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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

A Design for Remanufacturing Framework Incorporating Identification, Evaluation, and Validation: A Case Study of Hydraulic Manifold

In recent years, academic researchers and engineers in the industry have widely recognized the necessity of integrating remanufacturing considerations into product design iterations to advance sustainability objectives. Acknowledging the importance of design for remanufacturing (DfRem), efforts were made to develop tools and guidelines that could be implemented in practice. However, such methods largely rely upon experiential insights and qualitative assessments, leaving a gap in the ability to quantitatively assess the economic and environmental impacts of design choices. To bridge this gap, we investigate existing efforts and present a framework for DfRem that integrates established design and remanufacturing practices into a cohesive workflow with quantitative assessments. To demonstrate its efficacy for making practical design changes for remanufacturing, we apply the framework to a hydraulic manifold in a transmission system for heavy-duty tractors. Through this industry-relevant case study, we focus on showcasing the practical utility of our framework. Based on the identified design modifications from remanufacturability analysis, we estimate the reductions in life cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions. Afterward, the modifications are tested using physical experiments with plans for integration into future iterations of the hydraulic manifold design and production. Here, we anticipate this framework can illustrate the process of remanufacturing that ensures improvements in sustainability while maintaining performance and reliability standards.

design for X↗

DOE OSTI2023

Use of machine learning to analyze chemistry card sort tasks

Education researchers are deeply interested in understanding the way students organize their knowledge. Card sort tasks, which require students to group concepts, are one mechanism to infer a student’s organizational strategy. However, the limited resolution of card sort tasks means they necessarily miss some of the nuance in a student’s strategy. Here in this work, we propose new machine learning strategies that leverage a potentially richer source of student thinking: free-form written language justifications associated with student sorts. Using data from a university chemistry card sort task, we use vectorized representations of language and unsupervised learning techniques to generate qualitatively interpretable clusters, which can provide unique insight in how students organize their knowledge. We compared these to machine learning analysis of the students’ sorts themselves. Machine learning-generated clusters revealed different organizational strategies than those built into the task; for example, sorts by difficulty or even discipline. There were also many more categories generated by machine learning for what we would identify as more novice-like sorts and justifications than originally built into the task, suggesting students’ organizational strategies converge when they become more expert-like. Finally, we learned that categories generated by machine learning for students’ justifications did not always match the categories for their sorts, and these cases highlight the need for future research on students’ organizational strategies, both manually and aided by machine learning. In sum, the use of machine learning to analyze results from a card sort task has helped us gain a more nuanced understanding of students’ expertise, and demonstrates a promising tool to add to existing analytic methods for card sorts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A detailed study of pre-heating effects in electron beam melting powder bed fusion process

Metal-based additive manufacturing processes, such as powder bed fusion with electron beam (PBF-EB) process, also referred to as electron beam melting (EBM), can produce high-density parts with minimal residual stresses due to the uniform and coherent preheating of the powder bed. However, understanding and controlling the multiple stages of preheating is required to enable the production of high-quality, consistent parts of various materials. This work presents a large-scale, multi-layer, three-dimensional numerical analysis focused on studying the preheating stages for predicting thermal history during the PBF-EB process. The model follows a continuous multi-stage cyclic process, that incorporates all the main stages of the PBF-EB process for 316 L stainless steel. This includes the gradual deposition of a new powder layer, the first and second preheating levels of the powder bed, and the energy deposition during melting (excluding the actual melt-pool behavior simulation). The model employs an adaptive time-scaling approach that automatically adjusts the energy deposition for each solution time-increment. This allows for localized changes in time-resolution over an otherwise computationally expensive multi-layer procedure. The material property variations are also taken into account, with an emphasis on the subtle irreversible changes in powder effective thermal conductivity after the two requisite preheating stages of the powder bed. This effect is studied using simplified conductivity models from the literature for partially sintered powder, validated by a dedicated experiment and numerical simulation. The large-scale model is then used to estimate the actual temperatures during first and second preheating levels for 316 L steel, which is not yet fully supported commercially for PBF-EB. Model predictions are corroborated by experiments, using and analyzing IR images, taken at the completion of each layer by the machine’s built-in infrared camera. The current model also incorporates a qualitative assessment for the effects of conductivity change during pre-heating, as well as evaluates the applicability of the time-scaling approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Polymers from Levoglucosenone and Other Anhydrosugars (CRADA Final Report)

