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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Intern Deliverable Poster 2025

An Incident Response Plan (IRP) is a document that is created and maintained by an organization that provides guidance in the event of a cyber incident. The primary objectives of an IRP are to aid in the detection, response, and recovery from incidents, as well as to enhance preparation and preventative measures. An IRP should outline specific procedures at each stage of an incident, with the goal of minimizing asset damage, data leakage, and operational impact. By investing in a well-defined IRP, organizations can better manage and mitigate risks associated with cyber threats, ensuring business continuity and resilience. This poster summarizes incident response guidelines for wind energy, which faces unique cybersecurity and physical challenges.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

Fission Product Yield Data Adjustment in a Prototype Version of TSURFER

The TSURFER (Tool for Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis of Response Functionals using Experimental Results) module of Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL’s) SCALE code system has been updated to perform nuclear data adjustments for fixed-source irradiation/depletion problems. TSURFER uses a generalized linear least squares (GLLS) approach to consolidate a prior set of measured responses and corresponding calculated values to create the most self-consistent set of nuclear data. Traditionally, TSURFER adjustments have been performed for multigroup nuclear data such as reaction cross sections. In this work, TSURFER is expanded to perform adjustments to independent fission product yields and branching ratios that need equality constraints. To preserve equality constraints after the data adjustment procedure, an updated GLLS formulation includes a new Lagrange multiplier that forces data adjustment to sum to 0 for a given fission yield/branching ratio parent. A test problem illustrates that the newly updated TSURFER module satisfies the required constraint that adjustments for fission yield data sum to 0.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quantitative analysis of surface characteristics and morphology in Death Valley, California using AIRSAR data

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (JPL-AIRSAR) is used to collect full polarimetric measurements at P-, L-, and C-bands. These data are analyzed using the radar analysis and visualization environment (RAVEN). The AIRSAR data are calibrated using in-scene corner reflectors to allow for quantitative analysis of the radar backscatter. RAVEN is used to extract surface characteristics. Inversion models are used to calculate quantitative surface roughness values and fractal dimensions. These values are used to generate synthetic surface plots that represent the small-scale surface structure of areas in Death Valley. These procedures are applied to a playa, smooth salt-pan, and alluvial fan surfaces in Death Valley. Field measurements of surface roughness are used to verify the accuracy.

Kierein-Young, K. S.↗

NASA Contractor Report: Guidelines for Proof Test Analysis

These Guidelines integrate state-of-the-art Elastic-Plastic Fracture Mechanics (EPFM) and proof test implementation issues into a comprehensive proof test analysis procedure in the form of a Road Map which identifies the types of data, fracture mechanics based parameters, and calculations needed to perform flaw screening and minimum proof load analyses of fracture critical components. Worked examples are presented to illustrate the application of the Road Map to proof test analysis. The state-of-the-art fracture technology employed in these Guidelines is based on the EPFM parameter, J, and a pictorial representation of a J fracture analysis, called the Failure Assessment Diagram (FAD) approach. The recommended fracture technology is validated using finite element J results, and laboratory and hardware fracture test results on the nickel-based superalloy IN-718, the aluminum alloy 2024-T351 1, and ferritic pressure vessel steels. In all cases the laboratory specimens and hardware failed by ductile mechanisms. Advanced proof test analyses involving probability analysis and Multiple Cycle Proof Testing (MCPT) are addressed. Finally, recommendations are provided on to how to account for the effects of the proof test overload on subsequent service fatigue and fracture behaviors.

Chell, G. G.↗

Guidelines for Proof Test Analysis

These guidelines integrate state-of-the-art elastic-plastic fracture mechanics (EPFM) and proof test implementation issues into a comprehensive proof test analysis procedure in the form of a road map which identifies the types of data, fracture mechanics based parameters, and calculations needed to perform flaw screening and minimum proof load analyses of fracture critical components. Worked examples are presented to illustrate the application of the road map to proof test analysis. The state-of-the art fracture technology employed in these guidelines is based on the EPFM parameter, J, and a pictorial representation of a J fracture analysis, called the failure assessment diagram (FAD) approach. The recommended fracture technology is validated using finite element J results, and laboratory and hardware fracture test results on the nickel-based superalloy Inconel 718, the aluminum alloy 2024-T3511, and ferritic pressure vessel steels. In all cases the laboratory specimens and hardware failed by ductile mechanisms. Advanced proof test analyses involving probability analysis and multiple-cycle proof testing (MCPT) are addressed. Finally, recommendations are provided on how to account for the effects of the proof test overload on subsequent service fatigue and fracture behaviors.

