Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,315 records · Page 73
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

Underexpanded Screeching Jets From Circular, Rectangular, and Elliptic Nozzles

The screech frequency and amplitude, the shock spacing, the hydrodynamic-acoustic standing wave spacing, and the convective velocity of large organized structures are measured in the nominal Mach number range of 1.1 less than or = Mj less that or = l0.9 for supersonic, underexpanded jets exhausting from a circular, a rectangular and an elliptic nozzle. This provides a carefully measured data set useful in comparing the importance of various physical parameters in the screech generation process. The hydrodynamic-acoustic standing wave is formed between the potential pressure field of large turbulent structures and the acoustic pressure field of the screech sound. It has been demonstrated earlier that in the currently available screech frequency prediction models replacement of the shock spacing by the standing wave spacing provides an exact expression. In view of this newly found evidence, a comparison is made between the average standing wavelength and the average shock spacing. It is found that there exists a small, yet important, difference, which is dependent on the azimuthal screech mode. For example, in the flapping modes of circular, rectangular, and elliptic jets, the standing wavelength is slightly longer than the shock spacing, while for the helical screech mode in a circular jet the opposite is true. This difference accounts for the departure of the existing models from predicting the exact screech frequency. Another important parameter, necessary in screech prediction, is the convective velocity of the large organized structures. It is demonstrated that the presence of the hydrodynamic-acoustic standing wave, even inside the jet shear layer, becomes a significant source of error in the convective velocity data obtained using the conventional methods. However, a new relationship, using the standing wavelength and screech frequency is shown to provide more accurate results.

Panda, J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Contrail Tracking and ARM Data Product Development

A contrail tracking system was developed to help in the assessment of the effect of commercial jet contrails on the Earth's radiative budget. The tracking system was built by combining meteorological data from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical weather prediction model with commercial air traffic flight track data and satellite imagery. A statistical contrail-forecasting model was created a combination of surface-based contrail observations and numerical weather analyses and forecasts. This model allows predictions of widespread contrail occurrences for contrail research on either a real-time basis or for long-term time scales. Satellite-derived cirrus cloud properties in polluted and unpolluted regions were compared to determine the impact of air traffic on cirrus.

Duda, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Martian Radiation Environment: Model Calculations and Recent Measurements with "MARIE"

The Galactic Cosmic Ray spectra in Mars orbit were generated with the recently expanded HZETRN (High Z and Energy Transport) and QMSFRG (Quantum Multiple-Scattering theory of nuclear Fragmentation) model calculations. These model calculations are compared with the first eighteen months of measured data from the MARIE (Martian Radiation Environment Experiment) instrument onboard the 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft that is currently in Martian orbit. The dose rates observed by the MARIE instrument are within 10% of the model calculated predictions. Model calculations are compared with the MARIE measurements of dose, dose-equivalent values, along with the available particle flux distribution. Model calculated particle flux includes GCR elemental composition of atomic number, Z = 1-28 and mass number, A = 1-58. Particle flux calculations specific for the current MARIE mapping period are reviewed and presented.

Saganti, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1999

ISO Mid-Infrared Spectra of Reflection Nebulae

Our goal is to test predictions of models attributing the IEFs to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Interstellar models predict PAHs change from singly ionized to neutral as the UV intensity, Go, decreases.

reflection nebulae dust infrared astronomy↗
NASA NTRS2006

Design Parameters Influencing Reliability of CCGA Assembly: A Sensitivity Analysis

Area Array microelectronic packages with small pitch and large I/O counts are now widely used in microelectronics packaging. The impact of various package design and materials/process parameters on reliability has been studied through extensive literature review. Reliability of Ceramic Column Grid Array (CCGA) package assemblies has been evaluated using JPL thermal cycle test results (-50(deg)/75(deg)C, -55(deg)/100(deg)C, and -55(deg)/125(deg)C), as well as those reported by other investigators. A sensitivity analysis has been performed using the literature da to study the impact of design parameters and global/local stress conditions on assembly reliability. The applicability of various life-prediction models for CCGA design has been investigated by comparing model's predictions with the experimental thermal cycling data. Finite Element Method (FEM) analysis has been conducted to assess the state of the stress/strain in CCGA assembly under different thermal cycling, and to explain the different failure modes and locations observed in JPL test assemblies.

