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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2017

High-Performance First-Principles Molecular Dynamics for Predictive Theory and Modeling

This project focused on developing high-performance software tools for First-Principles Molecular Dynamics (FPMD) simulations, and applying them in investigations of materials relevant to energy conversion processes. FPMD is an atomistic simulation method that combines a quantum-mechanical description of electronic structure with the statistical description provided by molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. This reliance on fundamental principles allows FPMD simulations to provide a consistent description of structural, dynamical and electronic properties of a material. This is particularly useful in systems for which reliable empirical models are lacking. FPMD simulations are increasingly used as a predictive tool for applications such as batteries, solar energy conversion, light-emitting devices, electro-chemical energy conversion devices and other materials. During the course of the project, several new features were developed and added to the open-source Qbox FPMD code. The code was further optimized for scalable operation of large-scale, Leadership-Class DOE computers. When combined with Many-Body Perturbation Theory (MBPT) calculations, this infrastructure was used to investigate structural and electronic properties of liquid water, ice, aqueous solutions, nanoparticles and solid-liquid interfaces. Computing both ionic trajectories and electronic structure in a consistent manner enabled the simulation of several spectroscopic properties, such as Raman spectra, infrared spectra, and sum-frequency generation spectra. The accuracy of the approximations used allowed for direct comparisons of results with experimental data such as optical spectra, X-ray and neutron diffraction spectra. The software infrastructure developed in this project, as applied to various investigations of solids, liquids and interfaces, demonstrates that FPMD simulations can provide a detailed, atomic-scale picture of structural, vibrational and electronic properties of complex systems relevant to energy conversion devices.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2012

Evolutionary Drift Models for Moving Target Defense

One of the biggest challenges faced by cyber defenders is that attacks evolve more rapidly than our ability to recognize them. We propose a moving target defense concept in which the means of detection is set in motion. This is done by moving away from static signature-based detection and instead adopting biological modeling techniques that describe families of related sequences. We present here one example for how to apply evolutionary models to cyber sequences, and demonstrate the feasibility of this technique on analysis of a complex, evolving software project. Specifically, we applied sequence-based and profile-based evolutionary models and report the ability of these models to recognize highly volatile code regions. We found that different drift models reliably identify different types of evolutionarily related code regions. The impact is that these (and possibly other) evolutionary models could be used in a moving target defense in which the "signature" being used to detect sequence-based behaviors is not a fixed signature but one that can recognize new variants of a known family based on multiple evolutionary models.

Oehmen, Christopher S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Design Patterns: A Structured Approach to Resilience at Extreme Scale (V.2.0)

