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DOE OSTI2025

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quartet-based inference is statistically consistent under the unified duplication-loss-coalescence model

Abstract Motivation The classic multispecies coalescent (MSC) model provides the means for theoretical justification of incomplete lineage sorting-aware species tree inference methods. This has motivated an extensive body of work on phylogenetic methods that are statistically consistent under MSC. One such particularly popular method is ASTRAL, a quartet-based species tree inference method. Novel studies suggest that ASTRAL also performs well when given multi-locus gene trees in simulation studies. Further, Legried et al. recently demonstrated that ASTRAL is statistically consistent under the gene duplication and loss model (GDL). GDL is prevalent in evolutionary histories and is the first core process in the powerful duplication-loss-coalescence evolutionary model (DLCoal) by Rasmussen and Kellis. Results In this work, we prove that ASTRAL is statistically consistent under the general DLCoal model. Therefore, our result supports the empirical evidence from the simulation-based studies. More broadly, we prove that the quartet-based inference approach is statistically consistent under DLCoal. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

MaNGA DynPop – I. Quality-assessed stellar dynamical modelling from integral-field spectroscopy of 10K nearby galaxies: a catalogue of masses, mass-to-light ratios, density profiles, and dark matter

ABSTRACT This is the first paper in our series on the combined analysis of the Dynamics and stellar Population (DynPop) for the MaNGA survey in the final SDSS Data Release 17 (DR17). Here, we present a catalogue of dynamically determined quantities for over 10 000 nearby galaxies based on integral-field stellar kinematics from the MaNGA survey. The dynamical properties are extracted using the axisymmetric Jeans Anisotropic Modelling (JAM) method, which was previously shown to be the most accurate for this kind of study. We assess systematic uncertainties using eight dynamical models with different assumptions. We use two orientations of the velocity ellipsoid: either cylindrically aligned JAMcyl or spherically aligned JAMsph. We also make four assumptions for the models’ dark versus luminous matter distributions: (1) mass-follows-light, (2) free NFW dark halo, (3) cosmologically constrained NFW halo, (4) generalized NFW dark halo, i.e. with free inner slope. In this catalogue, we provide the quantities related to the mass distributions (e.g. the density slopes and enclosed mass within a sphere of a given radius for total mass, stellar mass, and dark matter mass components). We also provide the complete models which can be used to compute the full luminous and mass distribution of each galaxy. Additionally, we visually assess the qualities of the models to help with model selections. We estimate the observed scatter in the measured quantities which decreases as expected with improvements in quality. For the best data quality, we find a remarkable consistency of measured quantities between different models, highlighting the robustness of the results.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of the baryonic Tully–Fisher relation in MaNGA and IllustrisTNG

We compare an observed baryonic Tully–Fisher relation (BTFR) from the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) and HI-MaNGA surveys to a simulated BTFR from the cosmological magnetohydrodynamical simulation, IllustrisTNG. To do so, we calibrate the BTFR of the local universe using 377 galaxies from the MaNGA and HI-MaNGA surveys, and perform mock 21 cm observations of matching galaxies from IllustrisTNG. The mock observations are used to ensure that the comparison with the observed galaxies is fair since it has identical measurement algorithms, observational limitations, biases, and uncertainties. For comparison, we also calculate the BTFR for the simulation without mock observations and demonstrate how mock observations are necessary to fairly and consistently compare between observational and theoretical data. We report a MaNGA BTFR of log$_{10} (M_{ \rm Bary}/M_\odot)= (2.97 \pm 0.18)$ log$_{10} V_{ \rm Rot} + (4.04 \pm 0.41)\, \log _{10}{M_{\odot }}$ and an IllustrisTNG BTFR of log$_{10} (M_{ \rm Bary}/M_\odot) = (2.94 \pm 0.23$) log$_{10} V_{ \rm Rot} + (4.15 \pm 0.44)\, \log _{10}{M_{\odot }}$. Thus, MaNGA and IllustrisTNG produce BTFRs that agree within uncertainties, demonstrating that IllustrisTNG has created a galaxy population that obeys the observed relationship between mass and rotation velocity in the observed universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating cosmological biases using photometric redshifts for Type Ia Supernova cosmology with the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program

Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full p(z) priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within ±0.02 when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within ~1σ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses.

