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DOE OSTI2023

Search for $t\bar{t}H/A$ → $t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ production in the multilepton final state in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for a new heavy scalar or pseudo-scalar Higgs boson ($H/A$) produced in association with a pair of top quarks, with the Higgs boson decaying into a pair of top quarks ($H/A$ → $t\bar{t}$) is reported. The search targets a final state with exactly two leptons with same-sign electric charges or at least three leptons. The analysed dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb –1 of proton–proton collisions collected at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Two multivariate classifiers are used to separate the signal from the background. No significant excess of events over the Standard Model expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in the context of a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model. The observed (expected) upper limits at 95% confidence level on the $t\bar{t}$$H/A$ production cross-section times the branching ratio of $H/A$ → $t\bar{t}$ range between 14 (10) fb and 6 (5) fb for a heavy Higgs boson with mass between 400 GeV and 1000 GeV, respectively. Assuming that only one particle, either the scalar $H$ or the pseudo-scalar $A$, contributes to the $t\bar{t}t\bar{t}$ final state, values of tan $β$ below 1.2 or 0.5 are excluded for a mass of 400 GeV or 1000 GeV, respectively. These exclusion ranges increase to tan $β$ below 1.6 or 0.6 when both particles are considered.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Search for dark matter produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying to a τ lepton pair in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV

A search for dark matter particles produced in association with a Higgs boson decaying into a pair of τ leptons is performed using data collected in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV with the CMS detector. The analysis is based on a data set corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb −1 collected in 2017–2018. No significant excess over the expected standard model background is observed. This result is interpreted within the frameworks of the 2HDM+a and baryonic Z′ benchmark simplified models. The 2HDM+a model is a type-II two-Higgs-doublet model featuring a heavy pseudoscalar with an additional light pseudoscalar. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set on the product of the production cross section and the branching fraction for each of these two simplified models. Heavy pseudoscalar boson masses between 400 and 700 GeV are excluded for a light pseudoscalar mass of 100 GeV. For the baryonic Z′ model, a statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data set of 36 fb −1 collected in 2016. In this model, Z′ boson masses up to 1050 GeV are excluded for a dark matter particle mass of 1 GeV.

Dark Matter↗

NASA NTRS1982

CDTI: Crew Function Assessment

Man machine interaction often requires the operator to perform a sterotyped scan of instruments to monitor and/or control a system. Situations in which this type of behavior exists, such as instrument flight, scan pattern has been shown to be altered by imposition of simultaneous verbal tasks. The relationship between pilot visual scan of instruments and mental workload was described. A verbal loading task of varying difficulty caused pilots to stare at the primary instrument as the difficulty increased and to shed looks at instruments of less importance. The verbal loading task affected rank ordering of scanning sequences. The behavior of pilots with widely varying skill levels suggested that these effects occur most strongly at lower skill levels and are less apparent at high skill levels. Graphical interpretation of the hypothetical relationship between skill, workload, and performance is introduced and modeling results are presented to support this interpretation.

Tole, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Visual scanning behavior and pilot workload

Sophisticated man machine interaction often requires the human operator to perform a stereotyped scan of various instruments in order to monitor and/or control a system. For situations in which this type of stereotyped behavior exists, such as certain phases of instrument flight, scan pattern was shown to be altered by the imposition of simultaneous verbal tasks. A study designed to examine the relationship between pilot visual scan of instruments and mental workload is described. It was found that a verbal loading task of varying difficulty causes pilots to stare at the primary instrument as the difficulty increases and to shed looks at instruments of less importance. The verbal loading task also affected the rank ordering of scanning sequences. By examining the behavior of pilots with widely varying skill levels, it was suggested that these effects occur most strongly at lower skill levels and are less apparent at high skill levels. A graphical interpretation of the hypothetical relationship between skill, workload, and performance is introduced and modelling results are presented to support this interpretation.

Tole, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

The zonally averaged transport characteristics of the atmosphere as determined by a general circulation model

Two dimensional modeling has become an established technique for the simulation of the global structure of trace constituents. Such models are simpler to formulate and cheaper to operate than three dimensional general circulation models, while avoiding some of the gross simplifications of one dimensional models. Nevertheless, the parameterization of eddy fluxes required in a 2-D model is not a trivial problem. This fact has apparently led some to interpret the shortcomings of existing 2-D models as indicating that the parameterization procedure is wrong in principle. There are grounds to believe that these shortcomings result primarily from incorrect implementations of the predictions of eddy transport theory and that a properly based parameterization may provide a good basis for atmospheric modeling. The existence of these GCM-derived coefficients affords an unprecedented opportunity to test the validity of the flux-gradient parameterization. To this end, a zonally averaged (2-D) model was developed, using these coefficients in the transport parameterization. Results from this model for a number of contrived tracer experiments were compared with the parent GCM. The generally good agreement substantially validates the flus-gradient parameterization, and thus the basic principle of 2-D modeling.