Reliability is a serious concern for future extreme-scale high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Projections based on the current generation of HPC systems and technology roadmaps suggest the prevalence of very high fault rates in future systems. The errors resulting from these faults will propagate and generate various kinds of failures, which may result in outcomes ranging from result corruptions to catastrophic application crashes. Therefore, the resilience challenge for extreme-scale HPC systems requires coordination between various hardware and software technologies that are capable of handling a broad set of fault models at accelerated fault rates. Also, due to practical limits on power consumption in future HPC systems, they are likely to embrace innovative architectures, increasing the levels of hardware and software complexities. Therefore, the techniques that seek to improve resilience must navigate the complex trade-off space between resilience and the overheads to power consumption and performance. While the HPC community has developed various resilience solutions, application-level techniques as well as system-based solutions, the solution space of HPC resilience techniques remains fragmented. There are no formal methods to integrate the various HPC resilience techniques into composite solutions, nor are there methods to holistically evaluate the adequacy and efficacy of such solutions in terms of their protection coverage, and their performance & power efficiency characteristics. Additionally, few implementations of current resilience solutions are portable to newer architectures and software environments that will be deployed on future systems. We developed a new structured approach to the management of HPC resilience using the concept of resilience-based design patterns. In general, a design pattern is a repeatable solution to a commonly occurring problem. We identified the well-known solutions that are commonly used to deal with faults, errors and failures in HPC systems. In the initial design patterns specification (version 1.0), we described the various solutions, which address specific problems in the design of resilient HPC environments, in the form of patterns. Each pattern describes a problem caused by a fault, error or failure event in an HPC environment, and then describes the core of the solution of the problem in such a way that this solution may be adapted to different systems and implemented at different layers of the system stack. The catalog of these resilience design patterns provides designers with a collection of design elements. To construct complete resilience solutions using combinations of various patterns, we defined a framework that enhances HPC designers' understanding of the important constraints and the opportunities for the design patterns to be implemented and deployed at various layers of the system stack. The design framework is also useful for establishing interfaces and mechanisms to coordinate flexible fault management across hardware and software components, as well as to consider the trade-off between performance, resilience, and power consumption when constructing a solution. The resilience design patterns specification version 1.1 included more detailed explanations of the pattern solutions, the context in which the patterns are applicable, and the implications for hardware or software design. It also provided several additional examples and detailed case studies to demonstrate the use of patterns to build realistic solutions. In version 1.2 of the specification document, we have improved the pattern descriptions, including graphical representations of the pattern components. These improvements are largely based on critical comments, feedback and suggestions received from pattern experts and readers of the previous versions of the specification. The pattern classification has been modified to further clarify the relationships between pattern categories. This version of the specification also introduces a pattern language for resilience design patterns. The pattern language presents the patterns in the catalog as a network, revealing the relations among the resilience patterns. The language provides designers with the means to explore alternative techniques for handling a specific fault model that may have different efficiency and complexity characteristics. Using the pattern language also enables the design and implementation of comprehensive resilience solutions as a set of interconnected resilience patterns that can be instantiated across layers of the system stack. The overall goal of this work is to provide hardware and software designers, as well as the users and operators of HPC systems, a systematic methodology for the design and evaluation of resilience technologies in HPC systems that keep scientific applications running to a correct solution in a timely and cost-efficient manner despite frequent faults, errors, and failures of various types. Version 2.0 expands the resilience design pattern classification and catalog to include self-stabilization patterns and reliability, availability and performance models for each structural pattern.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Drive Technologies Research: ELT223 Component Modeling, Co-Optimization, and Trade-Space Evaluation Annual Report

This project is intended to support the development of new traction drive systems that meet the targets of 100 kW/L for power electronics and 50 kW/L for electric machines with reliable operation to 300,000 miles. To meet these goals, new designs must be identified that make use of state-of-the-art and next-generation electronic materials and design methods. Designs must exploit synergies between components, for example converters designed for high-frequency switching using wide band gap (WBG) devices and ceramic capacitors. This project included: (1) a survey of available technologies; (2) investigating new technologies, that for example, reduce volume of thermal management or magnetic components; (3) the development of computer aided design tools that consider the converter volume, reliability, and electrical performance; (4) exercising the design software to evaluate performance gaps and predict the impact of certain technologies and design approaches, i.e. GaN semiconductors, ceramic capacitors, ceramic thermal management components, and select topologies; (5) building and testing hardware prototypes to validate models and concepts. The design tools enable co-optimization of the power module and passive elements and provide some design guidance. At the end of the project, new advanced computing methods, such as machine learning approaches, were considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Area 2: Inexpensive Monitoring and Uncertainty Assessment of CO 2 Plume Migration using Injection Data

In-depth understanding of the long-term fate of CO₂ in the subsurface requires study and analysis of the reservoir formation, the overlaying caprock formation, and adjacent faults. Because there is significant uncertainty in predicting the location and extent of geologic heterogeneity that can impact the future migration of CO₂ in the subsurface, there is a need to develop algorithms that can reliably quantify this uncertainty in plume migration. This project is focused on the development of a model selection algorithm that refines an initial suite of subsurface models representing the prior uncertainty to create a posterior set of subsurface models that reflect injection performance consistent with that observed. Such posterior models can be used to represent uncertainty in the future migration of the CO₂ plume. Because only injection data is required, the method provides a very inexpensive method to map the migration of the plume and the associated uncertainty in migration paths. The model selection method developed as part of this project mainly consists of assessing the connectivity/dynamic characteristics of a large prior ensemble of models, grouping the models on the basis of their expected dynamic response, selecting the subgroup of models that most closely yield dynamic response closest to the observed dynamic data, and finally quantifying the uncertainty in plume migration using the selected subset of models. The main accomplishment of the project is the development of a software module within the SGEMS earth modeling software package that implements the model selection methodology. This software module was subsequently applied to analyze CO₂ plume migration in two field projects – the In Salah CO₂ Injection project in Algeria and CO₂ injection into the Utsira formation in Norway. These applications of the software revealed that the proxies developed in this project for quickly assessing the dynamic characteristics of the reservoir were highly efficient and yielded accurate grouping of reservoir models. The plume migration paths probabilistically assessed by the method were confirmed by field observations and auxiliary data. The report also documents the application of the software to answer practical questions such as the optimum location of monitoring wells to reliably assess the migration of CO₂ plume, the effect of CO₂-rock interactions on plume migration and the ability to detect the plume under those conditions and the effect of a slow, unresolved leak on the predictions of plume migration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Homogenizing Advanced Alloys: Thermodynamic and Kinetic Simulations Followed by Experimental Results

