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At least 145 records · Page 8

Emergency Response Virtual Environment for Safe Schools

An intelligent emergency response virtual environment (ERVE) that provides emergency first responders, response planners, and managers with situational awareness as well as training and support for safe schools is presented. ERVE incorporates an intelligent agent facility for guiding and assisting the user in the context of the emergency response operations. Response information folders capture key information about the school. The system enables interactive 3D visualization of schools and academic campuses, including the terrain and the buildings' exteriors and interiors in an easy to use Web..based interface. ERVE incorporates live camera and sensors feeds and can be integrated with other simulations such as chemical plume simulation. The system is integrated with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to enable situational awareness of emergency events and assessment of their effect on schools in a geographic area. ERVE can also be integrated with emergency text messaging notification systems. Using ERVE, it is now possible to address safe schools' emergency management needs with a scaleable, seamlessly integrated and fully interactive intelligent and visually compelling solution.

Wasfy, Ayman↗

Bacterial community dynamics as a result of growth-yield trade-off and multispecies metabolic interactions toward understanding the gut biofilm niche

Abstract Bacterial communities are ubiquitous, found in natural ecosystems, such as soil, and within living organisms, like the human microbiome. The dynamics of these communities in diverse environments depend on factors such as spatial features of the microbial niche, biochemical kinetics, and interactions among bacteria. Moreover, in many systems, bacterial communities are influenced by multiple physical mechanisms, such as mass transport and detachment forces. One example is gut mucosal communities, where dense, closely packed communities develop under the concurrent influence of nutrient transport from the lumen and fluid-mediated detachment of bacteria. In this study, we model a mucosal niche through a coupled agent-based and finite-volume modeling approach. This methodology enables us to model bacterial interactions affected by nutrient release from various sources while adjusting individual bacterial kinetics. We explored how the dispersion and abundance of bacteria are influenced by biochemical kinetics in different types of metabolic interactions, with a particular focus on the trade-off between growth rate and yield. Our findings demonstrate that in competitive scenarios, higher growth rates result in a larger share of the niche space. In contrast, growth yield plays a critical role in neutralism, commensalism, and mutualism interactions. When bacteria are introduced sequentially, they cause distinct spatiotemporal effects, such as deeper niche colonization in commensalism and mutualism scenarios driven by species intermixing effects, which are enhanced by high growth yields. Moreover, sub-ecosystem interactions dictate the dynamics of three-species communities, sometimes yielding unexpected outcomes. Competitive, fast-growing bacteria demonstrate robust colonization abilities, yet they face challenges in displacing established mutualistic systems. Bacteria that develop a cooperative relationship with existing species typically obtain niche residence, regardless of their growth rates, although higher growth yields significantly enhance their abundance. Our results underscore the importance of bacterial niche dynamics in shaping community properties and succession, highlighting a new approach to manipulating microbial systems.

Microbiology↗

Moving the needle: Employing deep reinforcement learning to push the boundaries of coarse-grained vaccine models

Highly mutable infectious disease pathogens (hm-IDPs) such as HIV and influenza evolve faster than the human immune system can contain them, allowing them to circumvent traditional vaccination approaches and causing over one million deaths annually. Agent-based models can be used to simulate the complex interactions that occur between immune cells and hm-IDP-like proteins (antigens) during affinity maturation—the process by which antibodies evolve. Compared to existing experimental approaches, agent-based models offer a safe, low-cost, and rapid route to study the immune response to vaccines spanning a wide range of design variables. However, the highly stochastic nature of affinity maturation and vast sequence space of hm-IDPs render brute force searches intractable for exploring all pertinent vaccine design variables and the subset of immunization protocols encompassed therein. To address this challenge, we employed deep reinforcement learning to drive a recently developed agent-based model of affinity maturation to focus sampling on immunization protocols with greater potential to improve the chosen metrics of protection, namely the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) titers or fraction of bnAbs produced. Using this approach, we were able to coarse-grain a wide range of vaccine design variables and explore the relevant design space. Our work offers new testable insights into how vaccines should be formulated to maximize protective immune responses to hm-IDPs and how they can be minimally tailored to account for major sources of heterogeneity in human immune responses and various socioeconomic factors. Our results indicate that the first 3 to 5 immunizations, depending on the metric of protection, should be specially tailored to achieve a robust protective immune response, but that beyond this point further immunizations require only subtle changes in formulation to sustain a durable bnAb response.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Abradable dual-density ceramic turbine seal system

