with a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle and sensible heat storage, presents a renewable and clean alternative for utility-scale power generation. However, in order to be competitive in the current and future markets, CSP facilities must limit their levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by minimizing capital costs and reducing operating costs over the lifetime of the plant. Targeting this goal, this study investigates the LCOE impact of the power cycle pre-cooler. This study considers a compact dry cooler with micro-channel technology on the CO 2 side and formed fin geometry on the air side, using directly-coupled centrifugal fans and a transition duct to improve air distribution across the fins as well as protect the fins from contaminants which may cause blockage, soiling, fouling, and damage. In an effort to better understand the dry cooler impact on LCOE, a sensitivity study was conducted using various combinations of end-to-end approach temperatures, air-side pressure drop values, CO 2 -side pressure drop values, fan types, cooler turndown control schemes, cooler module sizes, and design-point ambient temperatures. Furthemore, off-design cycle performance data was calculated for each dry cooler design using NPSS simulation software; cycle performance data were then input to System Advisor Model (SAM) along with the associated capital costs for LCOE prediction of a 100 MW system over a 30 year plant lifetime. Results of this study show the LCOE is most sensitive to air-side performance, followed by heat transfer effectiveness and capital cost. It was found that a power cycle with a mid- to high-performance dry cooler will produce the most competitive power-production costs. Designing at the extreme ends for approach temperature (or effectiveness), design-point ambient temperature, and compactness (footprint) produce higher LCOE values; mid-range values for these parameters balance performance, operating costs, and associated capital cost to optimize LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of properties of B$^0_\mathrm{s}\to\mu^+\mu^-$ decays and search for B$^0\to\mu^+\mu^-$ with the CMS experiment

Results are reported for the $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$ branching fraction and effective lifetime and from a search for the decay B$^{0}$→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$. The analysis uses a data sample of proton-proton collisions accumulated by the CMS experiment in 2011, 2012, and 2016, with center-of-mass energies (integrated luminosities) of 7 TeV (5 fb$^{−1}$), 8 TeV (20 fb$^{−1}$), and 13 TeV (36 fb$^{−1}$). The branching fractions are determined by measuring event yields relative to B$^{+}$→ J/ψK$^{+}$ decays (with J/ψ → μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$), which results in the reduction of many of the systematic uncertainties. The decay $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$ is observed with a significance of 5.6 standard deviations. The branching fraction is measured to be $ \mathrm{\mathcal{B}}\left({\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0\to {\upmu}^{+}{\upmu}^{-}\right)=\left[2.9\pm 0.7\left(\exp \right)\pm 0.2\left(\mathrm{frag}\right)\right]\times {10}^{-9} $, where the first uncertainty combines the experimental statistical and systematic contributions, and the second is due to the uncertainty in the ratio of the $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $ and the B$^{+}$ fragmentation functions. No significant excess is observed for the decay B$^{0}$→ μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$, and an upper limit of ℬ(B$^{0}$ → μ$^{+}$μ$^{−}$) < 3.6 × 10$^{−10}$ is obtained at 95% confidence level. The $ {\mathrm{B}}_{\mathrm{s}}^0 $→ μ+μ− effective lifetime is measured to be $ {\tau}_{\upmu^{+}{\upmu}^{-}}={1.70}_{-0.44}^{+0.61} $ ps. These results are consistent with standard model predictions.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model to predict annual energy production loss based on blade erosion class

Leading edge erosion (LEE) of wind turbine blades has been identified as a major factor in decreased wind turbine blade lifetimes and energy output over time. Accordingly, the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme (IEA Wind TCP) has created the Task 46 to undertake cooperative research in the key topic of blade erosion. Participants in the task are given in Table 1.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A probabilistic creep model incorporating test condition, initial damage, and material property uncertainty