Segregation of solute elements occurs in nearly all metal alloys during solidification. The resultant elemental partitioning can severely degrade as-cast material properties and lead to difficulties during post-processing (e.g., hot shorts and incipient melting). Many cast articles are subjected to a homogenization heat treatment in order to minimize segregation and improve their performance. Traditionally, homogenization heat treatments are based upon past practice or time-consuming trial and error experiments. Through the use of thermodynamic and kinetic modeling software, NETL has designed a systematic method to optimize homogenization heat treatments. Use of the method allows engineers and researchers to homogenize casting chemistries to levels appropriate for a given application. The method also allows for the adjustment of heat treatment schedules to fit limitations on in-house equipment (capability, reliability, etc.) while maintaining clear numeric targets for segregation reduction. In this approach, the Scheil module within Thermo-Calc is used to predict the as-cast segregation present within an alloy, and then diffusion controlled transformations is used to model homogenization kinetics as a function of time and temperature. Examples of computationally designed heat treatments and verification of their effects on segregation and properties of real castings are presented.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Assessment of Structural Integrity

A probability-based approach, combining deterministic and probabilistic methods, was developed for analyzing building and component failures, which are especially crucial for complex structures like nuclear power plants. This method links finite element and probabilistic software to assess structural integrity under static and dynamic loads. This study uses NEPTUNE software, which is validated, for a deterministic transient analysis and ProFES software for probabilistic models. In a case study, deterministic analyses with varied random variables were transferred to ProFES for probabilistic analyses of piping failure and wall damage. A Monte Carlo Simulation, First-Order Reliability Method, and combined methods were employed for probabilistic analyses under severe transient loading, focusing on a postulated accident at the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant. The study considered uncertainties in material properties, component geometry, and loads. The results showed the Monte Carlo Simulation method to be conservative for high failure probabilities but less so for low probabilities. The Response Surface/Monte Carlo Simulation method explored the impact load–failure probability relationship. Given the uncertainties in material properties and loads in complex structures, a deterministic analysis alone is insufficient. Probabilistic analysis is imperative for extreme loading events and credible structural safety evaluations.

Mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2016

Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Phase 3 Gearbox 3 Test

The GRC uses a combined gearbox testing, modeling, and analysis approach disseminating data and results to the industry and facilitating improvement of gearbox reliability. This test data describes the tests of GRC gearbox 3 in the National Wind Technology Center dynamometer and documents any modifications to the original test plan. It serves as a guide to interpret the publicly released data sets with brief analyses to illustrate the data. TDMS viewer and Solidworks software required to view data files. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC) was established by the U.S. Department of Energy in 2006; its key goal is to understand the root causes of premature gearbox failures and improve their reliability.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

A Numerical Tool for the Design of Enhanced Geothermal Reservoirs based on Modeling of Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical Processes and Explicit Representation of 3D Discrete Fracture Networks