A plasma sprayed dual density ceramic abradable seal system for direct application to the HPT seal shroud of small gas turbine engines. The system concept is based on the thermal barrier coating and depends upon an additional layer of modified density ceramic material adjacent to the gas flow path to provide the desired abradability. This is achieved by codeposition of inert fillers with yttria stabilized zirconia (YSZ) to interrupt the continuity of the zirconia struture. The investigation of a variety of candidate fillers, with hardness values as low as 2 on Moh's scale, led to the conclusion that solid filler materials in combination with a YSZ matrix, regardless of their hardness values, have a propensity for compacting rather than shearing as originally expected. The observed compaction is accompanied by high energy dissipation in the rub interaction, usually resulting in the adhesive transfer of blade material to the stationary seal member. Two YSZ based coating systems which incorported hollow alumino silicate spheres as density reducing agents were surveyed over the entire range of compositions from 100 percent filler to 100 percent YSZ. Abradability and erosion characteristics were determined, hardness and permeability characterized, and engine experience acquired with several system configurations.

Clingman, D. L.↗

Implementing Artificial Intelligence Behaviors in a Virtual World

In this paper, we will present a look at the current state of the art in human-computer interface technologies, including intelligent interactive agents, natural speech interaction and gestural based interfaces. We describe our use of these technologies to implement a cost effective, immersive experience on a public region in Second Life. We provision our Artificial Agents as a German Shepherd Dog avatar with an external rules engine controlling the behavior and movement. To interact with the avatar, we implemented a natural language and gesture system allowing the human avatars to use speech and physical gestures rather than interacting via a keyboard and mouse. The result is a system that allows multiple humans to interact naturally with AI avatars by playing games such as fetch with a flying disk and even practicing obedience exercises using voice and gesture, a natural seeming day in the park.

Krisler, Brian↗

Agentic artificial intelligence for multistage physics experiments at a large-scale user facility particle accelerator

We present a language-model-driven agentic artificial intelligence (AI) system to autonomously execute multistage physics experiments on a production synchrotron light source. Implemented at the Advanced Light Source particle accelerator, the system translates natural language user prompts into structured execution plans that combine archive data retrieval, control-system channel resolution, automated script generation, controlled machine interaction, and analysis. In a representative machine physics task, we show that preparation time was reduced by 2 orders of magnitude relative to manual scripting even for a system expert, while operator-standard safety constraints were strictly upheld. Core architectural features, plan-first orchestration, bounded tool access, and dynamic capability selection, enable transparent, auditable execution with fully reproducible artifacts. These results establish a blueprint for the safe integration of agentic AI into accelerator experiments and demanding machine physics studies, as well as routine operations, with direct portability across accelerators worldwide and, more broadly, to other large-scale scientific infrastructures.

Accelerator/storage ring control systems↗

RLC4CLR (Reinforcement Learning Controller for Critical Load Restoration Problems)

RLC4CLR demonstrates using a reinforcement learning controller (RLC) to solve a critical load restoration (CLR) problem, which improves the grid resilience after a substation outage event. RLC4CLR consists of two parts. (1) RL environment: This environment encapsulates the CLR problem to be solved and provides interfacing functions to follow the standard OpenAI Gym format. A power system simulator, i.e., OpenDSS, is included to provide the power flow solution. Controller inputs and outputs (RL state and action) as well as the reward are defined in this environment as well. In summary, the RL environment is the problem formulation from which the RL agent can learn. (2) RL training script: The training script enables the RL agent to learn its control policy by interacting with the RL environment. For RL training, an open-sourced RL library, i.e., RLlib, is leveraged which is based on a distributed computing framework (Ray). The training script is designed to be able to be run on both local machine or the NREL HPC system. Other components of RLC4CLR include input data, e.g., grid model (standard IEEE test feeders), and other files used for results analysis.