Uncertainty is prevalent in the creep resistance of alloys, where at elevated temperature and low pressure, rupture can range across logarithmic decades. In this study, a probabilistic continuum-damage-mechanics (CDM)-based model is derived to capture the uncertainty of creep resistance. To meet this objective, creep data for alloy 304 Stainless Steel is gathered. A constitutive model, “Sinh”, is calibrated deterministically to determine the statistical variability of the material properties. Three sources of uncertainty are injected into the model: test condition (stress and temperature), initial damage, and material properties. Probabilistic simulations are carried out by (a) calibrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) for each source of uncertainty (b) randomly sampling the pdfs using Monte Carlo methods and (c) executing simulations to replicate the uncertain creep behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the relative effect of each source of uncertainty. In full probabilistic simulations, the cumulative uncertainty of creep behavior is evaluated. The probabilistic model accurately predicts the creep deformation and rupture of the available experiments. The probabilistic model is validated for interpolation but lacks extrapolation ability. Several future works are proposed to further improve the model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Catalyzing deep decarbonization with federated battery diagnosis and prognosis for better data management in energy storage systems

Industrial data analytics methods play a central role in improving energy storage performance and efficiency, impacting the future of electrified transportation and renewable electricity generation. However, significant challenges hinder the large-scale deployment of batteries. Conventional methods rely on centralized collection and processing of fleet-level data, leading to database size issues and privacy concerns due to potential data breaches. To enable scalable deployment of battery management systems, this article proposes a federated battery diagnosis and prognosis model, which distributes the processing of battery standard current-voltage-time-usage data in a privacy-preserving manner. Instead of transferring the raw data, this approach communicates only the locally processed parameters, thus reducing communication load and preserving data confidentiality. The federated model offers a paradigm shift in battery health management through privacy-preserving distributed methods for battery data processing and lifetime prediction, ensuring the reliable and sustainable deployment of lithium-ion batteries in a rapidly evolving world.

asset health management↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review—“Knees” in Lithium-Ion Battery Aging Trajectories

Lithium-ion batteries can last many years but sometimes exhibit rapid, nonlinear degradation that severely limits battery lifetime. In this work, we review prior work on “knees” in lithium-ion battery aging trajectories. We first review definitions for knees and three classes of “internal state trajectories” (termed snowball, hidden, and threshold trajectories) that can cause a knee. We then discuss six knee “pathways”, including lithium plating, electrode saturation, resistance growth, electrolyte and additive depletion, percolation-limited connectivity, and mechanical deformation—some of which have internal state trajectories with signals that are electrochemically undetectable. Additionally, we also identify key design and usage sensitivities for knees. Finally, we discuss challenges and opportunities for knee modeling and prediction. Our findings illustrate the complexity and subtlety of lithium-ion battery degradation and can aid both academic and industrial efforts to improve battery lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multivariate degradation modeling using generalized cauchy process and application in life prediction of dye-sensitized solar cells

Recently, the Generalized Cauchy (GC) process has been applied to capture a Long Memory (LM) phenomenon in product degradation modeling and life prediction. Compared with the traditional fractional Brownian motion that captures the LM using a single Hurst parameter, the GC process has two free parameters (Hurst and fractal dimension parameters) that flexibly capture both global LM and local irregularity. However, all existing GC-based degradation models are for a single Degradation Characteristic (DC). In this article, motivated by a real degradation problem of dye-sensitized solar cells that jointly exhibits multiple DCs, global LM, local irregularity and DC-wise cross-correlation, we propose a novel GC-based Multivariate Degradation Model (GC-MDM) to simultaneously capture the aforementioned effects. A maximum likelihood estimation approach is developed to estimate parameters of the GC-MDM. Subsequently, product life prediction based on the GC-MDM is developed. The proposed GC-MDM is validated through a simulation study and a physical experiment of dye-sensitized solar cells. Furthermore, results show that the proposed GC-MDM fundamentally improves the life prediction accuracy in comparison with conventional degradation models which significantly misestimate the uncertainty of product life.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Graphite Thermal and Mechanical Modeling Capabilities in Grizzly