(cosmology:) dark energy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Signature of hadron-quark crossover in binary-neutron-star mergers

Here, we study observational signatures of the hadron-quark crossover in binary-neutron-star mergers by numerical-relativity simulations with various mass configurations. We employ two equations of state (EoSs) for matter consistent with inference from the observational data. In the crossover scenario the EoS is softened in a density realized in binary-neutron-star mergers and is smoothly continued to quark matter. In the phase transition scenario without crossover, the EoS remains stiff and a first-order phase transition takes place in a density out of reach of mergers. A GW170817-like system forms a remnant massive neutron star in both scenarios, and it collapses into a black hole only in the crossover scenario due to the softening while gravitational-wave emission is strong. This difference is clearly reflected in the sudden shutdown of gravitational waves. For a given EoS, the lifetime of the merger remnant is determined primarily by the total mass of the system. Identifying these features in a variety of future events with the next generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors will enable us to clarify details of hadron-quark transition. The mass of the accretion disk surrounding the remnant black hole is affected not only by the lifetime of the remnant but also by the mass ratio of the system. Electromagnetic emission associated with the disk outflow will also be useful for detailed investigation of the hadron-quark transition.

QCD phase transitions↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Flow in Thin Shell Implosions and Explosions

Energy flow and balance in convergent systems beyond petapascal energy densities controls the fate of late-stage stars and the potential for controlling thermonuclear inertial fusion ignition. Time-resolved x-ray self-emission imaging combined with a Bayesian inference analysis is used to describe the energy flow and the potential information stored in the rebounding spherical shock at 0.22 PPa (2.2 Gbar or billions of atmospheres pressure). This analysis, together with a simple mechanical model, describes the trajectory of the shell and the time history of the pressure at the fuel-shell interface, ablation pressure, and energy partitioning including kinetic energy of the shell and internal energy of the fuel. Here, the techniques used here provide a fully self-consistent uncertainty analysis of integrated implosion data, a thermodynamic-path independent measurement of pressure in the petapascal range, and can be used to deduce the energy ow in a wide variety of implosion systems to petapascal energy densities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep Electric Field Predictions by Drift-Reduced Braginskii Theory with Plasma-Neutral Interactions Based on Experimental Images of Boundary Turbulence

We present 2-dimensional turbulent electric field calculations via physics-informed deep learning consistent with (i) drift-reduced Braginskii theory under the framework of an axisymmetric fusion plasma with purely toroidal field and (ii) experimental estimates of the fluctuating electron density and temperature on open field lines obtained from analysis of gas puff imaging of a discharge on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The inclusion of effects from the locally puffed atomic helium on particle and energy sources within the reduced plasma turbulence model are found to strengthen correlations between the electric field and electron pressure. The neutrals are also directly associated with broadening the distribution of turbulent field amplitudes and increasing ${\bf E \times B}$ shearing rates. As a result, this demonstrates a novel approach in plasma experiments by solving for nonlinear dynamics consistent with partial differential equations and data without encoding explicit boundary nor initial conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Speed of sound in methane under conditions of planetary interiors

We present direct observations of acoustic waves in warm dense matter. We analyze wave-number- and energy-resolved x-ray spectra taken from warm dense methane created by laser heating a cryogenic liquid jet. X-ray diffraction and inelastic free-electron scattering yield sample conditions of 0.3 ± 0.1 eV and 0.8 ± 0.1 g/ cm − 3 , corresponding to a pressure of ∼ 13 GPa. Inelastic x-ray scattering was used to observe the collective oscillations of the ions. With a highly improved energy resolution of ∼ 50 meV, we could clearly distinguish the Brillouin peaks from the quasielastic Rayleigh feature. Data at different wave numbers were utilized to derive a sound speed of 5.9 ± 0.5 km/s, marking a high-temperature data point for methane and demonstrating consistency with Birch's law in this parameter regime. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Task Based Approach for Co-Scheduling Ensemble Workloads on Heterogeneous Nodes

Scientific workflows consist of multiple, connected applications, with data and results flowing from one to another in a pipeline. Traditionally, such workflows are executed in sequential order, storing intermediate data in storage disks. Co-scheduling application workflows concurrently on the same compute nodes would greatly reduce the cost of moving data to/from storage and allow real-time analysis of intermediate results. Nevertheless, most parallel programming runtimes do not allow seamless integration of various applications in a scientific workflow, in part due to the complexity of managing data and resources. The situation is even more complicated for heterogeneous systems. In this work we extend the Minos Computing Library (MCL) runtime to accelerate pipe-lined and parallel workloads where multiple applications are running in the same system. MCL’s asynchronous task library and runtime dynamically manages resources to allow co-scheduling of multiple processes sharing heterogeneous resources. In addition, we design a custom ex- tension of the Open Compute Language (OpenCL) to enable multiple processes to share device memory. We enable MCL to coordinate these shared buffers to allow for easy, fast data sharing between applications. Using malleable micro-benchmarks and two application workflows that combine scientific simulation and AI-based analysis, we show that our method outperforms traditional approaches.