The goal of this work is to identify promising drop-in or novel polymers that can be produced from levoglucosenone (LGO), CyreneTM, or other anhydrous sugars. LGO is a potentially important feedstock for polymers produced from renewable sources and can be produced in high yields by the company Circa from the pyrolysis of cellulose and biomass. NLR has a long history with anhydrosugars, pyrolysis and biomass-based polymers and has recently developed machine learning (ML) tools for predicting polymer properties. The DOE has recently supported efforts to identify coproducts from pyrolysis of biomass and their use in the production of performance advantaged polymers. DOE is also supporting the development of ML and molecular modeling for predicting and understanding polymer properties. NLR will leverage this expertise and experience to map out the pathways to polymers from LGO, use ML to identify the properties of novel polymers and estimate the market application space. From this effort NLR will deliver a summary report that outlines the most promising pathways based on quantitative and qualitative metrics for producing polymers from LGO.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cation–Ligand Interactions Dictate Salt Partitioning and Diffusivity in Ligand-Functionalized Polymer Membranes

Membranes are an attractive alternative to current thermal separations due to their scalability and energy efficiency in desalinating water. Unfortunately, many of the conventional membrane materials available today are unable to differentiate between ionic solutes, especially alkali cations, compromising their use in ion–ion separations. Inspired by the ion-specific interactions exhibited by biological ion channels, recent research efforts have focused on synthesizing and characterizing new polymeric materials that incorporate ligands into polymer networks to bias solubility and/or diffusivity of one cationic species over another. Despite these efforts, little is known about the influence of incorporating ligands into polymer membranes on solubility and diffusivity of the complexing species. In this study, we first build a qualitative model of salt partitioning, diffusivity, and permeability in generic cation-complexing ligand-functionalized polymer membranes. Next, to validate our model and hypotheses, we perform atomistic molecular dynamics simulations of a 12-crown-4-functionalized membrane in the presence of alkali halide salts at low concentration. Generally, cation complexation enhances cation solubility but decreases diffusivity. Interestingly, the reduction in diffusivity is predicted to be larger than the enhancement in solubility for materials which operate by the mechanisms proposed in our physical picture, ultimately resulting in a reduction in the permeability of the selectively complexing ion.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Meso- to microscale modeling of atmospheric stability effects on wind turbine wake behavior in complex terrain

Abstract. Terrain-induced flow phenomena modulate wind turbine performance and wake behavior in ways that are not adequately accounted for in typical wind turbine wake and wind plant design models. In this work, we simulate flow over two parallel ridges with a wind turbine on one of the ridges, focusing on conditions observed during the Perdigão field campaign in 2017. Two case studies are selected to be representative of typical flow conditions at the site, including the effects of atmospheric stability: a stable case where a mountain wave occurs (as in ∼ 50 % of the nights observed) and a convective case where a recirculation zone forms in the lee of the ridge with the turbine (as occurred over 50 % of the time with upstream winds normal to the ridgeline). We use the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), dynamically downscaled from the mesoscale (6.75 km resolution) to microscale large-eddy simulation (LES) at 10 m resolution, where a generalized actuator disk (GAD) wind turbine parameterization is used to simulate turbine wakes. We compare the WRF–LES–GAD model results to data from meteorological towers, lidars, and a tethered lifting system, showing good qualitative and quantitative agreement for both case studies. Significantly, the wind turbine wake shows different amounts of vertical deflection from the terrain and persistence downstream in the two stability regimes. In the stable case, the wake follows the terrain along with the mountain wave and deflects downwards by nearly 100 m below hub height at four rotor diameters downstream. In the convective case, the wake deflects above the recirculation zone over 40 m above hub height at the same downstream distance. Overall, the WRF–LES–GAD model is able to capture the observed behavior of the wind turbine wakes, demonstrating the model's ability to represent wakes over complex terrain for two distinct and representative atmospheric stability classes, and, potentially, to improve wind turbine siting and operation in hilly landscapes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of an E10 gasoline surrogate: Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of in-cylinder spray morphology

