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At least 127 records · Page 7

Comparison of the Gaussian Wind Farm Model with Historical Data of Three Offshore Wind Farms

A recent expert elicitation showed that model validation remains one of the largest barriers for commercial wind farm control deployment. The Gaussian-shaped wake deficit model has grown in popularity in wind farm field experiments, yet its validation for larger farms and throughout annual operation remains limited. This article addresses this scientific gap, providing a model comparison of the Gaussian wind farm model with historical data of three offshore wind farms. The energy ratio is used to quantify the model’s accuracy. We assume a fixed turbulence intensity of $I_∞$ = 6% and a standard deviation on the inflow wind direction of $σ_{wd}$ = 3° in our Gaussian model. First, we demonstrate the non-uniqueness issue of $I_∞$ and $σ_{wd}$, which display a waterbed effect when considering the energy ratios. Second, we show excellent agreement between the Gaussian model and historical data for most wind directions in the Offshore Windpark Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ) and Westermost Rough wind farms (36 and 35 wind turbines, respectively) and wind turbines on the outer edges of the Anholt wind farm (110 turbines). Turbines centrally positioned in the Anholt wind farm show larger model discrepancies, likely due to deep-array effects that are not captured in the model. A second source of discrepancy is hypothesized to be inflow heterogeneity. In future work, the Gaussian wind farm model will be adapted to address those weaknesses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Further comparison of wind tunnel and airplane acoustic data for advanced design high speed propeller models

Comparisons were made between the SR-2 and SR-3 model propeller noise data taken in the NASA 8-by-6 wind tunnel, in the United Technologies Research Center (UTRC) anechoic tunnel, and with boom and fuselage microphones on the NASA Jetstar airplane. Plots of peak blade passage tone noise versus helical tip Mach number generally showed good agreement. The levels of the airplane fuselage data were somewhat lower than the boom data by an approximately uniform value. The curve shapes were similar except for the UTRC data which was flatter than the other sets. This was attributed to the UTRC data being taken at constant power while the other data were taken at constant advance ratio. General curves of the peak blade passage tone versus helical tip Mach number fit through all the data are also presented. Directivity shape comparisons at the cruise condition were similar for the airplane and 8-by-6 tunnel data. The UTRC data peaked farther forward but, when an angle correction was made for the different axial Mach number used in the UTRC tests, the shape was similar to the others. The general agreement of the data from the four configurations enables the formation of a good consensus of the noise from these propellers.

Dittmar, J. H.↗

SWCX Emission from the Helium Focusing Cone - Model to Data Comparison

A model for heliospheric solar wind charge exchange (SWCX) X-ray emission is applied to a series of XMM-Newton observations of the interplanetary focusing cone of interstellar helium. The X-ray data are from three coupled observations of the South Ecliptic Pole (SEP, to observe the cone) and the Hubble Deep Field-North (HDFN. to monitor global variations of the SWCX emission due to variations in the solar wind) from the period 24 November to 15 December 2003. There is good qualitative agreement between the model predictions and thc data with the maximum SWCX flux observed at an ecliptic longitude of approx. 72deg, consistent with the central longitude of the He cone. We observe a total excess of 2.1 +/- 1.3 LU in the O VII line and 2.0 +/- 0.9 LU in the 0 VIII line. However. the SWCX emission model, which was adjusted for solar wind conditions appropriate for late 2003, predicts an excess from the He cone of only 0.5 LU and 0.2 LU, respectively, in the O VII and O VIII lines. We discuss thc model to data comparison and provide possible explanations for the discrepancies. We also qualitatively reexamine our SWCX n~ocicl predictions in the 1/4 keV band with data from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey towards the North and South Ecliptic Poles, when the He cone was probably first detected in soft X-rays.

Koutroumpa, D.↗

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗

International Space Station Centrifuge Rotor Models A Comparison of the Euler-Lagrange and the Bond Graph Modeling Approach

The assembly and operation of the International Space Station (ISS) require extensive testing and engineering analysis to verify that the Space Station system of systems would work together without any adverse interactions. Since the dynamic behavior of an entire Space Station cannot be tested on earth, math models of the Space Station structures and mechanical systems have to be built and integrated in computer simulations and analysis tools to analyze and predict what will happen in space. The ISS Centrifuge Rotor (CR) is one of many mechanical systems that need to be modeled and analyzed to verify the ISS integrated system performance on-orbit. This study investigates using Bond Graph modeling techniques as quick and simplified ways to generate models of the ISS Centrifuge Rotor. This paper outlines the steps used to generate simple and more complex models of the CR using Bond Graph Computer Aided Modeling Program with Graphical Input (CAMP-G). Comparisons of the Bond Graph CR models with those derived from Euler-Lagrange equations in MATLAB and those developed using multibody dynamic simulation at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the Bond Graph modeling approach for aeronautics and space applications.

