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At least 127 records · Page 7

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗

Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO 2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr –1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm –1 ) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm –1 ), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (–45.1 ± 50.6 PgC °C –1 ) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (–17.2 ± 5.0 PgC °C –1 ). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 °C EgC –1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 °C EgC –1 ) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of the Gaussian Wind Farm Model with Historical Data of Three Offshore Wind Farms

A recent expert elicitation showed that model validation remains one of the largest barriers for commercial wind farm control deployment. The Gaussian-shaped wake deficit model has grown in popularity in wind farm field experiments, yet its validation for larger farms and throughout annual operation remains limited. This article addresses this scientific gap, providing a model comparison of the Gaussian wind farm model with historical data of three offshore wind farms. The energy ratio is used to quantify the model’s accuracy. We assume a fixed turbulence intensity of $I_∞$ = 6% and a standard deviation on the inflow wind direction of $σ_{wd}$ = 3° in our Gaussian model. First, we demonstrate the non-uniqueness issue of $I_∞$ and $σ_{wd}$, which display a waterbed effect when considering the energy ratios. Second, we show excellent agreement between the Gaussian model and historical data for most wind directions in the Offshore Windpark Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ) and Westermost Rough wind farms (36 and 35 wind turbines, respectively) and wind turbines on the outer edges of the Anholt wind farm (110 turbines). Turbines centrally positioned in the Anholt wind farm show larger model discrepancies, likely due to deep-array effects that are not captured in the model. A second source of discrepancy is hypothesized to be inflow heterogeneity. In future work, the Gaussian wind farm model will be adapted to address those weaknesses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Further comparison of wind tunnel and airplane acoustic data for advanced design high speed propeller models

Comparisons were made between the SR-2 and SR-3 model propeller noise data taken in the NASA 8-by-6 wind tunnel, in the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) anechoic tunnel, and with boom and fuselage microphones on the NASA Jetstar airplane. Plots of peak blade passage tone noise versus helical tip Mach number generally showed good agreement. The levels of the airplane fuselage data were somewhat lower than the boom data by an approximately uniform value. The curve shapes were similar except for the UTRC data which was flatter than the other sets. This was attributed to the UTRC data being taken at constant power while the other data were taken at constant advance ratio. General curves of the peak blade passage tone versus helical tip Mach number fit through all the data are also presented. Directivity shape comparisons at the cruise condition were similar for the airplane and 8-by-6 tunnel data. The UTRC data peaked farther forward but, when an angle correction was made for the different axial Mach number used in the UTRC tests, the shape was similar to the others. The general agreement of the data from the four configurations enables the formation of a good consensus of the noise from these propellers.

Dittmar, J. H.↗

SWCX Emission from the Helium Focusing Cone - Model to Data Comparison

A model for heliospheric solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) X-ray emission is applied to a series of XMM-Newton observations of the interplanetary focusing cone of interstellar helium. The X-ray data are from three coupled observations of the South Ecliptic Pole (SEP, to observe the cone) and the Hubble Deep Field-North (HDFN. to monitor global variations of the SWCX emission due to variations in the solar wind) from the period 24 November to 15 December 2003. There is good qualitative agreement between the model predictions and thc data with the maximum SWCX flux observed at an ecliptic longitude of approx. 72deg, consistent with the central longitude of the He cone. We observe a total excess of 2.1 +/- 1.3 LU in the O VII line and 2.0 +/- 0.9 LU in the 0 VIII line. However. the SWCX emission model, which was adjusted for solar wind conditions appropriate for late 2003, predicts an excess from the He cone of only 0.5 LU and 0.2 LU, respectively, in the O VII and O VIII lines. We discuss thc model to data comparison and provide possible explanations for the discrepancies. We also qualitatively reexamine our SWCX n~ocicl predictions in the 1/4 keV band with data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards the North and South Ecliptic Poles, when the He cone was probably first detected in soft X-rays.

Koutroumpa, D.↗

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗

Comparison of Modeled to Measured Spectra using MCNP and GADRAS to Benchmark and Contrast Modeling Limitations

