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DOE OSTI · 3020045

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Jaiswal, Sunil [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)] (ORCID:0000000284090191)·Shen, Chun [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States)] (ORCID:0000000266774784)·Furnstahl, Richard J. [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)] (ORCID:000000023483333X)·Heinz, Ulrich [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)] (ORCID:0000000339417789)·Pratola, Matthew T. [Indiana University, Bloomington, IN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000341462861)
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Abstract

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

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Bayesian methodsQuark-gluon plasmaRelativistic heavy-ion collisionsStatistical methods

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Jaiswal, Sunil [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)] (ORCID:0000000284090191), Shen, Chun [Wayne State University, Detroit, MI (United States)] (ORCID:0000000266774784), Furnstahl, Richard J. [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)] (ORCID:000000023483333X), Heinz, Ulrich [The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH (United States)] (ORCID:0000000339417789), Pratola, Matthew T. [Indiana University, Bloomington, IN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000341462861). 2025-10-14. Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physletb.2025.139946

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