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At least 1,261 records · Page 70

Knowledge-Informed Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Time Series Forecasting of Dynamical Engineered Systems

The high complexity and multiscale nature of many engineered systems—such as those in nuclear power plants—make representing and forecasting their dynamic behavior challenging. Physics-based models can be overly complex and computationally intractable, whereas machine learning (ML) tools are often data-hungry and prone to unphysical solutions. This study proposes a knowledge-informed ML-aided hybrid residual modeling approach that offers accurate and efficient time series forecasting for the operation of dynamical engineered systems. Hybrid residual modeling entails a baseline solution from domain knowledge and known physics expressions about the system dynamics integrated with an ML model to capture undiscovered information from the mismatch (i.e., residuals) between true states from measurements and baseline-predicted outputs. This study further quantifies the ML model uncertainty to provide trustworthy solutions. Real-time operational data from thermal-hydraulic flow loops of the cryogenic moderator system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Spallation Neutron Source facility were used to demonstrate the potential of knowledge-informed uncertainty-aware ML in real-world applications. The state variables of the cryogenic helium loop were modeled with (1) first principles–based system identification (sysID), (2) long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, and (3) hybrid sysID (baseline) + LSTM (residual). The superior predictive capability of the sysID+LSTM model versus stand-alone sysID and LSTM is confirmed by average performance metrics and individual data points across different prediction horizons. By creating a robust representation of the underlying physical system, the widely applicable hybrid residual modeling approach will enable the future development of digital twins for performance prediction, prognostics, and operation control.

Zhao, Xingang↗

Space Shuttle Orbiter flight heating rate measurement sensitivity to thermal protection system uncertainties

A study was completed to determine the sensitivity of computed convective heating rates to uncertainties in the thermal protection system thermal model. Those parameters considered were: density, thermal conductivity, and specific heat of both the reusable surface insulation and its coating; coating thickness and emittance; and temperature measurement uncertainty. The assessment used a modified version of the computer program to calculate heating rates from temperature time histories. The original version of the program solves the direct one dimensional heating problem and this modified version of The program is set up to solve the inverse problem. The modified program was used in thermocouple data reduction for shuttle flight data. Both nominal thermal models and altered thermal models were used to determine the necessity for accurate knowledge of thermal protection system's material thermal properties. For many thermal properties, the sensitivity (inaccuracies created in the calculation of convective heating rate by an altered property) was very low.

Bradley, P. F.↗

Secure Large-Scale Airport Simulations Using Distributed Computational Resources

To fully conduct research that will support the far-term concepts, technologies and methods required to improve the safety of Air Transportation a simulation environment of the requisite degree of fidelity must first be in place. The Virtual National Airspace Simulation (VNAS) will provide the underlying infrastructure necessary for such a simulation system. Aerospace-specific knowledge management services such as intelligent data-integration middleware will support the management of information associated with this complex and critically important operational environment. This simulation environment, in conjunction with a distributed network of supercomputers, and high-speed network connections to aircraft, and to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), airline and other data-sources will provide the capability to continuously monitor and measure operational performance against expected performance. The VNAS will also provide the tools to use this performance baseline to obtain a perspective of what is happening today and of the potential impact of proposed changes before they are introduced into the system.

McDermott, William J.↗

A CLIPS based personal computer hardware diagnostic system

Often the person designated to repair personal computers has little or no knowledge of how to repair a computer. Described here is a simple expert system to aid these inexperienced repair people. The first component of the system leads the repair person through a number of simple system checks such as making sure that all cables are tight and that the dip switches are set correctly. The second component of the system assists the repair person in evaluating error codes generated by the computer. The final component of the system applies a large knowledge base to attempt to identify the component of the personal computer that is malfunctioning. We have implemented and tested our design with a full system to diagnose problems for an IBM compatible system based on the 8088 chip. In our tests, the inexperienced repair people found the system very useful in diagnosing hardware problems.

Whitson, George M.↗

Knowledge-based fault monitoring and diagnosis in Space Shuttle propellant loading

The LOX Expert System (LES), now being developed as a tool for the constraint-based monitoring and analysis of propellant loading at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC), is discussed. The loading of LOX at the KSC and its control and monitoring by the Launch Processing System are summarized, and the relevant problem for LES is presented. The LES database is briefly described, and the interaction of LES with KNOBS, a constraint- and frame-oriented knowledge-based system developed as a demonstration system in aid of tactical air mission planning, is the context of launch processing is discussed in detail. The design and fault isolation techniques of LES are also discussed.