Nguyen, Louis H.↗

Ares 1X Hybrid Modeling with Comparisons to Flight Data

This slide presentation reviews the Ares 1X test flight and compares the resultant flight data with the results of modeled data from siumulations of the flight. It includes: (1) Ares 1X Flight Summary, (2) Ares 1X Data Summary (3) Model Descriptions (4) Model Comparisons to Flight Data in three areas: (a) Liftoff, (b) Transonic and (c) Roll Control Firings (RCS) Firings.

Niedermaier, Dan↗

HIFOGS: Its design, operations and calibration

The High-efficiency, Infrared Faint Object Grating Spectrometer (HIFOGS) provides spectral coverage of selectable portions of the 3 to 18 micron range at resolving powers from 00 to 1000 using 120 Si/Bi detectors. Additional coverage to 30 microns is provided by a bank of 32 Si:P detectors. Selectable apertures, gratings and band-pass filters provide flexibility to this system. Software for operation of HIFOGS and reduction of the data runs on a MacIntosh computer. HIFOGS has been used to establish celestial flux standards using 3 independent approaches: comparison to star models, comparisons to asteroid models and comparisons to laboratory blackbodies. These standards are expected to have wide application in astronomical thermal-infrared spectroscopy.

Witteborn, Fred C.↗

Tone excited jets. V - A theoretical model and comparison with experiment

A mathematical model of tone-excited jets is developed which consists of two major components: a mathematical description of the process by which the intrinsic instability waves of the jet are excited by the upstream tones; and the modeling of the nonlinear interaction between the mean flow of the jet, the excited large-scale instability waves or turbulence structure, and the fine scale turbulence. It is assumed that each of these jet flow components can be characterized by a few parameters, which are then related by conservation equations that are supplemented by closure models. This quasi-linear model's results are compared with experimental measurements, and good agreement is obtained over a wide range of excitation frequencies and excitation levels.

Tam, C. K. W.↗

Evaluation of the Simulation of Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Coverages by Eleven Major Global Climate Models

Comparison of polar sea ice results from 11 major global climate models and satellite-derived observations for 1979-2004 reveals that each of the models is simulating seasonal cycles that are phased at least approximately correctly in both hemispheres. Each is also simulating various key aspects of the observed ice cover distributions, such as winter ice not only throughout the central Arctic basin but also throughout Hudson Bay, despite its relatively low latitudes. However, some of the models simulate too much ice, others too little ice (in some cases varying depending on hemisphere and/or season), and some match the observations better in one season versus another. Several models do noticeably better in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, and one does noticeably better in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere all simulate monthly average ice extents to within +/-5.1 x 10(exp 6)sq km of the observed ice extent throughout the year; and in the Southern Hemisphere all except one simulate the monthly averages to within +/-6.3 x 10(exp 6) sq km of the observed values. All the models properly simulate a lack of winter ice to the west of Norway; however, most do not obtain as much absence of ice immediately north of Norway as the observations show, suggesting an under simulation of the North Atlantic Current. The spread in monthly averaged ice extents amongst the 11 model simulations is greater in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and greatest in the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring.

Parksinson, Claire↗

Enabler 1 and 2 engine system design modeling and comparisons

Viewgraphs on Enabler 1 and 2 engine system design modeling and comparisons are presented. The objective of this research was to define a near-term solid-core nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) engine system scaling database. A unified set of performance, weight, and size scaling data are identified and documented. Results should be useful to meet initial mission and concept design study requirements.

Pelaccio, Dennis G.↗

Cirrus Cloud Modeling: Overview and Issues

A review of cirrus cloud modeling will be given with special attention to the role of dynamical processes in regulating cloud microphysical properties and the interactions with radiative process in determining cloud lifecycle. The talk will draw heavily on the papers by Starr and Quante, Quante and Starr and Demoz et al., as well as recent results from the GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) Working Group on Cirrus Cloud Systems (WG2) Idealized Cirrus Model Comparison and Cirrus Parcel Model Comparison projects, as described in Starr et al. and Lin et al. Key issues in current cirrus cloud modeling will be described and discussed.