Chell, G. G.↗

A data-driven approach to real-time vertical position estimation for NSTX-U vertical stability control

In this paper, a database of 77 996 plasma equilibrium reconstructions from 727 discharges during the initial operation of the NSTX-U spherical tokamak is analyzed to develop a statistically robust model of the plasma vertical position for real-time control. A variety of regression models are developed and tested, ranging in complexity from linear models to deep neural networks, and including input signals ranging from the four pairs of flux loops used historically on NSTX-U up to the full set of 389 real-time signals available to the plasma control system. A linear model based on 140 real-time magnetics signals is found to offer excellent accuracy, with a coefficient of determination R 2 = 0.906. The robustness of this model to limited training data, new operating scenarios, and signal errors is tested, and a procedure is demonstrated to tune the model parameters to optimize its robustness. A time-dependent plasma equilibrium solver, TokaMaker, is used to simulate vertical stability control in NSTX-U, demonstrating that it should be possible to iteratively tune the parameters of a linear vertical position model to stabilize both positive and negative triangularity plasmas in future experiments.

magnetic diagnostics↗

JPL pulsar timing observations. II - Geocentric arrival times

Monitoring of the behavior of naturally pulsating galactic radio sources, or pulsars, through regularly spaced measurements of pulse arrival times, has been conducted by several laboratories. A tabular presentation is here made of pulse arrival time measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network between late 1968 and early 1981. By expressing the measurements in ephemeris time, and referring them to the geocenter, usable tables of results have been generated for each pulsar listed in the first of the tables given. The considerations addressed by the tables are: (1) a necessary step in the study of pulsar dynamics is the reduction of topocentric arrival times to the barycenter of the solar system; (2) the tabulated data are accessible to all opinions as to the procedures to be used in interpreting arrival time data; and (3) different observing programs can usually be combined to produce an improvement in the total data set.

Downs, G. S.↗

Adaptive Process Control with Fuzzy Logic and Genetic Algorithms

Researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines have developed adaptive process control systems in which genetic algorithms (GA's) are used to augment fuzzy logic controllers (FLC's). GA's are search algorithms that rapidly locate near-optimum solutions to a wide spectrum of problems by modeling the search procedures of natural genetics. FLC's are rule based systems that efficiently manipulate a problem environment by modeling the 'rule-of-thumb' strategy used in human decision-making. Together, GA's and FLC's possess the capabilities necessary to produce powerful, efficient, and robust adaptive control systems. To perform efficiently, such control systems require a control element to manipulate the problem environment, an analysis element to recognize changes in the problem environment, and a learning element to adjust to the changes in the problem environment. Details of an overall adaptive control system are discussed. A specific laboratory acid-base pH system is used to demonstrate the ideas presented.

Karr, C. L.↗

Optical Design of the MOSES Sounding Rocket Experiment

The Multi-Order Solar EUV Spectrograph (MOSES) is a sounding rocket payload now being developed by Montana State University in collaboration with the Goddard Space Flight Center, Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center, and Mullard Space Science Laboratory. The instrument utilizes a unique optical design to provide solar EUV measurements with true 2-pixel resolutions of 1.0 arcsec and 60 mA over a full two-dimensional field of view of 1056 x 528 arcsec, all at a time cadence of 10 s. This unprecedented capability is achieved by means of an objective spherical grating 100 mm in diameter, ruled at 833 gr/mm. The concave grating focuses spectrally dispersed solar radiation onto three separate detectors, simultaneously recording the zero-order as well as the plus and minus first-spectral-order images. Data analysis procedures, similar to those used in X-ray tomography reconstructions, can then disentangle the mixed spatial and spectral information recorded by the multiple detectors. A flat folding mirror permits an imaging focal length of 4.74 m to be packaged within the payload's physical length of 2.82 m. Both the objective grating and folding flat have specialized, closely matched, multilayer coatings that strongly enhance their EUV reflectance while also suppressing off-band radiation that would otherwise complicate data inversion. Although the spectral bandpass is rather narrow, several candidate wavelength intervals are available to carry out truly unique scientific studies of the outer solar atmosphere. Initial flights of MOSES, scheduled to begin in 2004, will observe a 10 Angstrom band that covers very strong emission lines characteristic of both the sun's corona (Si XI 303 Angstroms) and transition-region (He II 304 Angstroms). The MOSES program is supported by a grant from NASA's Office of Space Science.