Scarl, E. A.↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Autonomous reconfigurable GPS/INS navigation and pointing system for rendezvous and docking

The briefing describes work using the Global Positioning System to determine position of spacecraft and the development of computer tools to utilize these position determinations to enable autonomous rendezvous. Using GPS data in conjunction with Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) provides the capability for absolute spacecraft navigation, navigation of one spacecraft relative to another, and attitude determination. Some results presented are based on limited observations, though simulation results are documented. A GPS/INS navigation flight experiment could provide a platform for evaluating approaches for autonomous operation and reconfigurability of the navigation and attitude determination subsystem for future space vehicles. Current emphasis is on the development and demonstration of an Onboard Mission Manager (OMM) and a Multi-Mode Navigation Kalman filter. Sensor data will be handed over to the OMM, which will determine the appropriate response and generate commands for the Kalman filter to use to reconfigure itself. Global Positioning System measurements and INS data will be processed in the integrated navigation filter and used to compute errors in position, velocity, and attitude. Inertial Navigation Systems instrument errors (biases, scale factors, etc.) also can be estimated. The OMM then will use a knowledge base to determine appropriate system response. The GPS is good for missions that have attitude pointing accuracy requirements within the 100 to 200 arcsecond range.

Upadhyay, Triveni M.↗

Systems aspects of COBE science data compression

A general approach to compression of diverse data from large scientific projects has been developed and this paper addresses the appropriate system and scientific constraints together with the algorithm development and test strategy. This framework has been implemented for the COsmic Background Explorer spacecraft (COBE) by retrofitting the existing VAS-based data management system with high-performance compression software permitting random access to the data. Algorithms which incorporate scientific knowledge and consume relatively few system resources are preferred over ad hoc methods. COBE exceeded its planned storage by a large and growing factor and the retrieval of data significantly affects the processing, delaying the availability of data for scientific usage and software test. Embedded compression software is planned to make the project tractable by reducing the data storage volume to an acceptable level during normal processing.

Freedman, I.↗

Exploring Our Solar System with Cubesats and Smallsats: A NASA/JPL Perspective

We are on the threshold of a new era in robotic exploration of our solar system, one in which Cubesats and Smallsats will play an important role. As NASA’s lead center for robotic solar system exploration, JPL has a strategic interest in these new capabilities that enable scientists to expand our knowledge of how our solar system formed, how it works, and even how life originated. JPL’s two MarCO spacecraft are currently being prepared for launch along with the InSight Discovery mission in May of this year. This first pair of interplanetary Cubesats will make their way independently to Mars and provide a relay capability for the InSight lander back to Earth. Lunar Flashlight and Near Earth Asteroid Scout, two Cubesats that are currently under development, will form part of the ‘swarm’ of Cubesats escorted into lunar orbit by NASA’s EM-1 mission – the first launch of its new SLS rocket. This paper will provide an overview of these and other Cubesat and Smallsat mission developments at JPL.

Freeman, Anthony↗

Third Annual Workshop on Space Operations Automation and Robotics (SOAR 1989)

Papers presented at the Third Annual Workshop on Space Operations Automation and Robotics (SOAR '89), hosted by the NASA Lyndon 8. Johnson Space Center at Houston, Texas, on July 25-27, 1989, are documented herein. During the three days, approximately 100 technical papers wer3 presented by experts from NASA, the USAF, universities, and technical companies. Also held were panel discussions on Air Force/NASA AI Overview and Expert System Verification and Validation. Tutorial sessions included Neural Networks; Theory and Application of Back Propagation; Verification and Validation of Expert Systems/ Evaluation of Expert System Tools; and Technical Environment for Modular Architectures for Robotics in Space; and are not documented herein. Technical topics addressed included intelligent systems, robotics, human factors, and environment.