reliability↗
NASA NTRS2011

NEXRAD-In-Space: A Geostationary Orbiting Doppler Radar for Hurricane Monitoring and Studies

Under NASA's Earth Science Technology Program, a novel mission concept has been developed for detailed monitoring of hurricanes, cyclones, and severe storms from a geostationary orbit: "NEXRAD in Space" (NIS). By operating in the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), NIS would enable rapid-update sampling (less than or equal to 1 hour cadence) of three dimenional fields of 35 GHz (Ka-band) radar reflectivity factor (Z) and line-of-sight Doppler velocity (VD) profiles, at mesoscale horizontal resolutions (approx. 10 km) over a circular Earth region of approximately 5300 km in diameter (equivalent to much of an oceanic basin, such as the Atlantic). NIS GEO-radar concept was chosen as one of only four potential post-2020 missions for the Weather Focus area in the 2007-2016 NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Science Plan. The results of the first project aiming at developing the NIS concept highlighted the enormous potential of such mission, and the technological challenges presented by it. In essence, it is because of its rapid-cadence capability that NIS science planning is focusing on hurricane monitoring and prediction. Hurricanes, or generically tropical cyclones (TCs), have always been among the most devastating natural phenomena. This has been painfully reiterated in recent years with a number of powerful TCs landfalling in North America and elsewhere. In April 2007, the first NIS Science Workshop was convened at the University of Miami to galvanize the scientific community's interest in NIS's measurement capabilities for improved TC monitoring and prediction. The general consensus of the workshop was that a GEO Doppler radar would provide a major breakthrough in regards to the observation of TCs, and, when combined with cloud-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. This paper presents brief summaries of the instrument concept, the current technology status, the anticipated impacts on hurricane monitoring and model prediction, and the future science and technology roadmap.

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2016

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.

earth system models (ESMs)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Complex Organic Molecules in the Star-Forming Regions of the Magellanic Clouds

The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC), gas-rich dwarf companions of the Milky Way, are the nearest laboratories for detailed studies on the formation and survival of complex organic molecules (COMs) under metal-poor conditions. To date, only methanol, methyl formate, and dimethyl ether have been detected in these galaxiesall three toward two hot cores in the N113 star-forming region in the LMC, the only extragalactic sources exhibiting complex hot-core chemistry. We describe a small and diverse sample of the LMC and SMC sources associated with COMs or hot-core chemistry, and compare the observations to theoretical model predictions. Theoretical models accounting for the physical conditions and metallicity of hot molecular cores in the Magellanic Clouds have been able to broadly account for the existing observations, but they fail to reproduce the dimethyl ether abundance by more than an order of magnitude. We discuss future prospects for research in the eld of complex chemistry in the low- metallicity environment. The detection of COMs in the Magellanic Clouds has important implications for astrobiology. The metallicity of the Magellanic Clouds is similar to that of galaxies in the earlier epochs of the universe; thus, the presence of COMs in the LMC and SMC indicates that a similar prebiotic chemistry leading to the emergence of life, as it happened on Earth, is possible in low-metallicity systems in the earlier universe.