Nuclear-grade graphites are used extensively in the core designs of multiple types of advanced nuclear reactors. In the reactor environment, graphite is exposed over long durations to extreme conditions, including high temperatures, radiation and potentially molten salt and oxygen. Exposure to these conditions can cause several degradation mechanisms in graphite, including nonuniform volumetric strains induced by irradiation and thermal expansion, which lead to stresses that can compromise the performance of graphite components. Evaluating component integrity, predicting component performance over the reactor lifetime, and developing design standards all require robust tools for predicting fracture initiation and propagation in graphite structural components in nuclear reactors. This report documents progress in an ongoing effort to develop modeling and simulation tools in the Grizzly code for predicting the performance of graphite exposed to reactor conditions. Recent developments include a set of thermal and mechanical models that now include the IG-110, NBG-18, and H-451 graphite grades. Improvements have also been made to a nonlinear damaged plasticity model applicable to predicting damage under tension and compression to quasibrittle materials, including graphite. In addition, enhancements have been made to the extended finite element method implementation targeted at simulating graphite fracture. These include new capabilities for crack nucleation in the interior of a solid body, improved treatment of crack nucleation on free surfaces, and more robust modeling approaches for crack growth approaching free surfaces or other cracks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗

DOE OSTI2025

Amorphization and siliconization of silicon carbide as a first wall material

The understanding and prediction of silicon carbide (SiC) material evolution exposed to SOL plasma conditions is of prime interest because SiC represents a promising main chamber wall plasma-facing material for next-step fusion devices (low hydrogenic diffusion, good mechanical and thermal properties under neutron irradiation). Gross and net Si erosion rates from SiC surfaces in contact with a well-diagnosed L-mode plasma in the DIII-D tokamak have been simulated and the surface concentrations of impurities have been tracked as a function of time. Coupled simulation of surface model and impurity transport demonstrates amorphization of crystalline SiC exposed to L-mode plasma due to the accumulation of displacement damages under ion irradiation. This affects the lifetime of SiC plasma facing components. Surface evolution is tightly coupled to impurity transport in the plasma and therefore needs to be integrated with impurity transport simulations to effectively predict Si erosion rates and sub-surface concentrations as a function of time. The simulation workflow couples a semi-analytical surface model to the impurity transport code GITR. The surface model is a homogeneous mixed-material model that tracks physical & chemical sputtering and reflection of impurities. Gross erosion is primarily influenced by the background plasma parameters and redeposition patterns are mainly influenced by the prompt redeposition due to the gyro-orbits of impurity ions. Although crystalline form of SiC is preferable for fusion wall applications because of resistance to neutron irradiation, this work indicates that crystalline SiC will undergo amorphization under D plasma contact with implications of higher sputtering and fuel retention. These results direct us to explore the effects of amorphization on crystalline SiC and further the physics basis of SiC usage as first wall material for fusion environments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling dynamics in low-salt-rejection reverse osmosis for high-salinity produced water desalination: Mechanistic modeling and membrane autopsy

Membrane scaling remains a critical barrier to the reliable operation of desalination systems, particularly for hypersaline produced water (PW) treatment. This study fills the knowledge gap of autopsy-based model validation for PW desalination by elucidating scaling mechanisms in a Low-Salt-Rejection Reverse Osmosis (LSRRO) system through the integration of pilot-scale experimentation and complementary modeling approaches. A semi-empirical modeling framework was developed and applied to a multistage pilot LSRRO system equipped with nanofiltration and RO membranes treating high-salinity PW from the Permian Basin. Water quality analysis showed that total dissolved solids decreased from ~130,000 mg/L to ~1900 mg/L in the permeate, then further reduced to ~300 mg/L by a second-pass RO. Two different thermodynamic modeling approaches were evaluated: the first extends the LSRRO framework by incorporating system complexity and scaling phenomena, whereas the second method explicitly captures concentration polarization in localized supersaturation. Both methods illustrate the tendency for carbonate and sulfate scaling throughout the stages. Membrane autopsies revealed a silica-dominated deposit matrix, localized CaSO 4 at Stage 2, and minor barite/celestite despite their prominence in model predictions. Quantum-chemical calculations indicated silica scaling can be rationalized by favorable adsorption of H 4 SiO 4 on Fe-oxide surfaces (ΔG ≈ −44 kJ/mol), providing a kinetic pathway for interfacial inorganic polymerization even when bulk equilibrium predictions are conservative. Overall, the thermodynamic scaling modeling and membrane autopsy revealed heterogeneous, localized deposits with limited impact on LSRRO performance, while quantum analysis rationalized the thermodynamically unfavorable precipitation formation under bulk equilibrium, reconciling model–autopsy discrepancies. These insights support targeted pretreatment and silica-specific antiscalants to extend membrane lifetime and increase recovery, providing a transferable framework for hypersaline water desalination systems. The combined experimental–computational approach provides new mechanistic insight into scaling in hypersaline membrane systems and establishes a transferable framework for predicting and mitigating scaling in next-generation desalination technologies.