Zhang, Xiangyu↗

A Role of the Reaction Kernel in Propagation and Stabilization of Edge Diffusion Flames of C1-C3 Hydrocarbons

Diffusion flame stabilization is of essential importance in both Earth-bound combustion systems and spacecraft fire safety. Local extinction, re-ignition, and propagation processes may occur as a result of interactions between the flame zone and vortices or fire-extinguishing agents. By using a computational fluid dynamics code with a detailed chemistry model for methane combustion, the authors have revealed the chemical kinetic structure of the stabilizing region of both jet and flat-plate diffusion flames, predicted the flame stability limit, and proposed diffusion flame attachment and detachment mechanisms in normal and microgravity. Because of the unique geometry of the edge of diffusion flames, radical back-diffusion against the oxygen-rich entrainment dramatically enhanced chain reactions, thus forming a peak reactivity spot, i.e., reaction kernel, responsible for flame holding. The new results have been obtained for the edge diffusion flame propagation and attached flame structure using various C1-C3 hydrocarbons.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Building a Computational and Experimental Rapid Response Pipeline to Counter the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak and Emerging Biothreats

The COVID-19 pandemic underscored the promise of monoclonal antibody-based prophylactic and therapeutic drugs, especially where protective candidates can be rapidly identified or developed for emerging biothreats and escape variants. Current cutting-edge technologies for this purpose still rely on pathogen-exposed convalescent volunteers and a large screening effort to find a proverbial needle in a haystack. Computational design of protective antibodies based on pre-existing templates skips those requirements and allows for greater control over the breadth and target epitope, while also co-optimizing for potency and developability or other biophysical characteristics. We approached this problem by building and expanding an in vitro experimental rapid antibody production and characterization pipeline to support development of an autonomous, closed loop, active learning software system based on structural simulation and ground truth experimental data to design and evaluate antibody antigen interactions. Starting from early in the pandemic, we targeted SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19, by re-purposing neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-1 that had been identified in the wake of that outbreak in the early 2000’s. We successfully re-targeted three different anti-SARS-CoV-1 antibodies to neutralize SARS-CoV-2 in vitro, where the antibodies were generated externally and tested through conventional binding and neutralization assays internally or with collaborators. As antibodies were identified from the blood of humans infected with SARS-CoV-2, we shifted to collaborate with academic partners to develop improved versions of their human-derived antibodies. This work reached its most important stage in rapid response to the emergence of the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) in late 2021. In a matter of weeks, enabled by on demand innovation to our screening pipeline, we computationally designed and experimentally characterized derivative antibodies of COV2-2130, one of two antibodies from Vanderbilt that form the basis of the AstraZeneca Evusheld prophylactic drug product. This drug product suffers a serious loss of efficacy against Omicron BA.1 and BA.1.1, the first Omicron strains. Due to tight integration of computational design and experimental evaluation, we were able to identify a pair of designs with potent neutralization of the main targets Omicron BA.1 and BA.1.1; but also the earlier Delta variant, and subsequent Omicron strains including BA.2, BA.4, BA.5, and BA.2.75, demonstrating that our multi-target design process can, by its nature, produce robust antibody designs that strictly improve over the parental antibody. These results, recognized by a 2022 Director’s Science and Technology award, have enabled the follow-on GUIDE program, to commence in FY23. While earlier design campaigns were substantially outsourced, we have engineered better and faster processes internally to better compliment, calibrate, and speed computational designs. As part of the follow-on GUIDE program, we will stand up a rapid and high-throughput antibody production and characterization facility staffed with the expertise and capabilities to foster our current collaboration across PLS and ENG as well as other partnerships toward computational design of biologics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Control Algorithms and Simulated Environment Developed and Tested for Multiagent Robotics for Autonomous Inspection of Propulsion Systems