Knowledge representation↗

Ongoing Capabilities and Developments of Re-Entry Plasma Ground Tests at EADS-ASTRIUM

During re-entry, spacecrafts are subjected to extreme thermal loads. On mars, they may go through dust storms. These external heat loads are leading the design of re-entry vehicles or are affecting it for spacecraft facing solid propellant jet stream. Sizing the Thermal Protection System require a good knowledge of such solicitations and means to model and reproduce them on earth. Through its work on European projects, ASTRIUM has developed the full range of competences to deal with such issues. For instance, we have designed and tested the heat-shield of the Huygens probe which landed on Titan. In particular, our plasma generators aim to reproduce a wide variety of re-entry conditions. Heat loads are generated by the huge speed of the probes. Such conditions cannot be fully reproduced. Ground tests focus on reproducing local aerothermal loads by using slower but hotter flows. Our inductive plasma torch enables to test little samples at low TRL. Amongst the arc-jets, one was design to test architecture design of ISS crew return system and others fit more severe re-entry such as sample returns or Venus re-entry. The last developments aimed in testing samples in seeded flows. First step was to design and test the seeding device. Special diagnostics characterizing the resulting flow enabled us to fit it to the requirements.

Jullien, Pierre↗

TARGET's role in knowledge acquisition, engineering, validation, and documentation

We investigate the use of the TARGET task analysis tool for use in the development of rule-based expert systems. We found TARGET to be very helpful in the knowledge acquisition process. It enabled us to perform knowledge acquisition with one knowledge engineer rather than two. In addition, it improved communication between the domain expert and knowledge engineer. We also found it to be useful for both the rule development and refinement phases of the knowledge engineering process. Using the network in these phases required us to develop guidelines that enabled us to easily translate the network into production rules. A significant requirement for TARGET remaining useful throughout the knowledge engineering process was the need to carefully maintain consistency between the network and the rule representations. Maintaining consistency not only benefited the knowledge engineering process, but also has significant payoffs in the areas of validation of the expert system and documentation of the knowledge in the system.

Levi, Keith R.↗

Envisioning the Future Renewable and Resilient Energy Grids—A Power Grid Revolution Enabled by Renewables, Energy Storage, and Energy Electronics

Today’s power grids are facing tremendous challenges because of the ever-increasing power demand, system complexity, infrastructure cost, knowledge base, and policy and regulatory issues to achieve supply–demand power balance and resiliency with respect to more frequent extreme weather events and cyberattacks. It is particularly challenging when the transition toward 100% intermittent renewable energy sources is considered. Many countries are calling for building up more transmission and distribution lines to increase power delivery capacities. This article is an attempt to answer two urgent questions: Is more transmission and distribution infrastructure really needed to meet the increasing power demand? What kind of future grid infrastructure should we envision and build? This article attempts to answer these questions and proposes the concept of community-centric asynchronous renewable and resilient energy grids. By clearly differentiating the concepts of grid resilience and reliability, the importance of building resilient power electronics’ devices and robust system-level control algorithms to achieve 100% renewable energy integrated resilient grids is presented. To identify the shortcomings and propose advancements, power electronics’ technologies are categorized using the proposed concepts of natural source frequencies (NSf), energy storage, direct energy conversion/control and fault protection (DeCaFp), and high-efficiency energy consumption and buffering (heECaB) technology. The ability of networked microgrids to greatly reduce power outages and power system restoration time is demonstrated by leveraging robust decentralized and centralized control algorithms, identified through a comprehensive literature review. Future research areas are proposed to further enhance grid stability, controllability, cybersecurity, and protection against faults in the presence of 100% renewable sources by leveraging the advanced capabilities of NSf, DeCaFp, and heECaB devices and system-level control algorithms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Satellite Servicing Capabilities Office Testing

While at the KSC, I was given the opportunity of assisting the Satellite Servicing Capabilities Office (SSCO) specifically the Propellant Transfer System (PTS) lead by my mentor, Brian Nufer. While waiting to test different components in the PTS, I was able to assist with testing for the Hose Management Assembly (HMA) and was able to work on a simulation in Labview. For the HMA, I was able to help with testing of a coating as well as to help test the durability of the pinch rollers in space. In Labview, I experimented with building a simulation for the PTS, to show where fluids and gases were flowing depending on which valves in the PTS were opened. Not all of the integrated parts required assembly level testing, which allowed me to test these parts individually by myself and document the results. I was also able to volunteer to assist project NEO, allowing me to gain some knowledge of cryogenic fluid systems.