Low-salt-rejection reverse osmosis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shape evolution in even-mass 98-104 Zr isotopes via lifetime measurements using the $\gamma \gamma $-coincidence technique

The Zirconium (Z = 40) isotopic chain has attracted interest for more than four decades. The abrupt lowering of the energy of the first 2 + state and the increase in the transition strength B(E2; 2$^+_1$ →0$^+_1$) going from 98 Zr to 100 Zr has been the first example of “quantum phase transition” in nuclear shapes, which has few equivalents in the nuclear chart. Although a multitude of experiments have been performed to measure nuclear properties related to nuclear shapes and collectivity in the region, none of the measured lifetimes were obtained using the Recoil Distance Doppler Shift method in the γγ-coincidence mode where a gate on the direct feeding transition of the state of interest allows a strict control of systematical errors. Here this work reports the results of lifetime measurements for the first yrast excited states in 98-104 Zr carried out to extract reduced transition probabilities. The new lifetime values in γγ-coincidence and γ-single mode are compared with the results of former experiments. Recent predictions of the Interacting Boson Model with Configuration Mixing, the Symmetry Conserving Configuration Mixing model based on the Hartree–Fock–Bogoliubov approach and the Monte Carlo Shell Model are presented and compared with the experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

MODELING AND METHOD FOR OPTICAL PERFORMANCE OF A RECEIVER COATING AND ITS DEGRADATION DUE TO OPERATION

The optical properties of the coating used on a concentrated solar power (CSP)’s receiver directly impact the performance of the power plant. Receiver coatings are designed to absorb as much heat as possible and transfer it to the circulating fluid. Over time, the absorptivity of the receiver coating degrades due to environmental and operational conditions. This project aims to (1) create a test apparatus that allows coatings to undergo accelerated lifetime testing under conditions that mimic what the coating will experience on-tower; and (2) develop a mathematical model that based on the test data predicts absorptivity over time. To create the mathematical model, samples of BrightSource Energy’s Gen1 and Gen2 coatings were tested first looking at individual failure modes (such as high temperature cycling) and then for combined failure modes in the newly developed apparatus. In addition to taking optical measurements, the samples were destroyed to allow for metalogical evaluation to understand what was happening on a microscopic level. Pre-existing models from the literature that describe accelerated testing as well as individual phenomena observed in the coating were then combined to create the model. Additionally, the Gen2 and Gen3 coatings are being testing at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA) facility in Almeria, Spain to confirm that the apparatus test results are similar to those received on-sun. (PSA’s facility closely mimics on-tower conditions). The goal is to enable industry players to test coatings using the new apparatus, gather absorptivity measurements (without needing to destroy samples), and input the information into the model to determine how the coating will perform over time, thus allowing the optical performance of coatings to be compared even before they are used on-tower. The model will be publicly available by the end of the project (currently projected as December 2024).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The benefits of diligence: how precise are predicted gravitational wave spectra in models with phase transitions?

Models of particle physics that feature phase transitions typically provide predictions for stochastic gravitational wave signals at future detectors and such predictions are used to delineate portions of the model parameter space that can be constrained. The question is: how precise are such predictions? Uncertainties enter in the calculation of the macroscopic thermal parameters and the dynamics of the phase transition itself. We calculate such uncertainties with increasing levels of sophistication in treating the phase transition dynamics. Currently, the highest level of diligence corresponds to careful treatments of the source lifetime; mean bubble separation; going beyond the bag model approximation in solving the hydrodynamics equations and explicitly calculating the fraction of energy in the fluid from these equations rather than using a fit; and including fits for the energy lost to vorticity modes and reheating effects. The lowest level of diligence incorporates none of these effects. We compute the percolation and nucleation temperatures, the mean bubble separation, the fluid velocity, and ultimately the gravitational wave spectrum corresponding to the level of highest diligence for three explicit examples: SMEFT, a dark sector Higgs model, and the real singlet-extended Standard Model (xSM). In each model, we contrast different levels of diligence in the calculation and find that the difference in the final predicted signal can be several orders of magnitude. Our results indicate that calculating the gravitational wave spectrum for particle physics models and deducing precise constraints on the parameter space of such models continues to remain very much a work in progress and warrants care.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adhesively Bonded Copper and Polyimide for Flexible Printed Circuit Boards: A Data-Driven Degradation Study Under Accelerated Aging