The NASA Glenn Research Center and academic partners are developing advanced multiagent robotic control algorithms that will enable the autonomous inspection and repair of future propulsion systems. In this application, on-wing engine inspections will be performed autonomously by large groups of cooperative miniature robots that will traverse the surfaces of engine components to search for damage. The eventual goal is to replace manual engine inspections that require expensive and time-consuming full engine teardowns and allow the early detection of problems that would otherwise result in catastrophic component failures. As a preliminary step toward the long-term realization of a practical working system, researchers are developing the technology to implement a proof-of-concept testbed demonstration. In a multiagent system, the individual agents are generally programmed with relatively simple controllers that define a limited set of behaviors. However, these behaviors are designed in such a way that, through the localized interaction among individual agents and between the agents and the environment, they result in self-organized, emergent group behavior that can solve a given complex problem, such as cooperative inspection. One advantage to the multiagent approach is that it allows for robustness and fault tolerance through redundancy in task handling. In addition, the relatively simple agent controllers demand minimal computational capability, which in turn allows for greater miniaturization of the robotic agents.

Wong, Edmond↗

Biocompatible Electrostatic Layered Systems for Viral Elimination in the Nose/Throat

An anti-viral coating for the nose & throat is needed to quickly address the spread of COVID-19 infections and to aid future pandemics. Current nasal delivery systems are typically a 1-spray homogenous solution, which is convenient but may not be as efficient or durable as a multi-spray solution that contains a binding layer to anchor the anti-viral components. Many of the current nasal solutions being investigated to aid in pandemic response have solution-based mechanisms of action and are quickly cleared from the nose/mouth limiting their efficacy lifetime. A multi-spray approach utilizing strong intermolecular forces between polymeric materials and anti-viral agents to provide a robust biocompatible coating is expected to have increased physical and chemical properties to combat viral infection. This work evaluated which tailored biocompatible materials are needed to generate a layered system to combat viral infection. This layered system takes advantage of electrostatic interactions to bind anti-viral components, shown in Figure 1. Proof of concept success was demonstrated through cell toxicity studies and anti-viral assays on both the individual layer components and the complete layered system. Project work began with chemical modifications of Xantham Gum to hydrolyzing xanthan gum to give a negatively charged polymer with varying degrees of ionic character and investigate bonding efficiencies. However, this was abandoned in favor of comparing COTS available materials listed in Table 1 (Results section). Concentration and adhesion studies were performed on layers created using the listed polymeric materials and anti-viral agents. Finally, biocompatibility of materials, layers, and coating system were confirmed through cytotoxicity studies and the efficacy of the anti-viral properties tested with phi6 bacteriophage as a SARS-CoV2 surrogate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Learning Sequential Distribution System Restoration via Graph-Reinforcement Learning

We report a distribution service restoration algorithm as a fundamental resilient paradigm for system operators provides an optimally coordinated, resilient solution to enhance the restoration performance. The restoration problem is formulated to coordinate distribution generators and controllable switches optimally. A model-based control scheme is usually designed to solve this problem, relying on a precise model and resulting in low scalability. To tackle these limitations, this work proposes a graph-reinforcement learning framework for the restoration problem. We link the power system topology with a graph convolutional network, which captures the complex mechanism of network restoration in power networks and understands the mutual interactions among controllable devices. Latent features over graphical power networks produced by graph convolutional layers are exploited to learn the control policy for network restoration using deep reinforcement learning. The solution scalability is guaranteed by modeling distributed generators as agents in a multi-agent environment and a proper pre-training paradigm. Comparative studies on IEEE 123-node and 8500-node test systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Ontological Approach to Integrate Commercial Space Operations with an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS)