Sewilo, Marta M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Complex Organic Molecules in Star-Forming Regions of the Magellanic Clouds

The Large and Small Magellanic Clouds (LMC and SMC), gas-rich dwarf companions of the Milky Way, are the nearest laboratories for detailed studies on the formation and survival of complex organic molecules (COMs) under metal poor conditions. To date, only methanol, methyl formate, and dimethyl ether have been detected in these galaxies – all three toward two hot cores in the N113 star-forming region in the LMC, the only extragalactic sources exhibiting complex hot core chemistry. We describe a small and diverse sample of the LMC and SMC sources associated with COMs or hot core chemistry, and compare the observations to theoretical model predictions. Theoretical models accounting for the physical conditions and metallicity of hot molecular cores in the Magellanic Clouds have been able to broadly account for the existing observations, but fail to reproduce the dimethyl ether abundance by more than an order of magnitude. We discuss future prospects for research in the field of complex chemistry in the low-metallicity environment. The detection of COMs in the Magellanic Clouds has important implications for astrobiology. The metallicity of the Magellanic Clouds is similar to galaxies in the earlier epochs of the Universe, thus the presence of COMs in the LMC and SMC indicates that a similar prebiotic chemistry leading to the emergence of life, as it happened on Earth, is possible in low-metallicity systems in the earlier Universe.

Magellanic Clouds, star formation, astrochemistry,↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Second-Order Closure Turbulence Model: New Heat Flux Equations and No Critical Richardson Number

We formulate a new second-order closure turbulence model by employing a recent closure for the pressure-temperature correlation at the equation level. As a result, we obtain new heat flux equations that avoid the long-standing issue of a finite critical Richardson number. The new, structurally simpler model improves on the Mellor-Yamada 1982 and Galperin et al. 1988 models; key feature includes enhanced mixing under stable conditions facilitating agreement with observational, experimental and high-resolution numerical data sets. The model predicts a planetary boundary layer height deeper than predicted by models with low critical Richardson numbers, as demonstrated in single column model runs of the GISS ModelE general circulation model.

second-order closure turbulence model↗
NASA NTRS2024

Artemis I Optical Navigation System Performance

This paper summarizes the assessment of the Optical Navigation Flight Test Objective (FTO) during the flight of Artemis I. The Optical Navigation (OpNav) System was tested under a variety of range, target, and lighting conditions to evaluate the performance compared to the pre-flight predicted error models. In general, OpNav performed very well – successfully processing over a thousand images of starfields, Earth, and Moon. The performance of the algorithm when processing Moon images matched the pre-flight expected error models. The errors when processing Earth images were notably higher than the pre-flight models predicted, however this was found to be due to an over-estimation of the atmosphere bias used in the tuning of the algorithm. After the bias was re-tuned and the images reprocessed, performance significantly improved.

GNC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exercising Prediction Validation Methods for Analysis of Quiet Supersonic Overflight

En route noise certification procedures for quiet supersonic aircraft are in development under the International Civil Aviation Organization for a proposed standard that could enable civil supersonic overland flight. While these quiet supersonic aircraft do not exist yet, methods are being developed and evaluated using existing N-wave empirical datasets and low-boom simulation datasets. One potential aspect of future certification methods is the ability to use a validated prediction model to predict the certification noise level under reference day weather conditions. Methods to validate predictions, such as the two-sample t-test, Fisher’s combined probability test, two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and equivalence testing, have been exercised and modified for this application. While some methods compare mean values, others compare values across the distribution, and a combination of methods can be used. The methods were applied to a subset of an N-wave dataset to demonstrate the applicability and identify potential areas for improvement. Atmospheric turbulence variability was included as a factor in these analyses through KZKFourier propagation simulations with parameters matching actual flights and weather conditions. Results are presented for six noise metrics (PL, ASEL, BSEL, DSEL, ESEL, and ISBAP), and plans to expand the analyses are discussed.

sonic boom↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Future of Land-Based Wind Turbine Rotor Technology: The Perspective from NREL

The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) Project looks at potential innovative pathways for future land-based wind turbine technology. BAR is led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and is sponsored by the Wind Energy Technology Office of the US Department of Energy. This talk will describe innovations and challenges faced by the teams working on BAR. The innovations include numerical models predicting the stability and performance of highly flexible blades, downwind rotors to maximize wind farm power, and controlled bending of 100-meter-long blades during rail transport. The challenges of developing predictive numerical models and formulating successful value propositions supporting new technologies such as distributed aero control devices will also be discussed.