Plumb, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Further evidence for a black hole in Beta Lyrae.

Comments regarding an interpretation of the OAO-2 observations of Beta Lyrae are presented. This interpretation had been reported by Wilson (1971). Six color UV curves represent the first continual coverage of a single cycle of Beta Lyr. Explanations for the deepening secondary minimum in the far UV are discussed. It is pointed out that the secondary component is apparently a massive object. The 'black hole' model represents one approach to interpret the observations of Beta Lyr.

Kondo, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Direct integration transmittance model

A transmittance model has been developed for interpretation of high spectral resolution measurements of laboratory absorption and of planetary thermal emission. The high spectral resolution requires transmittances to be computed monochromatically by summing the contribution of individual molecular absorption lines. A magnetic tape atlas of H2O, O3, and CO2 molecular line parameters serves as input to the transmittance model with simple empirical representations used for continuum regions wherever suitable laboratory data exist. The theoretical formulation of the transmittance model and the computational procedures used for the evaluation of the transmittances are discussed, and application of the model to several homogeneous-path laboratory absorption examples is demonstrated.

Kunde, V. G.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Observations of the solar wind speed near the sun

Two-antenna scintillation (IPS) observations can provide accurate measurements of the velocity with which electron density fluctuations drift past the line of sight. We will present recent IPS measurements made with the EISCAT and VLBA arrays. It is common, particularly during declining activity. for the line of sight to pass through plasma with a wide range of speed. Therefore it is important to account for the line of sight integration. It is clear from ULYSSES measurements that the speed is bimodal in nature, i.e., either 'fast' or 'slow.' Thus it is not necessary to model a continuous velocity distribution - one need only locate the 'fast-slow' interface. In addition one must consider the possibility that the density fluctuations are moving with respect to the flow of particles. Alfven waves propagating through field-aligned density fluctuations can mimic a sound wave in this respect, so the apparent IPS velocity can be the flow speed plus the Alfven speed. In modeling the IPS it is important that the scattering be 'weak,' because the weak scattering model requires only 1 spatial parameter instead of 3. Furthermore the effect of multiple velocities in much more distinct in weak scattering. EISCAT can only operate near 933 MHz, which limits the observations to outside of 17R(solar mass). The VLBA is the only facility with the combination of high frequency operation and long baselines required to observe inside of 15R(solar mass). A simple bimodal model has been successfully used to interpret our IPS observations near the sun. Farther out interaction regions have built up significantly and a two speed model is no longer valid. An apparent deceleration in the fast polar wind is sometimes evident when compared to the ULYSSES observation. The density variance delta N(exp 2)e in the fast wind appears to decrease from equator to pole.

Grall, R. R.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Global Aerodynamic Modeling Using Automated Local Model Networks in Real Time

A novel method is presented for automated real-time global aerodynamic modeling using local model networks, known as Smoothed Partitioning with Localized Trees in Real Time (SPLITR), as part of NASA’s Learn-to-Fly technology development initiative. The global nonlinear aerodynamics are partitioned into several local regions known as cells, with the dimension, location, and timing of each partition automatically selected based on a residual characterization procedure, under the constraints of real-time operation. Regression trees represent the successive partitioning of the global flight envelope and describe the evolution of the cell structure. Recursive equation-error least-squares parameter estimation in the time domain is used to estimate a model that represents the local aerodynamics in each region, so that it can be updated independently with non-contiguous data in the range of each cell over time. A weighted superposition of these piecewise local models across the flight envelope forms a global nonlinear model that also accurately captures the local aerodynamics. The SPLITR approach is demonstrated using both simulation and flight data, and the results are analyzed in terms of model predictive capabilities as well as interpretability. The results show that SPLITR can be used to automatically partition complex nonlinear aerodynamic behavior, produce an accurate model, and provide valuable physical insight into the local and global aerodynamics.

Weinstein, Rose↗

NASA NTRS2024

Mineral Dust Optical Properties for Remote Sensing and Global Modeling: A Review

Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.

Aeolian dust↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Methods for Modeling Functional Transition Metal Compounds in Complex Environments: Ground States, Excited States, and Spectroscopies

Rapid advances in energy applications require new theory and computational models to provide guidance for interpretation of experimental results and mechanistic understanding. New theory development is necessary to treat systems of increasing complexity, size, and relevance to real applications. Functional transition metal compounds, including molecules, clusters, nanoparticles, surfaces, and solids, provide particular promise for magnetic, optical, and catalytic applications. However, such systems can be exceptionally challenging to model. To make progress in understanding and designing transition metal compounds for energy applications, theory must be able to simulate such systems in complex environments, as well as simulate the spectra of such complex systems to provide direct connections with experiment. Leveraging the independent expertise of the team’s members, this project aimed to make inroads to the theoretical and computational challenges associated with studying transition metal compounds, their reaction chemistry, photophysics and photochemistry, and response to spectroscopic interrogation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2020