The emergence of commercial space operations (CSO) is one of many Advanced Air Mobility domains that pose major challenges to in-time safety assurance because of the different architectures used by the operators and other agents. The National Academies recognized the need to improve integration of disparate architectures and recommended that an In-time Aviation Safety Management System(IASMS) be developed to provide seamless connectivity across interacting architectures and enable in-time safety assurance. An ontological approach to integrating CSO with IASMS involves in-time Services, Functions, and Capabilities design to manage operational risks and inform changes to design. The resulting integrated architecture provides a common basis for risk management and in-time safety assurance.

K Ellis↗

Evaluation of 6-OxP-CD, an Oxime-based cyclodextrin as a viable medical countermeasure against nerve agent poisoning: Experimental and molecular dynamic simulation studies on its inclusion complexes with cyclosarin, soman and VX

The ability of the cyclodextrin-oxime construct 6-OxP-CD to bind and degrade the nerve agents Cyclosarin (GF), Soman (GD) and S -[2-[Di(propan-2-yl)amino]ethyl] O -ethyl methylphosphonothioate (VX) has been studied using 31 P-nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) under physiological conditions. While 6-OxP-CD was found to degrade GF instantaneously under these conditions, it was found to form an inclusion complex with GD and significantly improve its degradation (t 1/2 ~ 2 hrs) relative over background (t 1/2 ~ 22 hrs). Consequently, effective formation of the 6-OxP-CD:GD inclusion complex results in the immediate neutralization of GD and thus preventing it from inhibiting its biological target. In contrast, NMR experiments did not find evidence for an inclusion complex between 6-OxP-CD and VX, and the agent’s degradation profile was identical to that of background degradation (t 1/2 ~ 24 hrs). As a complement to this experimental work, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations coupled with Molecular Mechanics-Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-GBSA) calculations have been applied to the study of inclusion complexes between 6-OxP-CD and the three nerve agents. These studies provide data that informs the understanding of the different degradative interactions exhibited by 6-OxP-CD with each nerve agent as it is introduced in the CD cavity in two different orientations (up and down). For its complex with GF, it was found that the oxime in 6-OxP-CD lies in very close proximity (P GF …O Oxime ~ 4–5 Å) to the phosphorus center of GF in the ‘down GF ’ orientation for most of the simulation accurately describing the ability of 6-OxP-CD to degrade this nerve agent rapidly and efficiently. Further computational studies involving the center of masses (COMs) for both components (GF and 6-OxP-CD) also provided some insight on the nature of this inclusion complex. Distances between the COMs (ΔCOM) lie closer in space in the ‘down GF ’ orientation than in the ‘up GF ’ orientation; a correlation that seems to hold true not only for GF but also for its congener, GD. In the case of GD, calculations for the ‘down GD ’ orientation showed that the oxime functional group in 6-OxP-CD although lying in close proximity (P GD …O Oxime ~ 4–5 Å) to the phosphorus center of the nerve agent for most of the simulation, adopts another stable conformation that increase this distance to ~ 12–14 Å, thus explaining the ability of 6-OxP-CD to bind and degrade GD but with less efficiency as observed experimentally (t 1/2 ~ 4 hr. vs. immediate). Lastly, studies on the VX:6-OxP-CD system demonstrated that VX does not form a stable inclusion complex with the oxime-bearing cyclodextrin and as such does not interact in a way that is conducive to an accelerated degradation scenario. Collectively, these studies serve as a basic platform from which the development of new cyclodextrin scaffolds based on 6-OxP-CD can be designed in the development of medical countermeasures against these highly toxic chemical warfare agents.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Open Computing Infrastructure that Facilitates Integrated Product and Process Development from a Decision-Based Perspective