The desire to improve nuclear material detection through portal monitors and other low resolution detectors has led to interest in benchmarking the performance of radiation transport codes. These codes can be used to generate a variety and quantity of spectra that may be cost prohibitive to measure directly. Particular characteristics of typical detection scenarios were isolated to compare the performance of radiation transport codes to laboratory experiments. These benchmark experiments were performed to validate simulations in a number of key areas. These experiments included high areal density configurations in both one- and three-dimensional configurations. In addition, off-angle measurements were conducted to investigate the impact of detector response assumptions on complex geometries, for example where an unknown source is not physically collocated with an apparent hot spot. Furthermore, by examining both simple shielding and backscatter configurations, isolation of the scatter emanating from the object and environmental background scatter contributions to the spectra could be elucidated. A series of experiments were performed in which the order of shielding layers and the thickness were evaluated to examine the ability of the simulations to address these variables. Experiments with increasing thickness of polyethylene around a neutron source also allows for examinations of the ability of the transport simulations to properly model n,γ reactions. Finally, depleted uranium (DU) measurements have more complicated spectra than the cobalt-60 and consequently allow for investigations into the ability of transport simulations to model self-shielding. In each case, the results of the experiments were compared to MCNP simulations to judge the performance of the code, as was done previously with GADRAS 18.7.9 simulations [7]. All of the benchmark measurements were taken with a liquid nitrogen cooled 140% high purity germanium (HPGe) detector with a bismuth collimator that had the front tin filter removed. The measurement location and detector configuration were subsequently used for all experimental configurations. The remainder of this report details the experimental measurements, Section 2 and the MCNP model, Section 3. Comparisons between the experimental results and MCNP-generated spectra are performed, Section 4. Section 5 compares the results obtained with MCNP with the previously reported results obtained with GADRAS [2]. Finally, Section 6 presents the conclusions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

International Space Station Centrifuge Rotor Models A Comparison of the Euler-Lagrange and the Bond Graph Modeling Approach

The assembly and operation of the International Space Station (ISS) require extensive testing and engineering analysis to verify that the Space Station system of systems would work together without any adverse interactions. Since the dynamic behavior of an entire Space Station cannot be tested on earth, math models of the Space Station structures and mechanical systems have to be built and integrated in computer simulations and analysis tools to analyze and predict what will happen in space. The ISS Centrifuge Rotor (CR) is one of many mechanical systems that need to be modeled and analyzed to verify the ISS integrated system performance on-orbit. This study investigates using Bond Graph modeling techniques as quick and simplified ways to generate models of the ISS Centrifuge Rotor. This paper outlines the steps used to generate simple and more complex models of the CR using Bond Graph Computer Aided Modeling Program with Graphical Input (CAMP-G). Comparisons of the Bond Graph CR models with those derived from Euler-Lagrange equations in MATLAB and those developed using multibody dynamic simulation at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the Bond Graph modeling approach for aeronautics and space applications.

Nguyen, Louis H.↗

Ares 1X Hybrid Modeling with Comparisons to Flight Data

This slide presentation reviews the Ares 1X test flight and compares the resultant flight data with the results of modeled data from siumulations of the flight. It includes: (1) Ares 1X Flight Summary, (2) Ares 1X Data Summary (3) Model Descriptions (4) Model Comparisons to Flight Data in three areas: (a) Liftoff, (b) Transonic and (c) Roll Control Firings (RCS) Firings.

Niedermaier, Dan↗

HIFOGS: Its design, operations and calibration

The High-efficiency, Infrared Faint Object Grating Spectrometer (HIFOGS) provides spectral coverage of selectable portions of the 3 to 18 micron range at resolving powers from 00 to 1000 using 120 Si/Bi detectors. Additional coverage to 30 microns is provided by a bank of 32 Si:P detectors. Selectable apertures, gratings and band-pass filters provide flexibility to this system. Software for operation of HIFOGS and reduction of the data runs on a MacIntosh computer. HIFOGS has been used to establish celestial flux standards using 3 independent approaches: comparison to star models, comparisons to asteroid models and comparisons to laboratory blackbodies. These standards are expected to have wide application in astronomical thermal-infrared spectroscopy.

Witteborn, Fred C.↗

Tone excited jets. V - A theoretical model and comparison with experiment

A mathematical model of tone-excited jets is developed which consists of two major components: a mathematical description of the process by which the intrinsic instability waves of the jet are excited by the upstream tones; and the modeling of the nonlinear interaction between the mean flow of the jet, the excited large-scale instability waves or turbulence structure, and the fine scale turbulence. It is assumed that each of these jet flow components can be characterized by a few parameters, which are then related by conservation equations that are supplemented by closure models. This quasi-linear model's results are compared with experimental measurements, and good agreement is obtained over a wide range of excitation frequencies and excitation levels.

Tam, C. K. W.↗

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Parksinson, Claire↗

Enabler 1 and 2 engine system design modeling and comparisons

Viewgraphs on Enabler 1 and 2 engine system design modeling and comparisons are presented. The objective of this research was to define a near-term solid-core nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) engine system scaling database. A unified set of performance, weight, and size scaling data are identified and documented. Results should be useful to meet initial mission and concept design study requirements.

Pelaccio, Dennis G.↗

Cirrus Cloud Modeling: Overview and Issues

A review of cirrus cloud modeling will be given with special attention to the role of dynamical processes in regulating cloud microphysical properties and the interactions with radiative process in determining cloud lifecycle. The talk will draw heavily on the papers by Starr and Quante, Quante and Starr and Demoz et al., as well as recent results from the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison and Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison projects, as described in Starr et al. and Lin et al. Key issues in current cirrus cloud modeling will be described and discussed.

Starr, David OC.↗