Starr, David OC.↗

Online Simulations of Global Aerosol Distributions in the NASA GEOS-4 Model and Comparisons to Satellite and Ground-Based Aerosol Optical Depth

We have implemented a module for tropospheric aerosols (GO CART) online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 model and simulated global aerosol distributions for the period 2000-2006. The new online system offers several advantages over the previous offline version, providing a platform for aerosol data assimilation, aerosol-chemistry-climate interaction studies, and short-range chemical weather forecasting and climate prediction. We introduce as well a methodology for sampling model output consistently with satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrievals to facilitate model-satellite comparison. Our results are similar to the offline GOCART model and to the models participating in the AeroCom intercomparison. The simulated AOT has similar seasonal and regional variability and magnitude to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer observations. The model AOT and Angstrom parameter are consistently low relative to AERONET in biomass-burning-dominated regions, where emissions appear to be underestimated, consistent with the results of the offline GOCART model. In contrast, the model AOT is biased high in sulfate-dominated regions of North America and Europe. Our model-satellite comparison methodology shows that diurnal variability in aerosol loading is unimportant compared to sampling the model where the satellite has cloud-free observations, particularly in sulfate-dominated regions. Simulated sea salt burden and optical thickness are high by a factor of 2-3 relative to other models, and agreement between model and satellite over-ocean AOT is improved by reducing the model sea salt burden by a factor of 2. The best agreement in both AOT magnitude and variability occurs immediately downwind of the Saharan dust plume.

Colarco, Peter↗

Challenges in the detection of gases in exoplanet atmospheres

Claims of detections of gases in exoplanet atmospheres often rely on comparisons between models including and excluding specific chemical species. However, the space of molecular combinations available for model construction is vast and highly degenerate. Only a limited subset of these combinations is typically explored for any given detection. As a result, apparent detections of trace gases risk being artefacts of incomplete modelling rather than robust identification of atmospheric constituents, especially in the low-signal-to-noise regime. Here, using the sub-Neptune K2-18 b as a case study, we show that recent biosignature claims vanish when the model space is expanded, with numerous alternatives providing equally good or better fits. We demonstrate that the significance of a claimed detection relies on the choice of models being compared, and that model preference does not in itself imply the presence of a specific gas. In conclusion, we recommend treating model comparisons instead as relative adequacy tests, which should be supported by theoretical predictions and complementary metrics of statistical significance to attribute a signal to a particular gas.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Taweret: a Python package for Bayesian model mixing

Uncertainty quantification using Bayesian methods is a growing area of research. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a recent development which combines the predictions from multiple models such that the fidelity of each model is preserved in the final result. Practical tools and analysis suites that facilitate such methods are therefore needed. Taweret introduces BMM to existing Bayesian uncertainty quantification efforts. Currently, Taweret contains three individual Bayesian model mixing techniques, each pertaining to a different type of problem structure; we encourage the future inclusion of user-developed mixing methods. Taweret’s first use case is in nuclear physics, but the package has been structured such that it should be adaptable to any research engaged in model comparison or model mixing.

Ingles, Kevin↗

Laboratory modeling and analysis of aircraft-lightning interactions

Modeling studies of the interaction of a delta wing aircraft with direct lightning strikes were carried out using an approximate scale model of an F-106B. The model, which is three feet in length, is subjected to direct injection of fast current pulses supplied by wires, which simulate the lightning channel and are attached at various locations on the model. Measurements are made of the resulting transient electromagnetic fields using time derivative sensors. The sensor outputs are sampled and digitized by computer. The noise level is reduced by averaging the sensor output from ten input pulses at each sample time. Computer analysis of the measured fields includes Fourier transformation and the computation of transfer functions for the model. Prony analysis is also used to determine the natural frequencies of the model. Comparisons of model natural frequencies extracted by Prony analysis with those for in flight direct strike data usually show lower damping in the in flight case. This is indicative of either a lightning channel with a higher impedance than the wires on the model, only one attachment point, or short streamers instead of a long channel.

Turner, C. D.↗