The long-term durability of polyimide laminated adhesive based flexible printed circuit boards (PCBs) is critical to the microelectronics industry. The interface of the adhesive layer binding the polyimide and copper layers is particularly vulnerable since decreased bonding strength can lead to deadhesion, performance loss, and premature device failure. Here, in this study, adhesive-bonded polyimide and copper samples are subjected to 1000 h of damp heat exposure (85 °C/85%RH) to evaluate the impact of moisture and copper inclusion on the adhesive bonding performance. Significant copper diffusion through the adhesive layer is observed, which, combined with moisture uptake, is found to substantially weaken interfacial adhesion in copper-containing samples, thereby reducing device lifetime. Observed surface and bulk material changes are correlated to adhesion strength using the network structural equation modeling (netSEM) approach, resulting in a robust predictive model of performance degradation based on measurable materials properties.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the reduction in cavitation-induced erosion damage in the Spallation Neutron Source mercury target by means of small-bubble gas injection

Here, a model developed to represent the progress of erosion damage in liquid-metal spallation target vessels was modified to incorporate the effect of gas injection on the erosion rate. The liquid mercury target system for the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory now operates with helium gas injection to reduce target vessel fatigue stress and cavitation-induced erosion damage. Erosion damage is a primary degradation phenomenon affecting the service life of SNS target vessels, and cavitation mitigation techniques, such as small-bubble gas injection, have been implemented to reduce damage and extend target lifetimes. Erosion depths in samples removed from SNS targets after operation were measured using laser line scanning. These measurements confirmed that gas injection reduced erosion damage. However, quantifying the damage reduction due to gas injection was complicated by variations in lifetime, power, and gas injection rates between different targets. In this study, the operating power and gas injection rate of targets were incorporated into an erosion damage prediction model to quantify their effects on erosion damage reduction. Values of a power scaling factor, β, were calculated by comparing modeled with measured erosion damage. These values indicate that the use of gas injection at the SNS reduced damage to a level equivalent to operating targets without gas injection at 35–47% of the actual beam power. To account for the gas injection effect on the cavitation damage, a simple exponential form based on analysis of the scaling factor β was developed to incorporate the gas rate history with a scaling factor γ in the erosion damage modeling.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Continuum Damage Mechanics Modeling of High-Temperature Flaw Propagation: Application to Creep Crack Growth In 316H Standardized Specimens and Nuclear Reactor Components

Predicting creep crack growth (CCG) of flaws found during operation in high-temperature alloy components is essential for assessing the remaining lifetime of those components. While defect assessment procedures are available for this purpose in design codes, these are limited in their range of applicability. This study assesses the application of a local damage-based finite-element methodology as a more general technique for the prediction of CCG at high temperatures on a variety of structural configurations. Numerical results for stainless steel 316H, which are validated against experimental data, show the promise of this approach. This integration of continuum damage mechanics (CDM) based methodologies, together with adequate inelastic models, into assessment procedures can therefore inform the characterization of CCG under complex operating conditions, while avoiding excessive conservatism. This article shows that such modeling frameworks can be calibrated to experimental data and used to demonstrate that the degree of tri-axiality ahead of a growing creep crack affects its rate of growth. The framework is also successfully employed in characterizing CCG in a realistic reactor pressure vessel geometry under an arbitrary loading condition. These results are particularly relevant to the nuclear power industry for defect assessment and inspections as part of codified practices of structural components with flaws in high-temperature reactors.

42 ENGINEERING↗