A minimum-component gasoline fuel surrogate that captures both chemical and physical behaviors of a full-distillate fuel is needed for high-fidelity CFD simulations. This study evaluates gasoline spray characteristics in a direct-injection spark-ignition engine under motored operation. Two fuels are compared; PACE-20, which is a 9-component surrogate formulation of RD5-87, is compared with its target fuel RD5-87, which is a full-boiling range research grade E10 gasoline. The spray morphologies of both fuels are recorded for a centrally-located direct-injection 8-hole spray subject to intake air cross-flow during the early part of the intake stroke. High-speed imaging recorded scattered light of the side and axial projections of the liquid spray. Quantitative metrics were developed and employed to facilitate comparison of spray morphologies as well as to identify the transition in spray morphology due to flash boiling. This paper builds on a previous study of RD5-87 where coolant temperature (20°C–100°C), in-cylinder pressure (40–110 kPa), engine speed (650–1950 rpm), and injection pressure (60–180 bar) were systematically changed to span operating conditions with and without flash boiling. Images of the PACE-20 morphology are selected for a sub-set of operating conditions from the previous study where distinctive morphology changes occurred. Visual inspection of the images and quantitative metrics demonstrate that the PACE-20 spray morphology is equivalent to that of the RD5-87 in most cases. The exception was for changes in the ambient-gas pressure where the flash-boiling transition occurred at ∼5 kPa higher in-cylinder pressure for PACE-20. Three empirical metrics, Merging Index, Asymmetry, and Flash Index are proposed here and they were found to be useful both as quantitative comparisons of the fuel morphologies, and for identifying the transition in spray morphology due to flash boiling.

Kim, Namho↗

DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Expanding the Baseline: Community Perspectives on Equity in Land-Based Wind Energy Development and Operations

This report covers the fourth and final phase of the Wind Energy Equity Engagement Series (WEEES), a series of community listening sessions on the topic of wind energy equity. In the summer and fall of 2023, a research team at NREL partnered with community-based organizations in three different cities across the U.S. to co-design and co-host the listening sessions. These gatherings were an opportunity for community members to share their past experiences with wind energy development and envision what an equitable wind energy future could look like where they live. The NREL team qualitatively analyzed notes taken during the listening sessions to build an understanding of participants' thoughts and experiences regarding wind energy equity. The team organized the analysis according to key themes that emerged during the first three phases of WEEES, each of which has three or four relevant subthemes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Investigating Local Carrier Dynamics in PERC Patterned CdTe Solar Cells