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST to reduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Parallel Kinetic Model for Surface and Bulk Charge Storage in ε -MnO 2 Pseudocapacitors

Pseudocapacitive materials such as manganese dioxide (MnO 2 ) are attractive for energy storage applications due to their ability to combine the fast kinetics of capacitors with the higher energy density of battery-type systems. However, the electrochemical behavior of MnO 2 remains difficult to interpret mechanistically, in part because existing models often fail to distinguish between surface-based redox processes and bulk intercalation mechanisms. In this work, we develop a physics-based model that represents MnO 2 pseudocapacitance as a linear combination of two independent, parallel electrochemical processes: (i) the surface or near-surface redox storage and (ii) lithium ion intercalation into the bulk material. These two processes are treated with distinct kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and are assumed to proceed independently. The total measured current is assumed to be the sum of these two partial currents. We validate the model using rate-dependent cyclic voltammetry experiments, demonstrating that it captures key trends and provides physically interpretable parameters reflecting the relative contributions of surface and bulk processes. By enabling a clear separation between these mechanisms, the model offers a useful framework for analyzing pseudocapacitive materials and can guide the rational design of high-performance energy storage electrodes.

Energy - Storage↗

DOE OSTI2022

High Accuracy Indicators of Androgen Suppression Therapy Failure for Prostate Cancer—A Modeling Study

Prostate cancer is a serious public health concern in the United States. The primary obstacle to effective long-term management for prostate cancer patients is the eventual development of treatment resistance. Due to the uniquely chaotic nature of the neoplastic genome, it is difficult to determine the evolution of tumor composition over the course of treatment. Hence, a drug is often applied continuously past the point of effectiveness, thereby losing any potential treatment combination with that drug permanently to resistance. If a clinician is aware of the timing of resistance to a particular drug, then they may have a crucial opportunity to adjust the treatment to retain the drug’s usefulness in a potential treatment combination or strategy. In this study, we investigate new methods of predicting treatment failure due to treatment resistance using a novel mechanistic model built on an evolutionary interpretation of Droop cell quota theory. We analyze our proposed methods using patient PSA and androgen data from a clinical trial of intermittent treatment with androgen deprivation therapy. Our results produce two indicators of treatment failure. The first indicator, proposed from the evolutionary nature of the cancer population, is calculated using our mathematical model with a predictive accuracy of 87.3% (sensitivity: 96.1%, specificity: 65%). The second indicator, conjectured from the implication of the first indicator, is calculated directly from serum androgen and PSA data with a predictive accuracy of 88.7% (sensitivity: 90.2%, specificity: 85%). Our results demonstrate the potential and feasibility of using an evolutionary tumor dynamics model in combination with the appropriate data to aid in the adaptive management of prostate cancer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1979

A model of the variability of the Venus ionopause altitude

A model for the variability of the Venus ionopause as a function of solar wind dynamic pressure and EUV flux during quiescent solar wind conditions is presented. The radio occultation measurements of the Venus ionopause from Mariner 5, 10 and Venera 9, 10 spacecraft, as well as recent in situ Pioneer Venus measurements are interpreted in terms of this model. An ionospheric model consistent with observations in the 400-1000 km region is predominantly O(+) with densities of about 10,000/cu cm and (T sub e + T sub i) approximately equal to 4500-6500 K. For ionopause measurements below 400 km the ionosphere appears severely compressed and density and temperature profiles cannot be simply described, although a strong correlation with solar wind dynamic pressure is observed. Possible effects of IMF direction switching on the dynamics and structure of the ionosphere are also considered and compared with available ionopause data.

Wolff, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sensitivity of Temperature Profiles Retrieved from Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES) Observations to the GSFC Synthetic Mars Model Atmosphere

Part of the task of interpreting IR spectral features observed by MGS/TES due to surface minerals requires distinguishing those IR signatures from atmospheric signatures of gas and dust. Surface-atmosphere separation for MGS/TES depends on knowledge of the retrieved temperature profile. In turn, the temperature retrieval Erom the observed data depends on molecular parameters including 15 micron CO2 line shape or line intensities which contribute to defining the Mars synthetic radiative transfer model. Using a simple isothermal, homogeneous single layer model of Pinnock and Shine, we find the ratio of (the error in degrees Kelvin of the retrieved temperature profile) to (the percentage error in the absorption coefficient) (deg K/percent) to be 0.4 at 200K. This ratio at 150K and 250K is 0.2 and 0.6, respectively. A more refined model, incorporating observed MGS/TES retrieved temperature profiles, the TES instrumental resolution and the most recent molecular modelling, will yield an improved knowledge of this error sensitivity. We present results of such a sensitivity study to determine the dependence of temperature profiles inverted from MGS/TES on these and other molecular parameters. This work was supported in part by NASA's Mars Data Analysis Program.

Maguire, William C.↗