Thomas, Roger J.↗

In-Lab Rapid Analytical Detection of Lunar Volatiles By Universal Gas Analyzer With Comparison to GC-MS System

Introduction: The curation of permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) [1] on the lunar surface is centered around studies based upon the observed volatiles from the LCROSS mission [2]. The rapid detection of important volatile gases and vapors present in planetary bodies and Astromaterials by a standalone analytical device is an area of intense research interest in our group and Planetary Exploration & Astromaterials Research Laboratory (PEARL) facility and this work is relevant to the future preparation of viable lunar simulants for testing curation efforts down the road. The groundbreaking results obtained from the LCROSS Mission [2] open the requirements for the direct detection of volatiles present in regolith materials collected from the lunar surface. The mass spectrometry of volatile chemicals is a general technique that utilizes a set of instruments that creates charged ions from a gaseous chemical species and measures the intensities vs. mass-to-charge ratio (m/z) [3]. In this context, we discuss in-lab experimental results and procedures for rapid qualitative analysis of main LCROSS volatiles (water, H2S, NH3, CO2, and CH3OH) by a Universal Gas Analyzer (UGA) instrument. Additionally, the instrument performance was evaluated by measuring the isotopic abundance ratio of atmospheric Ar-40 to Ar-36 present in room air since, argon is a relevant gas in planetary studies as it can provide an insight and reference point to isotope studies [4]. Additional, cross comparisons were attempted and made between the two instruments to develop a robust analytical technique by comparing mass spectral data for H2S headspace samples with a Trace-1310/ ISQ 7000 (ThermoFisher Scientific.) GC-MS system. Background: The benchtop UGA System is equipped with an SRS UGA 300 quadrupole mass spectrometer designed and built by Stanford Research Systems [5]. This system can be configured for several types of gaseous chemical analysis. The inlet line continuously samples gases at low flow rates (several milliliters per minute) through a capillary limiting the intake pressure making the instrument ideal for online analysis of select gases and/or room atmosphere. Moreover, in our current UGA system, a change in composition at the inlet can be detected in about 200 milliseconds and a complete spectrum is acquired (for a range of 1-100 amu) in under 45 sec with masses measured at rates up to 25 msec per point [5]. This system provides a quick upstream analytical data that we can then compare to results obtained by our GC-MS system. Sample Preparation: Small volume (2-4 mL) of analyte sample was taken in a 10 mL glass vial and sealed with a crimped cap and purged with pure Ar or N2 gas to displace air from the top. The headspace sample was scanned by the UGA instrument at analog, histogram, and pressure vs. time modes. The isotopic abundance ratio for 40Ar-to-36Ar was estimated by measuring partial pressure vs. time scans and setting the mass at 40 and 36 respectively. Results and Discussions: In this work, we have investigated the applicability of the UGA system by qualitative analysis of a series of LCROSS volatiles measured individually. Fig. 1 demonstrates a set of vertically offset spectra for the partial pressures measured as a function of mass-to-charge (m/z) ratios. The average acquisition time for each spectrum was less than a minute suggesting that the UGA system is ideal for quick analysis of geochemical volatiles. For the cross-comparison, we analyzed an H2S headspace sample by a Trace-1310/ISQ-7000 system and compared mass spectral data with previously measured UGA histogram scan data (Fig. 2). In both cases, major peak positions are the same, however, the intensities of fragment ions ([1H132S]+ and [32S]+) are higher for UGA suggesting that the fragment ionization process is stronger in UGA compared to that of GC-MS. To investigate how the integrated area under each chromatogram varies with the headspace sample volume, a set of five H2S headspace samples with increasing volumes was analyzed by the GC-MS system (Fig. 3, inset). A small volume (e.g., 200 to 1000 µL) of H2S/H2O vapor was withdrawn from a 20 mL stock sample vial containing ~5 mL of 0.4% H2S in water by a gas-tight syringe and added to another 20 mL vial filled with argon and analyzed by the GC-MS system. Finally, the UGA detector sensitivity was evaluated by calculating the atmospheric 40Ar-to-36Ar isotopic abundance ratio in room air by running a partial pressure vs. time scan with setting the atomic mass at 40, and 36. Fig. 4(a) shows a ~25 min duration “P vs. time” scan for 40Ar (plot for 36Ar is not shown). The partial pressure values (~100 points) were corrected by subtracting the corresponding background pressure value for 37Ar and utilized to calculate 40Ar-to-36Ar isotopic abundance ratios as shown by Fig. 4b. The average isotopic abundance ratio is ~306 with a 2*STDEV ~13. This abundance ratio is significantly close to the previously reported value of 298.56 [6] and the ratio obtained by our GC-MS system (303 for a UHP grade Ar sample). Conclusions: Our study strongly evidenced that the benchtop UGA system is a valuable analytical tool for the detection of major LCROSS volatiles. The rapid scanning capability, the inexpensiveness of the whole system, and impressive detection sensitivity prove its worthiness as an essential device for advanced geochemical applications. Moreover, cross comparisons with the GC-MS provide important bridges into advanced curatorial efforts into the future. References: [1] Bickel, V.T., et al. (2021) Nat Commun 12, 5607. [2] Colaprete, A., et al. (2010) Science, 330, 463-468. [3] Glavin, D. P. et al. (2012) 2012 IEEE Aerospace Conference, 1-11. [4] Willett, C. D., et al. (2022) Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 329, 119-134. [5] Operation Manual and Programming Reference. (2018) Universal gas Analyzers, Stanford Research Systems. [6] Lee, J. Y., et al. (2006) Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 70, 4507–4512. Notes: (4 figures are attached with text as shown by the attached file)