Index Terms—Parallel systems, Scheduling and Task ↗

DOE OSTI2024

So you think you can track?

This work introduces a multi-camera tracking dataset consisting of 234 hours of video data recorded concurrently from 234 overlapping HD cameras covering a 4.2 mile stretch of 8-10 lane interstate highway near Nashville, TN. Video is recorded in cooperation with Tennessee State Department of Transportation and its policies. The video is recorded during a period of high traffic density with 500+ objects typically visible within the scene and typical object longevities of 3-15 minutes. GPS trajectories from 270 vehicle passes through the scene are manually corrected in the video data to provide a set of ground-truth trajectories for recall-oriented tracking metrics, and object detections are provided for each camera in the scene (159 million total before cross-camera fusion). Initial benchmarking of tracking-by-detection algorithms is performed against the GPS trajectories, and a best HOTA of only 9.5% is obtained (best recall 75.9% at IOU 0.1, 47.9 average IDs per ground truth object), indicating the benchmarked trackers do not perform sufficiently well at the long temporal and spatial durations required for traffic scene understanding. Video data, scene information, and vehicle trajectories are made publicly available at i24motion.org.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Certification of Uranium Isotope Amount Ratios in a Suite of Uranium Ore Concentrate Certified Reference Materials

Here, in this study, data from thirteen laboratories from around the world are presented for a successful certification of uranium isotope ratios in uranium ore concentrate (UOC) certified reference materials from the National Research Council Canada. Different mass spectrometric measurement principles (including SF-ICP-MS, quadruple ICP-MS, TIMS, MC-ICP-MS, SIMS and AMS) and measurement procedures were employed. In general, data from all sources exhibit good consistency with TIMS and MC-ICP-MS showing superior performance. The three candidate UOC CRMs (UCLO-1, UCHI-1 and UPER-1) have natural uranium isotope ratios with certified values of 0.5304(7) x 10 -4 , 0.5475(2) x 10 -4 and 0.5361(4) x 10 -4 for n( 234 U)/n( 238 U) and 0.007 2563(13), 0.007 2563(10) and 0.007 2542(11) for n( 235 U)/n( 238 U), respectively, with expanded uncertainty (k = 2) applicable to the last digit of the value given in the parentheses. Information values for n( 236 U)/n( 238 U) in these three CRMs, measured by AMS, are also provided: 10 x 10 -12 , 200 x 10 -12 and 22 x 10 -12 . The uncertainties of the proposed certified values of uranium isotope ratios in UOC CRMs are superior to available reference materials, and the values of n( 234 U)/n( 238 U) and n( 236 U)/n( 238 U) show significant variation among the three CRMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Disruption of Brachypodium lichenase alters metabolism of mixed‐linkage glucan and starch

Mixed-linkage glucan, which is widely distributed in grasses, is a polysaccharide highly abundant in cell walls of grass endosperm and young vegetative tissues. Lichenases are enzymes that hydrolyze mixed-linkage glucan first identified in mixed-linkage glucan-rich lichens. In this study, we identify a gene encoding a lichenase we name Brachypodium distachyon LICHENASE 1 (BdLCH1), which is highly expressed in the endosperm of germinating seeds and coleoptiles and at lower amounts in mature shoots. RNA in situ hybridization showed that BdLCH1 is primarily expressed in chlorenchyma cells of mature leaves and internodes. Disruption of BdLCH1 resulted in an eight-fold increase in mixed-linkage glucan content in senesced leaves. Consistent with the in situ hybridization data, immunolocalization results showed that mixed-linkage glucan was not removed in chlorenchyma cells of lch1 mutants as it was in wild type and implicate the BdLCH1 enzyme in removing mixed-linkage glucan in chlorenchyma cells in mature vegetative tissues. We also show that mixed-linkage glucan accumulation in lch1 mutants was resistant to dark-induced degradation, and 8-week-old lch1 plants showed a faster rate of starch breakdown than wild type in darkness. Here our results suggest a role for BdLCH1 in modifying the cell wall to support highly metabolically active cells.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Isothermal Microcalorimetric Analysis of Li/CF x Battery Discharge