Remarkable progress has been achieved in CdTe photovoltaics (PVs) to further improve cell performance while reducing manufacturing costs. Researchers optimized the front contact that leads the short-circuit current density (J sc ) over 31mA/cm 2 (e.g., (Zn, Mg)O buffer layer and/or alloying CdTe with Se). Reese et al. reported an open-circuit voltage (V oc ) over 1 V with group-V doped single crystal, showing the feasibility of increasing V oc in CdTe PV that is fixed to less than 900 mV in most cases. Recent studies suggested that the V oc improvement in polycrystalline CdTe PVs requires well-passivated back contact. One possible strategy is to use CdMgTe alloy (E g > 1.8 eV), where the band-gap offset (ΔE CB ≈ 0.2 eV) reflects minority carrier electrons, thereby decreasing surface recombination. Another strategy is to utilize a stable Al 2 O 3 layer as an electron reflector; experimental works confirmed the improved performance with a conformal Al 2 O 3 layer. In this configuration, the precise control of Al 2 O 3 (≈1 nm) over the entire CdTe layer is essential because the J sc greatly depends on the tunneling current. While promising, both CdMgTe and Al 2 O 3 passivation on CdTe introduce unfavorable valence band offset that blocks the hole transport. Kephart et al. proposed a patterned passixc vation layer (≈ 20 nm Al 2 O 3 ) with point contacts (≈ 3 μm in diameter) that extract hole carriers. This configuration is similar to the passive emitter and rear contact (PERC) design that has been extensively studied in Si PVs. While remarkably high carrier lifetime and photoluminescence (> 10 X) were measured, consistent improvement in V oc and efficiency in this CdTe PERC were not yet observed. At this time, it is unclear how the surface potential is distributed in the presence of patterned Al 2 O 3 reflectors and how this additional field impacts the PV performance for Cu-doped and group-V doped CdTe PERC devices. To tackle this challenge, we develop robust nanofabrication and characterization platform to study CdTe PERC devices consisting of a patterned Al 2 O 3 layer on CdSe( 1-x )Te x (Cu-doped, GrV-doped; x = 0 to 1; CST). First Solar supplies high-quality CST materials. The dark and light I-Vs under 1-sun illumination are extracted for a series of each set of devices. We perform quantitative and qualitative PV analysis for a series of Cu-doped and Gr-V doped PERC devices, showing notably different V oc changes for GrV-doped compared to Cu-doped PERC devices. This project attempts to produce individual contacts on single grains and grain boundaries to measure lateral transport. As a model system, we use a CdSe( 1-x )Te x film on glass prepared by a colossal grain growth (CGG) technique at National Renewable Research Laboratories (NREL). Our preliminary results confirm that intergranular transport is hindered by the electrical barrier formed near grain boundaries. The PERC fabrication and the lateral transport measurement platform developed in this project can easily be applied to other types of advanced CdSe( 1-x )Te x architectures to better understand local photocarrier transport, in turn, providing the fundamental knowledge to improve the performance of CdTe PVs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Workforce and Economic Development Considerations from the Operations and Maintenance of Wind Power Plants

As wind capacity in the United States grows, economic opportunities also emerge—supported by the development of the wind workforce, specifically in the operation and maintenance (O&M) phase. Moreover, almost all wind turbines in the United States—about 99%—are located in rural areas (American Wind Energy Association 2018). Communities in these rural areas can anticipate some degree of economic impact from the wind industry. However, the various stakeholders within these communities, such as local businesses and government officials, are not always fully informed of the workforce impacts caused by wind power plants during operational years (Stefek et al. 2019). Although several research studies have focused on workforce and economic impacts of land-based wind facilities (e.g., Tegen et al. 2014; Brown et al. 2012; Halvatzis and Keyser 2013), these studies focused on the quantity of workers and not on O&M workforce interactions with local communities, such as worker commuting and spending patterns. This report is intended to provide stakeholders and community decision makers with qualitative and quantitative information to enable informed decisions that support workforce planning around new wind energy deployment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of correlations among net-charge, net-proton, and net-kaon multiplicity distributions in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV

Correlations among conserved quantum numbers, such as the net-electric charge, the net-baryon, and the net-strangeness in heavy-ion collisions, are crucial for exploring the QCD phase diagram. In this paper, these correlations are investigated using net-proton number (as a proxy for the net-baryon), net-kaon number (for the net-strangeness), and net-charged particle number in Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector. The observed correlations deviate from the Poissonian baseline, with a more pronounced deviation at LHC energies than at RHIC. Theoretical calculations of the Thermal-FIST hadron resonance gas model, HIJING, and EPOS LHC event generators are compared with experimental results, where a significant impact of resonance decays is observed. Thermal-FIST calculations under the grand canonical and canonical ensembles highlight significant differences, underscoring the role of local charge conservation in explaining the data. Recent lattice QCD studies have demonstrated that the magnetic field generated by spectator protons in heavy-ion collisions affects susceptibility ratios, in particular those related to the net-electric charge and the net-baryon numbers. The experimental findings are in qualitative agreement with the expectations of lattice QCD.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative assessment of eddy viscosity rans models for turbulent mixed convection in a differentially heated plane channel