This project has developed a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical numerical modeling tool for prediction of energy production from Enhanced Geothermal Reservoirs (EGS). The tool is unique because it can explicitly represent thousands of pre-existing natural fractures. The capabilities developed in this project were built on the already existing expertise of Itasca arising from thirty years of research and development in discrete element modeling of fractured rocks. A thermal module suitable for analysis of different heat transfer mechanisms in fractured rocks percolated by fluids was developed and coupled with the already existing hydro-mechanical calculation in 3DEC, a commercial software for analysis of jointed rock based on the discrete element method (DEM). The heat transfer module simulates heat conduction, heat advection by moving fluid in rock fractures, and convective heat exchange at the fracture walls between the rock and the moving fluid. Techniques for spatial discretization of heat transfer in EGS-type problems were evaluated, and a boundary layer meshing approach was developed. Also, given the significant differences in time scale of physical processes involved, temporal integration schemes for coupled advection-diffusion processes and coupled thermal-hydro-mechanical processes were developed by taking advantage of both implicit and explicit time integration and also optimizing the coupling intervals. These improvements were necessary for modeling EGS reservoirs. Also, the DFN capacities in 3DEC were extended to include a larger number of fractures. Research was carried out on approaches to simplify the DFN so that the model can meet computational demands, while preserving thermo-hydro-mechanical characteristics of the DFN. The developed modules were coupled with the already existing capabilities of 3DEC. The results were presented as a submitted conference paper (Riahi et al., 2018a). A series of benchmark and test examples showed the developed capabilities. Finally, the developed tool was tested for a large-scale reservoir model for longer periods of injection and production. The thermal draw-down curves were generated and presented. The project successfully met all the milestones laid out in the proposal. Results demonstrated the feasibility of developing a fast and reliable software for the EGS community to use for assessment and prediction of reservoir performance. Some of its applications include assessment of stimulated volume and produced temperature and power. It can also be used for improved engineering, design and optimization of EGS reservoirs as well as other unconventional resources such as shale gas. Finally, the 3D analysis presented in this study showed that simulating EGS reservoirs with tens of thousands of fractures is feasible, and confirmed that the developed tool can serve toward meeting the goals and objectives of Geothermal Technologies Office in overcoming technical barriers associated with commercial EGS development.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling receiver flux of commercial power tower concentrating solar power plants using ray tracing: a round-robin comparison of SolTrace, Solstice, and TieSOL

This study presents a multi-stage, cross-validation comparison of three software packages for Monte Carlo ray tracing (MCRT) applied to central tower concentrating solar power (CSP) systems. The three packages evaluated are: (1) SolTrace, an open-source tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); (2) Solstice, an open-source program created by CNRS-PROMES and Meso-Star, with enhancements for CSP applications (called solsticepy) from the Australian National University; and (3) TieSOL, a commercial software developed by Tietronix. This investigation extends previous ray tracing comparisons by incorporating models of multi-facet heliostats within a commercial-scale solar field, taking into account zoned focal lengths and canting configurations. Receiver flux distributions were compared across the tools using a series of case studies, including single-heliostat scenarios, isolated blocking situations, and comprehensive full-field simulations. The case studies were designed to diagnose differences across the models at varying levels of complexity, and to identify and resolve discrepancies as additional parameters were introduced. Key factors examined in the analysis include sun positions, heliostat location, facet and canting focus, and aimpoint strategies. The comparison aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of these tools while providing benchmark cases for validating future optical modeling tools.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Application of quantitative methods for reliability testing of a nuclear power plant digital rod position indication diagnostic system - 391

Obsolescence, aging, reliability, and performance issues are driving nuclear facilities to replace conventional analog Instrumentation and Control (I and C) systems with digital technologies. In addition, the designs of the next generation of nuclear reactors, including Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), will incorporate digital I and C for most, if not all, of their safety and non-safety related functions. As part of an on-going research and development (R and D) effort under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Analysis and Measurement Services Corporation (AMS) is developing a platform to provide automated testing of digital I and C systems and create a standard method of evaluation for reliability assessments. This hands-on R and D effort has produced a Software Reliability Tester (SRT), which is a set of software and hardware tools designed to automate the testing of digital I and C systems to measure and quantify how well the systems perform under normal operating conditions and in the presence of faults. Furthermore, the SRT provides the foundation for a practical tool to automate verification and validation (V and V) activities and reduce the amount of testing time of digital I and C systems. When combined with its capabilities of integrating both reliability and fault tolerance quantification, the SRT can be used to ensure that digital I and C implementations are both safe and cost-effective for the nuclear industry. This paper describes the application of the SRT to perform V and V of a new Digital Rod Position Indication (DRPI) diagnostic system. The DRPI diagnostic system is a digital system that monitors the rod address and rod position data bus voltages of typical DRPI systems in nuclear power plants to detect and diagnose faults. For this application, the SRT was configured to exercise the inputs of the DRPI diagnostic system, and test cases were generated for common system faults such as address and data bit errors, bus voltage, and timing problems. These test cases were applied by the SRT hardware as voltage inputs to the DRPI diagnostic system and the outputs were compared to expected values generated by a model of the DRPI diagnostic system. Included in the paper is a description of the overall design of the SRT including the hardware and software architectures. Methodologies for automating test cases are also described. V and V using the SRT demonstrates the benefits of automated testing and qualification to provide a quantitative assessment of reliability and cost effective implementation of digital I and C in existing and next generation nuclear power plants. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