Lithium/carbon monofluoride (Li/CF x ) batteries generate substantial amounts of heat during discharge in part due to the large deviation of the loaded voltage from the measured and thermodynamically predicted open circuit voltage. Here, in this study, we further analyze this system by estimating the equilibrium voltage (V eq ) and its temperature dependence (dV eq /dT) over the entire discharge range. Based on these results, the ohmic and entropic heat contributions to the overall heat flow are calculated from experimental data. The ohmic heat flow is consistent with an electrochemical impedance spectroscopy model and electrode density measurements, indicating decreasing porosity of the electrode during discharge. Entropic heating increases during discharge as the cell reaction becomes increasingly entropically unfavorable. The total energy dissipated by the cell (electrical and thermal) remains similar over the entire discharge, evidence for a two-phase reaction with a constant, and rate-independent, ΔG rxn of about -465 kJ mol -1 . However, near the end of discharge (>90% DOD), ΔG rxn changes significantly indicating possible secondary reactions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Neurodata Extensions Catalog (NDX Catalog) v1.0.0

The Neurodata Extensions Catalog (NDX Catalog) is a novel web archive and associated software tools that enable users to easily create, search for, test, review, and install extensions to the Neurodata Without Borders (NWB) data standard for neurophysiology. The Catalog consists of several software repositories that can be found at https://github.com/nwb-extensions.

Tritt, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards Improving luminosity using optics tuning and data-driven methods

The results of Run 24 experiments at Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) for improving luminosity using optics tuning are presented in this study. In the first experiment, MADx matching was used to output magnet strengths corresponding to specific s star movements around Interaction Region 8 (IR8). The corresponding Zero Degree Calorimeter (ZDC) signal was measured in place of luminosity, and Bayesian Optimization aids search of optimal movements. It was found that values retrieved from matching were inaccurate, resulting in negative feedback loops. The second experiment focused on calculating accurate s star movements. The matching method was replaced with a linear sensitivity matrix, directly relating optics to power supply, and its null space was used to fit constraints such as hysteresis effects. At the experiment, beam losses were observed at collimators around boundary of IR8, which were fixed for the third experiment. Dynamic mode decomposition was also introduced to improve quality of turn-by-turn (TBT) data as well as accuracy and consistency of optics measurements at IR8. These improvements will be tested in the experiment of next RHIC run for luminosity optimization.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Crosslink V.0.11.x User Manual

CrossLink is a novel two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometry and mesh generation software package developed by the Simulation Tools team at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This software represents the third generation of topology-based mesh generation technology developed by the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy with a special focus on complex multi-material hydrodynamic applications, mesh scalability, and high-order element mesh generation. The topology-based meshing approach offered by CrossLink enables users to quickly and easily mesh complex geometries in a repeatable and robust manner. CrossLink’s topology-based meshing approach is well-suited for parametric design studies, parametric design optimization, damage scenario assessment, and iterative design modification (i.e. feature addition and/or removal). CrossLink’s python API allows workflow scripting of the geometry creation and mesh generation process for traceability, repeatability, data provenance, and version control. CrossLink consists of three main components: a graphical user interface (GUI), a geometry creation and mesh generation engine, and a python API that provides a workflow scripting interface to the geometry and meshing functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Update on NNL TSL Evaluations and Validation [Slides]

12 new/revised TSL evaluations were contributed to ENDF/B-VIII.1. The thermal diffusion length $L$ is an integral property of a single material’s absorption and scattering cross sections (both differential and integral). No other neutron reactions or materials are involved. The MC21-calculated $L$ for water is consistent with the spread of experimental data and is sufficiently sensitive to different H-H 2 O TSL physics models to use the method as a TSL integral performance benchmark. Modern high-quality diffusion experiments at elevated $T$ would allow direct low-cost physics benchmarking of water TSLs when public elevated-$T$ critical benchmarks are limited. NNL is working with LLNL and RPI to develop experimental PNDA capability. An ICSBEP Fundamental Physics benchmark of the Nassar and Murphy PNDA experiment is being developed to provide an example of how to evaluate these type of benchmarks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