BAR↗
NASA NTRS1985

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

Thiele, O.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Construction of ground-state preserving sparse lattice models for predictive materials simulations

First-principles based cluster expansion models are the dominant approach in ab initio thermodynamics of crystalline mixtures enabling the prediction of phase diagrams and novel ground states. However, despite recent advances, the construction of accurate models still requires a careful and time-consuming manual parameter tuning process for ground-state preservation, since this property is not guaranteed by default. In this paper, we present a systematic and mathematically sound method to obtain cluster expansion models that are guaranteed to preserve the ground states of their reference data. The method builds on the recently introduced compressive sensing paradigm for cluster expansion and employs quadratic programming to impose constraints on the model parameters. The robustness of our methodology is illustrated for two lithium transition metal oxides with relevance for Li-ion battery cathodes, i.e., Li 2x Fe 2(1-x) O 2 and Li 2x Ti 2(1-x) O 2 , for which the construction of cluster expansion models with compressive sensing alone has proven to be challenging. We demonstrate that our method not only guarantees ground-state preservation on the set of reference structures used for the model construction, but also show that out-of-sample ground-state preservation up to relatively large supercell size is achievable through a rapidly converging iterative refinement. This method provides a general tool for building robust, compressed and constrained physical models with predictive power.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Systems and methods for screening particle source manufacturing and development test data

A computing system obtains test data for a particle source. The test data was generated by the particle source when the particle source was caused to emit particles. The test data comprises a first set of measurements of a first type and a second set of measurements of a second type. The computing system applies a data agnostic predictive model to the test data. The data agnostic predictive model is generated without a parametric analysis of variables of the first type and variables of the second type. The data agnostic predictive model outputs, based upon the test data, a value that is indicative of whether or not the test data is abnormal. Based upon the value, the computing system outputs an indication that the particle source was operating sub-optimally when emitting the particles.

Multari, Rosalie A.↗
DOE OSTI2018

A fully 3-D numerical model to predict flood wave propagation and assess efficiency of flood protection measures

Discussed are the development and validation of a 3-D, non-hydrostatic, Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) model using the Volume of Fluid (VOF) approach to simulate flooding events in natural environments. A series of validation simulations in simple and complex geometries are performed to test the different modules of the flow solver. The paper also discusses the differences between simulation results obtained using the 3-D model and those obtained using a standard, 2-D hydrostatic, depth-averaged model. The predictions by the two models show fairly large differences in regions where 3-D effects are expected to be significant (e.g., in regions containing highly-curved river reaches and near hydraulic structures). Then, the validated 3-D model is employed to investigate the efficiency of using flood-protection walls to reduce adverse effects of flooding in the Iowa River near Iowa City, Iowa, USA. Finally, the propagation of a flood wave in a reach of the Iowa River containing a bridge is simulated and the effects of the flow becoming pressurized beneath the bridge deck are discussed. For such applications, in which the regime can change locally between open channel and pressurized flow, the use of fully 3-D, non-hydrostatic models may be the only viable option to accurately predict flow hydrodynamics and its effects on bed shear stresses and sediment entrainment potential, especially around locations where the flow becomes pressurized.

Water Resources↗
NASA NTRS1992

Comparative study of turbulence models in predicting hypersonic inlet flows

A numerical study was conducted to analyze the performance of different turbulence models when applied to the hypersonic NASA P8 inlet. Computational results from the PARC2D code, which solves the full two-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equation, were compared with experimental data. The zero-equation models considered for the study were the Baldwin-Lomax model, the Thomas model, and a combination of the Baldwin-Lomax and Thomas models; the two-equation models considered were the Chien model, the Speziale model (both low Reynolds number), and the Launder and Spalding model (high Reynolds number). The Thomas model performed best among the zero-equation models, and predicted good pressure distributions. The Chien and Speziale models compared very well with the experimental data, and performed better than the Thomas model near the walls.

Kapoor, Kamlesh↗