Curation↗

Calibration and characterization of the line-VISAR diagnostic at the HED-HIBEF instrument at the European XFEL

In dynamic-compression experiments, the line-imaging Velocity Interferometer System for Any Reflector (VISAR) is a well-established diagnostic used to probe the velocity history, including wave profiles derived from dynamically compressed interfaces and wavefronts, depending on material optical properties. Knowledge of the velocity history allows for the determination of the pressure achieved during compression. Such a VISAR analysis is often based on Fourier transform techniques and assumes that the recorded interferograms are free from image distortions. In this paper, we describe the VISAR diagnostic installed at the HED-HIBEF instrument located at the European XFEL along with its calibration and characterization. It comprises a two-color (532, 1064 nm), three-arm (with three velocity sensitivities) line imaging system. We provide a procedure to correct VISAR images for geometric distortions and evaluate the performance of the system using Fourier analysis. We finally discuss the spatial and temporal calibrations of the diagnostic. As an example, we compare the pressure extracted from the VISAR analysis of shock-compressed polyimide and silicon.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Marine Energy Technology Development Risk Management Framework

Over the past decades, the global marine energy industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed a Marine Energy Risk Management Framework in 2015, with this revision published in 2024. This risk management framework shall be utilized on all DOE Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) projects that require system testing in the open water. By addressing uncertainties, the Marine Energy Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of marine energy converter technology. It covers projects of any technology readiness level technology performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over the development cycle. This risk framework is not a substitute for other risk management procedures that may be required for marine operations, such as installations at sea, hoisting and rigging, safe diver operations, and other safety requirements. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE's risk management expectations for marine energy technology research and development efforts from WPTO. It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Energy Resilient Recovery in Puerto Rico: Hurricane Maria Recovery Support

This report covers microgrids as a special application of distributed energy resources (DERs) in Puerto Rico. This is one of a series of reports describing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) multi-laboratory efforts undertaken. To ensure the sustainable, long-term recovery of Puerto Rico's electric power grid from hurricanes Maria and Irma and to build capacity to manage future potential natural disasters in the most secure and resilient way, DOE convened experts from multiple national laboratories to develop a comprehensive set of data, models, analytic tools, and studies, considering inputs from a wide variety of stakeholder groups, to support technically sound recommendations for Puerto Rico's energy investment decisions. In Phase 1 of the multi-laboratory effort to support Puerto Rico's recovery, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) provided the utility company Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) recommendations for a new framework of interconnection standards to accelerate the integration of utility-scale, transmission-connected, renewable electrical generation and energy storage that ensure cross-technology compatibility and enable high deployment levels without compromising grid reliability, safety, or security (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73848.pdf). In Phase 2, NREL published a report focused on the interconnection of distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system in Puerto Rico (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/77127.pdf). This report familiarized the reader with Puerto Rico's distribution infrastructure and operational practices and procedures that are relevant to DER interconnection. The report also provided considerations for streamlining the interconnection process given the expected increase in deployments resulting from Puerto Rico's renewable portfolio standard goal of 100% renewables by 2050. Accordingly, the report identifies considerations and concerns associated with the increase in intermittent generation, strategies for DER interconnection best practices, and the potential use of the latest technological solutions identified in the latest revision of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers 1547-2018 interconnection standard. Additionally, the report identified ways to improve the physical resiliency of installed DERs. This task describes how distributed energy systems may participate in and contribute to improving the resiliency of Puerto Rico's energy infrastructure in the future. This report presents an analysis of the Puerto Rico grid to illustrate the possible different microgrid and minigrid scenarios. The capability to form sustained microgrids and minigrids has the potential to provide a high level of resiliency during disturbances on the grid. DERs, on the other hand, have the capability to aid in the microgrid operation by providing grid support as well as grid-forming functionality. Other tasks in Phase 3 include voltage regulation in distribution networks using DERs and transmission-and-distribution co-simulation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Summary of LANL Critical Benchmark Comparison Study and Revisions for Cases Involving HEU, LEU, MIX, and Pu