PTS↗

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗

Knowledge Management: FY22 Los Alamos National Laboratory Hydrothermal Lab for Spent Fuel Campaign R&D

The use of Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS) for spent nuclear fuel disposal is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Energy as a part of the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Campaign. Such dry spent fuel canisters would be loaded with fuel bundles, and then transported and stored at a nuclear waste repository. Once the canisters are in place underground, the space between the canister and the wall rock will be filled with bentonite clay. Recent research has prioritized high temperature interactions of EBS materials, including phase transitions in bentonite clay, in order to reduce worker dose and repository cost. Higher temperature (i.e., 200ºC) thermal limits are a new area of investigation by the U.S. and international repository science programs. The hydrothermal experimental laboratory at Los Alamos, consisting of rocking autoclaves and cold seal assemblies, is critical to the campaign and presents a significant temperature / pressure safety hazard. Therefore, working competently and safely with these systems is very important to the knowledge management procedures developed at this laboratory. Therefore, the operation of these two systems (rocking autoclaves and cold seal assemblies) will be discussed first.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Comparison of the Environmental Effects of Open-Loop and Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capabilities are generally characterized as either open-loop or closed-loop. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) defines open-loop PSH as “continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature,” and closed-loop PSH as “not continuously connected to a naturally flowing water feature.” All the PSH projects constructed in the United States to date are open-loop, so the potential environmental effects of closed-loop systems are not as well documented as the effects of open-loop systems. To address this knowledge gap, the DOE Water Power Technologies Office, under its HydroWIRES Initiative, has prepared this report to: (1) compare the potential environmental effects of open-loop PSH projects with those of closed-loop PSH projects; (2) describe how these effects are being avoided, minimized, or mitigated at existing projects in other countries and proposed projects in the United States; and (3) discuss the relative significance of the environmental issues. The report begins with a brief introduction on the current status of PSH development in the United States. Next, the report describes the current Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydropower licensing process, emphasizing some recent regulatory changes that affect closed-loop PSH development. The report then provides a summary comparison of the environmental effects of constructing and operating open-loop and closed-loop PSH systems and discusses the relative significance of those issues. This comparison and discussion are based on the results of a literature review and a review of FERC licensing records. The literature review includes journal articles, technical reports, and presentations on the environmental effects of PSH systems. It includes literature from the United States as well as countries where closed-loop PSH projects have been constructed. The FERC records review examines the FERC licensing record (e.g., National Environmental Policy Act documents and license orders) to identify the environmental effects anticipated and mitigation measures proposed for six of the closed-loop PSH projects currently licensed or permitted in the United States. For comparison, the FERC records review also discusses the environmental effects and mitigation measures for four open-loop PSH projects proposed or currently operating in the United States. The comparison of effects between open-loop and closed-loop projects is relative; that is, it characterizes the impacts of each project type as generally lower or higher than another project type. The comparison reflects general trends among project types because there are sometimes exceptions to the examples cited. The comparison is based on both spatial (location) and temporal (duration) factors and reflects both the severity and likelihood of effects. The report concludes that the environmental effects of closed-loop PSH projects are generally lower (i.e., more localized and of shorter duration) than those of open-loop PSH projects because they are located “off-stream,” minimizing aquatic and terrestrial impacts, and often have greater siting flexibility than open-loop PSH projects. For certain closed-loop project designs, however, impacts to groundwater may be higher relative to open-loop projects and should be considered in any environmental review.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Learning the ground state of a non-stoquastic quantum Hamiltonian in a rugged neural network landscape

Strongly interacting quantum systems described by non-stoquastic Hamiltonians exhibit rich low-temperature physics. Yet, their study poses a formidable challenge, even for state-of-the-art numerical techniques. Here, we investigate systematically the performance of a class of universal variational wave-functions based on artificial neural networks, by considering the frustrated spin- 1/2 1 / 2 J_1-J_2 J 1 − J 2 Heisenberg model on the square lattice. Focusing on neural network architectures without physics-informed input, we argue in favor of using an ansatz consisting of two decoupled real-valued networks, one for the amplitude and the other for the phase of the variational wavefunction. By introducing concrete mitigation strategies against inherent numerical instabilities in the stochastic reconfiguration algorithm we obtain a variational energy comparable to that reported recently with neural networks that incorporate knowledge about the physical system. Through a detailed analysis of the individual components of the algorithm, we conclude that the rugged nature of the energy landscape constitutes the major obstacle in finding a satisfactory approximation to the ground state wavefunction, and prevents learning the correct sign structure. In particular, we show that in the present setup the neural network expressivity and Monte Carlo sampling are not primary limiting factors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