Turbulent mixed convection between two vertical, infinite parallel plates at different temperatures is studied using various two-equation turbulence models. The numerical simulations are performed at a turbulent Reynolds number of Re τ = 150 and a Grashof number of Gr = 9.6 × 10 5 . Comparisons are made against the highly trusted DNS results. Consistent with the DNS approach, the current simulations are performed using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation to predict the influence of buoyancy. Previous studies have provided assessments of two-equation turbulence models for various scenarios, but often rely on a qualitative “eye” test in order to determine the most appropriate model to predict a given flow. This study aims to provide a new form of quantitative assessment that accounts for both the physics captured by the turbulence model as well as the magnitude of the system response quantities (SRQ) using a modified symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE) method. This method is designed to be approachable to researchers at any level and can be applied to system response quantities from multiple research fields. Uncertainty quantification is also performed to determine the discretization error for each turbulence model. Recommendations are made as to which turbulence models best capture the physics – hydrodynamically and thermally – using both local and global validation metrics. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the damping functions used in the most accurate models. This underpins the potential of model developments and adjustments most worth pursuing for buoyant flows. Finally, this framework provides a more physics-based comparative analysis of the selected turbulence models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters: Preprint

Along with a market-competitive levelized cost of energy, a current energy converter technology strongly benefits from an extensive consideration of socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory factors early in the design process. As part of a technology performance level assessment, a series of assessment questions and guidance are developed and presented to evaluate an early-stage current energy technology on holistic criteria considering the entire device lifecycle. The assessment represents an accumulation of industry and research experience to date and relies on regular updates to ensure alignment with industry best-practices, regulatory requirements, and up-to-date technical understanding. A cradle-to-grave (materials, manufacturing, installation and deployment, operations and maintenance, and end-of-life) assessment of capabilities and functional requirements for tidal, river, and ocean current technologies has been completed. This work presents the evaluation questions and qualitative performance criteria for current energy converters deployed in tidal, ocean current, and/or river applications. Key considerations related to manufacturing and installation include supply chain robustness, manufacturability and related job creation in the end-user and/or adjacent communities, and the time-to-repayment of the embodied energy debt. During deployment and maintenance operations, the safety of the device and subsystems during disconnect or grid failure, the difficulty and frequency of offshore heavy-lift activities, the avoidance or mitigation of area use conflicts, the sea-states and weather conditions that permit maintenance access, and the availability of contingency plans (should conditions change unexpectedly) are a portion of the considered assessment criteria. Results include the potential impact of early-stage design decisions on the socioeconomic, environmental, and regulatory performance of a technology that allows developers to increase the product value and probability of success, and minimize costly late-stage design iterations through early and broad consideration of factors affecting overall performance and acceptability.

industry support↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Comprehensive Assessment Tool for Low-TRL Current Energy Converters

converter↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiplicity and net-electric charge fluctuations in central Ar+Sc interactions at 13 A , 19 A , 30 A , 40 A , 75 A , and 150 A GeV/c beam momenta measured by NA61/SHINE at the CERN SPS

This paper presents results on multiplicity fluctuations of positively and negatively charged hadrons as well as net-electric charge fluctuations measured in central Ar+Sc interactions at beam momenta 13 A , 19 A , 30 A , 40 A , 75 A , and 150 A GeV/c. The fluctuation analysis is one of the tools to search for the predicted critical point of strongly interacting matter. Results are corrected for the experimental biases and quantified using cumulant ratios. In most instances, multiplicity and net-charge distributions appear narrower than the corresponding Poisson or Skellam distributions. Cumulant ratios are compared with the EPOS1.99 model predictions, which provide a qualitative description that aligns with observations for positively and negatively charged particles. The obtained results are also compared to earlier NA61/SHINE results from inelastic p+p interactions in the same analysis acceptance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Importance Ranking of Fire Data Parameters to Enhance Fire PRA Model Realism