This report documents results obtained for revisions made to cases involving Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Intermediate Enriched Uranium (IEU), a mixture of Pu and Uranium (MIX), as well as Pu cases. A previous summary of revisions for HEU an Pu cases was reported and additional investigations into four cases originally presented therein uncovered further revisions which led to better agreement with other transport codes, those cases are updated in this report. The summary of all cases reported in Reference 2 is updated in this report. In addition, a previous summary of revisions for LEU and MIX was reported, a summary of those revisions in reproduced in this report for a comprehensive summary of changes to benchmarks beginning in fiscal year 2020 to current date. The report focuses on the changes made to LANL benchmarks modeled with MCNP6 using ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data that appeared to have discrepant results when compared with results of other codes. Feedback was used to pinpoint review of benchmark input files and to revise them when necessary. This report documents the results of review and revision of specific benchmarks highlighted as possibly discrepant in the comparison study. In addition, there is an effort tied to this work involving collaboration between LANL XCP and NCS Divisions in the development of a shared review/revision procedure and use of a new benchmark repository. LANL has a benchmark library of critical experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook modeled for use with MCNP. This collection is now over 1100 benchmarks, referred to as the Whisper-1.1 library because it is used with the sensitivity/uncertainty package, Whisper, which supports nuclear criticality safety validation and is released with MCNP6.2. The collection, originally created several decades ago, is a combination of smaller collections, which has been revised and expanded, by various groups at LANL over the years. The original authors are no longer at the laboratory and little formal documentation of review and revision of these benchmarks exists today. A branch of the benchmark collection was already the subject of a formal review undertaken by the LANL NCS Division and expanded to include XCP Division.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Command decoder unit

The design and testing of laboratory hardware (a command decoder unit) used in evaluating space shuttle instrumentation, data processing, and ground check-out operations is described. The hardware was a modification of another similar instrumentation system. A data bus coupler was designed and tested to interface the equipment to a central bus controller (computer). A serial digital data transfer mechanism was also designed. Redundant power supplies and overhead modules were provided to minimize the probability of a single component failure causing a catastrophic failure. The command decoder unit is packaged in a modular configuration to allow maximum user flexibility in configuring a system. Test procedures and special test equipment for use in testing the hardware are described. Results indicate that the unit will allow NASA to evaluate future software systems for use in space shuttles. The units were delivered to NASA and appear to be adequately performing their intended function. Engineering sketches and photographs of the command decoder unit are included.

Source record↗

Air Data Report Improves Flight Safety

NASA's Aviation Safety Program in the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, which seeks to make aviation safer by developing tools for flight data analysis and interpretation and then by transferring these tools to the aviation industry, sponsored the development of Morning Report software. The software, created at Ames Research Center with the assistance of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, seeks to detect atypicalities without any predefined parameters-it spots deviations and highlights them. In 2004, Sagem Avionics Inc. entered a licensing agreement with NASA for the commercialization of the Morning Report software, and also licensed the NASA Aviation Data Integration System (ADIS) tool, which allows for the integration of data from disparate sources into the flight data analysis process. Sagem Avionics incorporated the Morning Report tool into its AGS product, a comprehensive flight operations monitoring system that helps users detect irregular or divergent practices, technical flaws, and problems that might develop when aircraft operate outside of normal procedures. Sagem developed AGS in collaboration with airlines, so that the system takes into account their technical evolutions and needs, and each airline is able to easily perform specific treatments and to build its own flight data analysis system. Further, the AGS is designed to support any aircraft and flight data recorders.

Source record↗

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