An Innovative Software Tool Suite for Power Plant Model Validation and Parameter Calibration using PMU Measurements

Maintaining good quality of power plant stability models is of critical importance to ensure the secure and economic operation and planning of today’s power grid with its increasing stochastic and dynamic behavior. According to North American Electric Reliability (NERC) standards, all generators in North America with capacities larger than 10 MVA are required to validate their models every five years. Validation is quite costly and can significantly affect the revenue of generator owners, because the traditional staged testing requires generators to be taken offline. Over the past few years, validating and calibrating parameters using online measurements including phasor measurement units (PMUs) and digital fault recorders (DFRs) has been proven to be a cost-effective approach. In this paper, an innovative open-source tool suite is presented for validating power plant models using PPMV tool, identifying bad parameters with trajectory sensitivity analysis, and finally calibrating parameters using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) based algorithm. The architectural design and the detailed procedures to run the tool suite are presented, with results of test on a realistic hydro power plant using PMU measurements for 12 different events. The calibrated parameters of machine, exciter, governor and PSS models demonstrate much better performance than the original models for all the events and show the robustness of the proposed calibration algorithm.

Li, Yuanyuan↗

DOE OSTI2012

DEVELOPMENT OF A SOFTWARE DESIGN TOOL FOR HYBRID SOLAR-GEOTHERMAL HEAT PUMP SYSTEMS IN HEATING- AND COOLING-DOMINATED BUILDINGS

This project provides an easy-to-use, menu-driven, software tool for designing hybrid solar-geothermal heat pump systems (GHP) for both heating- and cooling-dominated buildings. No such design tool currently exists. In heating-dominated buildings, the design approach takes advantage of glazed solar collectors to effectively balance the annual thermal loads on the ground with renewable solar energy. In cooling-dominated climates, the design approach takes advantage of relatively low-cost, unglazed solar collectors as the heat rejecting component. The primary benefit of hybrid GHPs is the reduced initial cost of the ground heat exchanger (GHX). Furthermore, solar thermal collectors can be used to balance the ground loads over the annual cycle, thus making the GHX fully sustainable; in heating-dominated buildings, the hybrid energy source (i.e., solar) is renewable, in contrast to a typical fossil fuel boiler or electric resistance as the hybrid component; in cooling-dominated buildings, use of unglazed solar collectors as a heat rejecter allows for passive heat rejection, in contrast to a cooling tower that consumes a significant amount of energy to operate, and hybrid GHPs can expand the market by allowing reduced GHX footprint in both heating- and cooling-dominated climates. The design tool allows for the straight-forward design of innovative GHP systems that currently pose a significant design challenge. The project lays the foundations for proper and reliable design of hybrid GHP systems, overcoming a series of difficult and cumbersome steps without the use of a system simulation approach, and without an automated optimization scheme. As new technologies and design concepts emerge, sophisticated design tools and methodologies must accompany them and be made usable for practitioners. Lack of reliable design tools results in reluctance of practitioners to implement more complex systems. A menu-driven software tool for the design of hybrid solar GHP systems is provided that is based on mathematically robust, validated models. An automated optimization tool is used to balance ground loads and incorporated into the simulation engine. With knowledge of the building loads, thermal properties of the ground, the borehole heat exchanger configuration, the heat pump peak hourly and seasonal COP for heating and cooling, the critical heat pump design entering fluid temperature, and the thermal performance of a solar collector, the total GHX length can be calculated along with the area of a supplemental solar collector array and the corresponding reduced GHX length. An economic analysis module allows for the calculation of the lowest capital cost combination of solar collector area and GHX length. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This project was funded by the United States Department of Energy DOE-DE-FOA-0000116, Recovery Act Geothermal Technologies Program: Ground Source Heat Pumps. The lead contractor, The University of Hartford, was supported by The University of Dayton, and the Oak Ridge National Laboratories. All funding and support for this project as well as contributions of graduate and undergraduate students from the contributing institutions are gratefully acknowledged.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2012