Fire is historically and analytically a significant contributor to nuclear power plant risk. The level of fire risk and the methods, tools and data for modeling this risk is highly debated by experts. One area of debate is the input data used in fire modeling and how to deal with this data’s high uncertainty. This report outlines initial work performed for determining the key parameters causing this uncertainty and how it propagates into nuclear power plant models. This research paves the way for the development of methods to reduce fire data uncertainty used in modeling. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has mandated that nuclear power plants perform fire risk modeling. However, there are several issues with the current risk modeling implementation that affect the results. Approved modeling methods can be overly conservative and often do not match plant experience. Also, the data used in the modeling can have high uncertainties and is influenced by expert judgement. To evaluate input data uncertainty, researchers performed an initial review of several fire experiments done at Sandia National Laboratories. Uncertainties for fire data can come from many sources, such as experiment design constraints, environmental conditions, or other plant-specific aspects. There are many different significant and insignificant parameters driving the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty of the different input data used in the fire modeling could have a significant or insignificant effect on the entire plant risk. A four-step methodology was developed to perform Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Ranking. A demonstration case using these steps was set up and three of the four steps were completed in fiscal year (FY) 2019 and the fourth step done FY 2020. These steps are: 1. The qualitative analysis of potential sources was conducted with the following items identified for the demonstration. • Maximum heat release rate • Time to maximum heat release rate • Duration of max heat release rate • Time to decay • Thermal conductivity of concrete • Specific heat of concrete • Density of concrete • Cable jacket thickness 2. A quantitative characterization of dominant sources of uncertainty was performed. A list of distributions and determined values of the dominant sources is shown in Appendix A. 3. A quantitative screening of the potential sources of uncertainty using Morris Elementary Effects Analysis was completed. An experimental model using the physics-based fire modeling tool Fire Dynamics Simulator was developed and coupled with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment. The Morris analysis identified at least two parameters that can be eliminated as significant contributors (specific heat of concrete and cable jacket thickness). 4. Global importance measure (Global IM) analysis to generate a comprehensive ranking based on their influence on the plant risk. In this research, a moment-independent Global IM is used since it can address (a) uncertainty in the input parameters of the fire model, (b) uncertainty in the risk outputs, and (c) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters in the fire model, more accurately than the correlation-based and variance-based global methods. The observations from the research showed that, depending on the initial and boundary conditions of the fire scenarios, fire-induced damage could have a very small probability and could be dominated by the tail of the uncertainty distribution; hence, the accuracy of the correlation-based and variance-based methods is questionable. The moment-independent Global IM analysis in this research provides a better understanding of how experimental uncertainty data affects industry’s plant models and where improvements in that data will have the largest benefit for improving fire modeling accuracy in causing core damage. Among the five unscreened parameters obtained from the Morris EE analysis, the Global IM analysis results for the case study indicated that max heat release rate and fire location are the most important parameters. The report also outlines benefits of using a unified computational platform that integrates the underlying simulations (e.g., a fire progression model), quantitative screening (using the Morris EE method), and the Global IM analysis. A unified platform can (i) facilitate the ranking of input parameters considering multiple key fire scenarios simultaneously, rather than considering one scenario at a time, (ii) contribute to more explicit and accurate treatment of dependencies at multiple levels of Fire PRA, (iii) facilitate the sampling-based uncertainty quantification for Fire PRA, and (iv) help generating both “industry-wide” and "plant-specific" ranking of uncertainty sources in Fire PRA. Future research should be done to include additional parameters such as detection/suppression or cable fire spread. Adding a PRA software such as SAPHIRE to the RAVEN platform would help with plant model integration and improve treatment of fire-induced dependency. The I-PRA risk importance ranking methodology offered in this report can provide valuable information for efficiently (a) enhancing the realism of Fire PRA for existing plants and (b) supporting the development of Dynamic Fire PRA for advanced reactors and new plants.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