Computer applications for design have evolved rapidly over the past several decades, and significant payoffs are being achieved by organizations through reductions in design cycle times. These applications are overwhelmed by the requirements imposed during complex, open engineering systems design. Organizations are faced with a number of different methodologies, numerous legacy disciplinary tools, and a very large amount of data. Yet they are also faced with few interdisciplinary tools for design collaboration or methods for achieving the revolutionary product designs required to maintain a competitive advantage in the future. These organizations are looking for a software infrastructure that integrates current corporate design practices with newer simulation and solution techniques. Such an infrastructure must be robust to changes in both corporate needs and enabling technologies. In addition, this infrastructure must be user-friendly, modular and scalable. This need is the motivation for the research described in this dissertation. The research is focused on the development of an open computing infrastructure that facilitates product and process design. In addition, this research explicitly deals with human interactions during design through a model that focuses on the role of a designer as that of decision-maker. The research perspective here is taken from that of design as a discipline with a focus on Decision-Based Design, Theory of Languages, Information Science, and Integration Technology. Given this background, a Model of IPPD is developed and implemented along the lines of a traditional experimental procedure: with the steps of establishing context, formalizing a theory, building an apparatus, conducting an experiment, reviewing results, and providing recommendations. Based on this Model, Design Processes and Specification can be explored in a structured and implementable architecture. An architecture for exploring design called DREAMS (Developing Robust Engineering Analysis Models and Specifications) has been developed which supports the activities of both meta-design and actual design execution. This is accomplished through a systematic process which is comprised of the stages of Formulation, Translation, and Evaluation. During this process, elements from a Design Specification are integrated into Design Processes. In addition, a software infrastructure was developed and is called IMAGE (Intelligent Multidisciplinary Aircraft Generation Environment). This represents a virtual apparatus in the Design Experiment conducted in this research. IMAGE is an innovative architecture because it explicitly supports design-related activities. This is accomplished through a GUI driven and Agent-based implementation of DREAMS. A HSCT design has been adopted from the Framework for Interdisciplinary Design Optimization (FIDO) and is implemented in IMAGE. This problem shows how Design Processes and Specification interact in a design system. In addition, the problem utilizes two different solution models concurrently: optimal and satisfying. The satisfying model allows for more design flexibility and allows a designer to maintain design freedom. As a result of following this experimental procedure, this infrastructure is an open system that it is robust to changes in both corporate needs and computer technologies. The development of this infrastructure leads to a number of significant intellectual contributions: 1) A new approach to implementing IPPD with the aid of a computer; 2) A formal Design Experiment; 3) A combined Process and Specification architecture that is language-based; 4) An infrastructure for exploring design; 5) An integration strategy for implementing computer resources; and 6) A seamless modeling language. The need for these contributions is emphasized by the demand by industry and government agencies for the development of these technologies.

Hale, Mark A.↗

Role of PHM in Autonomous Decision-Making: Aerospace applications

There is an increased need for onboard decision-making capabilities in cyber-physical systems be it in energy, automotive, aviation, space, or other industries as they aim for increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission assurance capabilities. Emerging next-gen technologies such as multi-rover planetary missions, distributed satellites, unmanned ground and aerial vehicle operations and smart grid systems rely on in-time risk assessment and autonomous decision-making. One critical piece of the autonomy puzzle is reliable prediction of system behavior under time-varying and potentially uncertain environmental conditions. Further, if agent states change during operation such as initiation of faults or degradation, reliable diagnostic tools need to be investigated. In this tutorial, we will revise approaches that integrates existing physics-based and data-driven models of agents interacting with probability models of the environment and component operation state. Role of existing PHM methodologies as they feed into decision-making under uncertainty will be studied. Balancing critical trade-offs between high-fidelity prognostic models, prediction time-horizons and the computational requirements for in-time cost-effective decision-making will be discussed through the implementation of surrogate models. Finally, the audience will be introduced to a real-time application of in-time trajectory planning of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on its PHM assessments under uncertain and varying wind conditions.

decision-making↗