Hybrid Solar GHP Simulator

Yavuzturk, Cy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers

This report presents the development of tools and methods for evaluating the reliability and performance of ceramic materials in high temperature solar receivers. As Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies aim for higher operating temperatures to enhance efficiency and meet industrial process heat requirements, current high temperature metallic materials face challenges in maintaining structural integrity. This report explores advanced ceramics as a promising alternative, given their superior high temperature strength and lower thermal expansion, compared to metals. To address the need for effective ceramic receiver design tools, this report integrates statistical failure models of ceramics into the existing srlife tool: an open-source software package designed to estimate the life of high temperature CSP components. These failure models account for the inherent variability and flaw distribution in ceramics, as well as the impact of subcritical crack growth under high temperature cyclic loads. The report also presents experimental data collected for a commercially available ceramic material, SiC, and details the process of estimating reliability model parameters from these data. A comparative design analysis is then performed between ceramic (SiC) and metallic (current nickel-based superalloys A740H and A282) receiver. This comparison demonstrates that SiC receivers can achieve service life exceeding 30 years under high incident heat flux conditions, compared to just a few years for metallic receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automating Bug Report Classification with Few Shot Learning

Orthogonal defect classification (ODC) is a method used to categorize software defects, providing valuable insights into the development process. This study focuses on automating the classification of software bug reports into different ODC defect types using few shot learning, a machine learning approach that requires minimal labeled data. Previous research has manually classified bug reports or used traditional machine learning algorithms like linear support vector machine, achieving limited success. Our approach uses few shot learning to improve classification accuracy and efficiency. The results show a harmonic mean of recall and precision (i.e., the F1 score) of around 0.6 which is a performance improvement over previous methods. The results highlight the potential benefit of few shot learning techniques and their application in enhancing the safety and reliability of nuclear digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems. Future work will explore incorporating advanced techniques to supplement the model's training data and achieve better results.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Use of Time Distributions to Predict Operator Procedure Performance in Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

The Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework affords software capable of conducting human reliability analysis (HRA) using a dynamic approach built around operating procedures (OPs) from nuclear power plants (NPPs). Previous HUNTER reports document the development of this software tool, the coupling of HUNTER to the simulator code, the collection of operator performance data by using simulators to calibrate HUNTER models, and linking HUNTER to probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) software. The present report largely addresses two topics. The first is a new function in HUNTER called the HUNTER Procedure Performance Predictor (P3). HUNTER P3 uses HUNTER’s built in Monte Carlo tools featuring human performance variability to identify potential error traps in procedures. The second topic is time distribution analysis to generate time inputs for dynamic HRA. The current analysis was performed to investigate time distributions for task primitives, which are the minimum task unit of analysis used in dynamic HRA modeling. Using the time distribution data, the elapsed time for human actions in an extended loss of AC power (ELAP) scenario is then investigated. Time data and prediction are essential for modeling procedure performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grid-Supportive Loads - A New Approach to Increasing Renewable Energy in Power Systems

This paper demonstrates the potential of inverter-based loads to support grid reliability during power system transients thereby enabling reliable integration of renewable energy in power systems. Such loads are referred to in this paper as grid-supportive loads (GSLs). A new GSL model is developed that simulates the transient response capabilities that can be programmed in electronic loads. The model’s design enables it to be easily integrated in widely used commercial power system transient analysis software. Theoretical expressions are derived that explain the workings of the GSL model. The performance, numerical stability, and impact of the GSL model is validated on 9-bus and 2000-bus synthetic power system models using generator tripping and bus fault disturbances. Results on the 2000 bus system show that in the absence of frequency support from wind/solar generation resources, just 20% of loads with grid-supportive capabilities can improve frequency response by up to 2000 MW/0.1 Hz and reduce deviation in frequency at nadir by up to 60% compared to the situation when GSLs are absent. Power system reliability also improves under fault events. Here, it is further shown that GSLs can aid in integrating more renewable generation without degrading the overall transient response of the power system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